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  #826  
Old 04-26-2016, 01:52 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

A Koch buys the world to teach it to sing in perfect harmony.
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  #827  
Old 04-26-2016, 08:04 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

Quote:
Originally Posted by davidm View Post
But this is getting too philosophical. Consider two propositions:

2000: Even though you prefer Nader, you should vote for Gore, because Nader has no chance to win, and Gore is less objectionable than Bush.

2016: Even though you prefer Sanders, you should vote for Clinton, because Sanders has no chance to win, and Clinton is less objectionable than Trump/Cruz.

The problem is that these two propositions, though constructed identically, are disanalogous. While it was true that in 2000 Nader had no chance to win, it’s not true that in 2016, Sanders has no chance to win. Indeed, national polls have consistently shown Sanders outperforming Clinton against both Trump and Cruz. So, erimir, since you say you are ideologically closest to Sanders, why don’t you vote for him and work for him?
Wait a sec, am I confused? I thought we were talking about voting for Hillary in the presidential election? She is almost certainly going to win the Dem Nominee at this point, but fuck, if we're talking about that then VOTE BERNIE :D The idea that Bernie can't beat Trump/Cruz has long been squashed hasn't it? I don't see press/anyone mentioning that any more, but maybe that is because Hillary as Dem Nom is almost a certainty now?
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  #828  
Old 04-26-2016, 05:03 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

The nominee has not yet been selected. That happens at the convention, as I understood it....but then, I'm no Democrat, I'm just registered as one to vote for Bernie in my state's closed primary. After that, I'll revert to my 'Not Affiliated With Any Political Party' status and my vote will be secret.
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  #829  
Old 04-26-2016, 05:45 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

Quote:
Originally Posted by godfry n. glad View Post
The nominee has not yet been selected. That happens at the convention, as I understood it...
Hillary leads in pledged delegates and the popular vote. Most likely, she will come into the national convention with a 200-300 lead in pledged delegates.

More than enough superdelegates have committed to her for there to be no question that she will be the nominee before the convention.

The idea that Bernie has any chance of flipping superdelegates is a fantasy, because:
  • Hillary will have the lead in the popular vote
  • She will have the lead in pledged delegates
  • Bernie has been running against the "establishment" but will be asking for their support
  • Bernie has done almost nothing to help the party in down ballot races
  • Bernie's fans have been harassing superdelegates and insulting them, which regardless of whether you think it is deserved, is no way to win them over

After today, Bernie will need to win your state by like 50 pts, and California by close to 30 pts. Winning Oregon by 40+ pts would not be so hard if it were an open caucus, like Washington. But it is a closed primary, so it is likely to be a lot closer than WA was. And the polls do not indicate that those kinds of landslides are at all likely to happen in those states we have polls for - he trails in Indiana, New Jersey and California. It's not enough to win them, he needs to win big, and he's far off from that goal.
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  #830  
Old 04-26-2016, 06:50 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

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Originally Posted by godfry n. glad View Post
The nominee has not yet been selected. That happens at the convention, as I understood it....but then, I'm no Democrat, I'm just registered as one to vote for Bernie in my state's closed primary.
In recent modern elections (every one I've been aware of in my lifetime), the nominee has been chosen well before the actual convention, and the primary opponents have stepped aside. The nominating process then is a formality and done for show. This lets the convention all about selling the nominee to the party and the public. That's the goal of each of the major parties.

Even in the 2008 primary between Obama and Clinton, once Obama looked like he was on the way to victory, Clinton made a deal and stepped aside, leaving Obama as the only remaining candidate. Maybe this year, if Sanders doesn't step aside, the voting will be an actual vote which needs to be correctly tallied.

Maybe that's good for the Democrats, because it might prove some drama for the process, and make it seem more interesting.

The Republicans, it seems, are going to have an actual contested election.
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  #831  
Old 04-27-2016, 12:02 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

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Originally Posted by specious_reasons View Post
Maybe that's good for the Democrats, because it might prove some drama for the process, and make it seem more interesting.

The Republicans, it seems, are going to have an actual contested election.
I certainly hope so. Lots of acrimony. I'm hoping for a brokered convention that denies the Donald and he pisses all over everyone.

As for the Democrats, yeah...show.

