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  #26  
Old 04-21-2006, 12:27 PM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legs
According to the stats you posted the trend for murdered children is on the decrease (true) however, this stat is based on the number of bodies found and the assumption that the thousands suspected runaways are indeed runaways.
There are two issues. The first is whether child murders are particularly common, and the second is whether there has been some "epidemic" increase in their frequency. The latter is complete non-starter in light of the statistics; setting aside the paranoid notion that child killers are near-omnipotent, guaranteeing that human remains are not discovered, an increase in murders will predictably be reflected in at least some increase in known murders.

The first claim too is unwarranted. It is without positive evidence, as you admit. No doubt there are more murders than are officially known, but the only reasonable way of estimating how many more is to extrapolate from known to unknown cases, with a margin of error. The belief that child murders are much more common than the stats show (and have been for decades) requires the assumption that the unknown cases are radically different from the known cases.

Quote:
what if they are actually murder victims? or living as a sex slave somewhere, or living with someone who has abducted them? (some kids are so young when abducted, they don't remember their real families)
As with the unknown more generally, it's easy to project one's fears onto it. But that doesn't make the "epidemic" claim warranted.
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  #27  
Old 04-21-2006, 01:05 PM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

You know what Clutch Munny? It was definately my mistake in saying
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legs
child killings are a epidemic these days. :sadcheer:
I should have said violent crimes against chlldren. More than half of the cases I follow, the victim actually survived their brutal attack.

Statistically, murders (found bodies) are down. No arguing with that.

I am not convinced it is news coverage becoming more extensive or (rephrasing) violent crimes against children are epidemic. I admit it could be my interest in following these cases on the crime boards, because I see soooo much of it, new & shocking cases every day. I'm not going to argue that this is possible.
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  #28  
Old 04-21-2006, 01:54 PM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Homicide cases are occasionally successfully prosecuted even where the victim's body has not been found. I don't see why the DoJ statistics wouldn't include them. They may be few, but it does happen.
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  #29  
Old 04-21-2006, 02:20 PM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legs
You know what Clutch Munny? It was definately my mistake in saying
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legs
child killings are a epidemic these days. :sadcheer:
I should have said violent crimes against chlldren. More than half of the cases I follow, the victim actually survived their brutal attack.

Statistically, murders (found bodies) are down. No arguing with that.

I am not convinced it is news coverage becoming more extensive or (rephrasing) violent crimes against children are epidemic. I admit it could be my interest in following these cases on the crime boards, because I see soooo much of it, new & shocking cases every day. I'm not going to argue that this is possible.
Okay. I understand that you're not convinced. It's interesting that your new claim seems to be premised on exactly the same sort of thinking that your original claim was based on. But life is short, so I'll leave it at that.
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  #30  
Old 04-21-2006, 06:33 PM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Godless Dave
www.bubbaworld.com used to be a good source for news of Oklahoma idiocy, but he put a lot of flash or activeX on the website and now it loads like shit.
You want Oklahoma idiocy? Well, why didn't ya say so. We have plenty to go around.

Life and Deatherage is my favorite Oklahoma blog.

Or .. if you prefer your idiocy undiluted, you can check out the Tulsa Weekly Wingnut

or just read anything either of our two US Senators have ever said.
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  #31  
Old 04-21-2006, 07:09 PM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Wow, I was totally unaware of the resources available to me.
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  #32  
Old 04-21-2006, 07:39 PM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

This was a hilarious microcosm of trends in American media. Oh, and Canadian too, unfortunately:

http://archives.cjr.org/year/99/1/worst.asp
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  #33  
Old 04-21-2006, 07:49 PM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Anyone who doubts how frighteningly stupid US Senator James Inhofe is should check out this url: http://www.endtime.com/03_oldsite/inhofe.htm

The original page has been taken down to protect the guilty, but if you paste that url into Google and go to their cache you'll find an interview he did with EndTime Ministries back during the Clinton Administration.

This is one of my favorite parts:

Quote:
Inhofe: I think we are in a position now where we have enough votes in Congress to override a veto. If Clinton tried to stop the deployment of a national missile defense system, I think we could override it. The current debate, as we speak, down on the floor right now is on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. I'm going down there as soon as I hang up. If we can't defend ourselves with a national missile defense system, which would kill a missile on its way over to America, let's at least keep a nuclear arsenal and test it periodically. We would be able to know that it works, and the whole world would know that as well. That way, if something should happen, we would be able to retaliate immediately.

Baxter: How long will it take to deploy an antimissile defense system? Two years?

Inhofe: If we were to start today, we could do it in about two and one-half years. However, President Clinton is stonewalling it. It depends on when we get started. An educated guess would be three and one-half years.
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  #34  
Old 04-21-2006, 09:46 PM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clutch Munny
It's interesting that your new claim seems to be premised on exactly the same sort of thinking that your original claim was based on. But life is short, so I'll leave it at that.
I would be happy to produce multiple true cases of known abductions (evidence they are not runaways) where the kids are probably dead. As you know the chances of finding a child alive decreases almost hourly after abduction.

