Shocking Prediction! Blue-Bruise-A-Paloozah 2020

[SR71]

Feeling pretty frisky lately, so I'm going way out on a limb here and saying the Democrats are gonna get a proper wave this time out.

Let's go with a bird theme here. Let's begin with my personal feeling back during the part where the senate was refusing to see the perfidious ways of His Vainglorious Preeminence, where I was hoping they hitched their wagon to the wrong stink-heineyed toad licker...

For the nonce I retreat to my faptasy where the rest of the nation makes the GOP wear the tangerine tantrum babby around their neck for killing whatever morsels of legitimacy remained in our political structure the way the crew made the ancient mariner wear the fucking dead albatross. Except that the mariner is the only one to survive the story. Gotta rescript that part.

Now he's been shat upon by a giant black swan, and this is key, because black swans matter, because they're terrible things that everybody sees and experiences all at the same time. There's no amount of hocus pocus razzle dazzle fast talk that can turn his utter shit response to the virus into anything other than utter shit. It's not transmutable by redefinition. It just plain sucked and everybody sees that.

Now there's this thing with the Russian bounties on our troops heads. I don't know how much weight it'll carry, but for all the hoopla over Benghazzi!, the republican congress critters oughta be hysterically poking their own eyes out or something. In any case, they forewent the chance to dump the asshole and they probably have buyers' remorse about it, but there's no backing away from him at this point, even if they try. They're as good as married.

BLM is just the contratemps to his white hot racism. Really puts it on display.

I'll throw in a lame duck, since I think he's through in November. Nothing of any tangible legislative value is going to get through congress, save perhaps more relief funding, and he's too busy wetting his pants to really try and collect his assets into one bag and get them organized into anything other than a chaotic gang at this point.

I think the stench of bird poop has permeated the party so badly it'll get a bunch of republicans ejected from congress as well. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to consider the possibility of taking the senate.

[JoeP]

Did you have to write this down? Now it won't happen.

[lisarea]

It's OK. I know a more powerful spell.

I predict that Trump is going to win. All of the polls and the public sentiment you see right now are only inspiring Trump's massive silent majority to get out and vote, not only for Trump, but straight Trump-supporting Republicans all the way down ticket as well.

We're probably all spending a lot less time out among the rest of the world, so we're even more influenced by our filter bubbles than usual. Like those whose filter bubbles tell them the unruly mobs are coming to storm their own personal Bastilles, we're seeing a widespread popular revolution. But trends are showing that areas with major BLM protests are having fewer new COVID cases than places without them, and the best explanation so far is that it's because a lot more people are staying at home to avoid the protests. So we're seeing a whole lot of misleading vividness.

I'm on Cory Gardner's email list, and he's acting like almost nothing's happening at all. The last one focuses largely on a visit from the head of the USDA and a disaster declaration because of an unseasonable freeze we had in April on the Western Slope. I also saw an article yesterday that mentioned one of his assistants or something started a rumor about anti-fa buses heading to one of those tiny farming towns, which played a part in inciting some violence there.

There are a lot of people we're not paying attention to right now, but they're still around.

IIRC, all the projections showed 90-odd% probability of Clinton winning.

[JoeP]

Originally Posted by lisarea

anti-fa

I see what you're trying to do here but it won't work.

[slimshady2357]

Originally Posted by JoeP

I see what you're trying to do here but it won't work.

It IS working. When lisarea first mentioned it I was like "hey, yeah! that is how it should be said" and started saying it properly, even correcting a couple people. Now Sou is saying it as well. It's spreading.

Anti-fa forever!

[BrotherMan]

Auntie Fah!

[JoeP]

Psych-cop killer, qu'est-ce que c'est
Anti-fa-fa-fa, fa fa fa...

[davidm]

Trump is not going to win. He is going to get beaten like an egg. He is going to get whipped like a race horse down the stretch. When election night is over he is going to be a quivering, slobbering blob of orange marmalade. His horrible reign of error and terror is drawing to a close.

He does not have a majority, silent or otherwise. He did not have a majority in 2016. He lost the popular vote but won by a quirk of the idiotic electoral college. That is not going to happen this time.

The key is to look at the state polls. They are astonishingly awful for Trump. Biden is leading, often comfortably, in eight states that Trump won last time. Trump is ahead in zero states that Hillary won.

