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  #201  
Old 06-07-2019, 06:04 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition


Why not, this is the dumbest timeline after all.
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  #202  
Old 06-13-2019, 03:51 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

On Wednesday, Bernie Sanders gave a speech again defining what he means by democratic socialism, arguing that the gains of workers during the FDR administration is evidence that working class Americans can again come together in a movement to improve the lives of many and address health care and climate change and basic economic rights for all.
Link to a transcript.
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  #203  
Old 06-19-2019, 02:07 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

If Biden gets the nomination, a likely tactic will be to convince the Left to stay home...

Trump's 2020 strategy sounds familiar: Convince Democratic voters to stay home | Salon.com
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  #204  
Old 06-19-2019, 10:52 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Jesus Christ. Biden has been blabbering about the good ol' days when he and his fellow senators got things done. The key, of course, was being civil to white supremacist shitheads like James Eastland and Herman Talmadge. Eastland was so impressed by ol' Joe's civility that he never called Biden "boy."


Dudebro is as stupid and/or tone deaf as he is old, white and male.
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  #205  
Old 06-19-2019, 11:06 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

I'm skeptical that Biden's (or Sanders's more modest one, for that matter) electoral advantage would be as large as it appears, because general election polls this far out aren't very predictive (they're off by 10 pts on average, and sometimes by 20 pts or more). We don't have counterfactuals to compare results with different nominees, but we do know that name recognition can affect how polls go (Biden and Sanders have the highest name recognition, and so that might be responsible for much if not all of their advantage in these early polls). It is notable that the difference in these polls is usually that Biden does the best, whereas more voters are undecided for the other candidates - that is, Trump doesn't tend to get a notably higher percent against Harris, it's that fewer voters are willing to say they'll vote for Harris, probably because they know less about her. Trump might vary by a couple points, but he's usually about the same against the different Democrats.

BUT I do think that there's a decent chance that Trump would prefer to face Biden. It might be that he thinks Biden is less scary, and maybe he's not wrong. But it's also the case that he is a lazy, lazy person and Biden is probably the easiest to run the Trump 2016 playbook against. He has similar policy issues as Hillary Clinton (and usually worse, e.g. Clinton promoted the 1994 crime bill... Biden wrote it). He's old and extremely establishment. He neutralizes attacks on Trump's age and to a lesser extent Biden's old-fashioned/handsy behavior towards women neutralizes some of the attacks on Trump's misogyny/sexual assault.

The corruption argument will be harder against Biden than Clinton, but that's going to be the case for any of the Democratic candidates, because they haven't spent literally decades demonizing any of them the way they did the Clintons, so there's not much reason to prefer a different nominee in that regard.

But overall, Biden requires the least thinking and adapting from Trump, which probably factors into his preferences.
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  #206  
Old 06-21-2019, 12:51 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Biden's really setting a whip-smart agenda between praising segregationists and promising the billionaires that nothing will fundamentally change.

Joe Biden to rich donors: "Nothing would fundamentally change" if he's elected
Quote:
...No one’s standard of living will change, nothing would fundamentally change.”

Biden went on to say that the rich should not be blamed for income inequality, pleading to the donors, “I need you very badly.”

“I hope if I win this nomination, I won’t let you down. I promise you,” he added.
This kind of statement has of course spawned a number of pointed satirical Biden ads.



Fuck Joe Biden.
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  #207  
Old 06-21-2019, 05:13 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Trump is an egomaniac with the nuclear button. Pence is a member of an apocalypse cult where annihilation is a desired feature.

If the DNC for some goddam reason decides on Grandpa Establishment, I sure as hell would prefer him with the nuclear button.
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  #208  
Old 06-21-2019, 05:52 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kamilah Hauptmann View Post
Trump is an egomaniac with the nuclear button. Pence is a member of an apocalypse cult where annihilation is a desired feature.

If the DNC for some goddam reason decides on Grandpa Establishment, I sure as hell would prefer him with the nuclear button.
Yeah, between Trump and Biden, I'm voting for Biden, but I'd much rather have almost anyone else get the Democratic nomination. I'd also be worried that Biden is not an inspirational figure, and will not inspire turnout.

