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  #626  
Old 02-17-2019, 09:25 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

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  #627  
Old 02-18-2019, 03:45 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

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Ironically, in an analysis of a localized measles outbreak in France, nearly 74% of those infected by the virus were not vaccinated. And of those infected, 29% of the parents were anti-vaccine.
Huh?

So, 26% of those infected by the virus were vaccinated? That's a hellish high vaccine failure rate.
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  #628  
Old 02-18-2019, 03:58 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Whether that's really bad depends on the vaccination rate.
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  #629  
Old 02-18-2019, 04:10 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Herd immunity - Wikipedia

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Herd immunity is vulnerable to the free rider problem. Individuals who lack immunity, primarily those who choose not to vaccinate, free ride off the herd immunity created by those who are immune. As the number of free riders in a population increases, outbreaks of preventable diseases become more common and more severe due to loss of herd immunity.
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  #630  
Old 02-18-2019, 05:46 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

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Originally Posted by erimir View Post
Whether that's really bad depends on the vaccination rate.
And on the size of the outbreak relative to the size of the total population. If the outbreak was, say, 500 cases in a city of 1,000,000 that was vaccinated at 80% we're only talking 130 out of 800,000 vaccinated people catching measles.
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  #631  
Old 02-18-2019, 11:53 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Quote:
Originally Posted by godfry n. glad View Post
Quote:
Ironically, in an analysis of a localized measles outbreak in France, nearly 74% of those infected by the virus were not vaccinated. And of those infected, 29% of the parents were anti-vaccine.
Huh?

So, 26% of those infected by the virus were vaccinated? That's a hellish high vaccine failure rate.

Those 26% are not the vaccine failure rate. Again, if you


(A) take the whole set of people who are vaccinated and look at the percentage of these who get sick afterwards, or


(B) take the set of people who get sick and look at the percentage of these who have been vaccinated before,


those are conceptually two completely different numbers.



Quote:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by godfry n. glad View Post
So in any random exposed population, how many vaccinated individuals would you expect to develop the infection?
Obviously, that depends on the percentage of vaccinated people in that population. Let's say 91% are vaccinated, the vaccine has a failure rate of 5% and 90% of unvaccinated people get the disease.

Then
P(sick | vaccinated) = 5%.
P(vaccinated | sick) = P(vaccinated and sick) / P(sick) = 0.91 * 0.05 / (0.91 * 0.05 + 0.09 * 0.9) = (approx.) 0.36 = 36%

If you assume that everyone is vaccinated and the vaccine has a non-zero failure rate, you would get that 100% of those infected were vaccinated.
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  #632  
Old 02-18-2019, 04:27 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

If 74% of those who were infected were unvaccinated, then there remains 26% of those who were infected....who were, what?
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  #633  
Old 02-18-2019, 05:56 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Quote:
Originally Posted by godfry n. glad View Post
If 74% of those who were infected were unvaccinated, then there remains 26% of those who were infected....who were, what?

What is your point godfry?

No one is denying that 26% of the people infected were vaccinated.

Are you not aware that the vaccination isn't 100% effective? Have you read the replies at all?

If 100% of people were vaccinated then - OMG ALL 100%!?!??!? - of the infected would have been vaccinated. So fucking what?

What is your point?
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  #634  
Old 02-18-2019, 06:55 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Quote:
Originally Posted by godfry n. glad View Post
Quote:
Ironically, in an analysis of a localized measles outbreak in France, nearly 74% of those infected by the virus were not vaccinated. And of those infected, 29% of the parents were anti-vaccine.
Huh?

So, 26% of those infected by the virus were vaccinated? That's a hellish high vaccine failure rate.
The fraction of pregnant people that are women is quite different to the fraction of women that are pregnant. You are making this classic reasoning error.
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  #635  
Old 02-18-2019, 09:33 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Quote:
Originally Posted by erimir View Post
Whether that's really bad depends on the vaccination rate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by But View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by godfry n. glad View Post
So in any random exposed population, how many vaccinated individuals would you expect to develop the infection?
Obviously, that depends on the percentage of vaccinated people in that population. Let's say 91% are vaccinated, the vaccine has a failure rate of 5% and 90% of unvaccinated people get the disease.

Then
P(sick | vaccinated) = 5%.
P(vaccinated | sick) = P(vaccinated and sick) / P(sick) = 0.91 * 0.05 / (0.91 * 0.05 + 0.09 * 0.9) = (approx.) 0.36 = 36%

If you assume that everyone is vaccinated and the vaccine has a non-zero failure rate, you would get that 100% of those infected were vaccinated.
I didn't feel like doing the math or really explaining what I meant, but But apparently had already explained it.

This is similar to the difference between sensitivity and specificity and similar measures in terms of medical tests.

-Given a person who has the condition, the likelihood the test will return a positive (sensitivity)
-Given a person who does not have the condition, the likelihood the test will return a negative (specificity)
-Given a person who has tested positive, the likelihood the person indeed has the condition (positive predictive value)
-Given a person who has tested negative, the likelihood the person indeed does not have the condition (negative predictive value)

These are very different numbers. Sensitivity and specificity are not affected by the condition's prevalence in the population, while predictive values are. If you test a random person in the US for HIV, and you get a positive, the person still probably does not have HIV. If you test a random person in Botswana, that would not be the case, because the infection rate is much higher there.

Vaccines obviously are not the same as diagnostic tests, but the mathematical relationships are similar. The failure rate is a measure solely related to the vaccine, but the percentage of infected who are vaccinated is strongly affected by the vaccination rate in the population.

To give the sort of opposite of slimshady's point - suppose that only a hundred people in France were vaccinated, and all of them caught measles, while a million people overall were infected. That would mean 99.99% of the infected were unvaccinated and 0.01% were vaccinated. Would you conclude from that that the vaccine is 99.99% effective? That would clearly be ludicrous.
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