[erimir]

I would make a modification that the MT at-large special election is also important.

And it is a much more plausible win than KS-04, given that the GOP nominee (who is really hungry for office, any office) lost the MT governor's race in 2016 even as Trump easily carried the state.

All of them will provide useful information, however. Even if we lose KS-04, that district is very very Republican, and a relatively close race there is good news. The margin provides more information than the binary outcome.