|
|
07-30-2017, 01:20 AM
|
|
Shitpost Sommelier
|
|
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
__________________
Peering from the top of Mount Stupid
|
07-30-2017, 05:12 AM
|
|
Projecting my phallogos with long, hard diction
|
|
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Dee Cee
Gender: Male
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
Of note is that McCain has announced he is returning to Arizona to undergo treatment, and won't return until the end of the August recess, which means that his vote will be unavailable until around Labor Day. Of course, depending on how his treatment goes, he could potentially be gone longer.
It seems that the Senate will probably not be entering a full recess in order to prevent Trump from making a recess appointment to replace Jeff Sessions, so I don't know if that means that McConnell could try some shenanigans.
Either way, with McCain gone, McConnell only has Collins or Murkowski available to flip for the next few weeks at a minimum.
After McCain returns, they have until the end of September until the reconciliation bill expires (at the end of the fiscal year), after which point I believe they'd have to restart the whole process from the House again.
So if they don't pass anything by the end of September we're probably in the clear for a while. The GOP can always try again, but after this months-long process, how extremely unpopular it was and constant protests and calls at their offices, I can imagine there are some who just want to move on.
|
07-31-2017, 12:22 AM
|
|
Shitpost Sommelier
|
|
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
__________________
Peering from the top of Mount Stupid
|
07-31-2017, 12:49 AM
|
|
Servant of the Dark Lord
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2005
Gender: Bender
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
Personally, I think at some point the Repugnantians will find a way to pass their shitty health care bill. The only question to my mind is when and not if.
|
07-31-2017, 02:25 AM
|
|
Projecting my phallogos with long, hard diction
|
|
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Dee Cee
Gender: Male
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
They have until December 2018, I would say. It looks like there's a pretty good chance they'll lose the House. And even if they don't, they'll have a fairly small majority.
|
07-31-2017, 06:30 AM
|
|
Shitpost Sommelier
|
|
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
__________________
Peering from the top of Mount Stupid
|
07-31-2017, 01:40 PM
|
|
Dr. Jerome Corsi-Soetoro, Ph.D., Esq.
|
|
Join Date: May 2009
Location: The Land of Pleasant Living
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
I didn't know Obamacare is putting hospitals in rural Japan 50 years ago.
__________________
What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. ... The origin of myths is explained in this way.
|
08-01-2017, 04:35 AM
|
|
Shitpost Sommelier
|
|
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
__________________
Peering from the top of Mount Stupid
|
08-02-2017, 12:15 AM
|
|
Servant of the Dark Lord
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2005
Gender: Bender
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
Quote:
Originally Posted by erimir
They have until December 2018, I would say. It looks like there's a pretty good chance they'll lose the House. And even if they don't, they'll have a fairly small majority.
|
I find that doubtful considering how the Repugnants had been able to draw Congressional districts in such a way as to prevent that very thing. Although, when they pulled that stunt it was before acting so heinously that they inspired a massive backlash against them.
|
08-02-2017, 01:39 AM
|
|
Safety glasses off, motherfuckers
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Sarasota, FL
Gender: Bender
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
Quote:
Originally Posted by MonCapitan2002
Quote:
Originally Posted by erimir
They have until December 2018, I would say. It looks like there's a pretty good chance they'll lose the House. And even if they don't, they'll have a fairly small majority.
|
I find that doubtful considering how the Repugnants had been able to draw Congressional districts in such a way as to prevent that very thing. Although, when they pulled that stunt it was before acting so heinously that they inspired a massive backlash against them.
|
The thing about gerrymandering is that when it breaks down, it breaks down hard. I'm currently on my phone and on break at work, so I can't find or write a good explanation of this right now, but if the typical ten-point shifts to Democrats hold through next year, gerrymandering won't be our biggest obstacle; vote suppression will.
(The short explanation is that because gerrymandering spreads one's supporters out over larger numbers of districts, a sufficient collapse in support can be catastrophic; the support is spread widely but shallow.)
__________________
Cēterum cēnseō factiōnem Rēpūblicānam dēlendam esse īgnī ferrōque.
|
08-02-2017, 01:55 AM
|
|
Projecting my phallogos with long, hard diction
|
|
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Dee Cee
Gender: Male
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
That's why it's not guaranteed. If simply winning the House popular vote was good enough to win control of the chamber, the GOP would be like >95% sure to lose the House.
