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Old 01-16-2019, 02:00 AM
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Default Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

The predicted flood of candidates is beginning to swell the banks, but when will it crest? Will it wash in a great candidate or wash out another great election opportunity?

You deserve a better intro to such a weighty thread topic, but hell, you deserved a better outcome to the last election.

Just off the top, I remember Liz Warren is in so far, Kirsten G. is throwing her hat in the ring today and Sherrod B is still being coy. Julian Castro... who else?

Here's the place! Kick the tires, handicap the ponies, place your bets! Grab a ringside seat.

:wannafight::sisfight::brawl::fight:

:shakedem::horseracer::unrace:

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Old 01-16-2019, 02:03 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Tulsi Gabbard needs to fuck right off now and for all time.
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Old 01-16-2019, 02:15 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

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Originally Posted by ChuckF View Post
Tulsi Gabbard needs to fuck right off now and for all time.
I didn't even Tulsi Gabbard. Yeah, she's frontin'. ChuckF, always with the esoteric knowledge. :bow:

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Old 01-16-2019, 02:24 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

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Old 01-17-2019, 08:36 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

My hope is that Tulsi Gabbard's campaign will draw the scrutiny needed to get someone good to primary her for her Congressional seat.

For that matter, someone should primary her dad too (he's in the Hawaii Senate), he sucks possibly more than her.
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Old 01-21-2019, 12:52 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Kamala Harris has announced. She gets a positive initial reaction from me, though I know very little of her. I've seen her on a few talking head gabfests and remember being favorably impressed by her conduct.
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Old 01-21-2019, 02:17 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

A president with the surname Castro might be cool.
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Old 01-23-2019, 06:23 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

I think Kamalah might has the it factor. I'm only superficially familiar but have a favorable impression. Apparently I'm not alone.

Kamala Harris ties Bernie Sanders' 24-hour fundraising record

Quote:
More money, specifically more small-dollar donors to Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., means more problems for Republicans. She outpaced the 24-hour 2015 haul of progressive superstar Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt.

Harris officially declared her candidacy for president on Monday. She raised more than a million dollars before 7:30 p.m. to finish the day with $1.5 million from 38,000 donors, her aides told Politico. That’s an average donation of $39.

Compare that cash flow to the haul reported by the insurgent Sanders campaign. He raised about the same amount — $1.5 million — but from fewer contributors, 35,000. That’s an average of $43.
So far I like her or Sherrod.
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Old 01-23-2019, 07:09 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Currently, I would order the declared candidates as...

Warren
Gillibrand
Harris
Castro
...
...
...
Gabbard

Not going to bother with Ojeda or Delaney.

Adding in some other likely/plausible candidates, and sorting into tiers:

I'm fully on board at the moment:
Warren
Gillibrand

I like them, but they have some issues I'm concerned about:
Harris (prosecutor record, need to know more about economic agenda)
Booker (charter schools, Wall Street issues)
Bill de Blasio (not sure he could win?)

Much bigger issues:
Biden* (too old, various issues with his record, generally too centrist)
Sanders (too old, I don't feel like he would be an effective leader since his colleagues don't like him and his 2016 campaign had some serious organizational issues)
Brown (I like him, but I'd need to be convinced that he is amazing to make it worth it to give up that Ohio Senate seat, because the GOP governor appoints his replacement and Ohio is red-leaning and it will be very difficult to win the seat back with a Democratic president)

Don't really know enough:
Klobuchar
Inslee

Don't seem like great choices, lacking experience or a high enough profile, so they will need to really impress me:
Castro
O'Rourke
Oprah

NOPE:
Cuomo (just putting him here for good measure, he's probably not running)
Bloomberg
Gabbard

*And with Biden, I'm only somewhat curious because he does well in polls vs. Trump now. This could just be due to name recognition and I'll be surprised if his polling advantage holds up through next year. But it is definitely relevant. If Biden can win by double digits, and Warren can only win by 6 pts, this matters, because a double digit win basically ensures Democrats take the Senate AND won't need Joe Manchin to be the 50th vote on everything. Warren has better priorities than Biden, but if you want to pass, say, DC statehood or Medicare For All, Democrats will want to have some wiggle room. Especially since even just getting rid of the filibuster so you can pass any of that will take some convincing.

But if Biden's polling advantage vs. Trump disappears, he drops down into the bottom tiers.
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Old 01-23-2019, 07:21 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by SR71 View Post
I think Kamalah might has the it factor. I'm only superficially familiar but have a favorable impression. Apparently I'm not alone.
[...]
So far I like her or Sherrod.
I like Harris as a public persona, and I think she's really smart and well qualified, but I fear she may be Clinton 3.0 in terms of big money interests, prosecuting poor people for political gains, and not prosecuting rich people. Maybe at best an Obama 2.0.

