[erimir]

I think if he makes a good recovery, he's still in the hunt. A good recovery is not a given though.

I think the betting sites are a bit high on Warren and a bit low on Sanders and Biden (and probably a bit low on Harris, who still has some arguments in her favor). But I agree with the order of Warren > Biden > Sanders.

The trendlines for Warren are positive, and the polls are showing her nipping at Biden's heels nationally. Beyond the top-line numbers, where Biden still has a clear (if shrinking) lead, Warren has been consistently getting the best numbers on other questions:
-net favorability (esp: she has the lowest unfavorables)
-what percent of Democratic primary voters are considering her
-what % have her as second choice
-what % would be happy with her as nominee vs. unhappy,

Which suggests she has the most potential to grow, and unlike Biden, there isn't much reason to suspect her support is based on her being "electable" but not the voter's favorite. Electability voters will abandon you if you start to seem like a loser, as could happen if you, say, lose Iowa and New Hampshire, which seems very possible for Biden. So I think it makes sense to think she has a better chance than Biden, but I don't think it's 50% as the betting sites do.

In the meantime, I guess a danger for Sanders is that the portion of his supporters who are not die-hards switch to Warren thinking she's now the more reliable choice*, giving her the momentum to start racking up endorsements from progressive leaders and orgs that were holding back because they didn't want to pick sides between the two, and rolling from there.

*Some might switch to Biden as well, as there's a bit of overlap there. But if age-related health issues are the reason you're switching, you might be less inclined to go for Biden/if you're not worried about Biden's age, you'll be less likely to abandon Bernie so quickly over this.