The polls suggest that Democrats ought to win the House popular vote by around 7 or 8 pts, but intervening events could expand that or contract it. The presidential party's position tends to decline over time relative to the polls at this point. 2002 is the biggest outlier because of 9/11. I suspect Trump is more likely to bungle the response to a crisis than rise to the occasion. The special election results are also consistent with a Democratic advantage.
Democrats need to win the House popular vote by somewhere around 5-8 pts to overcome Republican gerrymandering and other effects. With Democrats up by around 7-10 pts in the generic ballot polls now, that suggests they will probably be able to hit that mark. But it's not a guarantee. The polls can be wrong. Likewise, it's possible that they will outperform that mark, and end up winning the House popular vote by >12 pts (for comparison, they won it in 2006 by 8 pts and in 2008 by 10.6 pts).
The funny thing is with gerrymandering, once you get past the "firewall" or whatever you want to call it, it can actually harm the gerrymandering party. The goal is to win many districts by a moderate margin - big enough that you're generally safe. If the opposing party wins by a large margin, they will expand past their packed districts into the cracked districts. It's not likely, but if the environment declines significantly for Republicans compared to now, Democrats could win their biggest majority since 1992 or earlier.
And of course, Republican voter suppression tactics could affect this as well. But if the public turns against them strongly enough, that won't be enough to save them. Voter suppression won't save them if suburban white people turn against them too.
Anyway, you can check out this for some graphs and stuff too:
Here’s The Best Tool We Have For Understanding How The Midterms Are Shaping Up | FiveThirtyEight
Basic takeaway is: Republicans will almost certainly lose seats and Democrats have a good shot at taking the House.
|
08-03-2017, 03:20 AM
|
|
Flyover Hillbilly
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Juggalonia
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerome
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephen Maturin
Male darkies aren't exactly renowned for self-control.
|
See, you think being 'liberal' gives you a free pass on openly being racist.
|
It is mathematically, scientifically and undeniably true that male darkies lack self-control. Your disgraceful use of a pee see buzzword designed to squelch the free exchange of ideas does not alter that truth one whit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerome
You will couch it as mockery, but you really get a thrill up your leg
|
"Get a thrill up your leg" ... is that some sort of congoid sex thing? Cuz, ew.
Admittedly, I enjoy telling unpleasant truths even at personal cost to myself, but "get a thrill up [my] leg" is not an apt description. You couldn't possibly be expected to understand this, but civilized human beings simply don't express themselves in such ways.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerome
racist.
|
There's that pee see buzzword again. Sorry there, cupcake, but snowflakey cucks such as yourself no longer control the terms of discourse here in Donald Trump's America. If the mention of unpleasant truths upsets you, then perhaps you should retreat to your safe place.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kamilah Hauptmann
Biggest head trip to me is the second panel. Who knew the US president could order executions?
|
And apparently POTUS's authority to send people to death row on his own say-so expires pretty quickly. It was just over four months into the Trump administration when Mr. James made that tweet, and the time when "[Trump] had the chance" had already expired.
Twitter is a veritable cornucopia of lolyerly knowledge.
__________________
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis D. Brandeis
"Psychos do not explode when sunlight hits them, I don't give a fuck how crazy they are." ~ S. Gecko
"What the fuck is a German muffin?" ~ R. Swanson
|
08-03-2017, 08:55 AM
|
|
Astroid the Foine Loine between a Poirate and a Farrrmer
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2011
Gender: Male
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
Quote:
It is mathematically, scientifically and undeniably true that male darkies lack self-control. Your disgraceful use of a pee see buzzword designed to squelch the free exchange of ideas does not alter that truth one whit.
|
Typical of the kind of fascistoid, repressive SJW types to ignore the documented fact that male darkies as a demographic are prone to a lack of self control. Hypocritically they ignore the data based only on their ideological views about race, which of course is where the real racism sets in.
Just like how making racial profiling illegal is an essentially racist policy, but try telling THAT to the groupthinking drones!
|
08-03-2017, 03:57 PM
|
|
Jin, Gi, Rei, Ko, Chi, Shin, Tei
|
|
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
I've sent my Congresscritter -- Mitch McConnell, no less -- missives expressing my distaste for some of his policies.
