The Resistance 2 - Game Thread

[Jerome]

Originally Posted by Contrapposto

If you truly feel that way then why aren't you keeping both of us off the mission?

Because the two of you need to be sorted.

[Contrapposto]

The problem with my theory is that I have a hard time believing Jerome would be a spy two games in a row. What are the odds?

[Contrapposto]

I know, "gambler's fallacy", so no need for anyone to point it out.

chunks, I see you lurking. What are your thoughts on the proposal?

[chunksmediocrites]

Originally Posted by JEROME DA GNOME

Players would talk more if the votes were open.

I've prompted conversations with you a couple times and then when you bother to respond, you just opine without explaining how you reached that decision.

I think either you [Contra] or Chunks is the other Spy.

For example.

How did you reach that conclusion? That this mission was successful vastly increases our odds of pulling off 3 successful missions. If I was an infiltrator, it would be much smarter to FAIL this last run, IMO; that would make all four players in that round suspect, and reduce the credibility of Adam and Daphne substantially; mission 4 then would have to be composed of someone from the failed mission, with no clear choice. That would give the infiltrators a chance to fail mission 4 and win outright.

OTOH, if one of the four on the last mission was a spy and SUCCESSED the mission, they have a 75% chance of being picked for mission 4 (at best, and assuming all three were pulled from mission 3). But then the infiltrator would HAVE to FAIL mission 4, which would improve odds of being able to suss out the spy.

Now I need to go back and see if Crumb says how many go on mission 5.

Anyway, I am mostly just relieved that the mission was a success; my other best hope was for two FAILS in mission 3 because then we would know for sure which two players aren't spies, and narrow it down.

[Contrapposto]

Four go on mission 5.

[chunksmediocrites]

Originally Posted by JEROME DA GNOME

It would be better to sort you or Chunks then myself.

I reviewed the OP; Mission 5 is going to require four members.

Here's what I figure:

If the spies are Kael and Jerome, and Jerome proposes Adam, Daphne, and Contra for mission 4, then he's giving the Resistance an outright win.

If the spies are Jerome and either Adam, Daphne, or Contra, then there's a FAILED mission 4, and then we have to vote for four members of mission 5. Which would suck.

It is unlikely both Adam and Daphne are spies, or else they are some crafty Machiavellian types and hats off, you two. I'm still wondering if one of them is a spy, but have no way of knowing; has anyone else in this game played with Daphne or Adam before in other games? Are they usually this quiet in game? Adam seemed more talkative in the first Resistance thread I read.

If Kael is a spy he's an awfully quiet one. The downside for him is the mission he was on was the FAIL, where Adam and Daphne have some successes.

What's the best combo for mission 4? All I know for sure is that I'm not a spy, so I would want to be on the mission. I don't know if Contra's a spy. Again, anybody else who has been in game with him- any tells in his playing style? Tricksy? Subtle? Lion?

Anybody, thoughts?

[Kael]

You have no particular reason to believe me, of course, but I'm rather irked with our spies. They're doing the trolling that I wanted to do next game I was a spy, and they're pulling it off marvelously. I know someone on the last mission was a spy, because I am not, and I did not go, on a mission that sends the same number of operatives as there are true Resistance members. I don't know if it's Adam or Daphne, it would have to be one of them that failed the mission I did go on, but whichever one of you it is, I'm sure you're having a ball.

[chunksmediocrites]

So obviously one spy has to be either Kael, Adam, or Daphne.

If there was a spy on the last mission, it would be only one of the four members; I find it unlikely both would choose mission 3 to succeed.
So here's what I can deduce from fact and probability, of what combo of spies is possible and impossible:
Jerome and Adam: possible
Jerome and Daphne: possible
Jerome and Kael: no (because Jerome picked neither for mission 4)
Jerome and Contra: no (because neither were on mission 2 FAIL)
Jerome and Chunks: no (same reason+ I know I'm not a spy)
Adam and Daphne: possible (but unlikely both would not fail mission 1 and 2)
Adam and Kael: possible (but unlikely both would not FAIL mission 2)
Adam and Contra: possible but unlikely that both would abstain from Failing mission 3)
Adam and Chunks: possible but same as above (plus I know I'm not a spy)
Daphne and Kael: possible but unlikely
Daphne and Contra: possible but unlikely both abstaining from mission 3 fail)
Daphne and Chunks: possible but same problem
Contra and Chunks: possible but same problem (plus I know I'm not a spy)
Contra and Kael: possible
Kael and Chunks: possible (but I know I'm not a spy)

So then I eliminate all the outright impossible combos and the combos with myself, leaving:
Jerome and Adam
Jerome and Daphne
Adam and Daphne (unlikely)
Adam and Kael (unlikely)
Adam and Contra (unlikely)
Daphne and Kael (unlikely)
Daphne and Contra (unlikely)
Contra and Kael

So what's the best combo for a 3-person mission? If Jerome is a spy, but doesn't want both spies on the same mission, then

Proposal 4.1: Adam, Daphne, Contra

makes it likely Daphne or Adam is the other spy.

If Jerome is not a spy, then why would he not choose himself for the mission?

