View Full Version : Scary: Flu may kill 150 Million, UN Warns
:eek:
A global flu pandemic could kill as many as 150 million people if the world fails to prepare for an expected mutation of the bird flu virus enabling it to spread from human to human, the United Nations said on Thursday.
Dr. David Nabarro of the Geneva-based World Health Organization said U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan has asked him to head up a worldwide drive to contain the current bird flu pandemic and prepare for its possible jump to humans.
If the virus spreads among humans, the quality of the world response will determine whether it ends up killing 5 million or as many as 150 million, Nabarro told a news conference.
The last flu pandemic, which broke out in 1918 at the end of World War One, killed more than 40 million people and drove home the vulnerability of a world where borders had less and less meaning, he said.
It seems very likely the H5N1 bird flu virus will soon change into a variant able to be transmitted among humans and it would be a big mistake to ignore that danger, he warned.
"I am almost certain there will be another pandemic soon," Nabarro said.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1171378
Roland98
10-01-2005, 06:41 AM
A global flu pandemic could kill as many as 150 million people if the world fails to prepare for an expected mutation of the bird flu virus enabling it to spread from human to human, the United Nations said on Thursday.
It could also be overtaken by another strain, and end up doing nothing at all.
"I am almost certain there will be another pandemic soon," Nabarro said.
Those kinds of predictions really irk me. Reality is bad enough; IMO there's no need for that kind of speculation. And, "soon" means different things to different people. Too often, people will latch onto a comment like that and assume he means "imminent danger." Maybe, maybe not--we just don't know yet.
The facts:
-influenza pandemics occur fairly regularly. It is pretty much certain we will experience another one at some point, and from the historical data over the last 2 centuries or so, it seems we're "overdue" for one.
-H5N1 is a nasty virus, and certainly has the capacity to kill humans. But in all likelihood, the current mortality estimates are artificially high. I discussed this a bit on Panda's thumb (http://www.pandasthumb.org/archives/2005/09/h5n1_influenza.html) a couple weeks ago.
Related to this, next week is pandemic flu awareness week. (http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Main.PFAW) I'll be writing a series of articles on flu for PT and my blog. (http://aetiology.blogspot.com/) I can link them over here if anyone's interested.
viscousmemories
10-01-2005, 06:55 AM
Why didn't I know you have a blog? :glare:
Roland98
10-01-2005, 06:56 AM
Why didn't I know you have a blog? :glare:
Cause it's about a week old, probably. :D I always run across cool infectious disease stuff, but I hate to spam PT with it 'cause people get bored, and they don't seem to generate much interest in forums. So I figured there I can just talk to myself about it. :)
viscousmemories
10-01-2005, 07:06 AM
I see it's for talk of grown up things like diseases and stuff. Not a perfect fit for a guy who can't stop giggling at the fact that the immunologist Dr. Wank found a connection between chlamydia and schizophrenia. :giggle:
Roland98
10-01-2005, 07:09 AM
I see it's for talk of grown up things like diseases and stuff. Not a perfect fit for a guy who can't stop giggling at the fact that the immunologist Dr. Wank found a connection between chlamydia and schizophrenia. :giggle:
Heh. :) Yeah, I hadn't even noticed that. See, you can play games with it and point out stuff like that! Yeah, that's the ticket...
viscousmemories
10-01-2005, 07:20 AM
Oh I'll definitely pop in from time to time to see what you're talking to yourself about. It really is fascinating stuff when I understand it. :)
my blog. (http://aetiology.blogspot.com/)It's pink! :storkgirl: :beloved:
I can link them over here if anyone's interested.Yes please
Regular Flu kills, it's just another one to add to the list.
I remember in 1999 or 2000 hospitals here having to use freezer lorries hired from frozen food manufacturers such as Birdseye just to store the bodies one winter :frozen:
Petra
10-01-2005, 10:04 PM
I just read that it has jumped the whatsit and is a thingy that can now affect humans.
I just read that it has jumped the whatsit and is a thingy that can now affect humans.Congratulations! You are now qualified to work for the Bush administration.
Roland98
10-03-2005, 03:32 PM
I just read that it has jumped the whatsit and is a thingy that can now affect humans.
