Winnie the Flu - Page 53

ceptimus · #**1301** 06-05-2020, 12:45 PM

Fourth week running with no new doubling targets reached. I won't bother to post the tables this time as they're already on this page - just add seven days to the parenthesized figures on the last row of each table. It turned out that this post started a new page, so here are the modified tables.

USA COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
15+	15	03-06	-
30+	30	03-10	4
60+	60	03-15	5
120+	124	03-18	3
240+	256	03-20	2
500+	508	03-23	3
1000+	1195	03-26	3
2000+	2221	03-28	2
4000+	4053	03-31	3
8000+	8451	04-04	4
16K+	16691	04-09	5
32K+	32443	04-15	6
64K+	65753	05-01	16
128K+	?	?	(34+)

Italy COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
3+	3	02-23	-
6+	7	02-24	1
12+	12	02-26	2
24+	29	02-29	3
48+	52	03-02	2
100+	107	03-04	2
200+	233	03-07	3
400+	463	03-09	2
800+	827	03-11	2
1600+	1809	03-15	4
3200+	3405	03-19	4
6400+	6820	03-24	5
12K8+	13155	04-01	8
25K+	25085	04-22	21
50K+	?	?	(43+)

UK COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
3+	3	03-08	-
6+	6	03-10	2
12+	21	03-14	4
24+	35	03-15	1
48+	53	03-16	1
96+	104	03-18	2
200+	233	03-21	3
400+	422	03-24	3
800+	1019	03-28	4
1600+	1789	03-31	3
3200+	3605	04-03	3
6400+	7097	04-08	5
12K8+	12868	04-15	7
25K+	25302	04-28	13
50K+	?	?	(37+)

France COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
3+	3	03-02	-
6+	7	03-05	3
12+	16	03-07	2
24+	30	03-09	2
48+	48	03-11	2
100+	127	03-15	4
200+	264	03-18	3
400+	450	03-20	2
800+	860	03-23	3
1600+	1696	03-26	3
3200+	3523	03-31	5
6400+	6507	04-03	3
12K8+	13197	04-10	7
25K+	25201	05-04	24
50K+	?	?	(31+)

Spain COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
2+	2	03-04	-
4+	8	03-06	2
8+	8	03-06	0
16+	17	03-08	2
32+	36	03-10	2
64+	84	03-12	2
128+	133	03-13	1
256+	289	03-15	2
500+	533	03-17	2
1000+	1002	03-20	3
2000+	2206	03-23	3
4000+	4365	03-26	3
8000+	8464	03-31	5
16K+	16081	04-10	10
32K+	?	?	(55+)

Germany COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
3+	3	03-12	-
6+	8	03-13	1
12+	13	03-16	3
24+	24	03-17	1
48+	48	03-20	3
100+	114	03-23	3
200+	206	03-25	2
400+	433	03-28	3
800+	931	04-01	4
1600+	1810	04-06	5
3200+	3495	04-14	8
6400+	6467	04-29	15
12K8+	?	?	(36+)

Iran COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
3+	3	02-21	-
6+	6	02-22	1
12+	12	02-24	2
24+	26	02-27	3
48+	54	03-01	3
100+	108	03-05	4
200+	237	03-09	4
400+	429	03-12	3
800+	853	03-16	4
1600+	1685	03-22	6
3200+	3294	04-03	12
6400+	6418	05-06	33
12K8+	?	?	(29+)

The Netherlands COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
3+	3	03-08	-
6+	10	03-13	5
12+	12	03-14	1
24+	24	03-16	2
48+	58	03-18	2
100+	106	03-20	2
200+	213	03-23	3
400+	434	03-26	3
800+	864	03-30	4
1600+	1651	04-04	5
3200+	3315	04-16	12
6400+	?	?	(49+)

Luxembourg COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
1+	1	03-14	-
2+	2	03-18	4
4+	4	03-19	1
8+	8	03-21	2
16+	18	03-28	7
32+	36	04-05	8
64+	66	04-12	7
128+	?	?	(53+)

Kamilah Hauptmann · #**1302** 06-06-2020, 08:14 AM

Write up on BC’s top doctor.

Kamilah Hauptmann · #**1303** 06-07-2020, 07:34 AM

slimshady2357 · #**1304** 06-07-2020, 03:35 PM

computer, enhance pic.twitter.com/jkExiRtkRw
— Born Miserable (@bornmiserable) March 12, 2020

Jerome · #**1305** 06-09-2020, 10:25 PM

Where are all the new deaths from all these people not social distancing whilst protesting??

Btw, a CDC scientist said this AM that asymptomatic carriers have a very rare chance of spreading the virus. This puts a lie to the whole wear a mask social distancing game...by this afternoon she had to say she didn't mean it because she was talking about people that never get symptoms, or some such mealymouthed nonsense.

lol @ anyone still believing this

Ari · #**1306** 06-09-2020, 10:31 PM

Suddenly, suddenly the CDC is a valid source, especially tweet length CDC.