I'll be willing to wager Biden loses Michigan and Wisconsin by a wider margin than Clinton if he gets the nomination.
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  #209  
Old 06-21-2019, 05:54 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kamilah Hauptmann View Post
Trump is an egomaniac with the nuclear button. Pence is a member of an apocalypse cult where annihilation is a desired feature.

If the DNC for some goddam reason decides on Grandpa Establishment, I sure as hell would prefer him with the nuclear button.
Oh for sure, if the Dems fuck up royally and choose Biden, I'd be behind him 100% vs. Trump (or basically any GOP candidate).

But fuck Joe Biden. Or rather, Joe Biden - go fuck yourself.
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  #210  
Old 06-22-2019, 05:29 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

I would vote for a star-nosed mole over Trump. :mole:
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  #211  
Old 06-24-2019, 08:08 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Joe Biden wanted to criminalise raves, resurfaced footage shows: 'I would put the son of a gun in jail' | The Independent

Quote:
"If I were governor of my state or the mayor of my town, I would be passing new ordinances relating to stiff criminal penalties for anyone who holds a rave, the promoter, the guy who owns the building, I would put the son of a gun in jail, I would change the law,” he said.

He continued: "There's no doubt about where these raves are, in the middle of the desert. Arrest the promoter, find a rationale unrelated to drugs.”
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  #212  
Old 06-25-2019, 04:19 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

So I read through the whole thread and am happy to see no mention of Klobuchar. Living in the North Star state and having a former student on her staff, I see too much fawning shit from her dozen or so local fans.
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  #213  
Old 06-28-2019, 08:57 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Didn't see any of it, but word around the campfire has it that Biden got slapped around more than a little, notably by Sen. Harris. He also reportedly launched into an extended lecture on the distinction between de facto and de jure segregation, implying that one (though not necessarily both!) is uncool.
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  #214  
Old 06-28-2019, 11:36 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Harris talked about how she was part of just the second integrated class in her high school in Berkeley because of busing, and how the fact that Biden sided with segregationist senators on that issue was personal for her.

His response was to say he wasn't opposed to busing, just opposed to the Department of Education imposing it, and her city integrated because the government there made the decision. The echoes with segregationist "states' rights" arguments weren't terribly subtle, IMO. And I'm sure plenty of black voters could hear them (which was likely what Harris was aiming for).

I'd say the best performances among candidates seemed to be: Harris, Warren, Castro and Booker

Sanders and Buttigieg did pretty well but stood out less/did less well relative to expectations. Klobuchar and Gillibrand did ok but not what they needed to get a boost.

O'Rourke did meh and Biden did poorly. In O'Rourke's case I suppose that's relative to expectations - his 2018 campaign was propelled partly by oratory, and it may just be that this format does not play to his rhetorical strengths. He did fine, although the Spanish seemed gratuitous.

My hope is that this bursts Biden's bubble - I feel like if he falls into 2nd or especially an even lower place in the polls, that might precipitate a polling collapse. Which is perhaps the danger of predicating your entire pitch on electability - if you fall behind, you are ipso facto not electable, and it may be hard to climb back up.

The lower tier candidates mostly did little to change my views. Like, De Blasio wasn't awful, and I think he seems more hated than is warranted, and he had a couple good answers, but do I intend to support him? Nah. A number of the boring white guys were predictably boring. Inslee was disappointing given that he seems pretty good on policy. Gabbard seemed robotic on LGBT issues (where I do not trust her at all). Yang barely said anything.

Marianne Williamson sounded a bit like Cathy Anne from SNL, IMO:


While her woo-woo bullshit is amusing, I hope she's not in any future debates.
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  #215  
Old 06-29-2019, 12:25 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Williamson, whose claim to fame is being Oprah's spiritual advisor or some such nonsense, has gotten pretty much all she wanted out of her campaign, namely higher visibility as an anti-vax celebrity and woomeister. For her, it's all about separating Dunning-Kruger rubes from their disposable income.

