I think Bush is going to get a second term.

[Petra]

I hope I'm wrong.


It's so depressing.

:deepsigh:

[Dingfod]

I think you're wrong.

My prediction: I think Bush is going to get soundly defeated Nov. 2nd, and even though there may be some recounts in some states there won't even be a question about the national electoral vote total, Bush will concede before midnight Pacific Time. I don't think he really wants another four years. Being preznit is haaaaard!

[Dingfod]

^I hope the above isn't just the Zoloft taking over my mind.

[SharonDee]

My prediction: I think Bush is going to get soundly defeated Nov. 2nd, and even though there may be some recounts in some states there won't even be a question about the national electoral vote total, Bush will concede before midnight Pacific Time.I really, really, really, really, really hope you're right about this. When I think of waking up to a Kerry defeat on November 3rd... well, I don't like to think of it.

I've been thinking of getting morning-after bumper stickers for my car but I can't think how best to phrase them.

1. Bush won; I hope you idiots are happy now.
2. Kerry won; now let's see how he fucks things up.

There's got to be snappier ways to say those things. A little help? :signpls:

[Godless Dave]

No one can predict the future.

Keep in mind the polls, even the ones that aren't rigged, don't count the following:

young people who have never voted

people who only use cell phones

active duty military

Chin up!

But just in case you're right, what's the job market like in New Zealand? I'd be good at taking care of sheepdogs, but I can't whistle so I'd be a horrible trainer.

[LadyShea]

Godless Dave is absolutely right luna. If you're going by polls, don't worry. There are huge numbers of younge people registering to vote who have never voted before and/or may not have home phones (polls can't call college dorms or cell phones for example)

Also, Frankie got a call from a pollster at work, when he said "Kerry" she yelled "Dammit" and hung up on him. I kinda doubt she recorded the responses correclty.

Is there something besides polls that has you worried, luna?

[Dingfod]

But just in case you're right, what's the job market like in New Zealand? I'd be good at taking care of sheepdogs, but I can't whistle so I'd be a horrible trainer.But I can, so maybe we can work as a team.

[freemonkey]

Also, Frankie got a call from a pollster at work, when he said "Kerry" she yelled "Dammit" and hung up on him. I kinda doubt she recorded the responses correclty.
At the beginning of each debate my phone has rung and the caller ID came up Sponsor Reps, a telemarketer. Putting 2 & 2 together, and thinking maybe they were doing a debate poll, last night I answered. It was me who said "dammit!" when the caller said "I'm calling on behalf of local firefighters....." :irked: I was hoping to add my "Bush sucks" to something "official"

**Luna, I really hope you're wrong about this.

[SharonDee]

I will be so glad when this election is over. Because my feller Americans are so polarized I cannot talk about this stuff with friends, family, or coworkers for fear of pissing them off. I can't even discuss this on my journaling site. (I inadvertently started a journal war yesterday because I answered a diarist's question honestly.)

I almost don't care who wins anymore. I'm just so tired and tired of it. It's not like a Kerry win is going to be that great; it's just that he can't be as bad as the Megalomaniac in Chief.

Tired. Tired, tired, tired, fucking tired.

[Petra]

I haven't been checking polls at all, as they are so close and I don't trust them at all.

I hope y'all are right about me being wrong.

My biggest fear is that at the last minute something will happen that will rouse sronger Bush supprt - y'know, something terrorrrisssst.

And all the voter fraud and everything. And I was listening to CSPAN's phone in show after the debate yesterday, and so many people thought Bush has done so great and he's a man of God, and he's honest, and a whole bootload of other bullshit, and how Kerry wasn't direct and was this and that and all that bullshit. Are people really so easily beguiled by Bush; are they really that fucking dumb?

When Kerry first got the ticket, I thought he was just Bush lite, but he's very, very different. The more I know about him, the more I like him. I honestly think the guy will be a positive force domestically and internationally - though how he'll manage to fullfil many of his promises, I don't know!

After the first debate I didn't think Bush wanted another term, either. But since then, I think someone may have given him a little more incentive. He's such a crook - yet he appears to be made of teflon. Nothing sticks. Why the fuck is that? The man should be in prison.

I dunno. Maybe I'm just being pessimistic.

Oh, one more thing - does anything else here think that Bush is on drugs? I doubt they'd be illegal drugs, but prescription drugs; loads of them, propping him up.

[lisarea]

No one can predict the future.

Keep in mind the polls, even the ones that aren't rigged, don't count the following:

young people who have never voted

people who only use cell phones

active duty military


Do they really not even count first-time voters?

