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  #176  
Old 05-12-2019, 10:20 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Just wanted to note something about Biden's strong position in the polls...

Anyone who, in 2016, told us that Trump winning would "bring the revolution" and energize the left and result in a left-wing victory needs to explain how Biden's commanding polling lead fits into this theory. They thought that it was going to be Bernie's turn and everyone would view the lesson as "Bernie woulda won."

Of course, they've also had several months to explain why it is that DSA/Our Revolution/Justice Democrats endorsees didn't flip a single Congressional district and the argument there seems to be basically "Sure, we didn't flip any seats but look how much media attention AOC is getting!" Which is good, but it isn't what was advertised by the heighten-the-contradictions crew.

Which isn't me arguing that those type of candidates are bad. Some of them got quite close, like JD Scholten coming closer to unseating Steve King than any previous Democrat*, but the notion that other Democrats have a losing strategy and you have a much more winning one isn't really supported by them doing about the same or only slightly better.

My view is that wins for the leftmost viable candidate are more likely to shift politics in the country to the left, rather than wins for the more right-wing candidates. Too clever by half, I know.

And now we see Republicans looking to rig the census to push reapportionment towards red states and enabling more voter suppression and the GOP-dominated Supreme Court is unlikely to do anything about gerrymandering, or explicitly rule in its favor. All of which makes the "revolution" less likely.

So instead of bringing the revolution, we're quite likely to get Biden, who has a more centrist record as a politician than the hated Hillary Clinton. Good job *roll Curb Your Enthusiasm music*

(And just to be clear: I'm only talking about people who thought that Trump winning would move the country more to the left than a Clinton win and that it would result in a clear mandate for the left-wing to control the Democratic Party, etc. People who argue that Bernie would've been a better candidate or president but still viewed a Clinton victory over Trump as better for the left are not who I'm talking about.)

*when you adjust for the national environment, King winning by 3 while Democrats won nationally by almost 9 pts means the district result was 12 pts more GOP. But in 2012, Christie Vilsack lost by 6 pts in a national environment that was Democrats winning by 1 pt, which is arguably a stronger performance. But the shift towards the GOP in Iowa makes it hard to say who was really the stronger candidate. Or perhaps the conclusion is that Steve King is a weak candidate?
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  #177  
Old 05-15-2019, 12:36 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

For a Union Man, Joe Biden Sure Has a Lot of Big Donors Who Aren’t Fond of Labor
Quote:
Joe Biden would like to project that he is a friend of the working man. Look at the picture above, from his very first campaign event: Rolling up his sleeves and gripping the lectern to talk tough at a union hall in steel country. He’s also recently spoken at a rally in support of the Stop and Shop workers’ strike in Boston and been endorsed by the International Association of Fire Fighters.

When he’s not doing campaign rallies, though, Biden has been doing some other stuff, like holding his first fundraiser at a mansion owned by the Comcast executive who supervises lobbying operations for the giant telecom company. Comcast’s lobbying division, in turn, works with the hugely influential American Legislative Exchange Council, which writes right-wing legislation—including “right to work,” “stand your ground” and voter-ID laws—on behalf of Republican state legislators. A canned quote from the Comcast exec who hosted Biden’s fundraiser actually shows up in a press release on ALEC’s website, while the New York Times recently wrote that Comcast’s relationship with organized labor “is often strained” and said it has “largely managed to fend off efforts by groups like the Communications Workers of America to organize its employees.”
Say it ain't so, Joe.

Biden Predicts Republicans Will Start Working With Democrats After the Election, Which Is Also What He Predicted in 2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Biden in 2012
“There are still some solid Republican conservatives who understand what principled compromise means and are not wrapped up in ideological purity,” said Biden, insisting he knew a dozen Republican senators and up to three dozen House members that want to work with the Democrats.

