Why the economy sucks
It's late so this post will probably ramble some. Forgive me. I'll attempt to clean it up or at least clarify the unclear parts tomorrow.
There's a lot of arguing between the Austrian school and Keynesians right now about whether fiscal stimulus works. It requires quite a bit of data-fudging to pretend that the Great Depression wasn't alleviated by Roosevelt's policies (Amity Shlaes and her ilk focus on overall private employment, which is misleading since the New Deal wasn't designed to improve private farm employment but rather to make food prices affordable, a measure which directly contradicted the goal of improving overall private employment; however, if one focuses either on private nonfarm employment or overall employment including government employment, then employment improved by 10% from 1933 to 1937, when Roosevelt temporarily abandoned the New Deal to attempt to balance the budget - a remarkable improvement by any standard. GDP improved similarly). However, the Austrian vs. Keynesian debate misses a large part of the point entirely. This isn't the same country it was in 1933. We had a solid manufacturing sector and a large trade surplus at the time, even if our economy was in the shit can. These days we've outsourced all our jobs. Paul Craig Roberts, an architect of Reaganomics, has in recent years joined the list of notable Republican strategists who have abandoned the party (another notable example is Kevin Phillips, an architect of Nixon's Southern Strategy and the author of The Emerging Republican Majority who became one of the sharpest critics of the Bush administration), and his article on Counterpunch Tuesday argues that the main reason the economy's remained in the shit can is because we gave away all our jobs to China, India, and the rest of the former Third World: Quote:
The consolidation of power into the hands of a few powerful corporations has been rarely noted, but it was one of the most detrimental policies leading to an economic crash. A handful of gigantic firms got themselves so overleveraged and interwove their assets so completely that by the time it became apparent that the entire edifice had been built upon quicksand, there was no way to prevent an economic collapse. It's not just in the financial industry that businesses have become consolidated, though; it's everywhere. This trend is so complete, and so universally unnoticed (Barry C. Lynn* is one of the few who gets it) that there is little chance of the competition on which capitalism thrives being restored. What we have is, in reality, an oligarchy in which a few powerful entities control the economy. This is directly antithetical to the capitalism advocated by Adam Smith, in which he envisioned numerous small firms competing against one another. Smith's distrust of the upper class, while often ignored now, is hard to miss:
However, these solutions would be putting a Band-Aid on the real problem. For starters, any firm that is "too big to fail" should be too big to exist. A host of economists from Nassim Nicholas Taleb to Nouriel Roubini agree on this point; unfortunately, the chances of anything being done about the matter without a more informed and politically engaged populace are almost nil. Furthermore, trade policy in the United States needs to be redesigned. I'm not in favour of complete protectionism; trade is good under certain circumstances. The problem is that this has been generalised to "All trade is good," which isn't really the case. Taxes on imports should be designed more intelligently to encourage sustainable development and fair labour policies; the United States can't hope to compete with countries where pollution is rampant and workers make $.25 a day. At any rate, it's worth noting a Gallup poll two months ago showing sixty percent of the populace supporting a new stimulus. While such a measure would, as mentioned, only be putting a Band-Aid over the problem, it's probably better than nothing. But no one should fool themselves into believing that such a measure will fix the underlying problems that ruined our economy to begin with. *Yes, I realise the irony of linking to Amazon in a post ranting about large corporations. Amazon has better reviews. Go buy it from Powell's or some other independent retailer after you're done reading them. |
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I am aware I am not an economist, but I wonder sometimes if buying things from local establishments is even beneficial as I figure someone in the community will eventually send that same spent cash out of the area.
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Is this thinking flawed? I suppose it might raise unemployment levels. Is it better to just hold onto spare cash or should we hand it off to others who need it? I mean if it is true that the rich do not spend surplus, it can't help to spend the money they'll eventually get, right? It seems like the only solution to the dilemma would be to convince the general poor population to stop buying from corporations, but it is from there people purchase their necessities for affordable prices. So unless we could convince most struggling Americans to change where they buy we are royally screwed. |
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I don't know what the answer is. As long as average Americans and Australians have their retirement funds tied up in stocks there's no solution that will keep the average person out of monstrous debt. |
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Interesting post, and a great deal to agree with, though
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Maybe it's becoming clear that the end result of globilisation is (ironically!) a realisation that our Western lifestyle of dirt cheap manufactured goods, fueled by cheap labour and hardship of other countries, isn't actually an equilibrium. Scary prospects if you like working for more than $.25 an hour, unless you're the guy (kid) in the sweatshop that made all my clothes. |
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As bothersome as it is to not be filthy rich - American life in general is pretty luxurious compared to so many others in way worse conditions. That can be easy to forget when the core value of a capitalist is to grab the most.
