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  #26  
Old 06-02-2014, 02:42 AM
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Default Re: Oh yeah, Afghanistan...

Aren't there only something like a dozen which the US actually wants to keep, the other 100 have the minor problem that no other country wants to take them?

In the meantime, a General is putting out a book entitled "why we lost"
http://time.com/109981/general-wars-...q-why-we-lost/

His point of view matches with what has been mine for some time. If you're going to go in and make a point of staying, you need to commit to doing it for some decades. No politician on an 8 year election cycle is going to do that. A short, glorious war is what the voters want. At least, it's what the politicians think the voters want.

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  #27  
Old 06-02-2014, 08:09 AM
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Default Re: Oh yeah, Afghanistan...

Quote:
Originally Posted by California Tanker View Post
Aren't there only something like a dozen which the US actually wants to keep,
Miami Herald, June 2013:
Quote:
In January 2010, the task force revealed that it classified 48 Guantánamo captives as dangerous but ineligible for trial because of a lack of evidence, or because the evidence was too tainted.
...>snip<...
According to the list, the men designated for indefinite detention are 26 Yemenis, 12 Afghans, 3 Saudis, 2 Kuwaitis, 2 Libyans, a Kenyan, a Moroccan and a Somali.
Quote:
Originally Posted by California Tanker View Post
the other 100 have the minor problem that no other country wants to take them?
The largest contingent by far is Yemeni, followed by Afghans, then Saudis. Then you get down to five Algerians, five Tunisians and five Pakistanis, and then fewer than that for a number of other countries. So let's see if your question can be answered for the majority of prisoners.
Reuters, Aug 2013:
Quote:
[President of Yemen] Hadi met Obama in the Oval Office a day after he tried to persuade U.S. senators to send home dozens of Yemeni detainees held at the controversial U.S. facility in Cuba.
...>snip<...
Yemen's support is critical to closing Guantanamo because 56 of the 86 detainees who have been cleared for transfer or release are from the impoverished country on the Arabian Peninsula.
The US refuses to release the cleared for release prisoners because Yemen is, according to the US, unstable and a hotbed of radicalism.
Yemen, where the 79 US drone strikes and 58 non-combatant deaths since 2012 have been making Yemen... more stable?
Only a 22% civilian kill rate on those stabilizing drone strikes for 2002-2014 in Yemen. Depending of course, on how you define "combatant":
ProPublica, June 2012:
Quote:
In a lengthy front-page story last week exploring President Obama's use of drone strikes in countries including Pakistan and Yemen, the New York Times reported that the president had "embraced a disputed method for counting civilian casualties that did little to box him in."

Citing "several administration officials," the Times reported that this method "in effect counts all military-age males in a strike zone as combatants ... unless there is explicit intelligence posthumously proving them innocent."
Afghan prisoners:
Washington Post, Nov 2013:
Quote:
[President of Afghanistan] Karzai told Rice that he would sign only after the United States helps his government begin peace talks with the Taliban and agrees to release all 17 Afghan citizens being held in the Guantanamo Bay detention center in Cuba, according to Afghan and U.S. officials.
Saudi prisoners:
Guardian, Dec 2013:
Quote:
Two Guantanamo Bay prisoners have been transferred to Saudi Arabia as part of a renewed effort to close the detention camp.
Algeria?
Guardian, Aug 2013:
Quote:
The US Department of Defense announced on Thursday it has released two men from Guantánamo Bay prison to their home nation of Algeria.

A Pentagon statement said that the men, Nabil Said Hadjarab and Mutia Sadiq Ahmad Sayyab, had been approved for transfer after a review directed by President Obama. It said it was grateful to the Algerian government for accepting the men.
Tunisia?
Huffington Post, Sept 2011:
Quote:
Tunisia will soon send a mission to the United States to plead for the repatriation of its five remaining citizens held at the Guantanamo Bay detention center, a Justice Ministry representative said Wednesday.
Pakistan?
There were 60 Pakistani prisoners at Guantanamo; 55 have been repatriated to Pakistan. Looks like Pakistan will take their citizens.

The US prevents the release of prisoners from Guantanamo; the majority of the prisoners are from countries that want their citizens returned.