*Statistics show the first three hours after abduction are most critical to recovering a child alive. 24 hours there is less than a 50 percent chance they are still alive and it goes down from there. - Polly Klass foundation.

Take for instance the Groene children. Their Mother , older Brother & mother's boyfriend were found murdered in their home and the two children were missing. Clear evidence that they had been abducted from the scene.

Shasta and Dillon (8 & 9 years old) would not have made the stats liv posted simply because they were missing. Dillon was indeed dead, raped, tortured, filmed and murdered by Edward Duncan within weeks of the abduction.

Shasta was spotted months later at a Denny's with the perp. If you don't have any idea what this child was subjected to, you should do some research.

There are lots of cases where it is a confirmed abduction, either by evidence at the scene or witnesses - years go by with no recovery and these kids never make the stats because no one knows their fate.

Determining that child murder rates are decreasing or down is only based on found bodies. Can anyone argue with that?

Quote:
Originally Posted by D. Scarlatti
Homicide cases are occasionally successfully prosecuted even where the victim's body has not been found. I don't see why the DoJ statistics wouldn't include them. They may be few, but it does happen
Absolutely. However, it is difficult to prosecute if you don't have the perp. Again in Shasta & Dillon's case and many others, the perp is unknown.

As an aside, to date, 256 children have been rescued or recovered after abduction with the help of the Amber Alert system.

You can have amber alerts sent to your cell phone literally within minutes of an Amber Alert Issuance in your area.

We have had 2 abduction child murders in my area in the past year or so. Holly Jones, 10 disappeared walking home and was cut up and found in suitcases in Lake Ontario and Cecila Chang, 9 who's parents tucked her in one night and she was gone in the morning. Cecila was missing for months before her body was found. I received internet amber alerts for both these kids and always watched for them when I was out. You just never know when you might be able to help. :yup: Assuming you have an interest to help.

This is just the tiniest tip of the iceberg, I could post for days non stop about abducted and missing kids, but I won't bore you. :yawn:
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  #35  
Old 04-21-2006, 11:51 PM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Granny's Gonna Getcha ~or~ Granny's Got a Gun

