#1276  
Old 05-27-2020, 09:41 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

They probably have been working with lawyers all that time. GDPR is an absurdity, and 27 different DPAs continue to issue inconsistent guidance as they go. CCPA is a relative cakewalk, and is only enforced by the California AG. I am delighted when we are able to shift business out of the EU just to avoid the GDPR headaches. The compliance cost and disproportionate enforcement risk makes even the simplest transactions even slower and more difficult than before. I'd be surprised if EU readers are worth the cost of compliance for Salt Lake Tribune.
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  #1277  
Old 05-27-2020, 09:51 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeP View Post
Quote:
We'll be back

We're sorry. The Salt Lake Tribune's web site, sltrib.com, is unavailable in the European Union. We are working with lawyers on compliance with the European Union's General Data Protection Requirements, and we expect to sltrib.com to be available once that is done. Thank you for your patience.
Thinks ... should I get a vpn to bypass all these stupid rules? Or should I continue to ignore such worthless sites?

Buses, buffets, bars, nightclubs. Things that will make you croak. :frog:

Is that a slang for deading in EU?
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  #1278  
Old 05-27-2020, 09:56 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

also choirs, church, your family, an office, gym, the list goes in. Stay home. :hide:
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  #1279  
Old 05-27-2020, 11:39 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Who the fuck let the UK back into the EU?
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  #1280  
Old 05-28-2020, 05:00 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Fucking Brexit. Thanks Obama!
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  #1281  
Old 05-28-2020, 05:39 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

:shakeBreBama:
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  #1282  
Old 05-29-2020, 11:19 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Wow, sure are a LOT of people dying from pneumonia in Texas and Florida this year :rolleye1:



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  #1283  
Old 05-29-2020, 12:37 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Weekly round-up. Third week running with no new doubling targets reached. :cheer:

USA COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
TargetActualDateDays
15+1503-06 -
30+3003-104
60+6003-155
120+12403-183
240+25603-202
500+50803-233
1000+119503-263
2000+222103-282
4000+405303-313
8000+845104-044
16K+1669104-095
32K+3244304-156
64K+6575305-0116
128K+??(27+)

Italy COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
TargetActualDateDays
3+302-23 -
6+702-241
12+1202-262
24+2902-293
48+5203-022
100+10703-042
200+23303-073
400+46303-092
800+82703-112
1600+180903-154
3200+340503-194
6400+682003-245
12K8+1315504-018
25K+2508504-2221
50K+??(36+)

UK COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
TargetActualDateDays
3+303-08 -
6+603-102
12+2103-144
24+3503-151
48+5303-161
96+10403-182
200+23303-213
400+42203-243
800+101903-284
1600+178903-313
3200+360504-033
6400+709704-085
12K8+1286804-157
25K+2530204-2813
50K+??(30+)

France COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
TargetActualDateDays
3+303-02 -
6+703-053
12+1603-072
24+3003-092
48+4803-112
100+12703-154
200+26403-183
400+45003-202
800+86003-233
1600+169603-263
3200+352303-315
6400+650704-033
12K8+1319704-107
25K+2520105-0424
50K+??(24+)

Spain COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
TargetActualDateDays
2+203-04 -
4+803-062
8+803-060
16+1703-082
32+3603-102
64+8403-122
128+13303-131
256+28903-152
500+53303-172
1000+100203-203
2000+220603-233
4000+436503-263
8000+846403-315
16K+1608104-1010
32K+??(48+)

Germany COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
TargetActualDateDays
3+303-12 -
6+803-131
12+1303-163
24+2403-171
48+4803-203
100+11403-233
200+20603-252
400+43303-283
800+93104-014
1600+181004-065
3200+349504-148
6400+646704-2915
12K8+??(29+)

Iran COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
TargetActualDateDays
3+302-21 -
6+602-221
12+1202-242
24+2602-273
48+5403-013
100+10803-054
200+23703-094
400+42903-123
800+85303-164
1600+168503-226
3200+329404-0312
6400+641805-0633
12K8+??(22+)