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  #28  
Old 06-02-2014, 05:47 PM
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Default Re: Oh yeah, Afghanistan...

Quote:
Originally Posted by California Tanker View Post
Aren't there only something like a dozen which the US actually wants to keep, the other 100 have the minor problem that no other country wants to take them?

In the meantime, a General is putting out a book entitled "why we lost"
Lieutenant General Daniel Bolger: New Book, ‘Why We Lost’ - TIME

His point of view matches with what has been mine for some time. If you're going to go in and make a point of staying, you need to commit to doing it for some decades. No politician on an 8 year election cycle is going to do that. A short, glorious war is what the voters want. At least, it's what the politicians think the voters want.

NTM
I know we're trying to do it, but we really can't afford a permanent occupation army in every trouble spot in the world.
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  #29  
Old 06-02-2014, 08:09 PM
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Default Re: Oh yeah, Afghanistan...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dingfod View Post
I know we're trying to do it, but we really can't afford a permanent occupation army in every trouble spot in the world.
I agree, but isn't that a question more of "Should we go in there to begin with?"
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  #30  
Old 06-03-2014, 12:31 AM
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Default Re: Oh yeah, Afghanistan...

Quote:
Originally Posted by California Tanker View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dingfod View Post
I know we're trying to do it, but we really can't afford a permanent occupation army in every trouble spot in the world.
I agree, but isn't that a question more of "Should we go in there to begin with?"
And if we do, shouldn't we do it with enough force to actually subdue the country, not just a few cities and outlying bases.
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  #31  
Old 12-08-2014, 07:43 PM
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Default Re: Oh yeah, Afghanistan...

NYT Dec 8 2014 on the end of current US combat operations in Afghanistan:

Quote:
More than 5,000 members of the Afghan security forces have been killed this year, eclipsing previous years, and surpassing the entire coalition death toll since the invasion began in 2001. The deaths mount even as many soldiers and police officers are reluctant to leave their bases, and the deadly attacks have continued into the cold months when fighting typically stops.
...>snip<...
Under the new mission, called Operation Resolute Support, the American military will largely advise the Afghan military at the highest levels. Though President Obama has authorized the use of combat forces to target leaders of Al Qaeda and the Taliban who pose a threat to remaining coalition troops, as well as the use of air support to aid troubled Afghan forces, the nature of the war will be starkly different for the 10,800 American soldiers in country next year.

While he outlined shortcomings, General Anderson, who has run the day-to-day mission since February, also sounded notes of hope in the 45-minute interview after the ceremony. On the tactical level, Afghan forces could beat the Taliban, if properly motivated, he said. The new Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani, was committed to merit-based appointments. Tolerance for corruption, at least publicly, seems to have dropped.
I'm glad the US is (somewhat) out. I understand the concern about the stability of the country where the US and the Soviet Union spent nine years fighting a proxy cold war, and then the US occupied for 14 years most recently, fighting a war with part of the populace. Afghanistan, a country torn by poverty, illiteracy, fundamentalist Wahhabist teachings, weapons, land mines, and a government riddled with corruption and an inability to govern rural areas of the nation. I don't know what chances Afghanistan has going forward. I just don't know what reasonably can be accomplished or held with US forces there, other than creating a focus point for nationalists' and militants' anger toward an occupying force; and continuing the pattern of constant US warfare.
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  #32  
Old 12-09-2014, 07:08 PM
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Default Re: Oh yeah, Afghanistan...

Quote:
Originally Posted by chunksmediocrites View Post
I just don't know what reasonably can be accomplished or held with US forces there, other than creating a focus point for nationalists' and militants' anger toward an occupying force; and continuing the pattern of constant US warfare.
That's not nothing.
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  #33  
Old 05-21-2017, 05:54 PM
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Catching up on Afghanistan.