Checked out a couple of clips from the Harris-Biden exchanges, and Jesus H. Horse-Fucking Christ! How the actual hell did Biden manage to look and sound UNPREPARED for those questions/comments after what's happened the past couple of weeks? That doesn't bode well at all for him.
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  #216  
Old 06-29-2019, 01:14 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Watched 80% of night one and 100% of night two. My own opinions-
Night one:
Julian Castro was the standout of the group, really hammering home about policy action and clear bright lines- hit his points well and naturally, especially immigration, didn't go overly canned. Called it abortion, and reproductive justice, not softer euphemistic replacements.
Warren also did very well, and spoke clearly, forcefully, and passionately: health care is a basic human right. Insurance companies are profiting off your misery. Here's how we solve this. Strong calls to mobilize; she's been campaigning very hard for the last two months and has some fire.
Booker did well, as did Inslee; Inslee did better than I expected to be honest and I was glad to see him tie it to accomplishments in Washington State, climate extinction, the Green New Deal; said abolish private insurance.
Gabbard, De Blasio did okay.
Delaney, Ryan, Klobuchar I think did somewhat poorly.
Beto O'Rourke did the worst in the debate IMO, just not really nailing his talking points or message and coming away weakened in exchanges with other candidates.
The questions were kind of dumb, the moderators were eh, I appreciated that this night there was an overall feeling that these candidates were reasonably multilingual and deeply aware of the social justice aspect of what the Democratic party aspires to be: women's rights, LGBTQIA rights, immigrant rights, health care.
The live mikes irritating, the cross-talk somewhat obnoxious (but positively light compared to night two).

Night two: tons of cross-talk. Very irritating and candidates overall relied a lot more on "Trump is bad; things are bad because of Trump," lines that didn't actually tell anyone what you would do differently or better or what's the deal; no shit water's wet get to the meat.
Kamela Harris really stood out above the rest of the group, especially in terms of giving Joe Biden the opportunity to directly point at the problematics of praising repeatedly the people who worked throughout their lives to uphold white supremacist, racist policies to the woman standing on the stage next to you; Biden then took that opportunity to bizarrely refuse to apologize, claim it a smear, counter; basically pound a couple holes in the floor of his candidacy boat and really do more to himself than Kamela could have ever hoped for. She also during the debate stated support for Medicare for All (in saying she'd end private insurance), then after said she had mis-heard the question and actually doesn't support ending private insurance.
Biden as the front-runner had the most to lose in the debate, and he delivered his messages well a few times, but his angry defense plays and refusal to apologize hurt him.
Bernie did okay; first half was weak, second half more in stride; final statement strong.
Mayor Pete did poorly in my mind but probably okay in the mind of the general public; maybe up a little considering the negative press over the South Bend white police officer shooting to death a black man with the body camera turned off.
Williamson was farcical;
Gillibrand was scrapping hard and hitting her points and does have the strongest anti-Trump voting record; but did not show great in the debate.
Hickenlooper beat the centrism drum and warned us socialism is very bad
Bennet had passion but rambled and did not resonate;
Swalwell tried some too-clever meme lines and sick burns; likely a break-even performance.
Yang claimed today his microphone was turned off much of the debate but he did not do well in explaining UBI, and I think is unlikely to get the bump he needs to continue.
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  #217  
Old 06-29-2019, 03:24 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

I've been saying for months that Kamala Harris is the most skilled politician in the field, and these debates did absolutely nothing to change my mind on that count. She filleted Biden with surgical precision. It was like watching Muhammad Ali box. The only more naturally skilled politician to emerge in the entire Democratic Party since Barack Obama unfortunately won't be eligible to run until 2028, if I'm doing the mathematics correctly (I've had a really long week so someone might want to double-check me on that); I still give about 50% odds on the latter being the first Latina (and first self-described socialist) president, but we'll see how that shakes out.

Most of these candidates did very little to change my opinions of them, and I feel rather vindicated that Warren and Harris emerged as the strongest candidates of their respective nights. I've been saying for months that they are easily the two most accomplished candidates, and at this point they seem to have lapped the rest of the field. No one else is coming close to Warren's depth and breadth of policy proposals, though Harris is still holding her own on this count. Meanwhile, Harris' political instincts seem to be almost flawless -- though thankfully, apart from an early hiccup with her ancestry, Warren seems to be doing mostly OK on this count as well.