I assume redirection of resources to targeted Congressional races has already begun. I suspect it's going to be ugly because I'm betting that's where the Koch Bros have diverted their attention...to buying more better Congresscritters.
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  #832  
Old 04-27-2016, 02:37 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

After tonight’s gruesome results, it’s very evident that barring something totally unforeseen, the nominees will be Clinton and Trump. A page one article in the NY Times today and an op-ed piece in the same paper show why Democrats may live to regret spurning Bernie. In any event, in November, I will write in Bernie.

Hurt by Free Trade and Moving to Extremes

Pennsylvania, Where Everyone is ‘Furious’

The Rust Belt states, where people know they’ve been fucked six ways of Sunday by Clintonista “free trade,” are ripe for the taking by Trump vs. Clinton. But Bernie would win those states against Trump. If Trump takes those states and holds on to the Red States, which he almost certainly will, he’s in.

Note the Bernie supporter interviewed. If it’s Clinton vs. Trump, he’s voting for Trump. He won’t be alone.
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  #833  
Old 04-27-2016, 02:38 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

I don't know how egregiously this misrepresents davidm's opinion the last few pages, since I've only had barely enough free time to skim, but strategic voting isn't just a thing cowardly not-real-lefties do. It's a mathematical necessity in a system like ours - and I mean the way we determine winners, not the usual pariah of the two-party system, because the two-party system is another consequence of the way we determine winners. Because of math. So unless you've got things in motion to change that, then hell the fuck yes you should vote for the lesser of two evils. Voting for obviously non-viable third-party candidates, and to a lesser extent staying home, is as good as voting for the other party, because that's exactly the effect it has. Because of math. The notion that you shouldn't vote for Gore or Hilary or whoever because they're not left enough when the only other option on the table is far-far-far-noImeanwayfartherthanthat right is incredibly self-defeating, especially in a country where a huge swath of the population loves candidates like that. If we had some other methods in place, proportional representation or preference or approval voting, it'd be a whole different song, but we have to work with what's in front of us.
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  #834  
Old 04-27-2016, 02:50 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

I might even vote for the 'lesser evil'. Just not sure that's Killary.
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  #835  
Old 04-27-2016, 03:00 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

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Originally Posted by Watser? View Post
I might even vote for the 'lesser evil'. Just not sure that's Killary.
Yeah that is a real bitch, innit? Because as I noted upthread, on a number of key issues, the lesser evil might just be the short-fingered vulgarian. Surely a vast number of Rust Belters who have been screwed by "free trade" will figure it that way.
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  #836  
Old 04-27-2016, 04:43 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

Resetting red and blue in the rust belt
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  #837  
Old 04-27-2016, 05:05 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

Interesting take on the short-fingered vulgarian and the military. Bottom line: they're not happy with him.

Quote:
His sex life in the 1980s was “my personal Vietnam,” he said.
:yup:

Trump: what America needs -- and deserves.
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  #838  
Old 04-27-2016, 05:50 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

Quote:
Originally Posted by davidm View Post
Pennsylvania, Where Everyone is ‘Furious’

The Rust Belt states, where people know they’ve been fucked six ways of Sunday by Clintonista “free trade,” are ripe for the taking by Trump vs. Clinton. But Bernie would win those states against Trump. If Trump takes those states and holds on to the Red States, which he almost certainly will, he’s in.

Note the Bernie supporter interviewed. If it’s Clinton vs. Trump, he’s voting for Trump. He won’t be alone.
The most recent poll of Pennsylvania finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 15 points.

Ripe for the taking!
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Voting for obviously non-viable third-party candidates, and to a lesser extent staying home, is as good as voting for the other party, because that's exactly the effect it has. Because of math.
Well, to be fair, it's exactly half as bad as voting for the other party.

In other news...

Bernie Sanders will remain a Democrat, and will support Hillary Clinton if she's the nominee







Bernie Sanders, despite some worrying behavior before, seems to be of the opinion that Hillary is by far the lesser of two evils, and that it is important that she is elected and not Cruz or Trump. But what does that guy know, anyway?

If this is indicative of the remainder of his campaign, then if I vote in the DC primary, I will probably vote for him because I support shaping the Democratic platform in that manner.

There's only one other relevant and contested line on the DC ballot, an at-large council member. I guess I should look into that...
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  #839  
Old 04-27-2016, 06:07 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

Yeah, Hillary Clinton leads Trump by 15 points in Pennsylvania. That's nice. Let's wait and see what happens on Election Day, the only poll that counts.

I'm old enough to remember Jimmy Carter come roaring out of the Democratic convention in 1976 with a 30-point lead over President Ford. He won by the skin of his teeth.

