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  #426  
Old 02-22-2019, 10:19 PM
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Default Re: Voter fraud vs. voter *registration* fraud

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephen Maturin View Post
Holy fucking fuckballs! The North Carolina Board of Elections ordered a full do-over in that 9th Congressional District race. The Republican might not even run again for health reasons, where "health" = bathed in and reeking of fraud.
I understand that there probably are legal reasons why the election has to be done over, but I don't understand why it cannot simply be a forfeit. Cheaters shouldn't get do-overs.
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  #427  
Old 02-22-2019, 10:30 PM
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Default Re: Voter fraud vs. voter *registration* fraud

If they could prove the candidate was complicit, ideally, they'd be too much in jail to get a do-over, but there's always enough plausible deniability that's not really an option.

Calling a do-over is better than the thing where they throw a low-level schmuck or two under the bus and say, "Oh, well," though.
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  #428  
Old 02-23-2019, 09:03 PM
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Default Re: Voter fraud vs. voter *registration* fraud

It’s also possible that the knowledge that the R candidate is a cheating cheater from Cheatsylvania will bias voters against him.

Or for him. I mean, it is the South.
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  #429  
Old 02-23-2019, 09:48 PM
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Default Re: Voter fraud vs. voter *registration* fraud

On the other hand, the Democrat probably would've won without the cheating - it's not assured, but there were most likely about 1,500 missing absentee ballots and they also tampered with some number of submitted ballots, so that's easily enough to account for Harris's 900-ish vote margin.

I grew up in a county adjacent to NC-9, so I'm familiar with some of the areas there. I've never been to Bladen County (there's not even a highway that goes through it on the way to the beach or something), but I've been to Robeson County, the other county that Harris's election fraud activities occurred.

But anyway, the dynamics of this do-over election are likely to be kind of weird. McCready is running again and I'd probably give a slight edge to him for a few reasons:

1. It was already very close in 2018, so a do-over ought to imply it's a tossup at least
2. Special elections favored Democrats by more in 2017-2018 than their 2018 general election results, and this is basically a special election
3. McCready was a good candidate, as seen by the close margin and probable deserved victory in 2018
4. GOP cheating taint is going to damage the candidate, even if their new nominee is not Harris, as it most likely will not be (Harris claims he had two strokes last month, which might've been just an excuse for his "memory problems" but regardless of his real health situation, it would be strange for him to try to run again if that's his claim)
5. With a large portion of the district being based in the Charlotte suburbs, the district might be trending towards the Democrats under Trump, since college-educated white voters do not like Trump.

And there's another difference from the pre-2019 situation that's relevant:

6. Democrats have a 5-1 majority and will soon have a 6-1 Democratic majority on the NC Supreme Court, and the relevance of this is that there are anti-gerrymandering cases going through the NC courts on the basis of the NC Constitution's "free and fair elections" guarantee, and so it is highly likely that the NC legislative and congressional maps will be redrawn by 2020. I would expect that some voter suppression laws will be challenged as well.

This do-over election will take months, so if a Republican wins, they will only hold the seat for a year before being forced to compete on new terrain, possibly much less favorable terrain or a district in which they're competing with another incumbent Republican member of Congress depending on how the districts are redrawn. I believe McCready lives in the Charlotte area, and it's likely another Democratic district can be drawn there, so he will likely be well-situated to run in 2020 if he wins. But a Republican might put a lot of effort into winning a seat only to find that they have no hope of winning reelection.

What this means for the likelihood that the Democrat/McCready will win is that the do-over election might not attract strong Republican candidates/the GOP might not prioritize recruitment much. If this were 2015, the seat would be an assured GOP win and the primary would attract a bunch of ambitious Republicans who would view winning the primary as tantamount to winning the election. But instead the general election looks like a slog and the prize is far less attractive.

Countering those points, though, I would say this:

1. Democratic special election margins might recede a bit now that Democrats control the House. Special elections are not the only way to show your "resistance" anymore and while I don't expect Democrats to be complacent for 2020, special elections might not have such a ridiculous enthusiasm gap anymore.
2. While the special election nomination is much less attractive for Republicans than the NC-9 nomination would've been in previous years, it's not concurrent with most other elections (it might be concurrent with some 2019 local elections) so members of the state legislature, for example, do not need to give up their seats to run. So the downside is just the campaign slog/the possibility of being a "loser" for future runs.
3. The district is simply a strongly Republican one, leaning 14 pts towards the GOP. So McCready did very well in the first place, and repeating that isn't guaranteed, particularly since Harris had some controversial positions/statements (basically saying women belonged in the home, for example) that made him a weaker candidate. The district has some areas that might be trending towards Democrats, but it's still not enough to simply do well, you need a very strong performance to win as a Democrat.

Overall, I'd say it's a tossup, but slightly favoring the Democrat.
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  #430  
Old 02-27-2019, 07:53 PM
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Default Re: Voter fraud vs. voter *registration* fraud

I'm sure it will come as no surprise to anyone that the election fraud of Republican Mark Harris was entirely the fault of Democrats.
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  #431  
Old 08-29-2019, 05:37 PM
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Default Re: Voter fraud vs. voter *registration* fraud

Republicans steal elections, exhibit the infinity.

Allegations of missing votes in Georgia turned over to Congress via How to Steal an Election - Lawyers, Guns & Money

Quote:
To find a clue about what might have gone wrong with Georgia’s election last fall, look no further than voting machine No. 3 at the Winterville Train Depot outside Athens.

On machine No. 3, Republicans won every race. On each of the other six machines in that precinct, Democrats won every race.

The odds of an anomaly that large are less than 1 in 1 million, according to a statistician’s analysis in court documents. The strange results would disappear if votes for Democratic and Republican candidates were flipped on machine No. 3.

It just so happens that this occurred in Republican Brian Kemp’s home precinct, where he initially had a problem voting when his yellow voter access card didn’t work because a poll worker forgot to activate it. At the time, Kemp was secretary of state — Georgia’s top election official — and running for governor in a tight contest with Democrat Stacey Abrams.

The suspicious results in Winterville are evidence in the ongoing mystery of whether errors with voting machines contributed to a stark drop-off in votes recorded in the race for Georgia lieutenant governor between Republican Geoff Duncan, who ended up winning, and Democrat Sarah Riggs Amico.
As stated in the article, there is literally less than a one in a million chance that this occurred by coincidence. The Georgia election was rigged. It’s not as though IT professionals have been warning about this possibility for twenty fucking years or something.

(This story seems specifically designed to infuriate me since it sits at the nexus of my two areas of academic concentration, and it’s something I personally have been warning about for over a decade.)
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