I've been thinking this is exactly how things are going to happen, except I didn't know about the candidates who signed NN pledges all losing:
Balloon Juice » Blog Archive » This Week in Internet
Also, there was just some announcement that Hulu is going to make some kind of premium service free on the PS3. Streaming content apps like that and Netflix are the disruptive technology, and the cable ISPs are going to do what they can to keep that from happening.
So yeah, throttling starts happening really visibly pretty soon, I bet.