Of the other candidates, I'd say Gillibrand, Castro, Buttigieg, Booker, and Sanders probably did enough to justify their continued placement in the debates, and they probably make up most of my second tier of candidates. (I might still place Gillibrand slightly above the others -- I originally ranked her alongside Warren and Harris, but she's had a really slow start to her presidential campaign. She's still pretty young; she'll probably be a stronger candidate in 2028.)

I still don't think Buttigieg has a significant enough résumé to justify electing him president, but compared to the current occupant*, he's still much more qualified and has a much more valid reason for running, and besides, it's pretty obvious he started out running for VP and was himself surprised that he's polling as well as he is. He's at least intelligent, articulate, and well-read.

Inslee also has a particularly strong résumé, and he has presented an impeccable case for running for the office - climate change is the most threatening issue of our times, and it's unforgivable that the media is largely ignoring his campaign. I mean, the fucking debates were in Miami, which is literally, not figuratively, sinking into the ocean, and climate change barely came up. A more massive indictment of the media is difficult to imagine. However, I don't know that he acquitted himself that well. He'll need to do more in the next debates if he wants to gain attention. He nonetheless rounds out my second tier, alongside the five mentioned above.

Honestly, I'd be much happier if they just whittled down the field to 10 candidates for the next debate - this whole thing of having 20 candidates over is a complete farce and probably degrades the dignity of the Democratic nomination. I was going to write "of the office", but I don't know how it could be degraded any further; however, the Democratic Party is supposed to take this sort of thing seriously. Williamson's presence in the debate over, say, an actual sitting governor is completely farcical, and I don't entirely blame Bullock for being a bit salty about his exclusion from the debates, though he really doesn't have a serious shot at the nomination at this point.

Of the other candidates, Klobuchar, Hickenlooper, and Bennet at least have résumés that justify their decision to run for the office, but I don't think either have presented a valid case for why they should be the Democratic nominee. Bennet does present a valid indictment of the entire Republican Party and Mitch McConnell in particular, which until these debates I felt was a point that often got under-emphasised, but he doesn't quite seem to possess the skills or vision to justify being the nominee. Hickenlooper is a 1990s candidate running for a 2020s presidency. Dude should be running for Senate. As for Klobuchar, I simply find it difficult to trust her on labour issues, though she has at least had a few good policy proposals, but all that aside, I don't think she really distinguished herself in the debate much.

Yang doesn't really have a substantial enough résumé to justify running for the presidency, but I still want to like his candidacy, because I support a universal basic income, and he's really the only candidate who's talking about the growing threat automation is going to pose for American jobs going forward. Unfortunately, he did a rather inept job presenting his case at the debate, which surprised me, because he's been quite articulate in his previous media appearances I've seen. Maybe debates are simply unsuited to his style, or perhaps he simply was poorly prepared and had a deer-in-the-headlights moment. I hope he does better in the future, because UBI deserves serious discussion, and if his future appearances go this poorly, that won't happen anytime soon.

Biden has the strongest traditional résumé, but he has been a paper tiger the previous times he ran for the office and doesn't seem to have learned much from his previous tries. I think he's uniquely poorly suited as a foil to Dump. I was actually fairly glad to see that he did this poorly in the debates, because it's better to have his weaknesses exposed now, while he's not inevitable.

By contrast, Warren and Harris seem unusually strong foils to Dump. Warren somehow manages to express tranquil fury more effectively than any other politician of my lifetime, and a polite but unapologetic academic seems a particularly effective foil to the wilfully ignorant pustule that currently occupies the White House. Harris' background as a prosecutor, meanwhile, seems particularly well suited for her to make the case against this administration*'s proud corruption and lawlessness.

Furthermore, I opine that running another white dude in this particular cultural moment is the absolute wrong choice. Women and minorities are furious in a way I don't think most white dudes are, particularly after all the recent abortion bans, and they have more at stake. I'm not discounting the misogyny and racism of the media as a potential factor, but to me that's an argument for calling out the media on those counts, not on being timid with our choice of nominee. Now is not the time to be timid. It is the time to loudly and proudly declare our opposition to this corrupt administration* and all its accomplices. I suspect most future elections are going to hinge on turning out the base as much as possible.