The Netherlands COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
TargetActualDateDays
3+303-08 -
6+1003-135
12+1203-141
24+2403-162
48+5803-182
100+10603-202
200+21303-233
400+43403-263
800+86403-304
1600+165104-045
3200+331504-1612
6400+??(42+)

Luxembourg COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
TargetActualDateDays
1+103-14 -
2+203-184
4+403-191
8+803-212
16+1803-287
32+3604-058
64+6604-127
128+??(46+)
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  #1284  
Old 05-30-2020, 01:31 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Quote:
Originally Posted by beyelzu View Post
Quote:
"As I see it, the 'best estimate' is extremely optimistic, and the 'worst case' scenario is fairly optimistic even as a best estimate. One certainly wants to consider worse scenarios," Bergstrom said of CDC's numbers.
"By introducing these as the official parameter sets for modeling efforts, CDC is influencing the models produced by federal agencies, but also the broader scientific discourse because there will be some pressure to use the CDC standard parameter sets in modeling papers going forward," he said.
"Given that these parameter sets underestimate fatality by a substantial margin compared to current scientific consensus, this is deeply problematic."
CDC Says IFR of Symptomatic Covid19 Patients is .4 percent

This is almost certainly untrue. I wonder if political appointees influenced the report or if the CDC is trying to get back at the big table and are trying to appeal to Trump.

That is admittedly a bit conspiracy theoryish for me, but the CDC also mixed antibody with pcr testing like Georgia, Texas, Florida and some other states did. This made the total number of tests look much better.

Quote:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is conflating the results of two different types of coronavirus tests, distorting several important metrics and providing the country with an inaccurate picture of the state of the pandemic. We’ve learned that the CDC is making, at best, a debilitating mistake: combining test results that diagnose current coronavirus infections with test results that measure whether someone has ever had the virus. The upshot is that the government’s disease-fighting agency is overstating the country’s ability to test people who are sick with COVID-19. The agency confirmed to The Atlantic on Wednesday that it is mixing the results of viral and antibody tests, even though the two tests reveal different information and are used for different reasons.
Not Merely a Technical Error

Follow up to this story.

Quote:

While no one yet knows the coronavirus’s actual death rate, the agency’s range of possible rates seemed alarmingly low to many epidemiologists, compared to existing data in places both inside and outside the US. For instance, estimates of New York City’s total death rate, 0.86% to 0.93%, are even higher than the CDC’s worst-case scenario. Estimates from countries like Spain and Italy are also higher, ranging from 1.1% to 1.3%.

Researchers also lambasted the CDC’s lack of transparency about its data sources. The eight-page document disclosed almost nothing about its numbers, citing only internal data and a preprint — a study that has not been peer-reviewed — led by scientists in Iran.

“This is terrible. This is way too optimistic,” Andrew Noymer, an associate professor of population health at the University of California at Irvine, told BuzzFeed News, adding, “With this document, the CDC is determined to smash its credibility with the public health community of which it is supposedly a leader.”

And Ioaniddis is quoting it claiming victory but since it’s based primarily on his preprint and magical Iranian numbers only, that’s seems disingenuous.

Quote:

These estimates are on the higher end of the disease’s apparent fatality across the world. A preliminary analysis of more than two dozen studies from Europe, China, the US, and elsewhere, conducted by Meyerowitz-Katz and colleague Lea Merone, suggests that the overall infection fatality rate is between 0.5% and 0.78%. Even the lower end of that range is higher than what the CDC says is its “best estimate” for the rate, which is about 0.26%.

The CDC‚€™s Coronavirus Death Rate Estimates Are Too Low, Many Scientists Say

Edited from his oped

Quote:

Late last week the CDC adopted an estimated death rate of 0.4 percent for those who develop symptoms and acknowledged that there are many other infected people who develop no symptoms at all. These estimates will continue to improve as time goes on, but it is clear that the numbers are much lower than first feared. The exact infection fatality rate varies across populations and settings, but it appears that in most situations outside nursing homes and hospitals, it tends to be very low.
http://bostonreview.net/science-natu...ality-evidence

That was based primarily on his work and he ignores the many conflicting estimates. I thought he was good faith and mistaken initially. Now I think he’s an ideologue and so sure that he is going to prove all those epidemiologists wrong that he has done the very shitty science that he has previously warned against.