After the election is over, Biden said members will say “’Hey man I no longer have an obligation to stick with the right of the party’… I really believe you’ll see movement. Real movement.”
That was a thing.
Quote:
Said Biden on Tuesday: “I just think there is a way, and the thing that will fundamentally change things is with Donald Trump out of the White House. … You will see an epiphany occur among many of my Republican friends.” As the 2012 quote indicates, Biden has been dealing with Republican intransigence and derangement since before Trump was a major figure in the party, which one would think would indicate to him that the current president is not the sole cause of its extremism. But when bringing everyone in the country together through the sheer force of your personality is the singular theme of your campaign, I suppose you can’t let a decade or so of history get in the way.
I can't tell if this is signalling, cover, centrism, recruiting, or how he actually thinks
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  #178  
Old 05-15-2019, 12:48 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition


Merrick Garland.
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  #179  
Old 05-15-2019, 06:09 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

I would push the button, but not with any enthusiasm. It would be more like starting the washing machine, just another task that can't be avoided.
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  #180  
Old 05-15-2019, 06:47 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Joe Biden is awful. He may be the worst of all the candidates.

But if he wins (please, no :beg:) I hope everyone else pulls behind him 100% against Trump.
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  #181  
Old 05-15-2019, 06:53 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Corporate Grandpa with the nuke button sounds much nicer than Batshit Grandpa with the nuke button.
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  #182  
Old 05-15-2019, 09:29 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

The idea that an epiphany will cause the "fever to break" is dumb, but not so much more dumb than the idea that there will be a "political revolution" and protesters at McConnell's office or whatever will force the GOP to cooperate.

In Biden's case, I think appeals to bipartisanship could just be cynical pandering. Fact is that there are still plenty of voters who believe/want to believe that the GOP isn't what it is. Obama claimed there is no red America or blue America, and he could bring the country together in 2008, and that was wrong, but he did, after all, win that election. Obama and Biden may have predicted that the "fever [would] break" in 2012, and that prediction was obviously completely wrong, but they did, after all, win that election, too. So it's not obvious that it's a losing message. It could well be a winning message again.

He could campaign on that message and then after a month or two of making a show of trying, claim that it's obvious he was wrong and he's going to go forward without their cooperation. FDR campaigned on a balanced budget in 1932 then turned around and gave us the New Deal with deficit spending. Likewise, I don't expect Bernie Sanders to necessarily really believe his own bullshit about a "political revolution" forcing the GOP to do anything. The structural factors that make them able to behave the way they do won't go away even if Sanders wins a decisive victory (7-8 pt popular vote margin, say). They will know that their gerrymandering, voter suppression and Senate advantages will reassert themselves in the 2022 midterms, as they did in 2010. Sanders could also adopt a different approach early on, of making structural reforms, even feeding some bullshit about this being "the political revolution" or that the revolution needs these changes.

The only thing that will break the GOP's fever is changes that reduce their structural advantage, which leads to repeated losses until they change their strategy. That means eliminating the filibuster, adding new states to reduce their Senate advantage, and passing a new and expansive voting rights bill to put an end to gerrymandering and voter suppression, etc. After we've expanded our Senate majority and put a stop to GOP gerrymandering in the House, we'll have a more even playing field, and can then pursue other changes that help.

Supporting unionization rights would be good, for example, in both providing material benefits to workers AND in building Democratic power. Also important would be doing what you can (while respecting free speech) to break the power of right-wing and corporate media.

Neither political revolutions nor epiphanies will deliver a sane and responsible Republican Party, only breaking their sources of minoritarian power will. Now, I happen to prefer candidates like Elizabeth Warren that I am quite sure understand what needs to be done, but I don't assume that Biden or Sanders definitely don't.
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  #183  
Old 05-19-2019, 12:21 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by slimshady2357 View Post
Joe Biden is awful. He may be the worst of all the candidates.

But if he wins (please, no :beg:) I hope everyone else pulls behind him 100% against Trump.

The guy is so full of shit it's incredible. Let's see how long he can keep feeding off the Obama nostalgia and his huge fake ass smile when the debates start.
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  #184  
Old 05-23-2019, 02:30 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

DeBlasio now. All this just to circle back round and heave unca joe back up on the pick me! pick me! wagon? Weird.
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  #185  
Old 05-23-2019, 02:52 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Pretty much the only message Uncle Grope and No Change seems to have is that he's not Donald Trump.

