Clue: The Mafia Game

[Gyre]

okay, now i unvote for the beyelzu and vote for the tick (my main motivation is to use bold in this vote as i didn't in my first)



woo hoo, bold print

[JamesBannon]

Originally Posted by beyelzu

Or it could be that he is still be pissy about the last game. One of the problems with playing mafia with mick is that the best mafia tell, shitty logic, is in fact a common element in alot of his posts.

Last post of the evening. You know as well as I do, Bey, that the better players are always among "the likely suspects" on Day 1 / 2, absent any other info. They would certainly be my top targets in any game if I'm playing a cop / scum.

[Julie]

Originally Posted by Sun Tzu

If we lynch someone at random, we have about a 25% chance of lynching scum.

With the posts and reasoning Julie has given, I think there is about a 40-50% chance that she is scum.

The way you are misrepresenting what people have said in order to defend her makes me suspicious of you. It could mean you are scum defending scum or it could mean you are scum defending town, so my FOS of you doesn't change my evaluation of Julie. Of course it could just mean you're not paying attention.

Ok just doing the math in my head here...and 25% just doesn't make sense to me...

There are 13 of us alive.
We know that ONE of us for sure is a murderer...

So if we lynch someone at random don't we have a 1:13 chance of hitting the murderer? Thats like ummm about an 8% chance, not a 25% chance.

To get a 25% chance don't we have to have a ummm 3:13 or 4:13...What does Sun know that we don't?

(*ya someone please check my math...I'm terrible at math but I think I have this right)

[Crumb]

Vote Count:

JamesBannon
Slimshady
Gyre
Adam
Ensign Steve
The Tick [4] - Adam, JamesBannon, slimshady, Gyre
Sun Tzu
Joshua Adams
Smilin [1] - Julie
cappuccino
Julie [5] - mickthinks, beyelzu, Sun Tzu, Joshua Adams, Ensign Steve
beyelzu
mickthinks

7 votes needed for lynch.

[Joshua Adams]

Julie, yes his figure assumes that we have three or four scum. Even though a game of Clue only involves one killer, such a setup would be unbalanced in favor of the town even if there were absolutely no special roles (By random lynching, we would have a 65.9% chance of winning).

[Julie]

Still seems very odd to me to be making assumptions like that. We don't KNOW that at all and it just seems odd to me that Sun would jump to the 25% assumption without having some knowledge that we don't seem to have. What does Sun know that I don't?

I don't recall reading anywhere that this game was going to be fair and balanced

[beyelzu]

Originally Posted by JamesBannon

Last post of the evening. You know as well as I do, Bey, that the better players are always among "the likely suspects" on Day 1 / 2, absent any other info. They would certainly be my top targets in any game if I'm playing a cop / scum.

Voting for someone only because they are a good player is bad for the town. It is true that you should examine better players, sure.

[Joshua Adams]

Originally Posted by Julie

I don't recall reading anywhere that this game was going to be fair and balanced

Crumb always watched Fox News while playing with Legos.

[Sun Tzu]

Originally Posted by Julie

Ok just doing the math in my head here...and 25% just doesn't make sense to me...

There are 13 of us alive.
We know that ONE of us for sure is a murderer...

So if we lynch someone at random don't we have a 1:13 chance of hitting the murderer? Thats like ummm about an 8% chance, not a 25% chance.

To get a 25% chance don't we have to have a ummm 3:13 or 4:13...What does Sun know that we don't?

(*ya someone please check my math...I'm terrible at math but I think I have this right)

Most games have about 25% mafia or so. In fact, a pretty standard setup is a 13 player game with 3 wolves and 1 seer where the seer gets a n0 peek. This game could obviously be different depending on what roles are present, but I seriously doubt there is only 1 evil player.

Have you played before? I might have to rethink some things if this is your first game.

[Sun Tzu]

Also, that thinking is inconsistent with your previous idea of lynching the better players. That plan is even worse if there is only an 8% chance of someone being evil.

You're not making any sense at all.

[Julie]

Originally Posted by Joshua Adams

Crumb always watched Fox News while playing with Legos.

Oh well we already knew Crumb was batting for that team....

[Julie]

Originally Posted by Sun Tzu

Also, that thinking is inconsistent with your previous idea of lynching the better players. That plan is even worse if there is only an 8% chance of someone being evil.

You're not making any sense at all.

I know that day one lynching is random cause we know nothing.

YOU sun are the one telling us we have a 25% chance here not I. You seem to be working with more knowledge then I have and I just wonder how you got that.

[Sun Tzu]

For "lynch the good players" to make sense, there would have to be more scum than town, in which case the game would already be over.

I have never seen so much scummines from someone on Day 1. I want to think it's pure noobishness, but I can't see how your thought processes make any sense as noob town either. What are you trying to do? Instead of defending yourself, you're just acting scummy. I don't get it.

[Sun Tzu]

As far as knowing more than everyone else, I don't see what you mean. We all know there is more than 1 scum because the game is called "mafia."

