Addicting Info – The Koch Brothers Have Decided On Your Next Leader: President Scott Walker
Quote:
Every six months, Republican politicians, media personalities, and pundits gather for a self-titled seminar run by the brothers Charles and David Koch. Every four years, these oligarchs pick the presidential candidates for the Republican party. In 2011, Mitt Romney was their candidate; in 2007, it was John McCain. This year, rumor coming out of Palm Springs is that the Koch Brothers have decided to crown Scott Walker as the GOP candidate for president in 2016!
Their previous attempts have used a war hero, then a successful businessman, so why did they decide on using the college dropout who left after an attempt to run for student body president was foiled by a rule violation?
Most probably because he is completely and absolutely their servant.
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Koch-backed network aims to spend nearly $1 billion on 2016 elections - The Washington Post
Will the Koch brothers end up buying the Republican Party?
Listen To Our Totally Subjective 2016 Presidential Odds | FiveThirtyEight
The participants:
- Nate Silver, editor in chief
- Micah Cohen, DataLab editor
- Harry Enten, senior political writer
- special guest Rembert Browne of Grantland
(Field) means other possible candidates. On the Republican side, candidates like Paul Ryan, John Kasich, Susana Martinez, ...
Numbers are percentages. I took their medians and sorted the candidates by those values.
On the Republican side, the front runners are Jeb Bush and Scott Walker at about 17% each. The next ones start at about 10% each.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is the clear winner, with everybody else much less. Elizabeth Warren does about as well as Jim Webb, Joe Biden, Marin O'Malley, and the field of other possibilities; all are about 3% - 4%.
Republicans:
| - | Micah | Nate | Harry | Rembert |
| Bush | 15 | 18 | 23 | 7 |
| Romney | 7 | 9 | 10 | 7 |
| Rubio | 6 | 11 | 10 | 10 |
| Paul | 9.5 | 10 | 10 | 5 |
| Walker | 19 | 20 | 15 | 6 |
| Christie | 11 | 6 | 5 | 20 |
| Cruz | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Perry | 13 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| Huckabee | 4 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| Jindal | 1.25 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Carson | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Santorum | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Pence | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Graham | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Fiorina | 0.25 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| (Field) | 6 | 6 | 10 | 20 |
Walker 17, Bush 16.5, Rubio 10, Paul 9.75, Christie 8.5, Romney 8, (Field) 8, Huckabee 5, Pence 4, Perry 3, Jindal 2.125, Santorum 1.5, Carson 1, Cruz 1, Fiorina 1, Graham 0.25
Democrats:
| - | Micah | Nate | Harry | Rembert |
| Clinton | 67 | 75 | 90 | 70 |
| Warren | 3 | 8 | 3 | 2 |
| Biden | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Gillibrand | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Cuomo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| O'Malley | 8.5 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Webb | 9 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| Sanders | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick | 0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| (Field) | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
Clinton 72.5, (Field) 4.5, Webb 3.5, Warren 3, Biden 3, O'Malley 3, Gillibrand 1.5, Cuomo 1, Patrick 0.625, Sanders 0.125
Earlier estimates:
Micah Cohen on Twitter: "We forgot Rubio! New totally subjective odds for the 2016 field, from @NateSilver538, @ForecasterEnten and I http://t.co/cCOVOtBCq1"
| - | Micah | Nate | Harry |
| CC | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| SW | 17 | 20 | 17 |
| Romney | 6 | 10 | 15 |
| JB | 15 | 17 | 20 |
| Paul | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| Pence | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| MH | 5 | 5 | 2 |
| RS | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| BJ | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Perry | 13 | 1 | 2 |
| Rubio | 6 | 13 | 9 |
| (Field) | 7 | 9 | 5 |
JB 17, SW 17, Paul 10, Romney 10, Rubio 9, CC 8, (Field) 7, MH 5, Pence 5, BJ 4, Perry 2, RS 1
Micah Cohen on Twitter: "And finally, totally subjective odds for the 2016 democrats, from @NateSilver538, @ForecasterEnten and me http://t.co/3qL8GU8zIn"
| - | Micah | Nate | Harry |
| B. Sanders | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| H. Clinton | 76 | 75 | 90 |
| M. O'Malley | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| J. Biden | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| E. Warren | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| A. Cuomo | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| D. Patrick | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| J. Webb | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| (Field) | 3 | 4 | 2 |
H. Clinton 76, E. Warren 4, J. Biden 4, J. Webb 3, (Field) 3, M. O'Malley 2, A. Cuomo 1, D. Patrick 1, B. Sanders 0