Hmm, what's that?

Joe Biden once said a fence was needed to stop 'tons' of drugs from Mexico - CNNPolitics

Quote:
Joe Biden once spoke about jailing employers who hire "illegals," said sanctuary cities shouldn't be allowed to violate federal law, and argued a fence was needed stop "tons" of drugs coming into the country from "corrupt Mexico."
A couple of weeks ago he actually claimed that he had the "most progressive record" of anyone running for President. God that guy is full of shit. Go away.
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  #186  
Old Yesterday, 09:14 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

I hate this headline and think elect-ability to be used as if there was an objective measure of such waaaaay too often. That said Ted Rall makes an argument similar to my own: middle of the road candidates poll well but fail to attract voters at the election, and attempting to shame or scare voters to your cause has limited returns; Rall additionally argues running another centrist will come at a very real cost to the Dem party.
Why Joe Biden is the Least Electable Democrat
Quote:
As one of the few pundits who correctly called the 2016 election for Donald Trump, it would be wise to rest on my laurels rather than risk another prediction, one that might turn out wrong.

But how would that be fun? Let the 2020 political prognostications begin!

The arithmetic of the 2016 Republican presidential primaries is repeating itself on the Democratic side in 2020: a big field of candidates, one of whom commands a plurality by virtue of name recognition—which implies higher “electability”—while his 20-or-so opponents divvy up the rest of the single-digit electoral scraps.

The Trump 2016 dynamic will probably play out the same way when Democratic delegates are counted at the 2020 convention. But the outcome in November 2020 is likely to be the opposite: Trump gets reelected.
Rall's setting is hard cynic; if you ever want to read a very dark autobiographical graphic novel his My War With Brian about going to junior-high school in Ohio is insane.
Quote:
I tend to discount “blue no matter who” and “anyone but Trump” chatter from centrist Democrats who argue that this president is such a threat to everything good and decent about the world that everyone must set their personal preferences aside in order to vote the bastard out. Besides, many of the people who urge unity have no credibility. They voted for Hillary but if Bernie had been the nominee they would not have turned out for him. Progressives weren’t born yesterday. Tired of 40 years of marginalization, they turned a deaf ear to the Clintonites’ self-serving unity pleas, boycotted the general election and denied Hillary her “inevitable” win.

And here’s the thing: they don’t feel bad about it.

If anything the schism in the Democratic Party between the progressive majority (72%) and corporatist centrist voters has widened and hardened over the past three years. Both sides are intransigent: Hillary’s voters accuse Bernie’s boycotters of handing the White House to Trump; Bernie’s supporters point to polls that consistently showed he, not Clinton, could have beat Trump.

Progressives are still angry that the Democratic establishment cheated Bernie Sanders out of the nomination last time. News that they’re doing the same thing now has enraged them.

That includes progressives who plan to vote for one of the other progressives or progressives-come-lately. By any measure, Joe Biden is not progressive. He’s number one in the polls but far behind the aggregate total of his progressive opponents. (I omit zero-policy candidates like Beto O’Rourke and Pete Buttigieg and centrists like Amy Klobuchar from my back-of-the-envelope calculations even though their support includes some progressives.) The party is ramming Biden the corporatist down the throats of Democratic primary voters using classic divide-and-conquer.

It will work. The Democrats will emerge from this nomination fight even more divided than the last cycle. Like the Mad Queen at the conclusion of “Game of Thrones,” Biden will inherit the ruins of a party he destroyed.
It doesn't get sunnier from there; Biden loses against Trump in Rall's estimations.
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  #187  
Old Yesterday, 11:36 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