I also distinctly remember how pundits said, in 1980, that Reagan was unelectable, even if he won the G.O.P. nomination -- which they maintained he could not do. :lol:
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  #840  
Old 04-27-2016, 07:15 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

Right, we get it.

The evidence of Bernie's advantage over Trump in general election polls in unassailable, but general election polls showing a large advantage for Hillary over Trump can be hand-waved away.

As you say, we'll see.
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  #841  
Old 04-27-2016, 05:11 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

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Originally Posted by erimir View Post
Right, we get it.

The evidence of Bernie's advantage over Trump in general election polls in unassailable, but general election polls showing a large advantage for Hillary over Trump can be hand-waved away.

As you say, we'll see.
Well, of course, I never said that evidence of Bernie's advantage over Trump in general election polls was unassailable, did I? This is just you putting words in my mouth again, as when you ridiculously claimed that I did not think Hillary Clinton was a person. (What do i supposedly think she is, then? A chatbot?)

I have merely pointed out that there is now a pretty long-lasting trend of Bernie outperforming Clinton against Trump. Both lead Trump in the polls, but Bernie has a stronger edge. Of course the polls can (and almost certainly will) change in unpredictable ways after the conventions, but the idea that Bernie would have a better chance to beat Trump has some good evidence for it. Bernie is likely to have a stronger appeal to independents than Clinton and he certainly stands to fare better among the Rust Belt workers than Clinton would; the Rust Belt, I think, is Clinton's greatest vulnerability (among traditional blue states).
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  #842  
Old 04-27-2016, 06:15 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

Quote:
Originally Posted by davidm View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Watser? View Post
I might even vote for the 'lesser evil'. Just not sure that's Killary.


Yeah that is a real bitch, innit? Because as I noted upthread, on a number of key issues, the lesser evil might just be the short-fingered vulgarian. Surely a vast number of Rust Belters who have been screwed by "free trade" will figure it that way.
My problem with this interpretation is, as erimir pointed out, it relies on assuming the worst of Hilary's statements and the best of Trumps. The core of my objections to Trump do NOT revolve around his ultra-neo-conservative foreign or economic policy.
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  #843  
Old 04-27-2016, 08:32 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

Quote:
Originally Posted by davidm View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by erimir View Post
Right, we get it.

The evidence of Bernie's advantage over Trump in general election polls in unassailable, but general election polls showing a large advantage for Hillary over Trump can be hand-waved away.

As you say, we'll see.
Well, of course, I never said that evidence of Bernie's advantage over Trump in general election polls was unassailable, did I?
I don't see you applying much hedging, so you must think it's pretty strong.

Otherwise you wouldn't be so confident in your statements.

For example, you also said
Quote:
If Trump takes those states and holds on to the Red States, which he almost certainly will
There's no evidence for this statement, none.

You know what evidence (some of it is quite weak, of course, due to being so early) there IS of general polls from some of those red/purple states?

Clinton leads Trump in recent polls of North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia, and leads or ties in even frickin' Utah*. She leads in swing/purplish states like VA, OH, FL, NH, MI, WI, PA. He barely leads in Texas, Missouri, Mississippi.

Hispanics HATE Trump (his favorability is -76). Hispanics are even naturalizing so they can vote against Trump. In California, voter registration by Hispanics has increased significantly from previous years. This is likely the case in Texas, Arizona and Florida as well, so it's not at all far-fetched to think he will significantly underperform Romney in those states (but sure, he'll probably still win Texas).

Now, obviously, some of that is undecideds who will break for the GOP, and Trump will probably win most of those red states I mentioned. But the idea that he will "almost certainly" win all of the red states is not supported. But clearly my using hyperbole to point out that you are dismissing the evidence for Hillary beating Trump is just ridiculous.

*Utah polls had a very small sample, but they did support Cruz and Kasich by 30-40 pt margins against both Clinton and Sanders, which fits with 2008/2012 results.
Quote:
This is just you putting words in my mouth again, as when you ridiculously claimed that I did not think Hillary Clinton was a person. (What do i supposedly think she is, then? A chatbot?)
Saying "everything" she does politically is a "naked political calculation" (which you did not later water down) does not make her a chatbot. I wasn't implying that you thought that, but I'm sure you already know that's an idiotic straw man.