October 2015, NYT:
Quote:
WASHINGTON — President Obama halted the withdrawal of American military forces from Afghanistan on Thursday, announcing that the United States will keep thousands of troops in the country through the end of his term in 2017 and indefinitely prolonging the American role in a war that has already lasted 14 years.
As the article points out, this flies in the face of Obama's original campaign promises and the motivation of many voters- to end the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Quote:
...with Thursday’s announcement, Mr. Obama leaves a commitment of thousands of troops — and the decision about how and when to end the war in Afghanistan — to his successor.
Seemed like a good idea at the time?
Quote:
The current American force in Afghanistan of 9,800 troops will remain in place through most of 2016 under the administration’s revised plans, before dropping to about 5,500 at the end of next year or in early 2017, Mr. Obama said. He called it a “modest but meaningful expansion of our presence” in that country.
Jan 2016 WaPo:
Quote:
Top U.S. military commanders, who only a few months ago were planning to pull the last American troops out of Afghanistan by year’s end, are now quietly talking about an American commitment that could keep thousands of troops in the country for decades.
...>snip<...
...it highlights a major shift for the American military, which has spent much of the past decade racing to hit milestones as part of its broader “exit strategy” from Afghanistan and Iraq. These days, that phrase has largely disappeared from the military’s lexicon.
The article outlines a lot of the hurdles and policy considerations.

Hurdles: Afghanistan had no educated class that could step into the role of civil servants, let alone military roles like pilots. Afghanistan has very limited infrastructure outside the cities; the Taliban are composed mostly of the expansive Pashtun tribal regions of Afghanistan (the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan, at 42%), with Taliban crossing the permeable Afghan-Pakistan border and residing in both nations. Turns out they aren't going away.

Policy considerations: is this going to be another long-term US military presence like in Korea, or could it be eventually a model closer to the long-term US military presence in Colombia, or is it possible for the Taliban and the Afghan government to reach a peace accord. If the US leaves, does the Afghan government collapse, the Taliban step in, and any move away from failed state status is lost?

There is a reason Afghanistan is struggling. Afghanistan's urbanization is 24%. Cities mean services, infrastructure, jobs, education. Three out of four Afghans live in rural areas- where formal education has historically been absent or provided by Wahabbist-run and funded madrassas. Worldwide average urbanization is 54%; US is 81% by comparison.

42% of the Afghan population is 14 years old or younger. Compare that to the US, where 27% of the population is 21 years old or younger. Literacy rates are around 50% for men and boys, less than 25% for women and girls in Afghanistan.

On the subject of defense contractors:
MilitaryTimes.com, Aug 2016:
Quote:
The latest figures available, for the first few months of 2016, show nearly 29,000 defense contractors still in Afghanistan, with fewer than 9,000 U.S. troops stationed there. About two-thirds of the contractors were foreign nationals, but only about 10 percent were providing security services.
On the subject of black-site prisons:
Parwan Detention Facility is the name of the prison at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan that was used to torture prisoners of the US and hold them indefinitely, until it was handed over to the Afghan government in March 2013. The last of the US-held prisoners in Afghanistan would not be resolved until a year and a half later.
Guardian, Dec 2014:
Quote:
The US on Wednesday released the final three detainees from the Parwan detention center in Afghanistan, ending the US operation of any prisons in the country after more than a decade of war, the Pentagon said.
That's a big deal and a positive step; one less US-run black-site detention center.
Bagram is still a target for the Taliban:
Suicide bomb attack near Bagram Dec 2015
Suicide bomb attack on Bagram Nov 2016

President Ashraf Ghani was elected in 2014. In September of 2016, he signed a peace treaty with the group Hezb-i-Islami, seen as largely symbolic. This move was criticized by human rights organizations, as Gulbeddin Hekmatyar- the leader of Hezb-i-Islami- is a war criminal and the group committed documented atrocities. The rationale for the move is Ghani showing militant groups within Afghanistan a path forward other than war, and particularly attempting to get the Taliban to the table.
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  #34  
Old 06-11-2019, 01:43 AM
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USNews and World Report, April 2019:
Afghanistan’s Hired Guns: The number of private contractors in America’s longest war jumped at an unprecedented rate in the last three months.
Quote:
More than 17,000 uniformed troops from NATO and partner countries are currently operating in Afghanistan in support of local forces, up from roughly 13,000 when President Donald Trump took office. Of those, roughly 8,500 are Americans. Another 5,500 U.S. troops remain in Afghanistan for the separate mission of hunting insurgent forces like the Islamic State group and elements of the Taliban.
Or another way to put this mildly appreciative distinction, is there are 14,000 US troops in Afghanistan.