I have suspicions about the 'likely voter' designation myself, but I haven't found anything very concrete on it. The pollsters are pretty secretive about it.

My theory was that maybe some of them do count all the answers, but weight them according to the likelihood that people in those demographics actually vote. So, if registered 18-to-24 year old white males vote 20% of the time, each result would only count for 20%. (If anyone has better info on the likely voter thing, I'd love to see it.)

If in fact they're doing this, I think the polls could be way way way off. Almost all of the LM's friends are voting this year. Just last night, I was talking to one of his friends who's still 17, and he was bemoaning the fact that he wasn't born a few months earlier. He's got maybe two or three friends I've talked to who are apathetic, but by far most of them are informed of the issues, and very galvanized.

Anyway, I've been predicting for a while that the 18-to-24s are going to seriously buck the apathy trend this time around, and may, in fact, end up pwning the election.

[Godless Dave]

Oh, one more thing - does anything else here think that Bush is on drugs? I doubt they'd be illegal drugs, but prescription drugs; loads of them, propping him up.
There are rumors to that effect floating around. One is that he is heavily medicated to control his bad temper. This was reported in Capitol Hill Blue, a paper which has a poor reputation for accuracy. No way to know for sure.

My hunch is that he's still drinking. Remember the pretzel incident?

http://www.truthspeaker.org/img/bush-coke.jpg

Another thing to remember about polls: even the news media that isn't directly controlled by the White House has a vested interest in a close race as it means more viewers.

[Dingfod]

I really had merely viewed Kerry as the selected "Not-Bush" candidate in my "Anybody But Bush '04" campaign. I was not impressed at all with his prewar position on Iraq. I mean that if a doofus like me could see through the ruse, then why couldn't he and the rest of the yahoos in Congress that voted to give Bush the power to go to war see the same thing? Am I just not easily mesmerized by flim-flam? No, I'm sure I am easily fooled on some things, just not that particular line of shit.

I was rather ambivalent about Kerry as the candidate, subscribing to the "John Kerry is a douchebag but I'm voting for him anyway" school of thought. However, I saw a warm personable John Kerry and Teresa Heinz-Kerry on the Dr. Phil show and his performance in the debates. I was impressed with his genuine openness and honesty. I came to like John Kerry. I think he'll make a great president.

[Blake]

Poor Sharon. My sympathies really, really go out to you. I know, Kerry won't be anywhere near as good as a president should be, but you'll see, he'll be so much better than it'll cheer you right up.

The good news, luna, is that vote fraud stories are getting a reasonable amount of play before the election this time; plus, with the experience of 2000 nice and fresh, Kerry will not roll over and play dead the way Gore did. If necessary, the fight will continue past the Supreme Court--but I don't think it'll even get that far. (Oh, and don't worry about the C-SPAN callers; brain-dead shut-ins who watch nothing but C-SPAN, many of them, so not at all representative of the electorate.)

--Bush's approval rating is just one point higher than its all-time low of last May, well below 50%. This is almost guaranteed to spell electoral death for an incumbent this late in the race.

--Stock markets aren't a bad indicator of political future; when they've risen 3.3% in the month of October, the incumbent has always been re-elected, and when they've declined by so much as 0.5%, the incumbent has always lost. At the moment, they're either flat or down from October 1, and the rising price of oil is a continuing pressure forcing them down.

--Artificial futures markets (such as the Iowa Electronic Markets (http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm)) are also traditionally good predictors of outcomes; at first glance, this would tend to raise one's anxiety that Bush will win, but on closer inspection there's great cause for optimism. The graph at the top of the page linked to above is broken out into four different contracts in a graph underneath, representing the estimated chances of four eventualities: that Bush will win, but with just over 50% of the two-party popular vote; that Bush will win, with more than 52% of the two-party popular vote; and that Kerry will win under one of those two conditions. Again, historically, incumbents always either win or lose in a landslide ("landslide," in our era of diminished expectations, being defined as more than 52% of the two-party popular vote). The IEM market participants, superficially savvy, know this, but for some reason they don't think Kerry has much of a chance of winning in a landslide. I know, deep in my bones, that it is impossible for Bush to win this election in a landslide, so many people hate him so much. (Not to mention that so much of his own base has grown disenchanted with him.) So the futures markets on this score are unreliable, and the chances of Bush's winning by their estimation are exaggerated.

