So, Iran, huh?

[Deadlokd]

The Pirate Bay has changed it's name to the Persian Bay and has linked to this forum Why We Protest - IRAN - Powered by vBulletin It's a forum set up for Iranians to share news with each other and the world.

[livius drusus]

Amateur footage of today's march of mourning for the slain over the past few days. According to some reports it's the largest gathering yet.

I've turned my avatar green for solidarity.

[Ari]

The internet is making squishing protest just a bit harder, which is rather awesome.

[godfry n. glad]

Now who didn't expect the claim coming out of Iran that the US was leading the revolt?

See what happens when we are ham-handed in our foreign affairs commitments?



Great twin ghosts of the Dulles Brothers and Kermit, too!

[LadyShea]

I had livius make my avatar green as well...she did a fabu job as usual

The whole thing scares me, but I have to say "You go people" to the Iranians. They are risking a lot to protest and get information out.

Oh and as a country, we must stay the fuck out of it. I hope Obama doesn't go all stupid on us and try to get in this.

[Clutch Munny]

What LS said.

[Ari]

I agree.
The citizens need to be able to voice their opinions without the 'democratic' freedom of the US. I had wonder if the Iraqi elections saw a totalitarian dictator elected if the US Military was going to step in nul their free vote.

[Deadlokd]

Watching the news last night and six members of the Iranian soccer team were wearing green armbands. I don't think we'll see them playing international again.

[livius drusus]

That was from their match with South Korea a couple of days ago. They didn't wear them in the second period (that must not have been a fun locker room discussion) and after released a cya claiming that it was just a religious symbol, not a political one. Major props to them for taking such a bold step. Whatever they need to say afterward to keep head and neck together is a-okay with me.

Today Khamenei doubled down, reaffirming his unquestioning support for the election results, blaming the usual suspects (US, UK, Israel) for the unrest and threatening a crackdown on protests.

Mousavi has a rally planned for tomorrow. They were going to rally for Friday prayers first, but again they rescheduled to avoid a giant us-vs-them thing developing. We'll see what they decide to do given Kamenei's hardline stance.

Again I recommend Nico Pitney's liveblog and Andrew Sullivan for up-to-the-minute news. Also the NYT Lede blog is on this story like white on rice.

Good news today: instead of just donning a green logo as people have petitioned, Google has created a Farsi translator which means all the bloggers can instantly translate tweets, stories, etc.

[LadyShea]

Good for Google!

[vremya]

According to Nico Pitney's Liveblog

No permit. A trusted Iranian on Twitter: "confirmed - the Gov has refused to issue a permit for Sea of Green march at 4pm on Saturday in Tehran." In other words, police have free range to crack down.

Yet it still appears that these courageous people will march, from Enghelab Sq. at the University of Tehran toward Azadi (Freedom) Square.

Damn. After Khamenei's speech, that scares the hell out of me.

[California Tanker]

Originally Posted by Ari

The internet is making squishing protest just a bit harder, which is rather awesome.

No, it's not. It's just making it more public. If the Iranian goverment wants to crack down, its being on the Internet isn't going to worry them very much.

Tiannanmen Square was broadcast on international TV. Didn't seem to stop the Chinese.

NTM

[Watser?]

The Iranians seem to care a bit more about public appearance and public opinion though. But I'm not putting any money on this ending well...

[curses]

Interesting story in the SF Gate about someone who helped set up proxy servers to keep the protesters online.
S.F. techie helps stir Iranian protests

[Leesifer]

Well, shit.

[Watser?]

Hmmm, on second thought there are some significant differences between Tian an Men and what is going on in Iran.

First of all: Iranians are far less docile and far better educated in general than the Chinese I think. Secondly the Tian an Men movement was fairly isolated from the larger population. This is a movement that has a very large base of support, whether they are the actual winners of the elections or not it is definitely a mass movement. Thirdly: they are consciously evoking the terminology and the methods of the Iranian revolution and thereby claiming to be the legitimate heirs to that revolution (which of course makes Khamenei all the more angry).

This has now gone beyond the point where Khamenei could back down without losing face and/or power. Whatever happens, it is make or break for him now. And he won't give up without a fight.

[D. Scarlatti]

Mrs. and Mr. Mousavi's art and architectural drawings.

[livius drusus]

Wow, he's pretty good. I like Zahra's sculpture too.

[Adam]

Originally Posted by Leesifer

Well, shit.

The row was sparked by Ayatollah Khamenei saying the UK was the "most evil" of Western governments.

A Foreign Office spokesman said: "We made clear to the Iranian charge that the supreme leader's comments were unacceptable and not based in fact..."

So, who does the Foreign Office believe to be the most evil of Western governments, hmmmmm?

Seriously, though, way to take the bait. Pop by Parliament and have a talk with them, would you Lees?

[Leesifer]

On my way.

Also, this:

Originally Posted by Watser?

This has now gone beyond the point where Khamenei could back down without losing face and/or power. Whatever happens, it is make or break for him now. And he won't give up without a fight.

[Demimonde]

I will definitely be rooting for the protesters tomorrow. For years the demographics of Iran have been changing, and I have been hopeful that they youth of Iran would be able to peacefully change their government from within. I really hope that they will be able to march without conflict.

[Jerome]

This is all very interesting to watch.

What will be more interesting is when in a decade or so we learn what was really going on politically.



You guys don't really believe that the information we currently have is what is really happening?

[ChuckF]

Obviously we don't have complete knowledge of the politics. We very rarely have that even in the best of circumstances, much less in less-than-transparent governments like Iran. But we do have reasonable models of how the parties perceive each other, actions, outcomes, and probability of success. That is enough for informed analysis, especially in mass protest situations, where there is relative homogeneity of access to information on the protest side. They don't have any reason to keep secrets, and indeed have an incentive to distribute information as broadly as possible. They don't know the government's secrets, and neither do we. If the protests fail, and even if they succeed, we may not know those for decades, or ever.

[Watser?]

[Watser?]

Okay, personally I have a feeling the crackdown is going to succeed. Moussavi will back down and the rest is mopping up. It will make a pretty serious dent in the Islamic Republic's credibility though in the long run.