Which brings me back to Harris and Warren. The crowds Harris is drawing remind me of the crowds Barack Obama was starting to run in 2007. She has several Black sororities already lining up behind her candidacy, and I think they shouldn't be underestimated as an organising force in American politics. Warren seems to be inspiring passion of a different sort, but it seems no less significant in depth. I can't game out which of them is the stronger candidate, but they have lapped the rest of the field to me between their political skills, policy proposals, and grasp of the existential threat we currently face.

As much as I wanted to like Sanders' candidacy, he's whiffed several questions on women's healthcare, the court system, the filibuster, various other aspects of the existential threat the Republican Party poses to women and minorities in this country and to the very fabric of what loosely qualifies as our democracy. Some of the others have done somewhat better on some of these issues, but Harris and Warren have the strongest scorecards. It's possible someone else will convince me in the interim, but I somewhat doubt it.

I'm still open to convincing on the vice-president slot, though. Buttigieg and Castro seem justifiable choices. There are the symbolic aspects of potentially electing the first gay man or the first Hispanic to the vice presidency -- not as great as potentially electing the first woman president, but not nothing -- and they both generally seem to acquit themselves very well in media appearances. I must confess I also do want to see Buttigieg debate Mike Pence, at least a little bit.

Anyway, I'll probably throw another $20 to Warren and Harris this weekend. I may also set up smaller recurring donations to them, and also might throw a few bucks to a few of the other names I spoke positively of, too - I haven't decided.

Also, in case you haven't seen it, here's some early polling regarding the debates:




These numbers may shift, but they look very good for Harris and Warren and very bad for Biden. Interestingly:




ETA: forgot to mention moderators. Todd was a disgrace; Maddow was good as expected. Others seemed mostly OK.

Eric Levitz is a great read. Here's his Part 1 of the same set.
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Old 07-02-2019, 12:12 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

The CNN national poll looks similar and worse for Biden, but what was interesting is the email I received from Harris' campaign touting the results:

Quote:
Biden: 22%
Kamala: 17%
Warren: 15%
Bernie: 14%
One of the things that I did last election season is start referring to the candidates by last name exclusively. I'm curious why the campaign chose this particular mix of last&first names.
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  #219  
Old 07-02-2019, 01:07 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by specious_reasons View Post
I'm curious why the campaign chose this particular mix of last&first names.
That's bizarre. "Bernie" seems to be what the will of the crowds turned into his brand. Otherwise I've seen cases of last name: men, first name: women. Or in the medical arena: Doctor LastName (regardless of gender), all other staff Function(optional) FirstName (regardless of gender).
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  #220  
Old 07-02-2019, 01:31 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

I checked, and the campaign email is from "Kamala 2020". It looks like this is intentional.
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  #221  
Old 07-02-2019, 06:30 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

While sexism plays a role, I'm sure, but I think there are other influences... in some cases, the first name is more distinctive or "sounds" better. Buttigieg is hard to spell and pronounce for many, so he uses Pete on campaign materials.

In the case of Hillary Clinton, it obviously distinguished her from Bill to use her first name. For Bernie Sanders, I'm not as sure... a name that doesn't end in 's' is more convenient for possessive constructions, I suppose. Beto also uses his nickname. And Jeb Bush used Jeb a lot, although the media didn't use it as much.

Other candidates like John Hickenlooper/Delaney, Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Yang, Michael Bennet, etc. maybe think their first names are too common and boring.
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  #222  
Old 07-03-2019, 07:02 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Quinnipiac and YouGov both have Biden dropping significantly nationally...

Additionally, Qpiac, YouGov and CNN all found Sanders dropping into 4th place. As well as a poll of Iowa having him drop to 4th place with just 9%.

While Buttigieg or O'Rourke could make comebacks, or Booker or someone could surge, it looks like the clear top four for now are Biden, Harris, Warren and Sanders.
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  #223  
Old 07-06-2019, 07:52 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition


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  #224  
Old 07-06-2019, 09:01 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

They're hideous.
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  #225  
Old 07-08-2019, 10:47 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

First person to drop out: Eric Swalwell.

Eric Swalwell to end presidential bid after failing to gain traction - CNNPolitics

He was the "pass the torch" dude from the second debate night. Did not gain any traction.

While I'm wondering why he got into the race to start with, I applaud him for being decisive in the face of facts.
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