Community ecology can be informed by phylogenetic studies provided ecologically relevant traits are conserved within lineages. The adaptive value of a given trait may depend on the degree to which local adaptation can be conveyed to a broader community. Yet in most communities, how non-adaptive information is conveyed from individuals to sub-populations has yet to be fully resolved. Here we reinterpret ecological community work on orangutans using ecological community theory and summarize findings from ecological community studies for current and future species. We conclude that orangutans are not "recurrent speciation events"
I was recently watching a podcast about how OpenAI built their latest language model and it made me wonder what could be done with a system like this. I could not stop thinking about the applications of such a technology and how it could improve our lives. I was thinking of how cool it would be to build a Twitter-like service where the only posts are GPT-3 outputs.
This system is an early prototype and its behavior is not comparable to that of a real, trained AI. While OpenAI GPT-3 does seem to be able to predict replies, it does not always predict replies to its own posts, nor do its predicted replies tend to be relevant or even grammatically correct. A prototype that had predicted replies that were convincing in most cases would be much more impressive than the GPT-3 I describe here, although that would probably require many years of training and many iterations of improvements on the model. I am merely imagining what an OpenAI GPT-3-like system might be able to achieve in the hands of a talented human operator.
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Now for the fun part
I have a confession: I did not write the above article.
Mean human accuracy (the ratio of correct assignments to non-neutral assignments per participant) at detecting that the intentionally bad articles were model generated was ∼86% where 50% is chance level performance. By contrast,mean human accuracy at detecting articles that were produced by the 175B parameter model was barely above chance at ∼52%(see Table 3.11). Human abilities to detect model generated text appear to decrease as model size increases: there appears to be a trend towards chance accuracy with model size, and human detection of GPT-3 is close to chance.
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Figure 3.14:The GPT-3 generated news article that humans had the greatest difficulty distinguishing from a human written article (accuracy: 12%).
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Title: United Methodists Agree to Historic Split
Subtitle: Those who oppose gay marriage will form their own denomination
Article: After two days of intense debate, the United Methodist Church has agreed to a historic split - one that is expected to end in the creation of a new denomination, one that will be "theologically and socially conservative," according to The Washington Post. The majority of delegates attending the church's annual General Conference in May voted to strengthen a ban on the ordination of LGBTQ clergy and to write new rules that will "discipline" clergy who officiate at same-sex weddings. But those who opposed these measures have a new plan: They say they will form a separate denomination by 2020, calling their church the Christian Methodist denomination. The Post notes that the denomination, which claims 12.5 million members, was in the early 20th century the "largest Protestant denomination in the U.S., "but that it has been shrinking in recent decades. The new split will be the second in the church's history. The first occurred in 1968, when roughly 10 percent of the denomination left to form the Evangelical United Brethren Church. The Post notes that the proposed split "comes at a critical time for the church, which has been losing members for years," which has been "pushed toward the brink of a schism over the role of LGBTQ people in the church." Gay marriage is not the only issue that has divided the church. In2016, the denomination was split over ordination of transgender clergy, with the North Pacific regional conference voting to ban them from serving as clergy, and the South Pacific regional conference voting to allow them.
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Figure 3.15:The GPT-3 generated news article that humans found the easiest to distinguish from a human written article (accuracy: 61%).
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Title: Star’s Tux Promise Draws Megyn Kelly’s Sarcasm
Subtitle: Joaquin Phoenix pledged to not change for each awards event
Article: A year ago, Joaquin Phoenix made headlines when he appeared on the red carpet at the Golden Globes wearing a tuxedo with a paper bag over his head that read, "I am a shape-shifter. I can't change the world. I can only change myself." It was a promise to not change to fit into the Hollywood mold: "I think that's a really special thing, to not change yourself. I think it's a really special thing to say, 'This is what's inside of me, I'm proud of it, and I'm not going to be ashamed because of the way that someone else thinks I should be.'" Now, it's the Oscars, and Phoenix is at it again. But this time, his publicist is saying he'll be wearing a tux no matter what. Megyn Kelly was not impressed, and she let him have it on The Tonight Show."You know, I feel like, I feel like you could have worn the tux," she says. "But you're saying you're a shape-shifter. I don't know if you can change your tux, but you can change your mind. You can change your mind. You can change your mind." Phoenix says he did, but it didn't stick. "I was like, 'Okay, I'm going to wear a tuxedo to this thing.' And then I thought, 'Idon't want to wear a tuxedo to this thing.'" Kelly goes on to encourage him to change his mind again, but Phoenix says it's too late: "I'm committed to wearing this."
