#876  
Old 04-06-2017, 08:52 PM
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Default Re: News Miscellany

Now, back to Syria. I lost count of the number of double-takes I did while reading this article. Does the author try to prove there were deaths from gas, or just assume it? All the focus seems to be on there not being any recent building damage, disproving the claim attributed to Moscow that it was rebel-manufactured gas.

'The dead were wherever you looked': inside Syrian town after chemical attack | World news | The Guardian
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  #877  
Old 04-06-2017, 09:10 PM
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  #878  
Old 04-07-2017, 02:21 PM
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And now someone has driven a vehicle into people in Stockholm, reportedly killing some. No more details yet.
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  #879  
Old 04-07-2017, 10:25 PM
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And someone attacked a Syrian airbase in Homs: Latest update from Syrian airbase attacked by US Navy

Probably an ISIS ally.

Now, while this won't make ISIS any friendlier to the US, it will probably make Iran, Hezbollan and Russia a whole lot unfriendlier. You may think Hezbollah is unfriendly already, but in practice it is an ally and so are the Shi'ite Iraqi militias. That could easily change. Russia will fuck you over diplomatically but you might get some military/terrorist retaliation from that side.
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Old 04-07-2017, 11:35 PM
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And now someone has driven a vehicle into people in Stockholm, reportedly killing some. No more details yet.
Moar: Truck drives into crowd in Stockholm, killing four people | World news | The Guardian

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The Stockholm killings come two months after the US president, Donald Trump, was widely ridiculed for referring to a non-existent terror attack in Sweden.
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  #881  
Old 04-07-2017, 11:38 PM
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Ritholtz on a new Glass-Steagall
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  #882  
Old 04-08-2017, 12:15 AM
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According to the pro-regime al-Masdar: ISIL takes advantage of US attack on government to storm western Palmyra

ISIL launches offensive near military base targeted by US missiles
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Old 04-09-2017, 09:28 AM
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Foreclosure King Republican David Trott of MI-11 introduces bill to enrich his foreclosure business | Eclectablog

He seems nice.
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  #884  
Old 04-09-2017, 09:51 AM
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  #885  
Old 04-09-2017, 07:01 PM
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Default Re: News Miscellany

I would make a modification that the MT at-large special election is also important.

And it is a much more plausible win than KS-04, given that the GOP nominee (who is really hungry for office, any office) lost the MT governor's race in 2016 even as Trump easily carried the state.

All of them will provide useful information, however. Even if we lose KS-04, that district is very very Republican, and a relatively close race there is good news. The margin provides more information than the binary outcome.
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  #886  
Old 04-09-2017, 07:04 PM
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Quick, while they are all out on the play ground, take back the country!
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Old 04-10-2017, 10:21 AM
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We had local/municipal election yesterday. One dude is in a reserve spot and thus might get elected despite receiving 0 votes, as his party did so well so there are spillover votes for him.
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  #888  
Old 04-12-2017, 01:23 AM
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Cosmopolitan Magazine Calls Cancer Weight Loss Trend; Twitter Erupts | Observer



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  #889  
Old 04-12-2017, 01:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miisa View Post
We had local/municipal election yesterday. One dude is in a reserve spot and thus might get elected despite receiving 0 votes, as his party did so well so there are spillover votes for him.
I wish we had spillover votes in our legislatures :kickscan:
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  #890  
Old 04-12-2017, 04:45 AM
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So in the end the Republican wins KS-04 by less than 7 pts.

On the other hand, Trump won the district by about 27 pts (I believe) and Mike Pompeo (the Republican who vacated the seat to take a job in the Trump admin) won by about 30 pts.

So this is bad news for the Republicans. Losing the seat would've been an apocalyptic omen for the GOP, but if this result is repeated I think it would still qualify as catastrophic.

A 20 pt national swing should give the Democrats a significantly larger House majority than they had in 2009, and might even deliver the Senate. In the Senate, Nevada and Arizona are the only obvious pickup opportunities, which is not enough to get to 51 seats. But a 20 pt swing would even put Nebraska and Texas into play. While I don't see any other plausible wins in an optimistic scenario, I could see an anti-Trump conservative/Republican winning Utah (either Romney or McMullin), although it would probably require Hatch to be out of the picture (not inconceivable given that he's in his 80s).

I doubt we'd see a wave of that proportion, but even a 8-10 pt swing would probably give us the House.

