Blurple Ripple in 3,2,1...

[erimir]

Another bright spot was Virginia, where Minnesotan Neo-Confederate Corey Stewart crashed and burned spectacularly in his race against Tim Kaine, losing by 16 pts. Remember how Virginia was a close race in 2014 (Mark Warner) and 2006 (George Allen)? The Virginia GOP had a very bad night, losing three House seats out of the mere eleven in VA. They flipped from a 7-4 advantage in the VA delegation to a 4-7 minority. I'm guessing they will be shaking in their boots for the 2019 legislative elections, where Democrats need to flip only two seats in the VA House and one in the VA Senate in order to take full control of the VA government.

Originally Posted by Clutch Munny

Just poppin in to say, I hope somewhere Scarlatti is smiling about the large dusty bootmark on Scott Walker's ass.

Apparently the turnout in Madison (Dane County) was insane. As was the margin. Despite how much smaller it is than Milwaukee, Evers actually got a bigger margin out of Dane County than Milwaukee County in terms of votes.

Milwaukee County: 35 pt margin, 140k vote margin
Dane County: 50 pt margin! 150k vote margin

Originally Posted by specious_reasons

I also don't think that Romney will be anything other than the weak-willed, morphing POS he's always been, so I don't think his past opposition to Trump will amount to a hill of beans now.

I think this is probably correct, but it's notable that Utah is one of the states where he could most afford to be anti-Trump. One of the House members there is relatively anti-Trump and won his primary and reelection easily. If he decides not to offer even a Flake-level opposition to Trump, it's because he doesn't want to.

On the other hand, if he gets a fit of conscience, it will be easy to indulge. But I suspect some of the Never Trump Republicans who assure us that Democrats were too hard on Romney and he really is a good man and it's so unfortunate he didn't win in 2012 because then there'd be no Trump, etc. etc. are about to find out how deluded they've been about him, because Romney won't do shit.

[Ensign Steve]

Originally Posted by erimir

I think this is probably correct, but it's notable that Utah is one of the states where he could most afford to be anti-Trump.

For real. Southern evangelicals may be flaming hypocrites, but I'd like to believe that Mormons would at least try to appear anti-pussy-grabbing.

[erimir]

Mormons are also a lot less anti-immigration than evangelicals (because Asia, Polynesia and Latin America are focuses for their proselytizing).

[specious_reasons]

Originally Posted by erimir

I think this is probably correct, but it's notable that Utah is one of the states where he could most afford to be anti-Trump. One of the House members there is relatively anti-Trump and won his primary and reelection easily. If he decides not to offer even a Flake-level opposition to Trump, it's because he doesn't want to.

On the other hand, if he gets a fit of conscience, it will be easy to indulge. But I suspect some of the Never Trump Republicans who assure us that Democrats were too hard on Romney and he really is a good man and it's so unfortunate he didn't win in 2012 because then there'd be no Trump, etc. etc. are about to find out how deluded they've been about him, because Romney won't do shit.

I expect about Flake-level of opposition, unless he finds some specific advantage to doing more (or less).

Rmoney is not a white nationalist and is mostly not prone to advocating conspiracy theories. There are many, many more worse Republicans out there, and I'd rather have him in the Senate than a whole lot of other people. I just don't think anyone should be optimistic about him.

[Stephen Maturin]

The race for clerk of an obscure county in Kentucky ordinary wouldn't generate much interest outside the county itself. However, the clerk of Rowan County, Kentucky is grandstanding asshole Kim Davis, who became a wingnut hero in 2015 when she refused to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples after the Obergefell decision. Among other things, Davis' grandstanding cost taxpayers some $225,000.00, the attorney fees incurred by the same-sex couples who sued to get marriage licenses issued.

In yet another feel-good story from Election 2018, Rowan County voters gave Davis the stanky boot yesterday. Happy trails and fare thee well, ya piece of shit.

[The Man]

Florida’s Governor, Senate, Ag Races May Be Subjected To Recount « CBS Miami

So… I doubt FSM really loves us this much, but if any state pulls a La La Land this year, what other state would it be than Florida? Especially if it’s for three different offices, including governor and senator; that’s just the sort of unsubtle writing we’ve come to expect from these showrunners. Like I said, I strongly doubt anything will come of this, but especially after 2000, it sure would be poetic if it did, even though it would mean Florida elections would be an eternal punchline afterwards. (And honestly, we’d kind of deserve it.)

[erimir]

The election probably needs to be within 0.1% for a recount to make a difference.

It is of course, worth it just in case there's some large box of ballots that was misplaced (or "misplaced") or a data entry error. But even if there were 2,000 ballots here or there, it's not enough to make up a 30k vote deficit.

BUT my impression is that there are still thousands of absentee and provisional ballots that may need to be counted, which could potentially push the race into that range.

But I wouldn't hold my breath for Gillum to make up his deficit which is significantly larger.