I can appreciate the anxiety about what still might happen; something terroristic might happen and swing things the opposite way that they went in Spain, and we know that Karl Rove is going to unleash something or other with worse potential than the Swift Boat smears. I just don't think it's going to work. The momentum is all Kerry's way, and deeper looks at the polls bear that out: he's leading the electoral college by a decent margin, he's a strong closer, and he hasn't finished campaigning yet.

{edit: and oh yeah, he's definitely hopped up on goofballs. Remember that pre-Iraq war news conference [sic]?}

[Dingfod]

--Artificial futures markets (such as the Iowa Electronic Markets (http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm)) are also traditionally good predictors of outcomes...I want to say that this is not true, but the fact is I don't know enough about it to say that. I think they may work as a predictor for some things, but I'm not sure about close elections, particularly since most of the players in such futures markets tend to be conservatives. And, I'm pretty sure that, being human, these "investors" are influenced by emotion just as the real commodity futures markets are.

[Petra]

I hope y'all are right.

Maybe I'm just depressed anyway, or something.



GO KERRY! :bow:

[BigBlue2]

No one can predict the future.

Keep in mind the polls, even the ones that aren't rigged, don't count the following:

young people who have never voted

people who only use cell phones

active duty military

Chin up!

But just in case you're right, what's the job market like in New Zealand? I'd be good at taking care of sheepdogs, but I can't whistle so I'd be a horrible trainer.
According to this (http://www.transtasman.co.nz/free_content/reg-eco-1.html), the unemployment rate in New Zealand is 4%. In Australia, it's 5.6% and the Australian people in their wisdom just re-elected one of Bush's closest personal and political friends with an increased majority. I'll race you to lunachicks couch.

[Socratoad]

Ever since the end of the third debate I've had a sinking feeling in the pit of my gut. I really do not need any reassuring. What I do need is for everybody that detests Bush even one quarter as much as me to get the hell out there and hustle up some voters.

In short: cheerleaders are not needed at this point in the game but dedicated workers are needed more than at any time in american history for over one hundred years.

Not much this old Toad up here in Polarbearland can do nor can Lunachick in faraway Kiwiland and yet this election effects us and most people around this battered old world.

[Godless Dave]

I really do not need any reassuring. What I do need is for everybody that detests Bush even one quarter as much as me to get the hell out there and hustle up some voters.
Hey, I stuck address labels on envelopes for a couple hours. And I gave money to people with better persuasive skills than I have.

[Blake]

If I can spare the couple of days, I'll drive down to Florida and help ferry retirees to and from the polls. They'll be turning out, ol' Toad; they'll be turning out. I've read more than one article that Kerry-minded Floridians are out for revenge. :)

(P.S. I was born and raised in Quebec; give us back Labrador, you thief. ;) )

[Ymir's blood]

(P.S. I was born and raised in Quebec; give us back Labrador, you thief. ;) )
Retrieve it yourself! :retrieve:

[Deadlokd]

And it turns out that Petra was right. And her quote the other day here (http://www.freethought-forum.com/forum/showthread.php?p=587083#post587083) now worries me.

[Qingdai]

I am not going to say it's not worrisome, but incumbents usually win here. Neither one is an incumbent.
So a better chance now than before.

Then again I keep thinking things can't get any worse, and they do.
:sadcheer:

[SharonDee]

No, no, NOO!! Of all the threads to resurrect ... why, god? Why??! :girlcry:

[Ensign Steve]

And it turns out that Petra was right. And her quote the other day here (http://www.freethought-forum.com/forum/showthread.php?p=587083#post587083) now worries me.
Goddamnit, Petra, stop trying to predict the election outcomes! :glare: What bothers me the most about the linked post is that she says they're going to win. I was in the McCain Isn't The Worst Person Ever camp until he chose the worst person ever for his running mate.

I am not going to say it's not worrisome, but incumbents usually win here. Neither one is an incumbent.
So a better chance now than before.
I was thinking about that on my walk home from work today. I was wondering how happy I am going to be when Obama wins the election. The last time i was happy about a presidential election result was when Clinton won the first time. What was that, 16 years ago? I wasn't old enough to vote anyway. But I remember he was running against the incumbent and I figured that was a strike against his chances.

[Deadlokd]

Before Australia's last general election the country was unsure of the outcome. The conservative parties had been in power for twelve years and they didn't look like they were going to lose the election. They had successfully bribed their way into office four times already and I had little faith in my countrymen being able to see beyond their own self absorbed agendas. But the opposition had a brand new leader, a young man from Queensland who managed to unite the left leaning Labor party behind him. And then, having done that, managed to drag enough of the country behind him to at least look like a chance on election night.