The way it works is there are bad guys, called "scum" who kill a good guy each night. During the day, we vote to lynch who we think are scum. It's an informed minority versus an ininformed majority since the scum know who each other are but the town doesn't know who the scum are. The town wins when all the scum are eliminated. The scum win if they are ever 50% or more of the remaining players.

[Julie]

I know how the game is played. You dont have to treat me like Im an idiot Sun.

I just want to know how you came up with your 25% number. With the knowledge we have we can't make that assumption, but you did, which makes me wonder what information do you have that I don't?


And what exactly do you want me to say in defence of myself? Anything I do say you'd just come back accusing me of being scum. If I say I'm innocent you'd say THAT was a scum tell too.

I think you are protesting this to much. I think you put your foot in your mouth with your 25% number.

*IF* you are right and there are 3:13 (which is 24% as far as I can figure and as close to your number as I can get)

Then YOU are one of them and you know that there are two more, it's the only way you could have come up with those numbers.

unvote
vote Sun Tzu

[Sun Tzu]

I've played before. I always assume it's around 25%.

What you're doing is a standard scum tell called OMGUS. You should be explaining what you said, not lashing out at the people pressuring you.

You still haven't addressed the reasons people have voted for you. You still haven't explained why it would be good to eliminate experienced players. You still haven't admitted to making a mistake. You have misrepresented things and made up ridiculous accusations and nonsense. You tell me not to treat you like an idiot but you act like I must have inside information because I assume there is more than one scum. To defend yourself, what you need to do is calm down and explain what you're thinking.

As far as assuming there are around 3 scum, that's how many there would be in a standard 13 player setup. If there are only 2, they would have to be extra powerful, perhaps a godfather type and/or a role-blocker. 4 could work too if the town has a lot of specials. If it's not 2-4, the game would be pretty unbalanced. Anyway, it's reasonable to assume things are fairly normal until we have reason to believe otherwise.

Your turn. Explain your thinking.

[Sun Tzu]

Also, you're acting like my argument depends on how many scum there are. It doesn't. What I was saying is that even if it's only 50/50 that you're scum, that's significantly better than a random lynch.

The reason I would like you to explain yourself, is not so I can attack you and get you lynched. The reason is because I can't tell where you're coming from. Your actions don't make any sense to me assuming you're town, but they don't make much sense assuming you're scum either. You're not making much sense but I don't know what that means.

Now, please address the points we have asked you about.

[Julie]

You're still making assumptions Sun.

Just because other Mafia games have had 3 scum with 13 players means nothing for this game. For this game all we know is that there is one right now. Anything beyond that is you and your insider information assumption. That sounds like you are trying to talk your way out a corner you have painted yourself into.

Originally Posted by me

I'm torn as to who to vote for...Adam is good at these games so is Bey...if either one of them is the killer (or god forbid Both of them are) we are hooped!

I stand by what I said Both Adam and Bey are good players. If either one of them is the scum we as a team are in BIG trouble. They are very very good. My vote for Bey probably did have ulterior motives. I like Bey. I think he is funny. I love his taste in music... I wish he had his old av up so I could go back to my oh so witty penis jokes (Ya ok even I know they suck and are junivile but they still make me giggle) I think ES voted for me for like reasons, cause her and I get along well and like each other (that and the special night we shared in California ) But all in all I did just pick Beys name at random...out of thin air...there was and is no other reason to vote for him.

Go back and look at the first few votes in the game, like mine they were randomly picked by the players. Hell the first vote was someone pulling my name out of the thin air. I knew this so I didn't stand up and start pointing FOS at anyone screaming scum scum.

Lets take a look at the vote right before my first vote...it's the post right above mine #21 I believe

Originally Posted by adam

Vote: The Tick because he's evaded my scum- and/or king-dar two games running now.

Adam voted for the tick...Adam seems to have trouble picking up on any tells by the Tick. Or so his reason says. Kinda like Adam thinks of the Tick as a good player.

So why then Sun did you jump on me and start pointing the FOS at me and not Adam seeings as we both gave virtually the same reasons for a vote?



In fact going back and looking it was YOU that started all this FOS stuff...

If anyone is acting scummy in this game it is not I. (or should I use me? damn grammar another thing I suck at)


* Julie wonders if Sun thinks this is me worked up what he would think of me when I WAS worked up!

P.S. I have a stupid busy day tomorrow...got physio in the morning then going to court to file the child support papers on Ex So I don't know what time i will be back to play more. Probably not until 5-6pm PST

[The Tick]

Originally Posted by Sun Tzu

I think bey is on the money. I would like to hear more from The Tick.

You said yourself that "you don't get much from day 1".

And then you say "you would like to hear more from The Tick" (even I mentioned in my last post that he won't be on computer so often).

I could try to come up with some long list of pure guesses, but that would be pretty much guesswork, so I'd rather see where the game is going and bring some deeper analysis later. I comment when I'm here and have something to say.