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Regarding spending, the Social Credit model of the economy (to which I was introduced by Heinlein's For Us, the Living) holds that capitalism is inherently inefficient because spending isn't 100%, which results in some businesses being unable to pay their debts to their banks, thus forcing them to lay off workers, which causes unemployment (Keynes, interestingly, made a similar argument, although naturally his solutions were entirely different). It's a convincing argument, although I'm not sure I like the solution any longer (I was, at one time, fond of it). At any rate, if everyone keeps holding onto money then the economy definitely isn't going to get better; although doing so will increase their short-term net worth, it will probably slow their long-term prospects for increased income. That said, I'm part of the problem; I haven't been spending much either. Food and the occasional music album make up almost the entirety of my purchases recently. It's also worth noting that economics is a highly theoretical field. I honestly advise everyone to take all economic writings with a rather large grain of salt, because there's no empirical way to test economic theories (which is probably one reason economics causes such spirited debate). Certainly the correlation between economic policies and economic outcomes can be tested, but it's a case of post hoc ergo propter hoc reasoning; there's no saying some unknown factor unrelated to the economic policies didn't cause the change in economic outcomes. There's simply no way to run controlled experiments in economics. (Come to think of it, the same goes for politics). |
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I don’t think the rich are more miserly; they have the ability to invest/spend outside the US which the poor do not.
What I’m trying to figure out is as jobs continue to be lost, money continues to be drained from the economy, and those in power refuse to address the issue, what happens next? |
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:rimshot: |
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More realistically it would be nice if people stopped voting in Republicans and Democrats but that's obviously not going to happen. |
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What the wealthy did with their tax cuts | let freedom ring's Blog
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Question: How is an illegal alien taking away a sub minimum wage job more a threat to the US then the above? Which hurts the defict more? :D |
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Brad DeLong's outlook. Spoiler: It's not rosy.
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:popcorn: |
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I resurrect this thread because a new study reveals that the public has dramatically different priorities than either the House of Representatives or the Obama administration. Shocking, I know. Meanwhile it's pretty apparent to anyone with two brain cells to rub together that the budget proposal is going to kill jobs, and indeed an analysis by Moody's (cited in the same article) concludes that this is exactly the case. FUCK YEAH CAPITALISM!
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One common thread uniting every policy PRC complains about is likely a callous shortsightedness. I think David Brooks nailed it in his column The Power Elite (NYT, February 18, 2010). Brooks' “meritocratic elite”--heavily Jewish, as opposed to just wannabe Jewish like the old Protestant elite--is really more interested in short-term profit-making than anything else, including giving a shit about the long-term national interest. Of course ultimately the national interest is that of the emerging human nation. The Jewish power elite doesn't identify with humanity, though; they just mouth the rhetoric when it is "good for the Jews." Which is to say KA-CHING! Ironically, taking the lead in moving beyond the short-sighted economic shit and war-for-profit is going to be a mission for Aryans. White gentiles are the least racist and ethnocentric people in the world, so they're most likely to genuinely identify as pan-humanists first. Most Jews, on the other hand, if they really were more than superficial humanists, would be horrified by Israel or at least have severe reservations about it. Instead, the are more likely to expertly lie in an attempt to excuse Israel's every excess. Basically, America has become a glorified economic zone dominated by shopkeepers and swindlers who really can't be trusted. |
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45 words in (not including the words in the parentheses) to get to "Jewish". Keep it up Sophia. Shit anti-Semitism and racism everywhere. We will, one day, god willing, recognise your brilliance.
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Have some anyway.
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They're free. What the fuck do I care. :shrug:
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Meanwhile, asset looting continues. |
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Krugman on unemployment and the lack of concern over it from political elites. Some choice quotes:
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Glad to see that I am not the only one who thinks "trickle down economy" is stark staring nonsense! It has been a pet peeve of mine for years that someone could try to sell such blather to a whole nation.
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Don't forget it was the nation that bought it. So. You know. There's that part of the equation.
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Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein may face federal prosecution for his role in the financial crisis. Can I get a "Hell yes"?
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