In his essay, he makes suspicious mistakes, he regularly quotes IFRs as being higher than 3 which was never accepted and and he ascribes all of the economic effects of covid mitigation on the lockdowns.

People are staying home voluntarily l. We know this because they started doing it before the lockdowns.

Anyway, if you click through, it’s one of the better written denialist pieces that I have read.
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Last edited by beyelzu; 05-30-2020 at 01:42 AM.
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  #1285  
Old 05-30-2020, 01:52 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Apparently Ioaniddis also has a really shitty seroprevalence review where he cherry picked some good data, it makes an ifr of .2 to .4.

I thought the cdc was just using his flawed seroprevalence study in Santa Clara, I didnít know he had also hacked together a thoroughly embarrassing review.



Twitter

Edited to add

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...872280577.html


Unrolled first your reading pleasure.
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  #1286  
Old 05-30-2020, 08:46 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Coronavirus | Monkeys snatch blood samples in Meerut - The Hindu

Nothing bad can come of this.

I mean, not in this case because the samples were recovered. But in general also nothing.
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  #1287  
Old 05-30-2020, 05:15 PM
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  #1288  
Old 05-31-2020, 05:55 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

Trump is a piece of shit, but he is an obvious piece of shit.

Last week the CDC came out with that plan that had an insane IFR, and now it's announced that the CDC gets to do the big boy briefings. Now, sure, Trump might want to distance himself now that it's looking so fucking terrible, but it's not hard to imagine that Redfield who already appealed to some of the Trump Maga base as the MAGA whisperer- man of faith played a little ball with the whitehouse. Ioaniddis has been in the conservative propaganda.

I know this is a bit conspiracy theoryish.

The CDC held a briefing Friday in which director Robert Redfield defended the agency's surveillance for the coronavirus and denied that it missed the spread of the virus across the country.
That session was the first of the resumption of the CDC's regular press briefings, a senior Health and Human Services official told CNN.


They are trusted to talk to the press once more.

It's kind of sad that they are going to start communicating more now when I don't trust them as much.
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  #1289  
Old 06-01-2020, 09:57 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

I'd pretty much worked out the R-number. But now ...

K number: what is the coronavirus metric that could be crucial as lockdown eases? | World news | The Guardian

Quote:
“K is the statistical value that tells us how much variation there is in that distribution.”

But unlike R, K numbers are not intuitive.
Indeed.

Anyway the K number for Covid-19 "seems to be between about 0.1 and 0.5" meaning "about 10-20% of infections probably generate about 80% of the transmission". This is in the early stages, without public health measures, but it's not clear how much it changes with such measures.
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  #1290  
Old 06-02-2020, 05:21 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

wrong fucking thread
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  #1291  
Old 06-02-2020, 05:23 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

He lost 11 lbs and you gained 11 lbs? :noid: Seems like a suspicious coincidence to me.
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  #1292  
Old 06-02-2020, 06:02 PM
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:cannibal:
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  #1293  
Old 06-02-2020, 09:09 PM
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I made this post on facebook for my Georgia friends and family.



This is Georgia’s Covid dashboard.
Kemp was elected in large part through voter suppression, where he used legitimate sounding arguments to fuck over black people through uneven enforcement.
They closed hundreds of polling places with spurious claims about potential ada violations and nebulous cost savings.

Kemp brought the same leadership to the Covid19 pandemic.

Georgia reports deaths and cases on the date that the death occurred and cases from the date the patient said their symptoms started, they claim to do this for the purposes of accuracy.

Most states report these things in the date that the test or death is reported. By just reporting the numbers on the day reported it’s possible to look at trends up to date.
Georgia’s method permanently makes it look like they have falling cases and deaths over the last two weeks no matter what actually occurs.

This is why their dashboard has a 14 day window.

Now you can see a spike that started about three weeks ago, but in spite of what that graph looks like, GA is two weeks more into the spike.