So far I have 2 suspicious elements about you:
- The fact that you wanted "me to say more" (and mentioned that day 1 is guesswork: why want to hear more from me? Why don't you want to hear from ES? Or Bey? Or... anyone?)
- You go in the path of "we have 25% whatnot chance" and continue arguing over numbers... I find this speculation about scummies not helpful (and in an earlier game, I - as a scum - accidentally was got into guessing what roles there could be...)

Originally Posted by Julie

I know how the game is played. You dont have to treat me like Im an idiot Sun.

I agree. No point provoking people. Let's keep it fun & friendly.

Originally Posted by Sun Tzu

I've played before. I always assume it's around 25%.

I didn't remember you bringing these facts in other games played here on the boards...

As far as assuming there are around 3 scum, that's how many there would be in a standard 13 player setup. If there are only 2, they would have to be extra powerful, perhaps a godfather type and/or a role-blocker. 4 could work too if the town has a lot of specials. If it's not 2-4, the game would be pretty unbalanced. Anyway, it's reasonable to assume things are fairly normal until we have reason to believe otherwise.

Your turn. Explain your thinking.

Scum making scum guesses?

I remember when I was dragged into this guessing conversation, and was coming up similar guesses....

---

But, as for the record: I find Julie's "unvote, vote Sun Tzu" bit hasty. I dislike how Sun Tzu verbally attacks Julie. This doesn't make my thoughts about Julie more or less scummy, I just dislike if verbal accusations happen in a game.

Peace people.

Kicking in the nuts is of course acceptable.

Originally Posted by julie

Adam voted for the tick...Adam seems to have trouble picking up on any tells by the Tick. Or so his reason says. Kinda like Adam thinks of the Tick as a good player.

It doesn't prove that. It just shows that Adam thinks he is even worse player than me

Just kidding.

Julie, you could be right, although here's my thinking:

Adam is a good player (more analytical than me, even though I've managed to fool him twice ), and I see one reason for Adam's vote:
- He is a townie who wants to get rid of the element that was not clear to him in earlier games.

If Adam was a scum... he could simply kill me at night.

So - I kind of get the feeling that Adam is a townie in this game. (Of course it's pretty darn early to tell, so it's just my first impression - that could very well be wrong).

---

Could somebody explain why Julie being pressured... thanks.

---

Sun Tzu, now I would like to hear more from you.

---

Meanwhile:

One last note: I wonder why Bey has not been posting more. When he has played townie, he has posted & voted all the time. When he was a scum, he was silent. Now he is silent again.

Hmm.

unvote
vote Beyelzu

[mickthinks]

Julie 93: I stand by what I said Both Adam and Bey are good players. If either one of them is the scum we as a team are in BIG trouble.
This doesn't look good to me, Julie. You seem now to be insisting that your vote wasn't random, which conflicts with your original defence here and here.

If your vote was truly a considered one and intended to be good for town, then why did you think it would help the town to pretend at first that it wasn't?

[Adam]

TBH, "Let's lynch the good players first!" doesn't strike me as a scum tell so much as a newbie mistake. Scum would be adding good players to their list of potential N1 kills, not baldly suggesting that we off them in thread. I suppose it could be a newbie scum error.

FOS Sun Tzu for assuming the number of scum we have, btw.

[slimshady2357]

I can't believe Julie is still touting the 'lynching on day 1 is random' line, yet has voted for Sun Tzu based on day one happenings! Julie, surely you can see now how lynching on day 1 doesn't need to be random. Already we have some interesting posts that bring suspicion on various people.

I agree with you that Sun Tzu's statemtent of 25% is pretty fishy, I was working the numbers a little before that and was scratching my head wondering how many scum there would be. Anything from 2-4 seems possible depending on the number of town specials.

Why would Sun Tzu just state there were 3 scum, how would he know that?

He's given fairly plausible reasons for thinking so... but they seem post hoc and coupled with his hardcore bashing of Julie it all just looks scummy to me. Since the Tick has come to post now... unvote Tick and vote Sun Tzu.

I think it's likely that one of Julie or Sun Tzu is scum. I'm suspicious of both, but Sun Tzu slightly more. If they're both scum, this is a hell of a show

[cappuccino]

Sun isn't provoking Julie, he's asking good questions. Julie is being inconsistent plus she claims to know how mafia game works but goes after Sun, claiming Sun must have "inside knowledge" even though Sun's already explained where he got the numbers, it's just standard Mafia probabilities. We assume the 25% at beginning of each game, it's during the progress of the game when we update our probabilities and estimates accordingly.

It's not pulling numbers out of our ass, it's mafia canonical knowledge.

either Julie's new at this or she's throwing up a smokescreen.

So far, she's the best candidate we have.

Vote: Julie

[Gyre]

All this back and forth is wearing me out.
Since Julie is not defending herself in a way that convinces even a newby like me. I unvote the tick and vote for JULIE

[slimshady2357]

Originally Posted by Gyre

All this back and forth is wearing me out.
Since Julie is not defending herself in a way that convinces even a newby like me. I unvote the tick and vote for JULIE

Nightfall