Yesterday, I received an e-mail from him. It's obviously a mass mailing, but it was interesting nonetheless. In it, he insists that he's so determined to get rid of "Obamacare" because it was "forced" on the American people.
I'm tempted to send a short reply that begins with: "You unbelievable hypocrite ...".
__________________
“The greatest way to live with honor in this world is to be what we pretend to be.” -- Socrates
|
08-03-2017, 04:24 PM
|
|
This is the title that appears beneath your name on your posts.
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2005
Gender: Male
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
It might be more likely that he reads the letter if you put the hypocrite at the end.
|
08-03-2017, 06:12 PM
|
|
Projecting my phallogos with long, hard diction
|
|
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Dee Cee
Gender: Male
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
It was forced on America by solid majority of the House and 60 votes in Senate.
Gawd, it's so awful that Democrats thought they could do stuff just because a large majority of America voted for them.
It's not fair that Republicans don't get to do whatever they want when fewer Americans vote for them but they get to control the Senate and White House anyway. I mean, they have 52 votes, why isn't that as good as 60?
|
08-06-2017, 04:06 PM
|
|
Shitpost Sommelier
|
|
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
__________________
Peering from the top of Mount Stupid
|
08-07-2017, 04:24 AM
|
|
Shitpost Sommelier
|
|
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
__________________
Peering from the top of Mount Stupid
|
08-07-2017, 04:36 AM
|
|
Projecting my phallogos with long, hard diction
|
|
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Dee Cee
Gender: Male
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
I think strong conservatives should be very disappointed with Dean Heller and promote a primary challenge that will force McConnell to spend heavily to defend him. They should probably air vicious attack ads against him too.
|
08-09-2017, 08:26 PM
|
|
Flyover Hillbilly
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Juggalonia
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
I'm not saying that John McCain's brain tumor is what voted against repealing the ACA, but hey, let's face it - McCain's brain tumor is probably what voted against repealing the ACA.
~ Sen. Ron Johnson
__________________
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis D. Brandeis
"Psychos do not explode when sunlight hits them, I don't give a fuck how crazy they are." ~ S. Gecko
"What the fuck is a German muffin?" ~ R. Swanson
|
08-09-2017, 10:16 PM
|
|
Projecting my phallogos with long, hard diction
|
|
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Dee Cee
Gender: Male
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
I knew it was only a matter of time before a Republican said that.
Ron Johnson would not have been at the top of my list of "Republicans most likely to say that McCain's brain cancer affected his thinking and made him come to the ridiculous conclusion that people dying is bad" though. Kudos for being the first notable one to get there.
|
08-10-2017, 03:48 AM
|
|
Dr. Jerome Corsi-Soetoro, Ph.D., Esq.
|
|
Join Date: May 2009
Location: The Land of Pleasant Living
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
It was funny watching the libs piss on McCain, he has always been a typical warmongering lib.
He was the patsy to get Obama elected.
He said it was wrong to point out Obama had two Muslim fathers, lol
Reality TV, and you dopes fall for it, every time.
__________________
What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index into his desires -- desires of which he himself is often unconscious. ... The origin of myths is explained in this way.
|
08-10-2017, 04:10 AM
|
|
Shitpost Sommelier
|
|
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
__________________
Peering from the top of Mount Stupid
|
09-06-2017, 07:17 PM
|
|
Safety glasses off, motherfuckers
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Sarasota, FL
Gender: Bender
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
Ugh. It's this shit again.
Time to call the Senate again – Balloon Juice
Quote:
Graham-Cassidy would shift money from states that have successfully implemented the ACA to non-expansion states and then ratchet down the block grants.
Time to call the Senate again.
We need to run out the clock to 12:01 October 1, 2017 at which point the healthcare reconciliation instructions expire. Encourage Senate Democrats to submit bills to the CBO for scoring so that they are back-logged and can not rapidly score anything that needs to be scored for reconciliation. Call and encourage the Sanders budget team to go to town with the Parliamentarian. 24 days need to be burned.
|
__________________
Cēterum cēnseō factiōnem Rēpūblicānam dēlendam esse īgnī ferrōque.
|
09-07-2017, 12:20 AM
|
|
Shitpost Sommelier
|
|
|
|
Re: Health Care Reform Dead
__________________
Peering from the top of Mount Stupid
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
All times are GMT +1. The time now is 09:26 PM.
|
|
|
|