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Old 11-08-2017, 08:58 PM
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erimir erimir is offline
Projecting my phallogos with long, hard diction
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

The special election in Utah to replace Jason Chaffetz was a win for the Republicans, as expected. However, this can still be counted as an improvement - the winner, John Curtis is more moderate than Chaffetz and didn't vote for Trump last year, although I'm sure he's a likely vote for tax cuts for the rich and other Republican BS it's pretty hard to be as much of a hack as Chaffetz.

Anyway, Jason Chaffetz won by 47 pts last year, and Trump won it by 24, and Romney won it by 59 pts in 2012. Curtis only won by 30.5 pts. This is good news for Republicans, in that the candidate outperformed Trump. The bad news is he didn't do better by a huge amount and Trump was extremely unpopular for a Republican in Utah. This indicates that 2016 is closer to how Utah will vote than 2012 (although Romney as a Mormon outperformed a typical Republican), and Donald Trump was extremely unpopular for a Republican in Utah.

But a result like this suggests Democrats might be able to pick up the weakest GOP seat in Utah next year. There had previously been a Democrat Jim Matheson from Salt Lake City for 14 years, but after the 2010 census the Republicans gerrymandered so that parts of Salt Lake City were split among all four of their districts. Even so, Matheson was able to win reelection in that district in 2012...

It could also indicate a high likelihood of flipping seats at lower levels in Utah, I suppose.
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Thanks, from:
Nullifidian (11-13-2017), The Man (11-08-2017)
 
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