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  #301  
Old 10-15-2018, 06:30 PM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

Welp, Warren is definitely running in 2020:

Nicely Played, Senator Warren – Balloon Juice

Good.
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  #302  
Old 10-15-2018, 06:37 PM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

71 years old.

Ambivalent.
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  #303  
Old 10-15-2018, 06:55 PM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kamilah Hauptmann View Post
Ambivalent.
Is she?
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  #304  
Old 10-15-2018, 07:15 PM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kamilah Hauptmann View Post
Ambivalent.
Is she?

African or European?
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  #305  
Old 10-15-2018, 08:33 PM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

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Originally Posted by Kamilah Hauptmann View Post
71 years old.

Ambivalent.
I'm assuming you're ambivalent, because I doubt Warren is. Conventional wisdom says she's either going to run this next election, or remain happily at the Senate until she retires.
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  #306  
Old 10-15-2018, 08:43 PM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kamilah Hauptmann View Post
71 years old.

Ambivalent.
I'm assuming you're ambivalent
Ya. There I went too minimalist on the internet again. :derp:
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  #307  
Old 10-15-2018, 11:10 PM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

Meh, if she were a dude I'd be more concerned about age. Plus, she's smart enough to pick a running mate who isn't completely useless.
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  #308  
Old 10-16-2018, 07:41 AM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

Big thrad:


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  #309  
Old 10-16-2018, 08:50 AM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

Now that Ralph Nader is endorsing Michael fucking Bloomberg as someone Democrats should nominate in 2020, can we all agree that he's been trash for decades?

I understand people thought he was a big lefty and that's why he ran in 2000, but aside from a couple of issues, it was really more just that he hates Democrats. Which is why endorsing a centrist who spent a lot of time as an independent makes sense for him.

Ralph Nader touts Bloomberg 2020
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  #310  
Old 10-16-2018, 09:58 AM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

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Now that Ralph Nader is endorsing Michael fucking Bloomberg
I started laughing at the absurdity right here.
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  #311  
Old 10-16-2018, 10:18 AM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

Quote:
Speaking of family stories, @realDonaldTrump has one, too. It's the story of a second-generation tax cheat who was handed a $413 million inheritance through rich-guy loopholes and outright criminal fraud.
If only anyone thought that was a bad thing.
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  #312  
Old 10-16-2018, 02:47 PM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

Cherokee Nation: Warren's use of DNA test 'inappropriate,' 'wrong' | TheHill

Oofa.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kamilah Hauptmann View Post
71 years old.
:yup:

And even now, before announcing, she's playing the game on Trump's terms. A lot can happen between now and November 2020, of course, but the Dems nominating Warren could well be the path of least resistance to a Trump reelection (although Sock is surely right that Warren would make a much better running mate choice than Clinton did).

It looks like the GOP is going to pick up at least one seat in the U.S. Senate this year. Warren is needed in the Senate more than ever.
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  #313  
Old 10-16-2018, 02:50 PM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

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Originally Posted by erimir View Post
Now that Ralph Nader is endorsing Michael fucking Bloomberg as someone Democrats should nominate in 2020, can we all agree that he's been trash for decades?
Even if Nader hadn't otherwise been trash for decades, this endorsement would travel back in time and render the "trash for decades" statement true.
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  #314  
Old 10-16-2018, 03:45 PM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

A guy on my block is running as Democrat for congress. He's a second generation Korean. He has gazillions of signs all over the district. I haven't seen a single yard sign for the incumbent republican, McArthur. Does that mean anything? idk
I hope he wins. I'm sick of McArthr's emails bleating and mewling about bipartisanship. I'd like to know what he thinks about all the untruth and insanity issuing forth from Dear Leader.
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  #315  
Old 10-16-2018, 07:16 PM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

If 538 has any credibility left, your neighbor is running a hell of a campaign. A big push from now until election day might just flip that seat, which a big deal since wresting control of the U.S. House of Representatives is likely the last chance to even slow down the crazy train.
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  #316  
Old 10-16-2018, 08:03 PM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

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Originally Posted by Stephen Maturin View Post
If 538 has any credibility left, your neighbor is running a hell of a campaign. A big push from now until election day might just flip that seat, which a big deal since wresting control of the U.S. House of Representatives is likely the last chance to even slow down the crazy train.
What the fuck happened on September 23?
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  #317  
Old 10-16-2018, 11:06 PM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

That's an interesting question! SR71, did a certain Republican incumbent accidentally get his dick stuck in a zoo animal on or about 9/23?
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  #318  
Old 10-17-2018, 06:33 AM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

Siena/NYT did a live poll that started on Sept 22, and it was added to the average on Sept 24.

They actually had a ridiculously good result initially, showing Kim ahead by over 20 pts. But eventually as they did more calls and finished out the poll, they ended with a merely really good result (Kim +10).

This caused such a huge change because most of the previous polls showed a much closer race AND most of them were partisan-affiliated polls, which get less weight. And most of them were a lot older. The weight put on polls relative to other factors increases significantly as you get into the final couple months of the race, and the confidence intervals narrow as well because instead of having only the error associated with the polling itself, it's possible or even likely the race will change when you have months left. (That is, the poll may be an accurate snapshot of how people feel at that time, but people's feelings will change.)

There are a couple reasons the Siena poll could've shown such a large shift from previous polls. One is that people start paying a lot more attention after Labor Day, and so some people who might've said "eh, I'll vote for whoever's in there" in June, by September have realized "Oh, I don't like what MacArthur's been up to*, so I'll vote for the other guy actually".

The other is that the MacArthur campaign was sending around a flyer calling Kim fishy with a picture of fish that evoke an Asian market the week before. It almost would've been subtle enough to deny it was racist, except they paired it with a blatant "Oriental" font. That probably would work in a lot of places, but New Jersey is maybe not the best place to run with that?

A short term effect caused by the racist flyers would be consistent with the next two polls showing a close race though. Otherwise I'm gonna go with "people were just tuning into the election" and that's why Siena got such a good result for Kim, particularly if more polling shows a significant lead for Kim.

Anyway, aside from winning the seat (it's possible that Democrats will win 8 or more of the 23 seats they need to flip the House just in New Jersey and Pennsylvania) being good just for the one seat...

*MacArthur is the asshole who wrote the amendment to the GOP health care bill that gutted protections for pre-existing conditions, which because the GOP is so fucking awful actually revived their ACA repeal push. So that would make his defeat particularly sweet. Fuck MacArthur and call out his claims of bipartisanship for the bullshit they are. There's a reason he resigned his chairmanship of the "centrist" GOP Tuesday Group caucus after writing that amendment because even they couldn't buy his bullshit anymore.
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  #319  
Old 10-19-2018, 12:31 AM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

I was told some... "interesting" information by the Republican volunteer outside my early voting site:
  • 90% of all crime is drug-related
  • John McCain did not really die of brain cancer
  • McCain was controlled by the Saudis (however, Trump's behavior regarding Khashoggi is "a complicated situation")
  • McCain actually died because he was found guilty of treason by a military tribunal and executed
  • Jews don't really control Israel, it is controlled by fake Jews called "Khazarians" who worship the devil and came from Kazakhstan in the 1100s
  • Jared Kushner is one of them, but he might not be evil because they're not ALL evil
  • But, he conceded that since Khazarians worship the devil, and the devil is indeed very evil, Jared very well might be evil too

:whatthefuck:
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  #320  
Old 10-19-2018, 11:05 AM
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Default Re: Vive la Resistance! aka non-Trump US politics

That. Is. Awesome.
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