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  #2701  
Old 10-14-2018, 03:01 AM
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Default Re: Good King Trump

I found this to be a good read, reflecting on the last two years since it was written.

A.R. Moxon: January 2017
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  #2702  
Old 10-16-2018, 02:18 AM
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Default Re: Good King Trump

Surprise, serial liar who never makes good on his word, suddenly doesn't make good on his word!

Trump: To Elizabeth Warren while being a complete asshole, "I will give you a million dollars to your favorite charity, paid for by Trump, if you take the test and it shows you're an Indian."

Elizabeth Warren has taken the test and wants him to pay up. As expected Trump has denied he ever made that promise even though it's on video because we know his process is to never ever ever admit the truth.

ďWho cares?Ē asked Trump.

And he's right, his base doesn't give a shit if he lies, it was all a dumb troll, a way to insult her. He got people to play his game how he wants and then he takes his ball away at the end anyway.

I'm a bit annoyed and worried about this because it says that democrats still don't know how to handle our baby in chief and still treat him like an adult. We don't need more proof he's a liar or a fraud, anyone who doesn't believe that by now never will. The only way to beat him at his game is to not play, as soon as you play you have already lost.

If dems really wanted to stick it to him what they should have done is donated a million dollars to an Indigenous women's charity, because it's the right thing to do, and then put out a press release saying that since they know Trump is a lying coward they didn't even bother to ask him to donate since they know he wouldn't because he never makes good on anything he says, so they went ahead and did it for him as the adults in the room. I'm pretty sure one of the things that pisses Trump off to no end is people talking over him like he's not even there. When he 2am tweets about it after his MCBurger comedown, give a quick, "shhh the adults who do real work are talking." I bet a bit of dismissive negging would get him to donate more just to prove that he's better than them.
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  #2703  
Old 10-16-2018, 02:47 AM
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Default Re: Good King Trump

:dddp:

(the forum seems to take a particular disliking to posts that take so long to write that my cookie session expires. I’ll have to remember that in the future)
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  #2704  
Old 10-16-2018, 02:47 AM
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I mean, on one hand, yes, he was obviously never going to donate $1M to charity. But Warren can use this to attack him for at least the next two years now. It wonít make the slightest bit of difference to his base, but his base isnít large enough to win elections. For people on the margins Ė the much-discussed Obama-to-Trump voters Ė this might be persuasive. There werenít as many of those voters as a lot of the news coverage would lead you to think there were, but flip enough of them back to the Democratic category and thatís the ball game. And the studies of these voters Iíve seen seem to suggest that theyíre disproportionately more middle/working-class than the median Trump voters, and reminders that Trump has actually had a long history of screwing over people like them might prove to be fairly persuasive as well.

What Iím more worried about regarding a Warren run, and Iím not sure that this can be avoided, is media misogyny, alongside the way the Party of Calhoun has already geared up to make her their bogeyman, much as they did to Clinton in 2016. To be clear, I donít think we should use ďwhat will the Party of Calhoun say?Ē as a metric for selecting a candidate, as that effectively gives them a fair amount of say into who we select based purely on the attacks theyíve already built up. It was pretty clear theyíd have preferred to face Sanders in 2016 rather than Clinton. Although he polled well against a generic GrOP nominee, I donít know that that would have held up had he won the primary and faced the full Fox Noise machine.

But Iím stillÖ worried. I think Warren is the foil this country needs to Trump, if not the foil it deserves. But Iím not sure the countryís yet capable of appreciating her. The actual problem I foresee is the strain of anti-intellectualism we have in this country, meshed with the virulent misogyny that has become all the more obvious and pervasive in recent years. Weíve started purging the media of harassers, which is good, but we havenít gotten all of them, and I doubt weíll have gotten even a quarter of them by the time the 2020 campaign really kicks into gear.

So the issue is, then, the fact that Warren is obviously smart, alongside the fact that sheís a woman, combined with the fact that the GOP has already started to demonise her. I hope she can get elected. I would love to see her be the 46th POTUS. But Iím worried, because Iím not 100% confident that weíre ready. Like I said, sheís the foil we need, but I donít think we, collectively as a country, deserve her yet. Charlie Pierce at Esquire affectionately refers to her as Senator Professor Warren, but Iím not sure everyone would regard her professorial demeanour affectionately. In fact, Iím sure many people wouldnít. And Iím not sure how to thread that needle.