A second wave isn’t coming to GA IMO, it’s here and decisions that Kemp made in order to make himself look good are misinforming Georgians



:sigh:
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  #1294  
Old 06-02-2020, 09:12 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

back filling your data is so fucking misleading by the way. and the 14 days isn't like a magical number, the graph to the left of the window necessarily changes over time because of the way they backfill data.
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  #1295  
Old 06-02-2020, 09:39 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

lol bey I was complaining about exactly the same thing to my partner and he just did not care, I am glad I can find sympathy at :ff:

You have described what NC does with its death trend. NC DHHS reports out deaths by the date of death. But it takes a few days for NC DHHS to process the death reports from the counties, so deaths can be reported on any number of days after they occur. The result is:

1. A # of deaths reported each day that could include deaths from any time in the past week or so (which is not useful information); and
2. A trend line that is necessarily always declining at the right tail, because the deaths from the most recent days have not yet been processed; and
3. A dynamic distribution of deaths by day that is more informative but has no trend applied.

It looks like NC had a second death peak around 5/23-24, but as far as we know it could still be increasing, even though it looks like it is dramatically declining.

Something similar to what you noted in GA happens with daily case reports. It's hard to think of a perfect way to do it, but the total # of cases reported each day says more about lab turnarounds than actual case trends. NC's only case trend is based on those daily numbers. NC also reports cases by date of the specimen collection, which is way more useful - but it doesn't include a trend, and the data can be pending for up to 14 days (!).

So on 5/26, NC had a very low 176 positives reported - I think 3rd or 4th lowest since March. Not unexpected, day after Memorial Day. But if you look by day of specimen collection, 1,304 positives were collected on 5/26 - a record high. That bolus of positives is reported out over several days according to the processing labs, which results in chunkiness and peaks and valleys in cases reported out over the following week or so.
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  #1296  
Old 06-03-2020, 12:44 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

"Hell is other people's data" as a friend and old colleague quipped when I griped about my data wrangling day job woes.

The best way to handle it is to model the missing data (i.e. if 5 deaths are reported today, for today, model how many that suggests will added in the future given how previous data has unfolded). In visualisations be sure to highlight the uncertainty in the most recent data. There's pretty good dashboard for Sweden that someone has done, that takes this approach:

Reported Covid-19 deaths in Sweden | Swedish Covid-19 statistics

(Another way to do it would be to apply a sort of windowed moving average that downweights old and very new data, so as to be mostly weighted by the most reliable figures.)
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  #1297  
Old 06-04-2020, 06:03 AM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

We're at nearly two weeks with no new cases, and there's only one active case. We're still testing at a decent rate. We might in the near future be moving to very few internal restrictions. Quarantine to international arrivals will still apply and standard precautions are still advised.

The relaxed restrictions we're already on are a relief. I'm pretty happy to stay at home but I can't imagine what it would like to still be heavily restricted.
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  #1298  
Old 06-04-2020, 10:03 PM
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Default Re: Winnie the Flu

New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says

Quote:
“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion.
“The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told RAI television.
Quote:
A second doctor from northern Italy told the national ANSA news agency that he was also seeing the coronavirus weaken.
“The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today,” said Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of Genoa.
“It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different.”
Huh. I wonder if they're right?
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Old 06-04-2020, 11:16 PM
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No, they couldn’t be more full of shit.

We don’t have evidence of new strains and lower viral loads are expected late in the wave as you start testing more people and not just those who are very sick.

The story just got traction because deniers picked it up.

Meanwhile there was a similar story rejecting the possibility that did not go similarly viral.

If somehow there is a new strain that is weaker in Italy, it would be dumb luck that these two doctors are right. The evidence they cite doesn’t support their conclusion.

Furthermore, I think it’s unlikely for that sort of trait to get selected for SARS-CoV-2 as it’s already relatively mild, unlike Ebola where the intensity of the disease stops spread.
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Old 06-04-2020, 11:30 PM
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Doubt.

Quote:
Zangrillo said some experts were too alarmist about the prospect of a second wave of infections and politicians needed to take into account the new reality.

“We’ve got to get back to being a normal country,” he said. “Someone has to take responsibility for terrorizing the country.
That does not seem to me to be the language of someone who values public health above ideals of "liberty".
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