We've known it can infect humans since at least 1997; what it doesn't seem to be able to do (yet) is be efficiently transmitted between us.
Roland98
10-03-2005, 05:43 PM
my blog. (http://aetiology.blogspot.com/)It's pink! :storkgirl: :beloved:
I know. Doing the girly thing for now. :)
I can link them over here if anyone's interested.Yes please
Today's installment: (http://aetiology.blogspot.com/2005/10/pandemic-influenza-awareness-week-day.html) History of pandemic flu.
TomJoe
10-03-2005, 10:00 PM
"I am almost certain there will be another pandemic soon," Nabarro said.
Those kinds of predictions really irk me. Reality is bad enough; IMO there's no need for that kind of speculation.
I always assume that that means "I need more money to do my research, give it to me or else when really bad things happen (if they do) I can say 'I told you so.'."
Trojan
10-04-2005, 04:12 AM
The October National Geographic has a great cover story on the southeast Asian avian flu. Many poultry farmers skirt new regulations and health procedures by insisting all the diseased birds are migratory, causing a rise in mass wild bird killings from southeast China to Indonesia. They claim they can't lock down the skies. The flu is most likely a result of farming birds in filthy conditions, inbreeding of the birds and lack of refrigeration. Some scientists believe Asians are more prone to contracting the worst of the flus. Interesting article.
Roland98
10-04-2005, 05:59 PM
I always assume that that means "I need more money to do my research, give it to me or else when really bad things happen (if they do) I can say 'I told you so.'."
Heh. Yeah, well, that's why they should be confined to grant applications. ;) The reviewers should already know that everyone out there is studying the worst pathogens/diseases/etc. known to man, and should be immune to all that gloom 'n' doom.
The October National Geographic has a great cover story on the southeast Asian avian flu. Many poultry farmers skirt new regulations and health procedures by insisting all the diseased birds are migratory, causing a rise in mass wild bird killings from southeast China to Indonesia. They claim they can't lock down the skies. The flu is most likely a result of farming birds in filthy conditions, inbreeding of the birds and lack of refrigeration. Some scientists believe Asians are more prone to contracting the worst of the flus. Interesting article.
Thanks for the tip! I hope they're not limiting those conclusions to Asia, though. There have been avian flu outbreaks in America and Europe as well.
Today's post, Our adventures with avian flu. (http://aetiology.blogspot.com/2005/10/pandemic-influenza-awareness-week-day_04.html)
Shake
10-04-2005, 08:34 PM
We've known it can infect humans since at least 1997; what it doesn't seem to be able to do (yet) is be efficiently transmitted between us.
Slightly off-topic but, I wonder how people can accept that things like the flu can mutate yet still deny evolution. :huh:
Anyway, fascinating topic, Roland. 150 million seems like a lot until you consider that there are over 6 billion people on the planet. Also, when you think about it, the majority of that kind of a total would likely come from 3rd world countries too poor to be able to adequately defend their populations against such an outbreak. I'm not saying that the industrialized nations would be immune, but I'd bet deaths/1,000 people would be lower in places like the US and Europe.
I know. Doing the girly thing for now. :)
Everything the men have to do, but also in pink?
Roland98
10-05-2005, 02:57 AM
We've known it can infect humans since at least 1997; what it doesn't seem to be able to do (yet) is be efficiently transmitted between us.
Slightly off-topic but, I wonder how people can accept that things like the flu can mutate yet still deny evolution. :huh:
They trot out the "it's just microevolution" canard. "But it didn't evolve into a fruitfly!" or whatever--evolution within the "kind" is accepted even by YECs.
Anyway, fascinating topic, Roland. 150 million seems like a lot until you consider that there are over 6 billion people on the planet.
Right, but that's still a 2.5% mortality rate. Everyday flu is only a fraction of 1%. And considering that in a typical year, only 15 million die from all infectious disease causes (including TB, malaria, AIDS, influenza, etc.), that 150 million number looks pretty staggering.
Also, when you think about it, the majority of that kind of a total would likely come from 3rd world countries too poor to be able to adequately defend their populations against such an outbreak. I'm not saying that the industrialized nations would be immune, but I'd bet deaths/1,000 people would be lower in places like the US and Europe.