Despite this, Warren has some political strengths that I donít frequently see in this country. She is, honestly, one of the few people I see on the national stage effectively and constructively expressing the anger that the working class of this country justifiably feels over conditions in this country. Sheís one of the few people even talking about issues like the gap between productivity and wages, or just generalised corruption, in a way that makes sense and is easily digestible to people who donít follow politics. Sheís been a credible crusader against these things for decades, long before she was a partisan political figure. And she canít be accused of being a radical; sheís squarely in the FDR mold of wanting to reform this countryís economic system so it doesnít eat itself. Iíd love to see an actual radical capable of getting elected president, but I know thatís not the case yet. She has anti-corruption bona fides that can resonate well in the age of emoluments violations and open bribery.

But, like I said, Iím not sure how to balance that with the political environment. Warren has become an object of partisan rancour in a way that some other outspoken liberal Democratic senators, even women, havenít yet. Harris and Gillibrand are well known to political junkies, but for whatever reason, I havenít yet seen the same kind of attacks against them from Republicans (in fact, the worst attacks Iíve seen against Gillibrand have been from ostensible Democrats and/or ostensible leftists, though Iíll admit I deliberately avoid reading what the right-wing fever swamps say, since Iím dealing with enough trauma already). The Wingnut Wurlitzer will certainly do its worst against Gillibrand or Harris if either is the nominee, but I question whether they can create the same polarised reaction in the course of two years that they had twenty-five years to build against Clinton andÖ IDK, is it eight years against Warren so far?

But I canít game any of this out in any meaningful sense, and I think anyone who claims they can is lying or delusional. Iíve commented before that Trump resembles the Mule from the Foundation series in how heís upended the rules of politics. Factors that used to be important arenít now, and factors that used to be trifles now matter immensely; however, we have such a small sample size of elections to evaluate the impact of various sociopolitical factors on election results that any data we have right now is essentially meaningless. Media misogyny is obviously a factor we have to be concerned about, but so is Trump fatigue. Itís possible that misogynistic attacks against Warren would hit their mark and destroy her; itís also possible that in the age of #MeToo they would backfire and turn off voters. Just because something worked in 2016, with the assistance of Russian trolls, James Comey, a media largely run by abusive misogynists, and numerous other wildcards, some of which certainly wonít recur in 2020, doesnít mean it will again. And the decisive factor is as likely as not to be something people havenít considered yet. Particularly after that sham of an Ďinvestigationí of Kavanaugh, Iím certainly worried about the FBI repeating its disgraceful 2016 performance in two years from now (and for that matter, this/next month). Iíd hope enough swing voters wouldnít fall for the same trick twice, but itís impossible to know. There isnít enough data.

Regardless, my three top candidates on the 2020 shortlist are women: Harris, Gillibrand, and Warren (in that order right now, but that could change tomorrow depending upon my mood). #4 is Booker, so still not a white dude. I think white dudes have had long enough to screw this planet up, and the best president of my lifetime Ė by a massive margin Ė is the only one who wasnít a white dude. Regardless, Iím not trying to exclude white dudes from my list; there simply arenít any that impress me that much. Adam Schiff is the only one I can imagine putting on that list right now, but itís probably borderline impossible to run for the presidency while only being a Congressman. Then again, heís still far more experienced in government than Trump! (Also, Sheldon Whitehouse is a dark horse candidate because really, heíd have the best slogan ever. But while he impressed me during the Kavanaugh hearings, I admit heís my dark horse candidate as much because of his name as anything.)
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  #2705  
Old 10-16-2018, 03:07 AM
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Default Re: Good King Trump

Escrow, people, escrow.
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  #2706  
Old 10-16-2018, 08:26 AM
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Default Re: Good King Trump

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I mean, on one hand, yes, he was obviously never going to donate $1M to charity. But Warren can use this to attack him for at least the next two years now.
Sure, but there are literally hundreds of other lies to attack him on, as soon as she starts going on and on about it, he's going to make some sort of nagging women on their periods joke and his cult will larf and larf like seals and she will lose any power it has.