But it does seem to dismiss the possibility that she does anything (in politics) because she has sincere beliefs and emotions about politics or that she wants to achieve things she sees as good (in a moral sense, not "good for her"). You know, typical human-like qualities. The clue to your statement implying that is how the word "everything" does not admit exceptions.

But if you continue to pretend to be outraged at my hyperbole that I used to point out how ridiculous your hyperbole is, maybe I'll eventually buy that bullshit.
Quote:
Bernie is likely to have a stronger appeal to independents than Clinton
I don't know which group you're talking about for sure, but I will say that people who identify as independents are not identical to swing voters.

Most independents consistently vote for one party or another, and I don't see evidence that Bernie is winning over voters who would've voted for a Republican nor that he's winning a lot of voters who didn't vote for Obama (other than first-time voters, of course). He is doing better among anti-establishment Democrats/liberals, some of whom might have sat out 2012, some of whom might've sat out this year if not for Bernie, and some of whom might sit it out because of Hillary being the nominee. But it is not nearly as large of a group as you think it is.
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  #844  
Old 04-27-2016, 08:48 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

Quote:
Originally Posted by erimir View Post
Saying "everything" she does politically is a "naked political calculation" (which you did not later water down) does not make her a chatbot. I wasn't implying that you thought that, but I'm sure you already know that's an idiotic straw man.
No, you were only saying (not even merely implying) that I didn't think she was a person. But no, that's not an idiotic strawman of my position. lol.

If she's not a person, what do you think I think she is? :shrug:
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  #845  
Old 04-27-2016, 11:24 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

In a move of astounding desperation, Ted Cruz has announced Carly Fiorina will be his running mate, should he be the nominee.

The wonders of this GOP primary never cease.
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  #846  
Old 04-28-2016, 12:00 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

So ya got butchered like a hog in all five of last night's primaries? No problem! Just double down by naming a running mate! And be sure to choose the failed HP executive so that all the Republi-ladies in Indiana will vote for you.

YES WE CANADA!
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  #847  
Old 04-29-2016, 05:32 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

The lesser of two evils is not at all clear in 2016

I will add that I think Trump, if elected, will do nothing to impede gay or transgender rights and will not appoint Scalias to the Supreme Court. All his rhetoric suggesting he will do such stuff is malarky to gull the rubes he knows he must court to win the nomination of the Dumb Party. The G.O.P. elites hate and fear Trump (just check out the hysterics at the Red State blogs) because they know he essentially is a socially liberal Democrat from New York who in the past has supported abortion rights, gun control, higher taxes on the "hedge fund guys" and has donated to and schmoozed with Hillary and other Demos. Additionally, on foreign policy, Hillary is the interventionist, neocon hawk in this race. Trump's recent foreign policy speech deployed the rhetoric of a fourth-grader, probably because Trump knows that most Americans have a fourth-grade mentality, but certain core principles he expressed were sound, foremost among them: do not go abroad in search of dragons to slay. Hillary, of course, is the biggest dragon slayer there is. How may times, dating back to 2008, has she mused aloud about "obliterating" Iran!

No, indeed, even if you support the "lesser of two evils" voting idea, it's not at all clear who the lesser evil is here.
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  #848  
Old 04-29-2016, 08:13 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

Counterpoint:

Who Is the Lesser of Salon's #BernieorBusters? The Answer Is Unclear - Lawyers, Guns & Money

I am no great fan of Clinton’s, but the probability that the short-fingered vulgarian of all people would be a lesser evil is absolutely microscopic. At best.
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  #849  
Old 04-29-2016, 09:34 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

Enjoying erimir v davidm

Quote:
Originally Posted by davidm View Post
... I don’t believe a word that comes out of her mouth. Everything that she does is naked political calculation. Remember how years ago she was against gay marriage, and now she’s for it? So, what — she regrets her Iraq war vote now because she really regrets it, or does she “regret” it because it’s the right thing to say to win more votes in the current climate? Does anyone really doubt the answer to this question?
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Originally Posted by davidm View Post
... I think Trump, if elected, will do nothing to impede gay or transgender rights and will not appoint Scalias to the Supreme Court. All his rhetoric suggesting he will do such stuff is malarky to gull the rubes he knows he must court to win the nomination of the Dumb Party.
My emphasis of your cognitive dissonance, David.

:popcorn:
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  #850  
Old 04-29-2016, 10:33 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

Where is my cognitive dissonance? I'm saying both Clinton and Trump lie to gain support form their respective voting bases. Seems pretty consistent to me.
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