Quote:
Originally Posted by MonCapitan2002
I am of the opinion that it's entirely possible that life could be rare, but the fact of the matter is that we simply don't have enough data to make any determination on how common intelligent (defined here as tool using and capable of developing advanced technology) life is. After all, we only have the sample size of one biosphere to evaluate the odds with.
It is very likely that the answer may never be discovered. It almost certainly won't be discovered in our lifetimes absent a ground breaking discovery of some nature. Personally, I hope that the universe is filled with countless interstellar civilizations and will be among them, but realistically calling that exceedingly unlikely is a monumental understatement.
|
This is the exact point of the OP -- at the present time we only have a sample of one -- one abiogenesis, which is the Earth. Until we have another data point to add to that we only speculating, not sciencing.
If we at some point are able to create life in a laboratory, find life elsewhere in our solar system that is an indisputably independent abiogenesis (something I really hope will happen and that I agree is definitely
possible) or SETI makes a groundbreaking discovery then -- two data points! And the argument for a universe where life is
not rare has some legs.
I am not being a nattering nabob of negativity by holding a skepticism of a life-filled universe. I agree that the numbers of
potentially habitable worlds just in our own galaxy
is astronomical. And the video in the OP uses the word "if" quite a number of times, which is something I always look for in any argument.
But there's a lot of "ifs" on both sides. And there is only one side that has an irrefutable fact -- we only have a sample of one abiogenesis. Which for now makes the Rare Earth hypothesis the only argument that is backed by any evidence. And just because life
did start early here on the earth unfortunately doesn't prove anything, again because this is a sample of one. The thought experiment
in the video starting at 10:11 makes this point very succinctly.
On a personal note - in the same way my realization there is no evidence whatsoever for an afterlife made all human lives so much more valuable to me personally, the idea that
this might be it life-wise in the universe has only increased my reverence for
all life on this planet. Partly because everything that dies is NOT going to some boring eternal heaven place or even coming back here to suffer in some other form, but also because if the Rare Earth hypothesis is correct (and until we have data point #2 there is no scientific basis for arguing otherwise), I feel we have an obligation to the Universe, as the only known sentient beings, to stop treating our biosphere as a playground, a landfill and sewer and get our
act together. And extra thanks to TLR for posting the Peter Mulvey vid. If life turns out not to be rare, that perspective goes a long way in answering the Fermi Paradox.