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Old 10-24-2018, 02:43 PM
Vivisectus's Avatar
Vivisectus Vivisectus is offline
Astroid the Foine Loine between a Poirate and a Farrrmer
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

I am going to go ahead and predict that the Repubs will keep the senate. And that they will not even lose congress.

I have the feeling the general disillusionment with established politics is still strong enough to keep turnouts low enough in all the places where it matters, despite the growing evidence that nationalistic populism is not a viable alternative, and is even downright dangerous. I think that what we have been and are still seeing is a crisis of relevance: people do not feel they have any real skin in the game. They will vote along tribal lines, and they will vote according to topical issues they may care about, if they vote at all.

At the same time the firehose-effect of all these different sources pumping out vast amounts of a mix of actual and false information is making people feel like there is no objective, dependable information at all. That there is no real difference between Trumps blatant lies and a well-researched piece of journalism. In the end they will simply opt to believe what appeals to them the most, and this will hamper a unified response while not hampering Trumps message in the slightest.

I suspect turnouts will be better, but not that much, and that the increased turnouts will be there on both sides. I do not think enough young people will vote to make a decisive difference.

I do not think it will impact where it matters, and that the populist dogwhistles, strongman posturing and reactionary signalling is liked by a large enough minority to keep recent events from changing much. And that the rest just doesn't care enough to provide them with a concerted counter-push.

I think this will provide enough encouragement to Trump and his enablers for them to double down on the tactics that worked for them: a shameless disregard for accepted political norms, blatant appeals to racism, nationalism, a strong reactionary message where minority rights and women's rights are concerned, disregard for ethics and anti-corruption rules, scapegoating of political groups and immigrants, scaremongering about these same groups, undermining the press, even more blatant voter suppression, and a continuous muddying of the waters without any real accountability to facts. Also tax breaks, because deficit schmeficit and he can always let the republicans cut social security and the like.

And I think he will be able to do it, because while the majority disagrees with Trump, not enough of them give enough fucks. The US is going to get the government it deserves, and it is going to suck. It may even get properly dangerous.
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