Thread: SCOTAL Itch
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Old 06-28-2012, 04:02 PM
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Sauron Sauron is offline
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Interesting.

INTRADE, the online predictive betting / marketing site, places bets on how likely certain political or economic events are. This is an economic prediction market, operating under the hypothesis that the aggregate decisions / viewpoints of a large group of people are the most accurate predictor of any given outcome.

Up to 30 minutes before the announcement, INTRADE was prediting a 70-71% chance of this being overturned. Oops.

I've often been suspicious of the underlying hypothesis behind INTRADE, and whether or not INTRADE was actually sampling random opinions or had devolved into a libertarian polling device.
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