Not to mention it's a kinda odd thing to take him to task on, that might not win her many non-white votes (what few non-whites are allowed to vote after the records get stripped here) since claiming native american heritage is not only common among white americans, it's been used as a way to strip the last bits of cultural heritage from natives with what are white people claiming to have relations to cherokee princesses or the like.
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  #2707  
Old 10-16-2018, 08:49 AM
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(the forum seems to take a particular disliking to posts that take so long to write that my cookie session expires. Iíll have to remember that in the future)
Do you check ""Remember me" on the login page? It seems this makes a difference, even if you clear cookies at the end of your session (good privacy practice) and save login (with a master password).

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so long
You're not kidding :P
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  #2708  
Old 10-16-2018, 09:28 AM
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Default Re: Good King Trump

I think the move is aimed more at the media than voters. The goal isn't to convince people who laugh at "Pocahontas" that she's honest and correct. While she couldn't resist calling out Trump's promise breaking on the $1 mil, I don't think she'll campaign on that (and she shouldn't).

The point is to get the media out of the both sides/"he said, she said" frame on this story and treat it as a non-story with a clear correct answer. This is how the birther shit turned into "only a ridiculous conspiracy theorist thinks Obama wasn't born in the US" frame, to the point where even Trump was forced to back down (he had to say "Obama was born in the United States. Period."). If Obama hadn't released his birth certificate, I don't think that would've happened.
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  #2709  
Old 10-16-2018, 10:14 AM
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Except the Birth certificate thing was about him not being eligible to be president. Unless native blood is required for something she's doing, it's all just a side tiff. One that's being handled wrong since we know that Trump will happily lie about donating money, so saying 'pay up' means nothing and saying 'oh I see you don't honor your bets' means nothing. All it means is that they're playing the Trump game.

Sure even Trump admitted he's born in the US, and yet Trump was still elected. Getting Trump to say, once, that the Birth Certificate was real didn't actually accomplish anything.

One of the things I don't think the democratic party has realized yet is that facts, figures and truth, mean absolutely nothing to a huge swath of american voters. It's all about the feeling, the emotion of the situation. Many want to *feel* like they are winning, it doesn't matter if they really are winning or not, it's all about the feeling of being on top. To knock Trump down a peg, and make his voter base shrink away from celebrating him they need to make those people feel like they backed a loser. Showing that Trump is a liar won't do that. Getting under Trumps skin, causing him to have 2am twitter emotional outbursts, showing that they can control him gets closer to things that will cause his base to shy away. A large part of conservative views is about having control, their entire platform boils down to showing they have power by exerting control over others in one way or another. (Just look at how closely 'Trump supporter' and 'Troll' go together. Trolling is all about taking power and control away from others.)
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  #2710  
Old 10-16-2018, 06:34 PM
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Default Re: Good King Trump

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Sure even Trump admitted he's born in the US, and yet Trump was still elected. Getting Trump to say, once, that the Birth Certificate was real didn't actually accomplish anything.
In fact, he turned the whole goddamn thing on its head. That press conference was, for me, one of the biggest jaw-droppers of the whole campaign. He gathered reporters from every major news outlet, announced that Clinton started the birther movement in 2007-08, and trumpeted the "fact" that his efforts in getting Obama to release his long form birth certificate put the issue to rest and exposed the Clinton-created birther movement as bogus.

-----------

Well, at least art is flourishing under the Trump administration. Witness this really cool painting that hangs in the White House, featuring Trump keeping company with Ronald Reagan, both Bushes, Tricky Dick, Dwight Eisenhower, Teddy Roosevelt and, of course, Abraham Lincoln.

The truly amazing aspect of this story is that the painting was not the work of that Jon McNaughton clown.
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  #2711  
Old 10-16-2018, 08:28 PM
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Default Re: Good King Trump

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The point is to get the media out of the both sides/"he said, she said" frame on this story and treat it as a non-story with a clear correct answer.
Aaaaaaaaaand the media (ABC News, at least) takes the opportunity to report entirely on what Trump said about it.