Oklahoma woman chases off 2 burglars from her rural Mayes County home with a rifle she pulled off a stack of loot. It wasn't even loaded.


~~~~
Side note: My brother Jim confronted and scared away a burglar last night in his friend's D.C. apartment. He said it was either the aluminum bat in one hand or the pump shotgun in the other that scared the guy off. I figure he's lying about at least one of those two items.
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  #36  
Old 04-22-2006, 12:02 AM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Legs, if you are reliant on news sources to tell you the outcome of missing or abducted children, you are getting a definitely slant on the picture. I cannot count how many times the disappearance gets news coverage, but when it turns out the kid was staying at his friend's house down the street or just walks out of the woods after a few days, it often isn't reported in the media, not in the headline articles, not in the front pages. Whether this is out of embarrassment or just not following up, as seems to be the norm in the mainstream media, I don't know. I just know there are a lot that are recovered and not reported.

Personal anecdote, since you got to do it. I ran away from home when I was 17. They had helicopters searching the canyons around the nearby lake for my car. There was a frantic search for 3 days. The 4th day they got my postcard from Colorado Springs saying I was okay, not to worry about me. I got so paranoid about people looking for me, I didn't return home for almost a month. I was welcomed with open arms. So far as I know, my disappearance made the local paper, but my return did not.
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  #37  
Old 04-22-2006, 01:10 AM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legs
We have had 2 abduction child murders in my area in the past year or so. Holly Jones, 10 disappeared walking home and was cut up and found in suitcases in Lake Ontario and Cecila Chang, 9 who's parents tucked her in one night and she was gone in the morning. Cecila was missing for months before her body was found.
I know. And many, many children died of familiar and preventable causes (especially car crashes) while the Jones and Chang cases dominated the news and weighed heavily on the minds of those inclined (or determined) to see monsters next door. Just as I already pointed out.

Quote:
This is just the tiniest tip of the iceberg, I could post for days non stop about abducted and missing kids, but I won't bore you. :yawn:
At no time have I disputed your ability to post for days.
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  #38  
Old 04-22-2006, 01:14 AM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clutch Munny
But life is short, so I'll leave it at that.
All rage, no engage. :yawn:
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  #39  
Old 04-22-2006, 01:18 AM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dingfod
Legs, if you are reliant on news sources to tell you the outcome of missing or abducted children, you are getting a definitely slant on the picture.
I probably shouldn't tell you how much I have paid for access to trial transcripts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dingfod
I cannot count how many times the disappearance gets news coverage, but when it turns out the kid was staying at his friend's house down the street or just walks out of the woods after a few days, it often isn't reported in the media, not in the headline articles, not in the front pages.
Not on the forums I frequent. We follow up, regardless of the result and we celebrate when it's good news like that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dingfod
I got so paranoid about people looking for me, I didn't return home for almost a month. I was welcomed with open arms.
Great story.
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  #40  
Old 04-22-2006, 02:07 AM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legs
Absolutely.
But ... you said the Dept. of Justice figures were based on "found bodies."

Quote:
However, it is difficult to prosecute if you don't have the perp.
What's that have to do with the DoJ figures? That's all I was talking about.

I will agree that where there is no body, and no perp, there's probably not an entry on the homicide chart. Otherwise it would be through the roof, wouldn't it!
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  #41  
Old 04-22-2006, 02:23 AM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Quote:
Originally Posted by D. Scarlatti
Quote:
Originally Posted by Legs
Absolutely.
But ... you said the Dept. of Justice figures were based on "found bodies."
'Absoutely' was in response to your statement it is possible to prosecute without a body, not to anything about stats. I was agreeing with you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by D. Scarlatti
Quote:
However, it is difficult to prosecute if you don't have the perp.
What's that have to do with the DoJ figures? That's all I was talking about.
Sorry, I just thought you meant in general.


Quote:
Originally Posted by D. Scarlatti
Otherwise it would be through the roof, wouldn't it!
Yes, that's the whole point of my argument that the stats don't take into account missing kids with fates unknown. How can we honestly say murdered children rates are dropping with such a huge unknown factor?

It also works the other way... add those stats in and you get a highly inflated # that is not accurate either.

IMO this statistic should be called "murdered people found this year"
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  #42  
Old 04-22-2006, 02:38 AM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legs
'Absoutely' was in response to your statement it is possible to prosecute without a body, not to anything about stats. I was agreeing with you.
So homicide convictions obtained in any such prosecutions would indeed be included in the DoJ figures. I just didn't understand what you were basing your claim on, your claim that the figures only included "found bodies." I'm now satisified that you agree they do, in fact, include "bodies not found." I think.
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  #43  
Old 04-22-2006, 02:42 AM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Yes, bodies not found that are ruled as homocides. I believe these are included in the stats.
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  #44  
Old 04-22-2006, 02:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legs
Yes, bodies not found that are ruled as homicides. I believe these are included in the stats.
Just out of general curiosity, why were you previously saying they weren't included?
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  #45  
Old 04-22-2006, 02:51 AM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legs
Yes, that's the whole point of my argument that the stats don't take into account missing kids with fates unknown. How can we honestly say murdered children rates are dropping with such a huge unknown factor?
This was explained to you.

Whatever the proportion of murders to discovered murders, you would need some special reason to suppose that changes in the former don't track changes in the latter. For example, you could posit a new super-breed of child murderers capable of ensuring that their victims are never found -- that would do it. But there's no reason to believe that. Or you could suppose that God is keeping the discovered murder rate constant while the actual murder rate soars, by foiling investigators, distracting dogs, and giving hikers cramps at just the right moments to avoid the discovery of human remains. But there's no reason to think that either.

In the absence of any reason to think that changes in discovered murders are significantly independent of changes in murders more generally, the rational conclusion is that a static or declining measurable murder rate reflects a static or declining murder rate.
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  #46  
Old 04-22-2006, 03:08 AM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Well yes I have seen that theory presented. I would call it a theory not an explanation. The fact of the matter is there are 1000's of missing children, some confirmed as abducted, many runaways. No one knows for sure what the true murder rate is.
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  #47  
Old 04-22-2006, 03:24 AM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legs
Well yes I have seen that theory presented. I would call it a theory not an explanation.
The "theory" is that it's rational to base beliefs on the evidence. That's all it is.

Quote:
No one knows for sure what the true murder rate is.
:wtf:

Whether or not that's true, it's simply not what I addressed. Let the true (population) murder rate be 10 times higher than the known (sample) murder rate, if that sufficiently appeals to your sense of hidden evil. The issue was whether there's any reason to believe the two rates would change independently. As in your question: "How can we honestly say murdered children rates are dropping with such a huge unknown factor?"

On this question it's sufficient to point out that no other conclusion is rational in the absence of special reason to regard sample rate changes as delusive relative to the population. You have no such reason, though -- or none that you will share. So, yes, if the sample murder rate is static, or drops in some statistically significant way, that's the best evidence one could have that the population rate is static or dropping too.
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  #48  
Old 04-22-2006, 03:35 AM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Not only that but (and I'm looking at the DoJ figures again) is there any reason to believe that it's only the under 14 contingent whose figures are unrealistically skewed downwards? Or is it the whole under 17 crowd?

Looks like the early 90s was a bad time to be a teenager, and I'm not just talking about the music.
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  #49  
Old 04-22-2006, 07:19 AM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Those figures sure did spike in the 90's and not only for murders, but for all kinds criminal activity, I can post the info tomorrow (if you are interested), I am off to bed now.
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  #50  
Old 04-22-2006, 02:49 PM
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Default Re: Only in Oklahoma...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legs
Those figures sure did spike in the 90's ...
If you accept that they spiked in the 90s, as the figures clearly reflect, why don't you accept the more recent downturn, which the figures also clearly reflect? Unless I'm misunderstanding you, not only are you disputing the downturn, you're suggesting they should reflect an increase, and not just a levelling off.
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