First I'll note that Ted Rall endorsed Jill Stein, so his concern for beating Trump is... well, perhaps not nearly as high as some other people. Saying that there's a risk of alienating progressives while actively working to alienate progressives from the Democratic Party is an odd way of talking. Just come out with it and say that you think Clinton would be worse than Trump or likewise with Biden.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Rall
As one of the few pundits who correctly called the 2016 election for Donald Trump, it would be wise to rest on my laurels rather than risk another prediction, one that might turn out wrong.
Yeah, but keep in mind he also thought the Democrats wouldn't win the House unless they adopted his policy preferences and strategies, and ran his style of leftist campaign... And then they did win the House, and not one single candidate endorsed by Our Revolution/Justice Democrats/etc. flipped a Republican seat. It would be more interesting when someone who doesn't perennially predict Democratic failure predicted Trump would win. (See also: Michael Moore touting his Trump prediction... after also predicting Romney would win. Wow, 50% accuracy!) Unless he has an extensive record of accurate forecasts... this just isn't worth very much.
Quote:
The arithmetic of the 2016 Republican presidential primaries is repeating itself on the Democratic side in 2020: a big field of candidates, one of whom commands a plurality by virtue of name recognition—which implies higher “electability”—while his 20-or-so opponents divvy up the rest of the single-digit electoral scraps.
I don't see the connection between "name recognition" and "electability" he's proposing here. Bernie Sanders has nearly as high name recognition as Joe Biden but is substantially behind Biden in the primary horse race polls, and Trump's polling was initially abysmal - not in the lead, and with very poor favorability, in contrast to Biden having been in a fairly comfortable lead for months before he announced and having the highest favorability among both Democrats and the general public. Even after Trump took the lead in the polls, his favorability lagged far behind where Biden is. Trump has never achieved positive favorability at any point among the general public, whereas Joe Biden is polling with about +9 favorability - higher than any other Democratic candidate, as I mentioned (Sanders is, by contrast, at about -1 in the RCP average, and Warren is at -4).

I strongly prefer Elizabeth Warren to Joe Biden, but Biden's polling position is not at all like Trump's was in May/June 2015. Trump's favorability average in June 2015 was -39 (he's currently at -12) and he was polling in 8th place for the GOP nomination. The main thing he has in common is... high name recognition. But like I said, so does Bernie Sanders, and you wouldn't say this makes Sanders like Trump. This is a silly thing to use to insist commonality.
Quote:
The Trump 2016 dynamic will probably play out the same way when Democratic delegates are counted at the 2020 convention.
The rules of the Democratic primary and delegate allocation are substantially different from the Republican primary, so the dynamic may also be substantially different.
Quote:
I tend to discount “blue no matter who” and “anyone but Trump” chatter from centrist Democrats who argue that this president is such a threat to everything good and decent about the world that everyone must set their personal preferences aside in order to vote the bastard out. Besides, many of the people who urge unity have no credibility. They voted for Hillary but if Bernie had been the nominee they would not have turned out for him. Progressives weren’t born yesterday.
I certainly don't fall in that camp - I'll even vote for Tulsi fucking Gabbard over Trump. But I usually see the opposite claim, given that it's pretty essential to the claim that it's certain that "BERNIEWOODAWUN". The idea that Hillary voters would've defected from Bernie in perhaps even larger numbers suggests that Bernie would've lost, actually.
Quote:
Tired of 40 years of marginalization, they turned a deaf ear to the Clintonites’ self-serving unity pleas, boycotted the general election and denied Hillary her “inevitable” win.

And here’s the thing: they don’t feel bad about it.
And why the fuck is that? Is it because it's great for the lefty political revolution that Republicans have the SCOTUS putting stays on rulings overturning GOP gerrymandered maps (even if Clinton were unable to fill Scalia's seat, a deadlock would mean those lower court rulings would go into effect in the meantime). Is it great for the lefty political revolution that the SCOTUS is upholding voter suppression and allowing the Trump administration to rig the census so that immigrant-heavy states like California may end up with fewer seats in Congress? Is it great that the GOP SCOTUS is undermining unions? Will it be great for the lefty political revolution if Sanders is nominated when the Trump DOJ, now filled with corrupt Trump loyalists, decides to reopen the investigation into Jane Sanders dealings with Burlington College? (Oh, lol, you assumed only Crooked Hillary could be fucked over by the FBI, didn't you?)