Quote:
The last time the number of private security contractors exceeded 5,000 was in April 2014 during the height of the Obama administration's effort to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan. When Trump entered the White House in January 2017, the number stood at just over 3,400.

The new data comes amid concerns that the administration could increasingly turn to private companies to carry out the war. Officials and analysts, meanwhile, are raising alarm that the U.S. government is concealing the situation on the ground.
Let's skip ahead to April of this year:
Quote:
Of the 5,883 security contractors outlined in the latest reports from U.S. Central Command, 2,567 of them are armed private security contractors. The rest provide support functions, like driving vehicles or other logistics work related to security activities.
This is way up.
May 2019:
US-Taliban talks for peace in Afghanistan: What we know so far
Quote:
Khalilzad, an Afghan-American diplomat who served as US ambassador to the United Nations (2007-2009), Iraq (2005-2007) and Afghanistan (2003-2005), is leading the US side in the talks.

The Taliban is represented by Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, the group's office chief and Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, cofounder of the movement who was released in October from a Pakistani prison.

The Taliban has long demanded the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, which has been a sticking point in the meetings between the US and the group in Doha and has blocked progress in the talks.

In previous rounds of talks, the two sides agreed on a "draft framework" that included the withdrawal of US troops, a discussion on Taliban's commitment that the Afghan territory would not be used by international "terror" groups, and that a ceasefire would be implemented across the country.

But the Taliban insists it will not commit to any of these things until the US announces a withdrawal timeline.
If only there was some way to solve this issue.

As pointed out before: soldiers being sent to fight in US war on terror now born after 9/11 occurred- yep that's 18 years of continual, unending war.
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  #35  
Old 06-11-2019, 03:38 AM
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Default Re: Oh yeah, Afghanistan...

One of the few wise things P.J. O'Rourke ever said was, "A smart foreign policy is one that keeps you out of Afghanistan."
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  #36  
Old 10-11-2019, 12:17 AM
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UN declares US strikes in Afghanistan unlawful
Quote:
A United Nations report issued Wednesday deemed U.S. airstrikes that killed or injured at least 39 Afghan civilians unlawful.

The May airstrikes, which hit dozens of sites in the western provinces of Nimroz and Farah, were targeting what the U.S. believed to be drug labs used to fund the Taliban.

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) and U.N. Human Rights Office said funding activities are considered civilian objectives under international law, and workers at such facilities are therefore civilians.
I already covered the September drone strike in the drone thread but I'll mention it again here:
U.S. drone strike kills 30 pine nut farm workers in Afghanistan
Quote:
Haidar Khan, who owns the pine nut fields, said about 150 workers were there for harvesting, with some still missing as well as the confirmed dead and injured.

A survivor of the drone strike said about 200 laborers were sleeping in five tents pitched near the farm when the attack happened.
Opinion piece: The War in Afghanistan Turns 18, and No One Notices
Quote:
One wonders whether Trump would take greater interest in the longest official war in U.S. history if he had real estate interests in Kabul. He made absolutely no mention of Afghanistan on the anniversary of the war. But neither did most members of Congress.

There was a near blackout of the anniversary in the media as well. Of the major newspapers, only the New York Times paid some attention to it with a lengthy special called ‘We Are Inside the Fire’: An Oral History of the War in Afghanistan. While the report centered on the voices of Afghans, the paper minimized the role of the U.S.
Air strikes are occurring with high regularity: October first, second, and third all had multiple US airstrikes in Afghanistan, with an additional air strike October sixth.
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  #37  
Old 11-06-2019, 12:14 AM
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Oct 21, 2019: US has quietly reduced troops in Afghanistan by 2,000
Quote:
The reduction means there are now 13,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, down from the 15,000 authorized top troop levels in place when Miller took over command a year ago.

The troop reduction appears to have taken place gradually over the past year and separate from peace talks with the Taliban, where the U.S. offered to reduce troop levels to 8,600.