Well, nightfall came and the votes were being counted and that young left leaning man from Queensland not only won the election, but he delivered a huge kicking to the conservative coalition. Such a kicking that the incumbent Prime Minister John Howard lost his seat, an event that had only happened once before in the history of Australian politics.

So, I guess the moral is, don't be so quick to sell your countrymen short.

[Joshua Adams]

Don't get too worked up about Petra's scary prophetic powers. (http://www.freethought-forum.com/forum/showpost.php?p=353405&postcount=9)

[Watser?]

:phew:

[viscousmemories]

But seriously folks. 911.

[Watser?]

POW!

[davidm]

Here we are, four years after Petra started this thread about the Bush/Kerry campaign, and we're into another election cycle.

The economy is in a shambles. The budget that Bill Clinton balanced is now vastly in the red. Homes are being foreclosed all over America. Oil is only recently retreating after record highs, yet the mainsteam media won't even touch the reality of Peak Oil, which means that despite present fluctuations, the price of oil over the long term will continue to climb to the point of economic disintegration. America is still mired in a quagmire in Iraq, a nation that did not attack the U.S. on 9/11 and had no weapons of mass destruction, despite the lies of Bush, Cheney, Rice and Powell. Greenhouse warming goes about unabated. Osama bin Laden is still at large, despite Bush's vow that he would be caught "dead or alive."

And what do we see? John McCain, a tedious old windbag who should long ago have been put out to pasture, and his running mate, Sarah Palin -- a global warming denialist, a creationist, an advocate of banning books and someone who thinks that women who have been raped should be forced to bear their children -- are ahead in the polls.

R.I.P, America. It was nice knowing you when you had some legitimate pretensions to goodness, and even greatness. I'm afraid those days are long gone. But thanks for the memories. :wave:

[beyelzu]

I am still an optimist, I think that america is still a great fucking country and that we can get our shit together.

[Crumb]

I used to think that, bey. I still hope it, but every day I grow more and more cynical. :deepsigh:

[viscousmemories]

I do believe Bush would be re-elected if he could run. I won't be surprised if McCain wins or if he dies in office. I'm afraid I can imagine a world where the hockeymom from Malcom in the Middle is President of the United States.

[Anastasia Beaverhausen]

The McCain from 8 years ago wouldn't have been so bad, but the Rove Machine has worked him over since. :sadcheer:

[Dingfod]

I do believe Bush would be re-elected if he could run. I won't be surprised if McCain wins or if he dies in office. I'm afraid I can imagine a world where the hockeymom from Malcom in the Middle is President of the United States.

Great.

YouTube - Road Rage

[viscousmemories]

Exactly.

[Stormlight]

Change you can believe in (http://www.socksandbarney.com/comics/2008-09-01-socksbarney_181.gif)

[Zehava]

Change you can believe in (http://www.socksandbarney.com/comics/2008-09-01-socksbarney_181.gif)

:rofl:

[davidm]

Gallup: McCain leads Obama (http://www.gallup.com/poll/110143/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Maintains-5Point-Lead.aspx)

McCain winning majority of independents (http://www.gallup.com/poll/110137/McCain-Now-Winning-Majority-Independents.aspx)

McCain winning on leadership. (http://www.gallup.com/video/110131/McCain-Strong-Leadership-Effective-Governance.aspx)

So this tedious old windbag and probably corrupt McCain (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keating_Five) is surging in the polls, along with his creationist, global-warming denialist ditz of a running mate who also thinks that books should be banned and women who are raped should be forced to bear their children.

Increasingly it looks as if yguy and Rocky are the exemplars of America. If so, one can only hope the American empire collapses as soon as possible. It will be just retribution for the stupidity of its feckless citizens, fat slobs gobbling Cheeze Doodles while masturbating nightly in front of sitcoms on the tube.

[ManM]

...its feckless citizens, fat slobs gobbling Cheeze Doodles while masturbating nightly in front of sitcoms on the tube.
Elitist.

[BDS]

.... while masturbating nightly in front of sitcoms on the tube.

Prude! (By the way, I'll bet that's not Todd Palin's favorite sexual activity.)

[Crumb]

...its feckless citizens, fat slobs gobbling Cheeze Doodles while masturbating nightly in front of sitcoms on the tube.
Elitist.

:troll: :troll: :halftroll:

I'd have given you 3 1/2 if you'd called him uppity.

[Dingfod]

.... while masturbating nightly in front of sitcoms on the tube.

Prude! (By the way, I'll bet that's not Todd Palin's favorite sexual activity.)I'll bet it is when Sarah's in Juneau and he's at home in Wasilla.