Good ol' American media, dutifully playing along with the guy who says they're his enemy. Yet again.
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  #2712  
Old 10-16-2018, 08:53 PM
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Default Re: Good King Trump

The media is certainly easy to neg, conservatives have been doing it for such a long time. How do you get the media to air conservative nut jobs? Keep calling them the liberal media, then they will 'prove' to you that they aren't really the liberal media by having on more and more crazy conservatives. Same with Trump, he keeps calling them the enemy so more than a few outlets take the bait and try to prove to him that no no, they aren't really the enemy. Would your enemy devout even more time to you? Oh why don't you love us Trump?!
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  #2713  
Old 10-17-2018, 06:53 AM
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so saying 'pay up' means nothing and saying 'oh I see you don't honor your bets' means nothing. All it means is that they're playing the Trump game.
Oh I agree that pointing out his word is worthless won't accomplish anything. I can see why she took the bait but I also don't think it matters that much at this point.

It would be dumb to waste any time mocking Trump for that in the actual 2020 campaign though.
Quote:
Sure even Trump admitted he's born in the US, and yet Trump was still elected. Getting Trump to say, once, that the Birth Certificate was real didn't actually accomplish anything.
I don't think you can conclude that because Hillary didn't win that nothing actually accomplished anything. I think her debate performances accomplished something. If she hadn't handled him so well in the debates, and the Comey letter still comes out, you could easily see Trump winning the popular vote.

Margins matter, and the fact that Trump won doesn't mean that any particular thing didn't do anything. If it moved the margin, it made him closer to losing.

So the question is whether Trump's birtherism being treated as an issue for him rather than an issue for Obama helped or hurt Trump's vote margin. I'm not so sure that it helped Trump.

Obviously, Trump used the opportunity to lie about Clinton and all, but he still had to back down and he clearly didn't like doing it (and clearly his advisors had to convince him to do it).
Quote:
One of the things I don't think the democratic party has realized yet is that facts, figures and truth, mean absolutely nothing to a huge swath of american voters. It's all about the feeling, the emotion of the situation. Many want to *feel* like they are winning, it doesn't matter if they really are winning or not, it's all about the feeling of being on top. To knock Trump down a peg, and make his voter base shrink away from celebrating him they need to make those people feel like they backed a loser.
Trump backing down on the birther stuff seems to me not like a win for him, even with the other lies he spewed at the occasion.

Anyway, I don't know whether it was the right move for Warren or not, but it probably won't be clear until later whether it was or not. She certainly didn't handle aspects of it very well, IMO. But the more important thing is how the story is handled if and when she's actually running for president... which will still be months off.

I think the goal is, for example, not to have the media (in interviews or debates) asking her dumb questions about whether she really has any Native American ancestors or whether she claimed minority status, the way Clinton had to answer questions about the stupid email shit like 100 times even though nothing new would be gained. How they react to Donald's blathering today isn't very relevant to whether she succeeded at that...
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  #2714  
Old 10-18-2018, 05:36 AM
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The Pocahontas thing is going to be baggage, just like her emails and the Clinton Foundation etc were baggage. It's just like Ari said, Trump's cult will be chanting Pocahontas, Pocahontas! or some dumb shit. It would be all that's needed to peel off the indies, just like last election. We can't get there without indies, and I don't think Warren will appeal to them. My impression is that indies tend to lean a bit right, in general. Trump can't get there without Indies, either. I'm thinking Sherrod Brown or someone from the midwest. Just keep them under the counter until it's time, a la WJC. Don't give them time to get the mud mill up to full steam.

Excuse me for oversimplifying, but running Warren would essentially be repeating the same mistake as when we ran Dukakis*. Very limited appeal.

*Throw in Kerry for good measure. The Northeast Liberal Elite tag. It's a thing.
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  #2715  
Old 10-18-2018, 06:18 AM
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Default Re: Good King Trump

I don't think the Pocahontas stuff is a reason not to run Warren.

But I also am not sure whether she's the best campaigner or has the broadest appeal. But there's plenty of time to consider the choices. But at the same time it's not going to be 2016 where there were really only two choices... it's going to be harder to decide...
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  #2716  
Old 10-18-2018, 06:43 AM
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Default Re: Good King Trump

IMO if the dems are running anyone against Trump in the exact same system we had last time, then we've lost and it's time not to worry about exactly who but how we're going to tear the system apart and start anew. If someone so blatantly corrupt as Trump is still in office running in the same broken you can have the people vote against you and still win system, then there's little chance finding just the right candidate is going to help. Two more years of blatant corruption and voter registry purges and I won't be too surprised if Trump is sworn in as president before the votes happen.

