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  #51  
Old 11-07-2014, 06:39 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

Gerrymandering: just because you don't know what Simpson's Paradox is, doesn't mean you can't master its practical ramifications.
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  #52  
Old 11-08-2014, 11:47 AM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

I don't know what the practical ramifications of Simpson's Paradox are, in the context of gerrymandering.

All I can find on the web is one useless page: practical ramifications simpson's paradox +gerrymandering - Google Search
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  #53  
Old 11-16-2014, 10:34 AM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeP View Post
I don't know what the practical ramifications of Simpson's Paradox are, in the context of gerrymandering.

All I can find on the web is one useless page: practical ramifications simpson's paradox +gerrymandering - Google Search
I still don't know what the practical ramifications of Simpson's Paradox are, in the context of gerrymandering. Somebody needs to explain.
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  #54  
Old 11-16-2014, 04:58 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

Oh, damn! Sorry. Missed replying to this earlier. Maybe it doesn't make sense, is the first thing to say. I just had a thought to the effect that, like Simpson's Paradox, gerrymandering is about partitioning the cohort into groups of different sizes according to the distribution of properties in those groups, in order to reverse the population trend at the level of group aggregations. So gerrymandering, I thought, is an induced form of an aggregation paradox. But that thought might be defective! I didn't think it through very carefully, and still haven't.
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  #55  
Old 11-16-2014, 05:37 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

I'm not sure it's a perfect fit, but I like the notion. I think it's just an inverse of the usual application of the paradox. Normally the paradox is about changes to overall trends when you combine data sets, but you could just as easily break up a data set with a trend one way, say to Party A, so that each component has the opposite trend, to Party B, which is what gerrymandering is usually about.
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  #56  
Old 11-16-2014, 05:51 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

Did you look at this page?

the UK illusion: Simpsons Paradox
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  #57  
Old 11-17-2014, 10:32 AM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

I found that page yesterday and was going to post a link to it today. But since it does a considerably better job of explaining it than Clutch managed, I won't because it would just show him up.
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Old 11-17-2014, 01:15 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

Quote:
Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Did you look at this page? the UK illusion: Simpsons Paradox
But Cep, that page is a mess of misunderstanding from beginning—Simpsons Paradox is more than just "where you can divide a set of results into chunks, assess each chunk, and then combine the results of each assessment to draw a conclusion about the whole which disagrees with a direct assessment of the whole"—to end—Simpsons Paradox isn't "how the Labour party managed to 'win' the [2005] election with 55% of the power (i.e., majority control) with only 35% of the vote"
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Originally Posted by JoeP View Post
I found that page yesterday and was going to post a link to it today. But since it does a considerably better job of explaining it than Clutch managed, I won't because it would just show him up.
LOL No, it just makes the same mistake that Clutch did, only with more apparent deliberation and, hence, less excuse.

The essential difference between a gerrymandered victory and a Simpson's Paradox victory is that, in a gerrymandered victory some of the chunks (consituencies) must be won by the side which wins the election, whereas for an election victory to qualify as an instance of Simpson's Paradox, the winner would have to lose in all the constituencies.
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  #59  
Old 11-17-2014, 06:24 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

Or, to put it another way, Simpson's paradox involves a phenomenon similar to the end result of gerrymandering, but it isn't exactly the same.

The problem seems to be that in voting, the outcomes must be divided up between the parties being compared. So their vote shares are not independent - as one party does better, necessarily another party must do worse. And the number of trials (or voters) in each condition (or district) must be the same for all parties. But this is precisely what causes the confusion in the Simpson's paradox. Notice that if each condition was tried an equal number of times, the example with the kidney stones would no longer result in a misleading conclusion.

So then, notice that the Mike Tyson vs. Charlie Chaplin examples involve them fighting other people. If they were to fight each other directly, the Simpsons paradox would not be possible.

Suppose we had two arenas, and thus those were the conditions. So they don't perform identically in the two arenas. Nonetheless, it isn't possible for them to have a record such that Chaplin has a better overall record while being worse in each individual arena. Which is what happened with the example with Bruce Lee and the little girl.

Mike vs. Charlie in arena 1: A > B
Mike vs. Charlie in arena 2: X > Y
Mike overall = A+X
and Charlie overall = B+Y
But necessarily, A+X > B+Y

So Mike will always have the better overall record if his record is better in both arenas. However, his overall record could understate how much better he is if they simply had more fights in the arena that was more favorable to Chaplin.