ChuckF · #**1307** 06-09-2020, 11:16 PM

Well, the pigs are working pretty hard to murder the ones that Trump hasn't murdered yet.

SR71 · #**1308** 06-10-2020, 01:01 PM

We have been out the last two weekends, operating a little outdoor ice cream trailer. We aren't hiring any kidlettes because the business doesn't come close to making enough to pay for insurance, so we couldn't help them if they got sick.

Cases in the county are down to about 50 - 25/day. Masks are required outdoors in the market area. The first weekend most people wore them in the morning but it got up to 95F in the afternoon and then hardly anyone wore them. Some people clearly are making a political statement with their masklessness, others are maybe nonchalant. The following weekend was better, most people were wearing them. The few that didn't pissed me off, breathing their dumb virus breath all over us. It's weird though, as a vender, you don't want to make a scene, or complain to management, even though people are doing shit to you that's potentially lethal. Stupid, inconsiderate fuckers.

JoeP · #**1309** 06-10-2020, 04:13 PM

STUPID
INCONSIDERATE
FUCKERS
2020

viscousmemories · #**1310** 06-10-2020, 05:58 PM

Maybe put that on a red hat?

Jerome · #**1311** 06-10-2020, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SR71

We have been out the last two weekends, operating a little outdoor ice cream trailer. We aren't hiring any kidlettes because the business doesn't come close to making enough to pay for insurance, so we couldn't help them if they got sick.

Cases in the county are down to about 50 - 25/day. Masks are required outdoors in the market area. The first weekend most people wore them in the morning but it got up to 95F in the afternoon and then hardly anyone wore them. Some people clearly are making a political statement with their masklessness, others are maybe nonchalant. The following weekend was better, most people were wearing them. The few that didn't pissed me off, breathing their dumb virus breath all over us. It's weird though, as a vender, you don't want to make a scene, or complain to management, even though people are doing shit to you that's potentially lethal. Stupid, inconsiderate fuckers.

You should get a new job if you think being in public is lethal.

Such an attitude working for me will get you on toilet duty until you quit.\\

I have always liked you, we go way back, but really, if this is how you have allowed the news propaganda to make you feel, you need to reevaluate the source.

Obviously you are trying to make some money serving others, but if your service to others is to be offended with them... holy fuck dude. I am sorry.

JoeP · #**1312** 06-11-2020, 08:36 PM

Yeast of our worries: Marmite supplies hit by Covid-19 beer brewing slowdown | World news | The Guardian

Miisa · #**1313** 06-12-2020, 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beyelzu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miisa

Quote:

Originally Posted by beyelzu

Miisa, yall are in the same category as the US which is frankly disappointing to me given what a shitshow we are here.

but still the shape of that graph is much better than ours.

Well, we are opening up next week, so we are soon gonna get that sexy twin peak graph action going! :cheer:

That's the great thing about pandemics, the sky is the limit!! :sadcheer:

IN UR FACE

JoeP · #**1314** 06-12-2020, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miisa

IN UR MASK

ceptimus · #**1315** 06-12-2020, 12:17 PM

Fifth week running with no new doubling targets reached. :cheer:

I won't bother to post the tables this time as they're already on this page - just add seven days to the parenthesized figures on the last row of each table.

Stormlight · #**1316** 06-12-2020, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeP

Yeast of our worries: Marmite supplies hit by Covid-19 beer brewing slowdown | World news | The Guardian

Drink more beer, Joep! :shakesixpack:

JoeP · #**1317** 06-12-2020, 11:15 PM

I'M TRYING!

JoeP · #**1318** 06-12-2020, 11:55 PM

We're gonna have to retire the expression "avoid it like the plague" because it turns out humans do not do that
— Jenny Nicholson (@JennyENicholson) June 12, 2020

SR71 · #**1319** 06-14-2020, 04:00 AM

On that note, at my real job, designated essential, I've been going to all sorts of medical facilities the whole time. At first it was somewhat like isolation, because business fell of a cliff owing to limitations on elective procedures and people being too scared to go the doctor. At that point everyone was doing the hypervigilant things to avoid getting it. Now that it's only 4 or 5 hundred new cases a day in the state, business is about back to normal and people in health care facilities are starting to get pretty cavalier about prevention, no masks and whatnot. Come on people, specifically health care professionals, patients are trusting you to not get them sick if they come to your facility. Wear your damn masks. Sheesh.

BrotherMan · #**1320** 06-14-2020, 05:48 AM

And here I am being all mad because we're still getting tens of new cases a day and they're reopening shit - which I don't think it's time for yet. The Memorial Day spike I was expecting didn't happen though. I'm marginally hopeful.

ChuckF · #**1321** 06-14-2020, 01:02 PM

Our reopening spike has been huge. Averaging over 1000 confirmed cases and setting new hospitalization records most days over the past week. Positivity rate high and increasing. Looks like we are just starting to see our curve getting even steeper from the protests. There have been relatively fewer deaths as the congregate outbreaks have been managed and the virus is moving much more out in the world now.