Not only that: Trump is ahead by two points in Arkansas, for Zod’s sake! He is barely ahead in Missouri, Utah, and Montana! He is tied in Texas. He is badly losing in the Rust Belt states he won last time to cinch the election. He is well behind in Florida.

The “Clinton had a ninety percent chance of winning” stuff means pretty much nothing. These are Bayesian probabilities, with a prior probabilities assigned and then updated as new information becomes available. I remember helping cover the election in 2016 and by around 10 p.m., it was Trump who was given a ninety percent chance to win.

In any case, probabilities should not be overstated. Polls count much more. If some event has a one in a hundred chance of occurring, this just means that given a hundred trials, we should expect the event to occur once, but this tells you nothing about which trial the event will occur. It could occur on the very first trial. Low probability events happen all the time, but high probability events happen much more often. Trump is going to lose badly.

[lisarea]

No, you are wrong. I am thoroughly convinced that Trump is going to win, and it has nothing at all to do with my lars and penates who ensure that I am always wrong about everything I get too cocksure about.

[beyelzu]

Originally Posted by JoeP

Did you have to write this down? Now it won't happen.

A couple months ago, I started telling GOP assholes that I was fucking online that Trump was gong to lose and the GOP was going to lose the senate.

Many maga dipshits laughed at and/or ridiculed the prediction, and I literally told more than one to remember that I told them and to think of me on election day.

I do think that is going to happen, though I have been shocked and disappointed by elections before.

The last election cycle, more dem incumbent seats were up for grabs. This election was looking potentially good just because of how many GOP seats are up, meanwhile Trump sucking ass is good for the Democrats.

Many assholes could continue to support Trump and lying to themselves, but it is a little harder when his base incompetence is so readily apparent constantly and when that incompetence is obviously fucking us as a nation.

It is a long way to go to the election, but I think it is going to be a blood bath and I hope that increased minority and youth turn out comes and creates a progressive block of voters for future elections.

I know I am a starry eyed optimist, but I do think this is what is going to occur.

[beyelzu]

Originally Posted by davidm

Trump is not going to win. He is going to get beaten like an egg. He is going to get whipped like a race horse down the stretch. When election night is over he is going to be a quivering, slobbering blob of orange marmalade. His horrible reign of error and terror is drawing to a close.

He does not have a majority, silent or otherwise. He did not have a majority in 2016. He lost the popular vote but won by a quirk of the idiotic electoral college. That is not going to happen this time.

The key is to look at the state polls. They are astonishingly awful for Trump. Biden is leading, often comfortably, in eight states that Trump won last time. Trump is ahead in zero states that Hillary won.

Not only that: Trump is ahead by two points in Arkansas, for Zod’s sake! He is barely ahead in Missouri, Utah, and Montana! He is tied in Texas. He is badly losing in the Rust Belt states he won last time to cinch the election. He is well behind in Florida.

The “Clinton had a ninety percent chance of winning” stuff means pretty much nothing. These are Bayesian probabilities, with a prior probabilities assigned and then updated as new information becomes available. I remember helping cover the election in 2016 and by around 10 p.m., it was Trump who was given a ninety percent chance to win.

In any case, probabilities should not be overstated. Polls count much more. If some event has a one in a hundred chance of occurring, this just means that given a hundred trials, we should expect the event to occur once, but this tells you nothing about which trial the event will occur. It could occur on the very first trial. Low probability events happen all the time, but high probability events happen much more often. Trump is going to lose badly.

I agree with you about the likely outcome. I also think we will take the Senate because Trump sucks and more Gop incumbents are up for election.

[Qingdai]

I always remember that democrats have before snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory.

However there has been a change in the "we need to compromise" crowd because "burn the mother fucking system down right now" is taking a not-at-all-surprising lead right now.
We got no jobs. No health care. No "pandemic response needed on a national level" and nothing left to give a fuck about. If there is no hope, no need to keep all these systems in place. My State Senator is introducing a bill that makes prisoners not slaves to capitalism. Which yeah, but WHO WOULD HAVE THOUGHT.
We have the usual right wing fascists against p. much everyone else.

[Stephen Maturin]

Originally Posted by davidm

When election night is over he is going to be a quivering, slobbering blob of orange marmalade.