With 17 U.S. military service members killed in combat this year, 2019 has been the deadliest year for U.S. troops in Afghanistan since the end of 2014 when the combat mission transitioned to a training, advise and assist mission to help Afghan security forces.
Let's see one of the examples of the US in its helper role and how that works out; also, for the "Where's Waldo" bonus catch, howdy CIA!
Oct. 30, 2019: A CIA-Backed Militia Targeted Clinics in Afghanistan, Killing Medical Workers and Civilians
Quote:
The March raid on the Swedish Committee for Afghanistan, or SCA, clinic in Wardak, which has not been previously reported, was one of a growing number of assaults by CIA-backed Afghan militia units on medical facilities in Afghanistan, according to witnesses and documents seen by The Intercept.

The secretive, pro-government Afghan militia blamed for several such attacks in Wardak is known as 01. Ostensibly overseen by the National Directorate of Security, Afghanistan’s intelligence service, the unit and its counterparts across the country are trained and directed by the CIA.

The 01, which operates in central Afghanistan, including in Wardak, Logar, and Ghazni provinces, is known for rolling into villages at night and leaving a trail of death and destruction. The units are “responsible for extrajudicial executions and enforced disappearances, indiscriminate airstrikes, attacks on medical facilities, and other violations of international humanitarian law or the laws of war,” said Patricia Gossman, associate Asia director for Human Rights Watch, who wrote a report to be released Wednesday night on abuses by CIA-backed militias in Afghanistan. Many witnesses to night raids say 01 is deliberately targeting civilians.
And let's see how other operations through the National Directorate of Security are going: they don't attribute it to The 01, but frankly not sure who else they have running these kinds of ops; they may have other death squads.
Oct 8, 2019: Afghan intelligence confirms death of AQIS emir
Quote:
The raid against AQIS in Musla Qala only came to the attention of the press after it was reported that scores of civilians were killed during the operations. Although accounts are chaotic, it appears that the bulk of the civilians who were killed were traveling in a wedding party in the district.
That was October. You know, in that war the US started and has been running continuously for 18 years, that is barely mentioned at all ever.
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  #38  
Old 12-26-2019, 08:25 PM
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Where Is the Outrage Over the War in Afghanistan? A new Washington Post report proving the longest war in American history has been sold on lies for 20 years causes barely a ripple.
I'm linking to this Nation article because WaPo paywall.
Quote:
Douglas Lute, a general who oversaw the mission under both George W. Bush and Barack Obama, said in 2015, “We were devoid of a fundamental understanding of Afghanistan—we didn’t know what we were doing.” He also told interviewers, “If the American people knew the magnitude of this dysfunction…2,400 lives lost.” According to the newspaper, Lutes blamed “the deaths of U.S. military personnel on bureaucratic breakdowns among Congress, the Pentagon and the State Department.”

In granular detail, the report confirms the most dire existing accounts of the war: the lack of cultural awareness of the American military, the failure to have any clear sense of mission, the corruption Americans brought to the country by flooding it with aid money, and the contempt Americans have for many of their allies. One military trainer claimed that a third of Afghan police he worked with were “drug addicts or Taliban.” A USAID official said, “Thinking we could build the military that fast and that well was insane.”
The military issued a public report on opinions gleaned from service personnel on the efficacy of mission, etc. and WaPo sued twice to get access to the interviews, which presented a much more candid and damning picture of failure at numerous levels- the consensus being that the Afghanistan war and occupation was and is a failure by the US and our being there only makes things worse.

In November President Trump pardoned two US soldiers convicted of war crimes in Afghanistan.
Quote:
The pardons included Army First Lieutenant Clint Lorance, who was convicted of ordering his soldiers to open fire on three unarmed men in Afghanistan, and Army Major Mathew Golsteyn, who admitted to killing an unarmed man in Afghanistan after the man had been identified as a possible bomb maker.
Also from November:
Bombs, missiles falling at record pace in long-running Afghanistan war
Quote:
From Jan. 1 through October, U.S.-led forces have used 6,208 missiles and bombs in Afghanistan. That compares with 5,982 for the same period in 2018, which saw the most airstrikes of any year since the Taliban was toppled in 2001.
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  #39  
Old 02-09-2020, 05:04 PM
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US dropped record number of bombs on Afghanistan last year
Quote:
The US dropped more bombs on Afghanistan in 2019 than any other year since the Pentagon began keeping a tally in 2006, reflecting an apparent effort to force concessions from the Taliban at the negotiating table.