Similarly, with gerrymandering alone, it isn't possible to deny the majority party any seats. However, if seats do not need to be the same size, it is theoretically possible to make it so that even an overwhelming majority party only gets one seat. This is then gerrymandering combined with malapportionment. But the theoretical limit of gerrymandering in districts of approximately equal size is around twice the minority party's share (meaning in practice a minority party in a two party system must be able to get well over 25% of the overall vote in order to gerrymander their way to a majority). In practice, voters are not neatly distributed and houses and apartment buildings often contain voters from multiple parties, making it impossible to make 100% packed districts. Also since voters change their mind between elections (and the voting population changes between elections due to new young voters, deaths and movements), minority party gerrymanderers will tend to want their districts to be a bit safer than 50.1% since an overall swing against their party could result in them gerrymandering their way to 0 seats.
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  #60  
Old 11-17-2014, 06:51 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

Here's my post from a few years ago about Simpson's paradox. There's a real-world example there about the passage of the Civil Rights Act - though it does not involve gerrymandering.
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  #61  
Old 11-17-2014, 07:22 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

Quote:
Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Here's my post from a few years ago about Simpson's paradox. There's a real-world example there about the passage of the Civil Rights Act - though it does not involve gerrymandering.
I'm aware of that CRA bit. The Democrats voted more against the CRA overall, but if you break it down by Southern and non-Southern, the Democrats were more in favor of the CRA.

Internet Republicans love to say that they were the true party of civil rights and the Democrats were/are the real racist party.

Their argument basically hinges on not understanding the effect of Jim Crow and regional differences on the history of the parties. And combining that with condescendingly thinking that black people are unable to understand who's racist.

Staunchly racist Southern Democrats being the same party as largely anti-racist Northern Democrats while Northern Republicans were moderately anti-racist (and Southern Republicans being almost non-existent, but just as, if not more, racist than Southern Democrats) makes for a much more complicated situation. Add to that the VRA's enfranchisement of black Southern voters and many poor white Southern voters who subsequently aligned themselves with the national Democratic Party thus radically changing the composition of the Southern Democratic Party and eventually the defection of wealthy/racist Southern whites to the Republican Party and well, you don't really have a good narrative for the GOP as the party blacks "ought" to vote for anymore.

The good thing is that most people can see through this argument and will not be convinced that the Republicans are truly the party that looks out for black interests. The bad thing is that there are probably at least some people (mostly whites, but perhaps some non-whites) who would choose not to vote for Republicans if there was no plausible argument for them being the true anti-racist party, and the explanation of the historical Southern Democratic Party and the post-VRA changes is much more complicated than just pointing to Jim Crow and the overall CRA vote totals, etc.

But mostly I see it as the rationalizations of racists who want to see themselves as not racist. And even if you took away their bogus historical argument, they would simply change their focus to how the GOP is not racist now instead of pointing to how the Democratic Party used to include a large and explicitly racist faction for a large part of its history.
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  #62  
Old 03-24-2016, 08:44 AM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

I don't feel like making a whole post about it and getting links and stuff, but I just wanted to preempt a non-North Carolinian posting about the bill to legalize discrimination in North Carolina.

I hope that McCrory fucker gets his ass whooped in November. Here's hoping Trump has some big coattails of failure.
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  #63  
Old 03-24-2016, 02:45 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

I have to try and not look at the Charlotte Observer headlines every morning when I get coffee as I don't like it quite THAT bitter.
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  #64  
Old 03-30-2016, 09:54 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

I got an email from Replacements, Ltd. today. I was hoping they'd found more serving pieces from the china pattern I've had registered with them for 15 years, but it was even better than that, which is saying something because the serving dishes are hella hard to come by.

A Message from Our Founder and CEOToday, I take the unusual step of sending you a personal message. Perhaps you, like millions of others, have heard that North Carolina's recent passage of House Bill 2 - which has been called the worst anti-LGBT bill in the United States - has provoked an outpouring of public concern. Among other things, HB2 bars cities, towns, and counties from prohibiting discrimination of any kind and makes clear that LGBT people may legally be singled out for unfair treatment in the workplace, housing, and public accommodations.