Kamilah Hauptmann · #**1322** 06-15-2020, 08:38 PM

hDpv4tg.jpg

viscousmemories · #**1323** 06-16-2020, 12:42 AM

The City of Austin went to "Stage 4" today because yesterday we hit a predetermined "time to reevalute" target of a rolling 7 day avg of 20 new hospitalizations per day. We were at 8/d a couple weeks ago.

Screen Shot 2020-06-15 at 6.45.26 PM.png

beyelzu · #**1324** 06-16-2020, 04:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beyelzu

Quote:

Originally Posted by beyelzu

Quote:

David Montefiori, a Duke University scientist who worked on the report said it is the first to document a mutation in the coronavirus that appears to make it more infectious.

And

Quote:

Still unknown is whether this mutant virus could account for regional variations in how hard COVID-19 is hitting different parts of the world.

In the United States, doctors had begun to independently question whether new strains of the virus could account for the differences in how it has infected, sickened and killed people, said Alan Wu, a UC San Francisco professor who runs the clinical chemistry and toxicology laboratories at San Francisco General Hospital.

Medical experts have speculated in recent weeks that they were seeing at least two strains of the virus in the U.S., one prevalent on the East Coast and another on the West Coast, according to Wu.

Scientists say a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus appears to be more contagious than original

This is worrying.

Basically, they found that this strain outcompetes earlier strains. It’s the strain that ravaged Italy.

Here’s the thing, the Spanish Flu had two waves because the virus mutated and became more deadly, we could be in our second deadlier wave in New York already and as the population of infected grows (since we aren’t doing a great job of containment) the chance of mutation multiplied. Each new SARS-CoV-2 virus is a chance for a new mutation that could fuck us even harder.

403 Forbidden

basically scientists caution against jumping to conclusions. Correlation ain't necessarily causation after all.

Quote:

To begin with, the number of genome samples per location is generally quite small, and it's not clear how the sources of the virus were chosen for genome sequencing. Most of the locations were also experiencing complicated trajectories of growth and decline in the number of cases over the course of the study period. All of these factors could potentially make a relatively minor effect look larger than it is, although the large number of locations that show similar patterns makes this less likely.

As Hanage pointed out, we also know very little about how the virus has spread between different areas. The lack of details about how often the virus was introduced and how frequently additional sources traveled among locations leaves the possibility that the pattern could be a product of founder effects and frequent reintroductions from certain areas.

And as Rasmussen emphasized, sometimes mutations become prevalent for reasons other than providing a large selective advantage. We've apparently been here before, where a mutation was thought to increase the infectivity of Ebola virus, but tests of the mutation in animals showed that it made no difference whatsoever. In other words, evidence consistent with an idea isn't enough to confirm that idea without additional data. Since all the research team did was computer analysis of genome sequences, the paper couldn't possibly produce more conclusive evidence.

So the author's conclusion, that there is an "emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2," isn't conclusively supported by the paper's data. And that's an issue that would normally be sorted out by peer review. But for now, a lot of critical information will be reaching the public without the benefit of that essential step.

so we all need to be careful when viewing preprints in fields we arent intimately familiar with.

The prepring isn't necessarily wrong, but results in silica are necessarily provisional until done in vitro or in vivo. and, honestly, I should have stressed the provisional nature of such results.

mea culpa.

So follow up on the potential of a different strain.

a new preprint supports the hypothesis of a second strain.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/12/s...ics-spike.html

Quote:

But the new study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, does show that this mutation appears to change the biological function of the virus, experts said. The insight could be a crucial first step in understanding how the mutation behaves at a biomolecular level.

Researchers at Scripps Research, Florida, found that the mutation, known as D614G, stabilized the virus’s spike proteins, which protrude from the viral surface and give the coronavirus its name. The number of functional and intact spikes on each viral particle was about five times higher because of this mutation, they found.

These spike proteins must attach to a cell for a virus to infect it. As a result, the viruses with D614G were far more likely to infect a cell than viruses without that mutation, according to the scientists who led the study, Hyeryun Choe and Michael Farzan.

I haven't looked at the study itself, but assuming it's well done.

Quote:

“This is a powerful experimental study and the best evidence yet that the D614G mutation increases the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2,” said Eddie Holmes, a professor at the University of Sydney and a specialist in viral evolution.

I agree with Dr Holmes here.

This still isn't proof, but it is strong supporting evidence.

Quote:

Dr. Letko said, the new research was convincing in demonstrating that viruses with the D614G mutation were more infectious in the lab.

Experts said the next step in determining if there are differences in real-world transmission is to test different variants in animals.

Yep.

So I still wouldn't say that we definitely have strains yet, but we probably do. I caution because we once got this far with ebola and then ultimately determined it wasn't a new strain.

JoeP · #**1325** 06-16-2020, 06:36 PM

Coronavirus: Dexamethasone proves first life-saving drug - BBC News

Specifically this drug - which is already clinically approved and widely available - significantly increases survival rates for seriously ill patients already on oxygen or ventilators. It's not shown to be useful for less serious cases or in early stages (... and does not make covid-19 anything like "just the flu"). Still pretty good news.