That'll be true regardless of the outcome, yes? I mean, quivering, slobbering blob of orange marmalade is about the best someone in Trump's condition can reasonably hope for, and his condition certainly won't improve between now and 11/3.

[JoeP]

Originally Posted by lisarea

No, you are wrong. I am thoroughly convinced that Trump is going to win, and it has nothing at all to do with my lars and penates who ensure that I am always wrong about everything I get too cocksure about.

It's lares, by Jupiter.

[fragment]

Nope, she's clearly talking about Metallica's drummer there.

[JoeP]

And the other one is supposed to be Pat Benatar?

[fragment]

Pat Benatar is ensuring that everyone is always wrong about everything they get too cocksure about.

[lisarea]

Originally Posted by fragment

Nope, she's clearly talking about Metallica's drummer there.

It's like you people don't know me at all.

[JoeP]

To be fair, we don't really know you at all, and that's for the best.

[SR71]

Little Miss Murder,
Sat on a girder,
Eating her lares and penates

[SR71]

Originally Posted by Qingdai

I always remember that democrats have before snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory.

However there has been a change in the "we need to compromise" crowd because "burn the mother fucking system down right now" is taking a not-at-all-surprising lead right now.
We got no jobs. No health care. No "pandemic response needed on a national level" and nothing left to give a fuck about. If there is no hope, no need to keep all these systems in place. My State Senator is introducing a bill that makes prisoners not slaves to capitalism. Which yeah, but WHO WOULD HAVE THOUGHT.
We have the usual right wing fascists against p. much everyone else.

With any luck they'll hit Joe with the Thorazine and have him channel the Warren - Bernie - AOC wing.

[Ensign Steve]

Originally Posted by lisarea

It's like you people don't know me at all.

Not even a little.

[lisarea]

I'm getting pretty worried for real.

I don't trust the polls at all right now. Polls are for normal circumstances, and we do not have any of those. Polls give more weight to responses from people who vote regularly and can be trusted to do it, but Trump voters aren't like that. I've only talked about it to a couple people who voted for him, and they were not likely voters. They were young, uninformed first time voters who voted for him out of a general sense of dissatisfaction and misunderstanding. And I saw tons of interviews online with older people who voted for him saying it was their first time voting, too, and for the same reasons. A general sense that they don't like politics and thought things needed some shaking up or whatever.

And things are only going to be worse this time around, because there's a huge groundswell of multiple different conspiracy theories energizing low information people into getting out to vote for him. Qanon, coronavirus, antifa, defunding the police, and a ton of factions of good old fashioned American racists. They're all going to vote for Trump, and for down-ticket Trump supporters across the board.

Every person you see walking around stores without a mask is probably going to vote for Trump. A lot of people who are afraid to leave their house because of marauding hordes of protestors are going to vote for Trump. Pretty much everyone with an American flag or that bootlicker flag on their home or car right now is going to vote for Trump. And a whole lot of people who will never signal, who look like perfectly normal, functioning adults in every superficial way are going to vote for Trump.

PLUS voter suppression is going to be way more effective right now. Trump voters think the virus is a hoax, so they'll have no compunctions about showing up to crowded in-person voting sites to cast their votes and spread their virus for Trump, whereas normal people will be far more likely to stay away.

I'm wrong a lot, especially about this type of thing, and I hope this is the wrongest thing I've ever wronged. But I'm not optimistic, and I won't be unless and until he's out of office.

[ChuckF]

pea is correct. The polling data is encouraging, but: Trump's failures haven't made the Trumpists less deranged. If anything, their impotence in the face of a virus that terrifies them and cannot be controlled by bluster and masculinity ritual alone makes them even angrier.

[slimshady2357]

I agree, there is hope but I'm still very worried. You can find hundreds, if not thousands of videos like these:

North Carolina:

This woman refuses to wear a mask while getting takeout and causes a scene.

She screams, “We don’t cover our faces in America.” as her boyfriend comes to the rescue.

She ends it all by declaring “trump 2020.”

They seem delightful...pic.twitter.com/jhZybJ7qzQ

— Rex Chapman🏇🏼 (@RexChapman) July 11, 2020

There are so many people like this it scares me. They will vote, every one of them. The GOP will continue their voter suppression.

Every person against Trump needs to make sure everyone they know is registered and ready to vote.