What does this have to do with you? The reaction to North Carolina's passage of HB2 last Wednesday has been swift and strongly in opposition. Calls for boycotts of our state have been answered by individuals and businesses who will not attend the $5.38 billion, 600,000 visitor High Point furniture market this April and, more generally, by the State of New York, the City of Seattle, and others. Amidst this deep concern, which I share, I want to make one thing clear: Replacements, Ltd. affirms the dignity and beauty of each and every person. You will always be warmly welcomed at Replacements, Ltd.

You may know that I'm gay. One year ago, I married Dale Frederiksen, with whom I've shared my life for 27 years. Together, we have raised twin sons we adopted as infants in Vietnam. In July, our boys will be 17. Last summer, we added another teenager, a Nigerian scholar-athlete, to our household. Growing up on a small tobacco farm in rural North Carolina during the 1950s and 1960s and during my 3 years of active duty service in the United States Army, I never dreamt I could be openly gay and successful, much less that I could have a family of my own. My experience of feeling like an outcast opened my eyes and my heart to all who have been judged for being different. While acceptance of people like me and families like mine has grown - and I am grateful - transgender people today face obstacles similar to those I saw first-hand generations ago. At Replacements, Ltd., we are very fortunate to employ a number of extraordinarily talented people who are transgender. These people are like family to me. And having known and worked with many transgender friends over the years, I see in each a reflection of myself. The thought of being afraid to share space with any one of those good people is hard for me to understand, based on my personal experiences. If you had the opportunity to meet any one of them, I bet you'd feel the same way.

Again, as long-standing advocates for fair treatment, diversity, and inclusion, North Carolina-based Replacements, Ltd. will welcome you with open arms.

Bob Page

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REPLACEMENTS, LTD.

Last edited by livius drusus; 03-30-2016 at 11:20 PM. Reason: Ltd. not Inc.
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  #65  
Old 03-30-2016, 10:30 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

I claim to know those guys that run Replacements Ltd. because I know somebody who is friends with them, and because I like so much about them and would like to know them. They have an amazing business (and an amazing business idea!) and do a ton of good in Burlington. They employ a lot of people, including a lot of LGBT people, in a place that otherwise has limited opportunities. It creates the kind of employment opportunities for people that do not normally come about through exclusionary practices that are blessed by the state government.

At this particular moment, North Carolina does not deserve them, but I am glad that they are here.
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  #66  
Old 03-30-2016, 10:35 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

That's awesome! Replacements, LTD is in Greensboro where I used to live, and I've been by there many times. What he's saying about the furniture market will be devastating to a region that's already struggling.

Who would have thought that one of the leading experts in porcelain china was gay? :rolleyes:
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  #67  
Old 03-30-2016, 11:07 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

I work for the state and got an OFFICIAL email to all the people in our rather large Department that explained how none of this was in any way discriminatory and there would be absolutely NO economic backlash, so we're probably all just over thinking this.
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  #68  
Old 03-30-2016, 11:46 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

When SF's corrupt mayor bans city travel to NC, you know something's gone wrong.

If it impacts the state they can always sell Dildos or close schools.
Just ask Kansas how.
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Old 03-31-2016, 12:20 AM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ari View Post
When SF's corrupt mayor bans city travel to NC, you know something's gone wrong.

If it impacts the state they can always sell Dildos or close schools.
Just ask Kansas how.
Way ahead of you! Adam & Eve is based here, and also has a pretty kick-ass backstory (started out in the 70s providing contraceptives by mail order, and after several bullshit obscenity charges, sued DOJ for abuse of power). That is another company that I am kind of proud to live in the area of.

Also we have some schools, but not so much teachers, because sometimes teachers join unions, which is literally the worst thing imaginable. So the plan is (once all the teachers have left the state because tenure has been abolished and new teachers aren't scrambling for that sweet $33k salary) to hand public education and moneys over to the churches and private schools, where everyone can discriminate however their sky god tells them, because that is what Jesus always intended anyway.
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Old 03-31-2016, 02:14 AM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

Ha! I'm not sure how I didn't know that, some friends promote Adam & Eve on blogs and at events.