The real election error is that 1.5 million people should've been eligible to vote and weren't, people's registrations were purged, lines were too long, etc.

[SR71]

It's still a squeaker for the NJ3 house, but the Democrat had a narrow lead at last report and there are still 7000 to count.

Democrat Andy Kim claims win over U.S. Rep. Tom MacArthur in N.J.’s 3rd Congressional District

The Republican was the projected winner on election night but there were still a lot of mail in and provisional ballots left to tally.

[The Man]

We're Florida. Recounts are what we do.

FL Update, 11/8, 2 pm
Ag Comm: DEM +575 (+.006%)
Senate: GOP +17,344 (+.22%)
Governor: GOP +38,515 (+.47%)

Unknown number of Broward ballots and statewide provisionals uncounted

Margin for machine recount: .5%
Margin for hand recount: .25%

— David Beard ��️*�� (@dwbeard) November 8, 2018

Florida governor's race faces recount as Senate race gets even tighter - Orlando Sentinel

Barring some ridiculous fluke, it looks quite likely that all three races will be recounted, and the Agricultural Commissioner and Senate races will be hand recounted. Obviously, the Ag Comm is likeliest to flip Dem based on those numbers. We'll see what happens.

Interesting tidbit: Apparently Gillum retains the services of GW Bush's recount lawyer from 2000. Evidently this field is genuinely non-partisan.

As a former Broward County resident, I'm also not surprised that so much of this hinges on its ballots. There are few stranger places anywhere on the globe.

ETA: The only way this recount story could be any more Florida is if an alligator on bath salts were somehow declared the winner.

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Gerrymandering math lesson in Texas.

1/ Gerrymandering has backfired for Republicans in Dallas County.

Republicans had hoped to keep a majority of Texas House seats there when they redrew district boundaries.

Now, they hold onto only two of 14. #Midterms2018 #Election2018 #txlegehttps://t.co/1OAX3OEvJW pic.twitter.com/tIMkld6gPC

— Texas Tribune (@TexasTribune) November 8, 2018

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

2018 Midterms, Economically Adjusted - The Big Picture

Adjusted for economic conditions and asset prices, 2018 midterms resulted in the worst House retention by any President in 100 years.

[JoeP]

I may not have followed all the details (I'm on my phone), but I'm encouraged that the Florida Alligator Commissioner might flip.

[Clutch Munny]

As one friend remarked, an alligator eating an orange while wearing Mickey Mouse ears is less peak Florida than Republicans trying to block a recount.

[SR71]

And what's more peak Georgia than peaches besides a black kid getting shot at a gas station for loud music

show spoiler

and then his mom getting elected on an anti gun platform?

[erimir]

Actually, Jordan Davis was shot and killed in Jacksonville, Florida, not in Georgia.

But it could easily have happened in Georgia (Jacksonville isn't exactly dissimilar from Georgia, unlike say, Miami).

[The Man]

I come bearing two pieces of good news out of GA and one out of AZ. The two pieces of news out of GA aren’t what everyone’s really hoping for, but they’re not nothing:

I just want to make sure everyone knows Georgia's Secretary of State race went to a Dec. 4th runoff between John Barrow (D) and Brad Raffensperger (R).

This is the election to elect Brian Kemp's successor. So it should be obvious how important position is for voting rights.

— Taniel (@Taniel) 12 November 2018

People can help Barrow directly here:https://t.co/iOraFwiptK
They can help @GeorgiaDemocrat, as well as Gillum, Nelson, Abrams etc. here: https://t.co/NOQr8pFRGX

— Charles BlueWave-ba (@charles_gaba) 12 November 2018

And:

Here's why this matters. On the eve of election night, we filed suit against the SoS' office, saying that they recklessly publicized over and over a MAJOR vulnerability in the state's registration database.

— Stephen Fee (@stephenmfee) 13 November 2018

A judge issued a temporary order requiring the state create an online portal and hotline so voters can check to see if their ballots were counted; to ensure a thorough review of those ballots; and to hold off on certifying results at least until Friday. https://t.co/6N0yJPr5Lv

— Stephen Fee (@stephenmfee) 13 November 2018

Oh, and Georgia is my home state so very pleased to see my current employer doing right by Georgia's voters.

— Stephen Fee (@stephenmfee) 13 November 2018

The AZ news is what everyone was hoping for: Republican Martha McSally has conceded the Senate race to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema.

[SR71]

Still waiting to see what happens in NJ3. As far as I can ascertain, looks like (D) Kim is ahead by a few thousand votes, about 1%.

As the late decisions filter in, I'm willing to give it wave status given a respectable number of house flips, but with an asterisk. A proper wave event should wash all before it, meaning it should include the senate.

Wave*

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

A proper wave event is continuing to nag your reps and make them fear being primaried if they don't do what you elected them to.

Thrad, but post stands alone.

Reminder that electing Democrats instead of Republicans was only step 1.

