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Old 10-27-2009, 06:52 AM
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Default Most insurgents in AFGH not motivated by religion

I didn't say it. The US military intelligence said it:

Quote:
Taliban not main Afghan enemy

Few militants driven by religion, reports say
By Bryan Bender, Globe Staff | October 9, 2009

WASHINGTON - Nearly all of the insurgents battling US and NATO troops in Afghanistan are not religiously motivated Taliban and Al Qaeda warriors, but a new generation of tribal fighters vying for control of territory, mineral wealth, and smuggling routes, according to summaries of new US intelligence reports.

Some of the major insurgent groups, including one responsible for a spate of recent American casualties, actually opposed the Taliban’s harsh Islamic government in Afghanistan during the 1990s, according to the reports, described by US officials under the condition they not be identified.

“Ninety percent is a tribal, localized insurgency,’’ said one US intelligence official in Washington who helped draft the assessments. “Ten percent are hardcore ideologues fighting for the Taliban.’’

US commanders and politicians often loosely refer to the enemy as the Taliban or Al Qaeda, giving rise to the image of holy warriors seeking to spread a fundamentalist form of Islam. But the mostly ethnic Pashtun fighters are often deeply connected by family and social ties to the valleys and mountains where they are fighting, and they see themselves as opposing the United States be cause it is an occupying power, the officials and analysts said.
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  #2  
Old 10-27-2009, 07:24 AM
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Default Re: Most insurgents in AFGH not motivated by religion

"Taliban" is a kind of generic word used for students, isn't it?

It is my understanding that it has always been a tribal situation and that the "Taliban" that came to rule after the departure of the Soviets was strongly tribal in nature, most of the leadership being the students of a particular imam from south Afghanistan, Mullah Omar.

I had a friend who went into Afghanistan during the Soviet war....he wrote a book about it. When asked about the country, he would just shake his head and talk about tribal animosities going back centuries. I got the impression he believes they are incapable of forming a modern state...at least in the current border configuration.
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Old 10-27-2009, 11:45 AM
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Default Re: Most insurgents in AFGH not motivated by religion

I could have sworn I made mention of this phenomenon before. Of the various different groups we have operating in our AO, there's only one which we feel is purely ideologically motivated. Granted, they are also Thorn #1 in our side and are causing a fairly disproportionate amount of our problems: Simply because an opposition group is the most numerous does not mean that they have the greatest effect.

Face it, for the people who are planting bombs for a few hundred dollars, eventually there is a risk-to-reward ratio which they don't cross. We've had very little trouble in one part of our AO ever since we got lucky and counter-ambushed the opposition and killed a number of them. According to sources, the remaining opposition decided 'Sod this, it's not worth it, I'm going back home." Prior to then, they had been quite a nuisance, but were never willing to take enough risk to cause us any serious harm. The ideological ones, however, are a different story. They are determined, skilled, ruthless and have effects beyond their numbers because they are not so risk-averse to the point of ineffectiveness (Which, arguably, NATO is). Ultimately, we're not so worried about the non-ideological types: They can be bought, negotiated with, or otherwise neutralised as a problem over time. The ideological people, there is no middle ground.

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got the impression he believes they are incapable of forming a modern state...at least in the current border configuration.
I think they are, but not in the Western governmental configuration. For some reason, people are convinced that having nationwide elections, parliaments, and all sorts of other things are going to work here. They have grass-roots democracy here, they elect their Maliks, they have regional Jirgas which work well. The solution is elections from bottom up, not top down. It is not tribalism here to the point that the tribes simply cannot work together and will always be to the point of the Hatfields and McCoys. There is rivalry, absolutely, but that has not stopped the tribes from ever talking to each other and working together.

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Old 10-27-2009, 04:25 PM
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Default Re: Most insurgents in AFGH not motivated by religion

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Originally Posted by California Tanker View Post
Ultimately, we're not so worried about the non-ideological types: They can be bought, negotiated with, or otherwise neutralised as a problem over time. The ideological people, there is no middle ground.
This seems to miss completely the vast and crucial middle ground between (what you're calling) ideology and the ambush-entrepreneurs: namely, the very people described in the intelligence reports:

Quote:
tribal fighters vying for control of territory, mineral wealth, and smuggling routes, according to summaries of new US intelligence reports.... “Ninety percent is a tribal, localized insurgency,’’ said one US intelligence official.. the mostly ethnic Pashtun fighters are often deeply connected by family and social ties to the valleys and mountains where they are fighting, and they see themselves as opposing the United States be cause it is an occupying power, the officials and analysts said.
It is hard to see why you would think that anything other than ephemeral, small-scale success could be had in attempting to buy off or negotiate away such phenomena as ethnic identity, social ties, family duties, or tribal law. These are ideological in their own way, and if less explicit or astringent than sheer doctrinal religious ideology, they are surely more resilient and deeply rooted in the entire way of life. Thinking of it in terms of a disjunction between religious nutjobs and low-rent mercenaries strikes me as disastrous.
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Old 10-27-2009, 06:25 PM
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Default Re: Most insurgents in AFGH not motivated by religion

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It is hard to see why you would think that anything other than ephemeral, small-scale success could be had in attempting to buy off or negotiate away such phenomena as ethnic identity, social ties, family duties, or tribal law
You're misinterpreting what I'm saying. I'm not talking about the US negotiating or buying off, as you (and the report) points out, the nationalistic types aren't all that interested in working with Americans. I'm talking about Afghans doing that. But before the central government can be in a position where it can undertake such negotiations from a position where it commands a bit of respect from the populace (which, face it, right now it generally doesn't), it needs to deal firstly with that small portion of the opposition which are not going to compromise, because dealing with them afterwards is, for practical purposes, impossible.

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Old 10-27-2009, 06:29 PM
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Default Re: Most insurgents in AFGH not motivated by religion

Thanks for the clarification. I don't see how it's any more plausible that the Afghan leadership will be able to buy or negotiate an end to insurgency if those social, tribal forces are opposed to the American/NATO presence.
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Old 10-28-2009, 01:02 PM
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Default Re: Most insurgents in AFGH not motivated by religion

The two are related, but not identical. Once the Taliban problem is under control, there is much less need for Americans to go 'violating' the territory of the tribes. The tribes do not seem to be against a central goverment in and of itself, they are more than aware that with the governnment comes roads, telephones, schools, healthcare, and so on and so forth which are well liked. It basically comes down to a balance between the benefits of government and the extent to which they are willing to let the government influence their lifes beyond the 'What's in it for me?' factor which is so prevalent in this country.

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Old 10-29-2009, 12:51 AM
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Default Re: Most insurgents in AFGH not motivated by religion

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Originally Posted by California Tanker View Post
The tribes do not seem to be against a central goverment in and of itself, they are more than aware that with the governnment comes roads, telephones, schools, healthcare, and so on and so forth which are well liked.
Wow. Governments are supposed to provide all that?

I'm sold. Can we have a government here in America, too?

Please?
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  #9  
Old 10-29-2009, 02:07 AM
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Default Re: Most insurgents in AFGH not motivated by religion

I would think that Mr. Hoh's commentary on the situation in Afghanistan would have enlightened this thread....

Has everyone read it, or should we post up his resignation letter here?
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