Jerome, I need more information on how you are figuring the "sorting" you referenced, else I'm voting against your proposal.

[Adam]

JEROME, I'm still waiting on the reasoning behind your insistence that particular people need "sorted", and how your proposal accomplishes that.

Chunks, why do you find it unlikely that both spies would allow the last mission to succeed?

[chunksmediocrites]

I'll catch up in a few hours on some theorizin', but I figure that since the spies aren't communicating- or are at least not supposed to- they have no way of knowing if the other is going to FAIL the mission. And one might decide to delay, but both? Also, a FAIL there at mid-point with four possibles makes better odds of getting into the final two missions undetected.

...Or it could be that both figured the other was going to vote FAIL. Or part of a deeper plan to lull the rest of the resistance into believing them both loyal to the cause...

Still figuring. I'm going to go back and look at the earlier failed proposal and see if I can suss out any hints there.

[Crumb]

Still need your votes on Jerome's proposal.

Proposal 4.1: Adam, Daphne, Contra

[chunksmediocrites]

Still waiting on Jerome to offer some insight into his choice, but if he's quiet much longer I'll vote no in an hour or two.

[Crumb]

That's fine. This was not aimed at you alone, and I am not trying to rush things. Just didn't want the fact that we had a proposal on the table to be forgotten.

[Jerome]

Originally Posted by Adam

JEROME, I'm still waiting on the reasoning behind your insistence that particular people need "sorted", and how your proposal accomplishes that.

At this point the odds are that you and Daphne are safe, assumptions need to be made in this game, therefore Kael is a spy. Here we have Contra or chunks as the last spy. Send one on this mission, if it works we win, if not then the he is a spy and he is not sent next mission and we win.

[Jerome]

Originally Posted by Crumb

That's fine. This was not aimed at you alone, and I am not trying to rush things. Just didn't want the fact that we had a proposal on the table to be forgotten.

[chunksmediocrites]

So here's why I'm voting no. Right now I'm leaning towards Adam and Jerome. Mostly because they both appear to be hanging back in the pro or con arguments for missions, except for mission 2.1 where Adam was against right away. If he is resistance, then it makes sense; but it makes as much or more sense for him to go against because neither Jerome or Adam was on mission 2.

Also, if Jerome was not a spy and believed Adam and Daphne aren't spies, he would put himself with Adam and Daphne on this mission, and win it for the resistance with what he would believe the best odds.

Second choice Jerome and Daphne but I'm leaning less towards this.

I may be way overthinking this but I'm voting no.

[chunksmediocrites]

Okay I'm getting super paranoid.

[Crumb]

[chunksmediocrites]

Tom Waits - In the Colosseum - YouTube

[Adam]

OK, I've been thinking it through, and probably wifoming the shit out of myself.

I think the spy team is either Kael and JEROME or else Daphne* and one of chunks and contra.

The first mission succeeded. That means that either Daphne is clear, or else Daphne is smart enough to succeed one to build cred.

The second mission failed. That means that either Kael is a spy, or else Daphne came out of hiding.

The third mission succeeded. If Daphne were a spy, then the only possible reason she might have to succeed this mission would be if there were a second spy on it. Therefore, if Daphne is a spy, then one of contra and chunks is. However, if Daphne is not a spy, then Kael is. Since I can't see any reason a spy would succeed mission three if there were no other spies on it, that means that if Kael is one spy, JEROME must be the other.

I am leaning toward JEROME and Kael.

But, if JEROME and Kael are the spy pair, why would JEROME propose a mission that he is not on? Last ditch effort to confuse us?

Thoughts?

Also, here's an idea: So, we're within one mission of winning. I think that any mission should have either both members of a likely spy pair or else none. If none, we win. If both, the spies are stuck in a sort of sideways PD, where the ideal move is for one to S and one to F, but without being able to communicate, each individual's best move is to F.

The problem is that Daphne and I are the only ones from whose perspective it would work, since we're the only ones who can clear one of ourselves.


* - For people who are not me, and don't know I'm clean, any time I refer to Daphne here, you can probably read "Daphne or Adam".

[Adam]

Wait, no. Chunks wouldn't have set himself up like that. He's clean. It's either daphne/contra or Jerome/kael.

[Adam]

Which means that Jerome's proposal actually does contain one of my proposed spy pairs.

Hmm...

[chunksmediocrites]

It can't be Jerome/ Kael, because it is improbable that Jerome would propose a mission without himself or Kael on that mission.

Daphne and Contra were both on mission 3; if they are both spies, they both chose to success that mission: that's possible, but seems a little unlikely.

[Adam]

Also, note that Jerome claims to have voted no on the proposal for mission 3.

[Adam]

Originally Posted by chunksmediocrites

It can't be Jerome/ Kael, because it is improbable that Jerome would propose a mission without himself or Kael on that mission.

Daphne and Contra were both on mission 3; if they are both spies, they both chose to success that mission: that's possible, but seems a little unlikely.

If both fail the mission, everyone not on the mission is fully cleared. Prisoner's dilemma...without being able to communicate, the safe move for each spy is to succeed.