I don't understand what the theory is here of why it's not something to feel bad about that you didn't try harder to stop Trump. Is the idea that this is going to lead to a leftist victory? Given that this entire post is about how Biden is winning and that's bad, that plan doesn't seem to be panning out very fucking well, does it? But even ignoring that, the theory that somehow you shouldn't feel bad about not voting to stop Trump, given that Trump is putting kids in cages or banning Muslims from entering, setting the stage to overturn Roe v. Wade, rolling back LGBT rights, giving massive tax breaks to the wealthy and corporations and letting Puerto Rico rot because it will all lead to something greater (too bad for those people who die or are fucked over in the meantime, though)... never seems to grapple with how letting the GOP take control means that the GOP will rig the political process. And that leftist candidates will not be immune to the effects of this just because they're more pure and selfless or something.
Quote:
If anything the schism in the Democratic Party between the progressive majority (72%) and corporatist centrist voters has widened and hardened over the past three years.
The polls do not support Rall's definition of "progressive" being 72% of Democratic voters. Self-described liberals (the polls do not tend to use "progressive" for ideological identity questions) are about half of the party. Problem is that even many of those voters support Biden, which probably means that Rall doesn't consider them to actually be progressive.
Quote:
Both sides are intransigent: Hillary’s voters accuse Bernie’s boycotters of handing the White House to Trump; Bernie’s supporters point to polls that consistently showed he, not Clinton, could have beat Trump.
Problem with the latter argument is that it should now lead you to view Biden as the superior choice given that he consistently polls better than Sanders against Trump.
Quote:
Progressives are still angry that the Democratic establishment cheated Bernie Sanders out of the nomination last time. News that they’re doing the same thing now has enraged them.
Citation abso-fucking-lutely needed. The cries of unfair and rigging are already starting despite changing the rules with input from Bernie Sanders people, the DNC staff being different, significantly decreasing the role of superdelegates, etc.? On what fucking basis?
Quote:
The party is ramming Biden the corporatist down the throats of Democratic primary voters using classic divide-and-conquer.
What is the basis for the claim that "the party" is doing this?

Given that Trump has had fairly negative favorability and job approval ratings since the first couple weeks of his presidency, isn't the more likely explanation that, you know, he appears to be vulnerable and is attracting a large field as a result? Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are ancient old fogeys and thus are incapable of clearing the field, and the establishment hasn't coalesced around Biden to the extent that they did with Clinton. Schumer reportedly has been attempting to recruit some of these 2020 candidates/potential candidates (like O'Rourke and Abrams) to run for Senate. How exactly are they supposed to force them to do that instead of running for president?

The problem is, of course, that for them to be able to coerce them into running for Senate instead of president... the Democratic Party apparatus would need to be stronger, not weaker, which is precisely the sort of thing people like Ted Rall would oppose!

Also substantially undermining this theory of things are that Biden has a commanding lead even in one-on-one matchups with other Democrats. I think it's far more likely that Bernie Sanders is the one with the low ceiling and who benefits the most from a divided field. Polling suggests that there are more anti-Sanders Democrats compared to other progressive candidates (like Warren). It just doesn't happen that a divided field is enough to get him the win while Biden is in the race, at least not at the moment.

But maybe even that's not right. The other thing is that this conceives of things as having a clear "progressive" lane and "centrist" (or whatever) lane. But the top second choice among Bernie Sanders supporters is... you guessed it! Joe Biden, not Elizabeth Warren as you'd expect if their choices were purely about progressive vs. centrist ideology. But despite assuming that Biden support is all centrists... Biden supporters' top second choice is Bernie Sanders! How Rall would explain these patterns, I don't know, but these things don't suggest he's basing his views on considering empirical evidence rather than just assuming the key to winning is to agree with his policy preferences.

What should be happening is that Rall should be seeing Biden's rosy position in the polls and reconsidering whether voting for Jill Stein was a good idea, whether the notion that Clinton's loss would make a Bernie Sanders nomination in 2020 a cakewalk or whatever supposed good he thought would come of it, was maybe just... wrong? Instead he's doubling down on it. Does he somehow think that the left-wing will end up more powerful after four more years of Trump? And if so... what has he seen that makes him think that? Particularly given how they will be gerrymandering maps and attacking voting rights, unions and the like the whole time.

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