Oh, certainly. We'd have access to antibiotics to treat secondary infections, and ventilators to keep our lungs pumping when we can't do it ourselves (though there are problems with that...you'll see Thursday. ;) ) Still, underdeveloped countries would definitely bear the brunt of the pandemic. That's one reason why the numbers for the 1918 pandemic are now generally agreed upon to be at least 50-100 million rather than the 20-40 million that used to be cited: the earlier estimates were based on death rates in the US and Europe, which were much lower than in, say, India or Zaire.
Roland98
10-05-2005, 02:58 AM
I know. Doing the girly thing for now. :)
Everything the men have to do, but also in pink?
You got it, baby. :D Next I'm going to start decorating the department lounge with something nice and flowery...
Roland98
10-05-2005, 09:21 AM
Today's topic: Challenges to pandemic preparedness (http://aetiology.blogspot.com/2005/10/pandemic-influenza-awarene_112849483751746187.html)
Shake
10-05-2005, 07:33 PM
We've known it can infect humans since at least 1997; what it doesn't seem to be able to do (yet) is be efficiently transmitted between us.
Slightly off-topic but, I wonder how people can accept that things like the flu can mutate yet still deny evolution. :huh:
They trot out the "it's just microevolution" canard. "But it didn't evolve into a fruitfly!" or whatever--evolution within the "kind" is accepted even by YECs.
Yeah, sorry for the pseudo-derail again, but I just got my copy of AP (http://www.altpress.com) yesterday and they were doing a piece on "Christian" rockers, and in one interview, one artist pulls out the old, "if we evolved from monkeys, then how come there are still monkeys?" line. :whup:
TomJoe
10-05-2005, 07:57 PM
... in one interview, one artist pulls out the old, "if we evolved from monkeys, then how come there are still monkeys?" line.
Stupid people shouldn't breed.
Crumb
10-05-2005, 08:41 PM
Stupid people shouldn't breathe.
Just correcting your typo TomJoe. :wink:
Ymir's blood
10-05-2005, 10:38 PM
and in one interview, one artist pulls out the old, "if we evolved from monkeys, then how come there are still monkeys?" line. :whup:
Because Christian Rock sells, obviously.
alphamale
10-06-2005, 03:26 AM
[quote]A global flu pandemic could kill as many as 150 million people if the world fails to prepare for an expected mutation of the bird flu virus enabling it to spread from human to human, the United Nations said on Thursday.
Another reason to get control of the borders.
Dingfod
10-06-2005, 01:49 PM
Right, but that's still a 2.5% mortality rate. Everyday flu is only a fraction of 1%. And considering that in a typical year, only 15 million die from all infectious disease causes (including TB, malaria, AIDS, influenza, etc.), that 150 million number looks pretty staggering.Isn't the avian flu mortality rate close to 50% of those infected?
Roland98
10-06-2005, 03:57 PM
Right, but that's still a 2.5% mortality rate. Everyday flu is only a fraction of 1%. And considering that in a typical year, only 15 million die from all infectious disease causes (including TB, malaria, AIDS, influenza, etc.), that 150 million number looks pretty staggering.Isn't the avian flu mortality rate close to 50% of those infected?
It's ~50% of the cases we know of, which are the people who are sickest and most likely to go to the hospital (and hence, be diagnosed with H5N1). So, those numbers are highly biased. No flu pandemic in history has had that kind of mortality. It's very likely we're missing a lot of mild and sub-clinical cases. And since there are only ~120 cases known to date, it wouldn't take a lot of mild cases to bring that mortality number down pretty drastically.
Today's topic: (http://aetiology.blogspot.com/2005/10/pandemic-influenza-awareness-week-day_06.html) resurrection of the 1918 influenza virus.
Roland98
10-07-2005, 04:57 PM
I've probably bored you all to death now and I know it ain't as exciting as singing dolphins, but last one, I promise: How ready are we, and what can YOU do? (http://aetiology.blogspot.com/2005/10/pandemic-influenza-awareness-week-day_07.html)
vBulletin® v3.8.2, Copyright ©2000-2012, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.