I used to be equally proud of Good Vibes, which started as a small woman run store in the bay area, but they have since been bought by large-sex, although it's still amusing to give a presentation against a wall of dildos.
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  #71  
Old 03-31-2016, 05:38 AM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

Quote:
Originally Posted by livius drusus View Post
A Message from Our Founder and CEOAmidst this deep concern, which I share, I want to make one thing clear: Replacements, Ltd. affirms the dignity and beauty of each and every person. You will always be warmly welcomed at Replacements, Ltd.

Bob Page

Founder & CEO
REPLACEMENTS, LTD.
Wrong thrad.

But for serus: This is as far as I got before I wanted to comment. This is a wonderful letter and the world should know about it. Please respond on behalf of the :ff: that we do heartily endorse their services and products and the people therein. And then the letter goes on to be more endearing and moving.
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  #72  
Old 03-31-2016, 06:02 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

Quote:
Originally Posted by livius drusus View Post
I got an email from Replacements, Ltd. today. I was hoping they'd found more serving pieces from the china pattern I've had registered with them for 15 years, but it was even better than that, which is saying something because the serving dishes are hella hard to come by.

A Message from Our Founder and CEOToday, I take the unusual step of sending you a personal message. Perhaps you, like millions of others, have heard that North Carolina's recent passage of House Bill 2 - which has been called the worst anti-LGBT bill in the United States - has provoked an outpouring of public concern. Among other things, HB2 bars cities, towns, and counties from prohibiting discrimination of any kind and makes clear that LGBT people may legally be singled out for unfair treatment in the workplace, housing, and public accommodations.

What does this have to do with you? The reaction to North Carolina's passage of HB2 last Wednesday has been swift and strongly in opposition. Calls for boycotts of our state have been answered by individuals and businesses who will not attend the $5.38 billion, 600,000 visitor High Point furniture market this April and, more generally, by the State of New York, the City of Seattle, and others. Amidst this deep concern, which I share, I want to make one thing clear: Replacements, Ltd. affirms the dignity and beauty of each and every person. You will always be warmly welcomed at Replacements, Ltd.

You may know that I'm gay. One year ago, I married Dale Frederiksen, with whom I've shared my life for 27 years. Together, we have raised twin sons we adopted as infants in Vietnam. In July, our boys will be 17. Last summer, we added another teenager, a Nigerian scholar-athlete, to our household. Growing up on a small tobacco farm in rural North Carolina during the 1950s and 1960s and during my 3 years of active duty service in the United States Army, I never dreamt I could be openly gay and successful, much less that I could have a family of my own. My experience of feeling like an outcast opened my eyes and my heart to all who have been judged for being different. While acceptance of people like me and families like mine has grown - and I am grateful - transgender people today face obstacles similar to those I saw first-hand generations ago. At Replacements, Ltd., we are very fortunate to employ a number of extraordinarily talented people who are transgender. These people are like family to me. And having known and worked with many transgender friends over the years, I see in each a reflection of myself. The thought of being afraid to share space with any one of those good people is hard for me to understand, based on my personal experiences. If you had the opportunity to meet any one of them, I bet you'd feel the same way.

Again, as long-standing advocates for fair treatment, diversity, and inclusion, North Carolina-based Replacements, Ltd. will welcome you with open arms.

Bob Page

Founder & CEO
REPLACEMENTS, LTD.
But nothing about the dishes! :(
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Old 03-31-2016, 06:51 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

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Originally Posted by BrotherMan View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by livius drusus View Post
A Message from Our Founder and CEOAmidst this deep concern, which I share, I want to make one thing clear: Replacements, Ltd. affirms the dignity and beauty of each and every person. You will always be warmly welcomed at Replacements, Ltd.

Bob Page

Founder & CEO
REPLACEMENTS, LTD.
Wrong thrad.
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Old 04-02-2016, 05:47 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

Free shipping for purchases of $59 and up this weekend at Replacements! That's a killer deal. I'd pay double what they usually charge just out of respeck for their genius packaging and delivery speed. Besides, you can never have too many 16" oval serving platters, amirite?
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Old 12-20-2016, 08:14 PM
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Default Re: North Carolina, you got called the fuck out!

I'm still not capable of a full summary of the naked power grab in NC, but Seth does a pretty good job, so here.


This is ridiculously alarming. I don't think it's much of an exaggeration to say this is the kind of thing that leads to fascism.
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