According to new figures released by US central command, US warplanes dropped 7,423 bombs and other munitions on Afghanistan, a nearly eightfold increase from 2015.

The increasing intensity of the air campaign has been accompanied by an increase in civilian casualties attributed to US forces. According to UN data, the US accounted for half the 1,149 civilian deaths attributed to pro-government forces in Afghanistan over the first three-quarters of 2019.

The Taliban and other insurgent groups were responsible for 1,207 civilian deaths, according to the same figures, as the Taliban also stepped up its attacks over the summer. In July last year, the UN recorded the highest number of civilian casualties in a single month since the organisation began documenting civilian casualties in Afghanistan in 2009.

2 US soldiers killed, 6 wounded in Afghanistan attack
Quote:
KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Two U.S. soldiers were killed and six wounded in a so-called insider attack in eastern Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province late Saturday when an Afghan dressed in an Afghan army uniform opened fire, the U.S. military said.
Quote:
Six U.S. service members have been killed in Afghanistan since the start of 2020, including Saturday’s casualties. Last year, 22 U.S. service personnel died in combat there.

An Afghan defense ministry official, who was not identified because he was not authorized to speak to the media, said the shooter was an Afghan soldier who had argued with the U.S. forces before opening fire. He was not a Taliban infiltrator, the official said.
There was an expert testifying before Congress recently, who was in regular contact with Afghanis across Afghanistan, especially younger Afghanis trying to rebuild their war-torn country. But he said when he asked these bright, motivated, community activists what they would do to solve issues and problems in their regions: every single one said you talk to the local Taliban and work it out with them- the actual regional power. Not one of them said you talk to US forces, or the Afghan government. The purpose of this allegory was not to give the Taliban credence or legitimacy; it was to demonstrate the reality of conditions on the ground and where power actually lies in Afghanistan after 19 years of occupation, which again is the point: the US is not improving conditions for Afghanis, not making the world safer. CIA-backed death squads, war crimes, bombing campaigns, trillions of dollars of what we could have spent on health care, education, infrastructure, climate change.

Endless Conflict in Afghanistan Is Driving a Mental Health Crisis September 2019:
Quote:
A decade ago, Afghanistan was the worst place in the world to be born, according to UNICEF. That may still be true today. Poverty, lack of electricity, lack of clean water, and widespread sexual abuse of women and girls are simply facts of life. The country has seen some 40 years of violence, with 18 uninterrupted years of conflict following the U.S. invasion in 2001. Young Afghans are facing a crisis of hopelessness.

Saturday’s presidential election offers few prospects for relief. After the collapse of U.S.-Taliban peace talks earlier this month, violence has spiked. The Taliban have carried out a string of suicide bombings in Kabul and across the country in the run-up to the vote, which has already been delayed several times over security concerns. In response, U.S. and Afghan forces have ramped up raids and airstrikes. A U.S.-backed Afghan commando raid in Taliban territory earlier this week left up to 40 civilians dead.
Why the Media Is Ignoring the Afghanistan Papers
Quote:
...one major reason that the Afghanistan Papers have received so comparatively little coverage is that everyone is to blame, which means no one has much of an interest in keeping the story alive. There are no hearings, few press gaggles.

George W. Bush started the Afghanistan War and botched it in plenty of ways, not least by starting another war in Iraq. But Barack Obama, despite his obvious skepticism of the war effort, exacerbated Bush’s mistakes by bowing to the Washington foreign policy blob and authorizing a pointless troop surge. Now, although both Democrats and Donald Trump seem to be on the same page about getting the U.S. out of Afghanistan, there has been little progress with peace talks. The pattern across administrations is that any movement toward resolution is usually met with a slow slide back into the status quo, a.k.a. quagmire.

The political press loves the idea of bipartisan cooperation, which plays into a notion of American greatness and its loss. It also thrives on partisan conflict, because conflict drives narrative. It doesn’t really know what to do with bipartisan failure.
We need braver leaders
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