Step 2 is going to be to call them every day, visit their town halls, demonstrate as necessary and scream at them to actually fight the fight we voted for them to fight. Their natural setting is status quo. https://t.co/uI55kk2iQu

— Julius Goat ��(Read Pinned Tweet!) (@JuliusGoat) November 11, 2018

[erimir]

Originally Posted by SR71

Still waiting to see what happens in NJ3. As far as I can ascertain, looks like (D) Kim is ahead by a few thousand votes, about 1%.

As the late decisions filter in, I'm willing to give it wave status given a respectable number of house flips, but with an asterisk. A proper wave event should wash all before it, meaning it should include the senate.

Wave*

The thing is that the Senate comparison is to 2012 rather than 2016, and in 2012 we had an unusually good year - in part due to Republicans self-destructing in a couple races with comments about rape ("if it's a legitimate rape" and that pregnancies caused by rape are a gift from God). Indiana especially would've been an easy hold for the GOP in 2012 if they had simply renominated the incumbent, but Missouri probably would've gone their way too had they nominated someone who was not a nutjob, or at least smart enough to keep his mouth shut about rape.

Without those two seats... 2018 would've been a hold for Democrats.

Either way, they won 24 out of 35 seats that were up, with two more to be decided. Winning 69% of the Senate seats seems like a pretty good performance to me, even though, yes, it's not as good as the 76% we won in 2012...

(If we somehow get lucky, it could go as high as 74%, but a win in both the Florida recount AND Mississippi seems like a huge longshot. Winning in one of them is unlikely but not totally implausible...)

But nearly maintaining the senate position from 2006, which was a wave, while disappointing and having huge implications for presidential appointments (especially judges) since it didn't give us control... doesn't seem like it should disqualify this from being a wave.

[The Man]

SR71 will be happy about this, at least:

Remember that viral town hall where a guy scorned his Congressman for trying to take away his wife's health insurance?

That Congressman was Tom MacArthur, architect of the Obamacare repeal.

He just lost reelection. pic.twitter.com/0ceMFcSKGe

— Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) November 14, 2018

In any case, if you'd told Democrats in early 2016 that they'd lose at most a net of two seats through the 2017-2018 election cycle, I think most would've been really pleased. This was an abysmal Senate map for us. (Of course, if you'd told them it'd be due to a Trump presidency*, they'd be horrified, but whatever.) We actually won by far more votes in Senate races than Republicans did, but of course the malapportionment of the Senate is a consistent problem that won't be getting any better anytime soon.

[SR71]

I am pleased, especially since it looked like he was way behind on 11/6. I'm surprised it was so close, I really thought Kim would've been more popular. In addition to Macarthur sponsoring that healthdestruction bill, he was the only NJ rep to vote for the tax bill. The tax bill put an end to deductions for property tax and mortgage interest. I was way below the minimum to file for those anyway, but it still pissed me off, because I saw some republican congressman saying red states were tired of subsidizing blue state high tax rates. Exqueeze me? Who is subsidizing who here? We all know net flow of federal dollars is from blue to red states. If Macarthur didn't know that, and his voters didn't know that, they must be, idk, fucking dumbasses? Wear it, snowflakes!

[SR71]

Is NC9 still up in the air? What the hell is happening there?

[erimir]

Investigation is still going on. House Democrats have indicated they won't seat Harris unless and until it concludes with him being exonerated and the outcome not being in question as a result of McCrae Dowless's activities.

Most likely it will result in a special election since it definitely looks like election fraud occurred, but who the nominees will be (will the previous nominations still stand, meaning Harris will be the GOP nominee?) and when it will occur is still not clear. I guess they have to conclude the investigation before they even initiate the new election, which still may take months. And then if there's a new primary, the whole process for the new election will also take four months or something like that.

Probably nobody's getting seated until at least the fall.

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Originally Posted by Stephen Maturin

The race for clerk of an obscure county in Kentucky ordinary wouldn't generate much interest outside the county itself. However, the clerk of Rowan County, Kentucky is grandstanding asshole Kim Davis, who became a wingnut hero in 2015 when she refused to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples after the Obergefell decision. Among other things, Davis' grandstanding cost taxpayers some $225,000.00, the attorney fees incurred by the same-sex couples who sued to get marriage licenses issued.

In yet another feel-good story from Election 2018, Rowan County voters gave Davis the stanky boot yesterday. Happy trails and fare thee well, ya piece of shit.

hello kimdavis how r u today?

KENTUCKY: Governor's Office Says Kim Davis Must Pay $225,000 To Gay Plaintiffs For "Violating Civil Rights" - Joe.My.God.

oh

[SR71]

Chalk one up for a Riplette. I'm almost tempted to do some online rubbing of noses in it, but kind of over that sort of thing.

Ocasio-Cortez: 'Won't you look at that: Amazon is coming to NYC anyway'

Remember, she was all hell no we don't need to give them a huge tax break, and took heat for that? She who lols last...