Climategate 2.0

[Jerome]

Originally Posted by Pan Narrans

Here's a tip: climate trends don't usually show over ten-year periods.

What period is correct to find a trend?

[Pan Narrans]

Climate is usually defined as the average weather over a 30-year period, so you'd need at least 30 years. How long exactly depends on the timescale of trends you're interested in.

[Jerome]

Originally Posted by Pan Narrans

Climate is usually defined as the average weather over a 30-year period, so you'd need at least 30 years. How long exactly depends on the timescale of trends you're interested in.

Then the 30's, 40's and 50's shows a cooling trend.

[Pan Narrans]

Fascinating.

[fragment]

Originally Posted by JEROME DA GNOME

Then the 30's, 40's and 50's shows a cooling trend.

Are you sure about that?



Graph from Gistemp, with 1930 - 1960 highlighted.

[Jerome]

[Gooch's dad]

Holy crap, you think that shows a "cooling trend" from 1930 through 1950? You really are a troll (not that we had any doubt about it, of course). You are apparently completely incapable of reading a graph.

[Jerome]

Ohh, that's right, the cooling trend was the 50's to the 70's.

[Jerome]

Your 30 years equals a climate trend is a joke. 30 years is weather.

[The Lone Ranger]

Originally Posted by JEROME DA GNOME

Ohh, that's right, the cooling trend was the 50's to the 70's.

Brohan et al. have made their data available online, so it's easy to graph it and analyze for trends. I used the smoothed dataset.


Here is the data from 1950 - 1980.

I had Excel calculate a line-of-best fit, and you'll note that it shows a distinct warming trend during this time period. Also, note the R2 value of 0.8036, indicating that not only was the warming trend real, it was very consistent.


For comparison, here is the data from 1950 - 1970.

Unsurprisingly, given the smaller dataset, the data are relatively more variable. Even so, there is a warming trend in this 20-year period, and a pretty consistent one.


If we graph Brohan et al.'s entire dataset and append a line-of-best fit, it indicates a pretty consistent and highly statistically significant warming trend during the past 160 years.

[Doctor X]

--J.D.

[The Lone Ranger]

Of course, if one is careful and doesn't mind preying upon the statistically illiterate, one can create the illusion of a negative trend through careful selection of data.

Note the particularly large fluctuation in the 1940s, followed by several years of relatively lower mean temperatures.

I bet I can do something with that.

Yep. Here's a plot of the data from 1930 - 1960.

It's true that if we look at this very isolated portion of the dataset, there is a very slight downward trend, due to the very large bump followed by several relatively cooler years. But look at the R2 value: 0.0057. This indicates a non-significant trend. No honest researcher would publish this restricted dataset and claim that it was indicating an actual cooling trend during this time period.

[Gonzo]

Toasty!

[Jerome]

Originally Posted by The Lone Ranger

I used the smoothed dataset.

You Hide the Decline!!!

[Jerome]

Originally Posted by The Lone Ranger

Note the particularly large fluctuation in the 1940s, followed by several years of relatively lower mean temperatures.

I bet I can do something with that.

Yep. Here's a plot of the data from 1930 - 1960.

It is Trending Down!!!!! OMG GLOBAL COOLING CAUSED BY MAN!!!!!

[Jerome]

Let me know when we reach the high temperature of 850 AD.

[The Lone Ranger]

Originally Posted by JEROME DA GNOME

You Hide the Decline!!!

The un-smoothed dataset reveals the same trends for each dataset -- I tried it.

You can easily do the same.

[Pan Narrans]

Originally Posted by JEROME DA GNOME

Your 30 years equals a climate trend is a joke. 30 years is weather.

I assume you're talking to me? Please compare what you wrote here with my original post:

Originally Posted by Pan Narrans

Climate is usually defined as the average weather over a 30-year period, so you'd need at least 30 years. How long exactly depends on the timescale of trends you're interested in.

Vote Jerome for not reading the thread and being a shit poster.

[Watser?]

The caravan leaves behind the yapping dogs in the desert of their own making and moves on.

[Doctor X]

But wait! He will go to ANOTHER forum to complain about THIS forum hoping to gain credibility. Then, eventually, he will return HERE to complain about THAT forum when they all conclude he is a Cunt.

Lather . . .

Rinse . . .

Repeat . . .

Meanwhile, it is cold outside DISPROVING GLOBAL WARMINGS!!!

--J.D.

P.S. IZ COLDER THAN YESTERDAYS!

[davidm]

Who is that masked man?



Why, it's The Lone Ranger, giving Jerome the Troll the bitchslapping he so rightly deserves!

[SR71]

Jerome, the Medieval warm period was a regional event, not global. Please try to keep up.

What the Ice Cores Tell Us - YouTube

&feature=player_embedded

Climate Denial Crock of the Week - "The Medieval...

[Angakuk]

Originally Posted by SR71

Jerome, the Medieval warm period was a regional event, not global. Please try to keep up.

P1. The Medieval Warm Period happened where we live.
P2. We are the world.
P3. We did not cause the Medieval Warm Period.
C1. Therefore, the Medieval Warm Period was an instance of global warming, and
C2. Global Warming is not anthropogenic.

[Jerome]

lmao

Nothing gets by the True Believers.

Could you present the weather station temperature data worldwide from the 1900's?

[Ari]

Still waiting for those quotes.
After all you made some big accusations.