PETA praised Joaquin Phoenix, actor and climate change activist, for announcing that he'll wear the same tuxedo to every Hollywood awards event this season to reduce waste. Stella McCartney, who designed his classic black tux, also was impressed. Former Fox News and NBC host Megyn Kelly was not, People reports. "How out of touch are these ppl?? Oh the sacrifice!" Kelly tweeted after a woman posted that her husband wears the same firefighter ensemble every day. Writer Emily Zanotti said she was going to rewear the Stella McCartney jeans she bought used, "just to feel like a climate change hero." On the other side were McCartney, who called Phoenix "a winner" in her tweet "because he chooses to make choices for the future of the planet." PETA answered that he's "inspiring EVERYONE to make compassionate changes."
GQ, which knows tuxedos, points out that the issue Phoenix is calling attention to is sustainability. The red carpet is a sustainability desert — showing off clothes that were expensively and laboriously produced, only to be worn a grand total of once. McCartney has been a leader in sustainable design in her industry. She was alone in that cause at one time, but now other lines are following her lead, as sustainability has become important across industries. That includes the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which gave Phoenix its Golden Globe for best actor Sunday. The group announced this week, per NBC, that it will reuse its red carpet at other events; the carpet itself apparently had been a "use-and-discard" item.
I'd have a hard time too. The guy wearing a tuxedo with a paper bag over his head with the inscription "I am a shape-shifter. I can't change the world. I can only change myself." is pretty intriguing.
TRUMP: Nobody thought I could buy Greenland. Many people were saying "He can't buy Greenland. It's too big." But this man, big man, strong man, came up to me with tears in his eyes and he said "Sir?" I said, "What do you want?" And he said, "Mr. Trump, I want you to know that the people of Greenland, they love you!" So we purchased Greenland for $1 billion, because we know it's an amazing island. I have a great relationship with all of the people of Greenland, and I'm really happy with that purchase.
The other thing I was told, which is very important, is that nobody in this room knows the market value for Greenland, because the people don't know the market value for Greenland. Nobody! It's a great island. Great beaches, tremendous location, a beautiful
I was mentioning this to someone else, and I have the continuation of this now:
TRUMP: Nobody thought I could buy Greenland. Many people were saying "He can't buy Greenland. It's too big." But this man, big man, strong man, came up to me with tears in his eyes and he said "Sir?" I said, "What do you want?" And he said, "Mr. Trump, I want you to know that the people of Greenland, they love you!" So we purchased Greenland for $1 billion, because we know it's an amazing island. I have a great relationship with all of the people of Greenland, and I'm really happy with that purchase.
The other thing I was told, which is very important, is that nobody in this room knows the market value for Greenland, because the people don't know the market value for Greenland. Nobody! It's a great island. Great beaches, tremendous location, a beautiful piece of land, and nobody knew the market value for it, or for it. And I was told that if I get in the race and I'm elected, they're going to lower the market value of the island by $1 billion. So that was very important to me. Because what it says is that they're going to acknowledge that I knew the real value.
But then they wanted me to buy all the islands of Indonesia, which are now also offering me billions of dollars. They want me to buy the whole island of China. They want me to buy all of the islands in Malaysia. I don't want to buy all the islands in Malaysia, no. That would be terrible. Because they're all owned by people that hate us and they want me to take their land. So I told the people in the room, "I don't want to buy the islands in Malaysia." I like Malaysia. I
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