It really won't matter who runs against him if voting against him gets you put on a watch list for voter fraud.
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Old 10-18-2018, 04:37 PM
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Default Re: Good King Trump

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Originally Posted by erimir View Post
I don't think the Pocahontas stuff is a reason not to run Warren.

But I also am not sure whether she's the best campaigner or has the broadest appeal. But there's plenty of time to consider the choices. But at the same time it's not going to be 2016 where there were really only two choices... it's going to be harder to decide...
It's the perfect smear. It folds in the race traitor for the neo nazis (who will ask, why is she claiming NA like she's proud of it?), affirmative action for the white guy who thinks he's under seige and discriminated against (she got into Yale, was it?, claiming minority status!), which will lead them to saying she's dishonest (oh, the ironing). Of course that's all dumb shit and fundamentally untrue, but dumb shit works on the base he needs to get out and vote, and it's enough to sway enough indies again. I really seriously doubt she would win.

She's already fatally wounded.
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  #2718  
Old 10-19-2018, 12:14 PM
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Default Re: Good King Trump

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[Warren]'s already fatally wounded.

Discuss.
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Old 10-19-2018, 12:15 PM
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Default Re: Good King Trump

Trump hails body slamming Congressman Greg Gianforte in Montana - BBC News

Gianforte's apology for the violence that has so endeared him to Trump is ironic, because "unprofessional, unacceptable and unlawful" is a fair description of Trump's character and career both in and out of the White House.
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Old 10-19-2018, 02:10 PM
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Originally Posted by mickthinks View Post
"unprofessional, unacceptable and unlawful"
It was practically a job application, aimed at Tr*mp.
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  #2721  
Old 10-19-2018, 11:22 PM
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Default Re: Good King Trump

Go Betsy go. Lets see what you got sister
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  #2722  
Old Yesterday, 02:48 AM
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Default Re: Good King Trump

Quote:
Originally Posted by SR71 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by erimir View Post
I don't think the Pocahontas stuff is a reason not to run Warren.

But I also am not sure whether she's the best campaigner or has the broadest appeal. But there's plenty of time to consider the choices. But at the same time it's not going to be 2016 where there were really only two choices... it's going to be harder to decide...
It's the perfect smear. It folds in the race traitor for the neo nazis (who will ask, why is she claiming NA like she's proud of it?), affirmative action for the white guy who thinks he's under seige and discriminated against (she got into Yale, was it?, claiming minority status!), which will lead them to saying she's dishonest (oh, the ironing). Of course that's all dumb shit and fundamentally untrue, but dumb shit works on the base he needs to get out and vote, and it's enough to sway enough indies again. I really seriously doubt she would win.

She's already fatally wounded.
:yeahthat:

In trying to neutralize a truly stupid line of attack, she engaged Trump in Trump's game. She cannot win it. It hardly matters, though. Even without the unforced error, assuming Trump survives and runs again in 2020, she is not viable to oppose him. Neither is Biden or Harris or Booker. They are good people and would make fine candidates if 2020 were 2016. But it will not be and they will fail. If Trump makes it to 2020, he will be re-elected. If he does not, the mini-Trump that rises to the top of the ticket will very likely win. To think otherwise is to deny the corrosions happening on every side only to cling to the notion that, somehow, 2020 will not be warped by the acid that Trumpism forces into every vein of American politics. Like the United States itself, reactionary state white nationalism may not last forever, but it is hardly a flash in the pan.
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  #2723  
Old Yesterday, 04:02 AM
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I read some of your foolish scree, then just skimmed the rest.
 
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Default Re: Good King Trump

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChuckF View Post
warped by the acid that Trumpism forces into every vein of American politics. Like the United States itself, reactionary state white nationalism may not last forever, but it is hardly a flash in the pan.
That's the thing that's worrisome, It's obvious that republicans know how to play the rule from the rich minority game with partisan gerrymandered areas and voter suppression tactics and single issue rallying calls. Now that the Trump administration has put so many people in key positions any validation of the administration by say a 2nd term is just going to set these people wild, cutting rights for anyone they don't deem acceptable.

Frankly if somehow Trump gets elected for a 2nd term, doesn't change the term limits, and after he finishes that second term the country isn't in economic ruin, I will be surprised.
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