Thread: News Miscellany
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Old 04-12-2017, 04:45 AM
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erimir erimir is offline
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Default Re: News Miscellany

So in the end the Republican wins KS-04 by less than 7 pts.

On the other hand, Trump won the district by about 27 pts (I believe) and Mike Pompeo (the Republican who vacated the seat to take a job in the Trump admin) won by about 30 pts.

So this is bad news for the Republicans. Losing the seat would've been an apocalyptic omen for the GOP, but if this result is repeated I think it would still qualify as catastrophic.

A 20 pt national swing should give the Democrats a significantly larger House majority than they had in 2009, and might even deliver the Senate. In the Senate, Nevada and Arizona are the only obvious pickup opportunities, which is not enough to get to 51 seats. But a 20 pt swing would even put Nebraska and Texas into play. While I don't see any other plausible wins in an optimistic scenario, I could see an anti-Trump conservative/Republican winning Utah (either Romney or McMullin), although it would probably require Hatch to be out of the picture (not inconceivable given that he's in his 80s).

I doubt we'd see a wave of that proportion, but even a 8-10 pt swing would probably give us the House.

Last edited by erimir; 04-12-2017 at 05:12 AM. Reason: final election margin was closer
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