Last edited by erimir; 04-12-2017 at 05:12 AM. Reason: final election margin was closer
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  #891  
Old 04-12-2017, 09:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miisa View Post
We had local/municipal election yesterday. One dude is in a reserve spot and thus might get elected despite receiving 0 votes, as his party did so well so there are spillover votes for him.
I wish we had spillover votes in our legislatures :kickscan:
Do you have "first past the post" in all elections or any variant where multiple people are chosen in one go?
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Old 04-12-2017, 05:59 PM
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The have multi member districts in the West Virginia and New Hampshire legislatures. I don't know if they have them anywhere else.

At the federal level it's all first past the post, or maybe a top two runoff (for congressional races in some states).
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Old 04-12-2017, 07:03 PM
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WBRC : Alabama Senate votes to allow church to form police dept.

What could possibly go wrong?
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  #894  
Old 04-12-2017, 07:33 PM
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You can't have sharia law if you have the Bible police first!
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  #895  
Old 04-13-2017, 12:43 AM
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Ok, here's an outlier. According to an Iranian newspaper, a Russian newspaper claims Russian planes shot down some of Trump's cruise missiles: Russian Media: 36 Lost US Missiles in Syria Airbase Attack Likely Intercepted by Russian Air Force
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Old 04-13-2017, 01:06 AM
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Appeals court judge found dead near Hudson River - NY Daily News

She was the first African-American woman judge to serve on the NY appeals court (basically their Supreme Court), the first Muslim judge to serve on the court, and also the first Muslim woman judge to serve in the entire country. Police are saying there’s currently no obvious evidence of foul play, but I’ve been unable to ascertain how far along the investigation is. I don’t believe a cause of death has yet been announced.

…I do have to add that a judge’s body being found in the Hudson would make me suspicious even in less politically volatile times. Or really, just bodies in the Hudson in general. If I hear “found in the Hudson,” I immediately think “foul play.”
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Old 04-13-2017, 09:26 AM
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Default Re: News Miscellany

Quote:
Originally Posted by erimir View Post
So in the end the Republican wins KS-04 by less than 7 pts.

On the other hand, Trump won the district by about 27 pts (I believe) and Mike Pompeo (the Republican who vacated the seat to take a job in the Trump admin) won by about 30 pts.

So this is bad news for the Republicans. Losing the seat would've been an apocalyptic omen for the GOP, but if this result is repeated I think it would still qualify as catastrophic.

A 20 pt national swing should give the Democrats a significantly larger House majority than they had in 2009, and might even deliver the Senate. In the Senate, Nevada and Arizona are the only obvious pickup opportunities, which is not enough to get to 51 seats. But a 20 pt swing would even put Nebraska and Texas into play. While I don't see any other plausible wins in an optimistic scenario, I could see an anti-Trump conservative/Republican winning Utah (either Romney or McMullin), although it would probably require Hatch to be out of the picture (not inconceivable given that he's in his 80s).

I doubt we'd see a wave of that proportion, but even a 8-10 pt swing would probably give us the House.
I heard it said (but haven't checked) that the democrat running received 8 million in small donations, but no real backing from the democrat party machine... while the republican guy was backed by robo calls from Cruz, Pence and Trump himself.

If that is true, things look pretty wobbly for a lot of republican seats.
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  #898  
Old 04-13-2017, 10:10 AM
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I doubt we'd see a wave of that proportion, but even a 8-10 pt swing would probably give us the House.
Given that gerrymandering works by spreading a majority in an area as thinly as possible while still securing victory across the constituencies in that area (under normal circumstances), is there a possibility that a large enough swing could work against the Republicans, by making many gerrymandered districts fall once a certain threshold is reached? What sort of swing would it take?
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Old 04-13-2017, 06:02 PM
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I'm not sure, but once you break through, generally losses accelerate for the gerrymandering party.

So if the Democrats manage to take the House, there's a decent chance they'll overshoot the required seats significantly.
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Old 04-15-2017, 03:07 AM
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Quote:
A former US official knowledgeable about the episode told Truthout that the Russians had actually informed their US counterparts in Syria of the Syrian military's plan to strike the warehouse in Khan Sheikhoun 24 hours before the strike. And a leading analyst on military technology, Dr. Theodore Postol of MIT, has concluded that the alleged device for a sarin attack could not have been delivered from the air but only from the ground, meaning that the chemical attack may not have been the result of the Syrian airstrike.

The Trump administration is pushing the accusation that the Assad regime was the force that carried out the highly lethal chemical attack on April 4 very hard, perhaps not so much to justify the already politically popular US strike against the Shayrat airbase on April 6, but rather to buttress a new hardline policy against the Syrian regime.
New Revelations Belie Trump Claims on Syria Chemical Attack
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