Kamala Harris, Opportunist to the Core: Launches Prez Bid on MLK Day, Since She Has to Remind People She's Black After Criminalizing Truancy, Keeping CA Prison Rolls Up to Provide Cheap Labor; Sends Tone-Deaf, Narcissistic Campaign E-mail | naked capitalism

Yves Smith is not pulling any punches on this one.

Quote:
Her lack of a commitment to homeowners, and her pliancy to big money interests, was confirmed by her failure to investigate One West Bank, ignoring a 2013 memo from attorneys in her office flagging the appearance of “widespread misconduct.” Her complacency was rewarded via One West’s former CEO, Steve Mnuchin, making Harris the recipient of his lone donation to a Democratic party Senate candidate.

Needless to say, if Harris had prosecuted Mnuchin, it’s hard to imagine he’d be Treasury Secretary now.
(emphasis mine)

Yeah, centrist Democrats are light years better than any Republican, but she's going to have to do some work to convince people she's not just another shill for big money interests.
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  #11  
Old 01-23-2019, 08:48 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

That naked capitalism site was pretty much openly celebrating when Trump won because of how much they hate Clinton. tbh I don't really have any interest in what they have to say about anything.

Which isn't to say I have no concerns about Harris.
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Old 01-23-2019, 06:50 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

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Originally Posted by erimir View Post
That naked capitalism site was pretty much openly celebrating when Trump won because of how much they hate Clinton. tbh I don't really have any interest in what they have to say about anything.

Which isn't to say I have no concerns about Harris.
I acknowledge that. I don't think that site has much liking for Trump, but they were pretty gleeful about Clinton losing. Kind of like Watser, there's such a narrow focus on one issue, the bigger picture is lost.

I still find some value from that narrow focus, but I also mostly skip over the articles in my RSS feed. The vitriol for Harris caught my eye, though, and that Mnuchin donation is going to hurt her in the primaries, I'll bet.
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  #13  
Old 01-23-2019, 07:43 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

I know it sounds like just "excuse making" but I think that "authenticity" is a little overrated in politicians.

Bernie Sanders has such a good argument for it because he's never had to appeal to any constituency except for lily-white, very liberal Vermont. Well, it's easy to be a left-wing politician in Vermont. So he has authenticity, but he doesn't have a proven track record of being able to manage a less homogeneous and moderate constituency (which the US as a whole would be). Sherrod Brown, by comparison, manages to be relatively liberal for his state but still has to make more centrist moves than Sanders. Ohio is also more diverse than Vermont. So who is more "authentic"? Who is really more liberal/left? It's hard to separate those concerns from the fact that Ohio is very different from Vermont. The naive conclusion is that Sanders is either more left than Brown, or Brown is less authentic, because if Brown is really more progressive than Sanders, his voting record is less so because of pandering to his less progressive constituency. But then that means we can't really ever support candidates who are from and can get elected in places like Ohio.

(I'd also note that on gun issues, Sanders has pandered to Vermont's more gun-friendly culture at times. And he voted for the 1994 crime bill and has pandered to "tough on crime" rhetoric in his past. So was that inauthentic, or was he authentically wrong on those issues?)

But what we really care about is how Brown would govern vs. Sanders. If Brown made some compromises in order to keep that Ohio Senate seat rather than having a Republican in it (while still being pretty liberal for an Ohio Senator), does that mean he would be less effective? Maybe his willingness to recognize when to compromise while still pushing leftward means he would actually get more done than Sanders, who would want to push left but might fail because of inflexibility (which overlaps with "authenticity") and end up achieving less.

Kirsten Gillibrand is going to be dinged for "inauthenticity" because she was in a conservative Upstate NY district and when she only moved left when she became Senator from NY (which is much more liberal than her district was). But she could've remained much more moderate than she did. I'd also note that even when she was in that conservative House seat, she supported allowing people to buy into Medicare. Andrew Cuomo has been much more centrist than her and was reelected easily. If it's purely opportunism, she has moved far more to the left than you would expect on that basis. You might expect her to moderate on issues that are unpopular nationally, but the idea that she wouldn't push left doesn't seem to match her record either.

Which, in relevance to Harris, I would say that some of her past can be explained as relating to the type of position she held. California is fairly progressive, sure, but it didn't get these shitty criminal justice laws all because of Kamala Harris and nothing to do with California voters. And a prosecutor and AG candidate would probably be held to different standards than voters would hold their Senator. The Republican only lost by 1 pt in her 2010 race for AG. So some of it can probably be explained by the politics of being a prosecutor and an AG, even in California. I do know that she declined to seek the death penalty against a cop killer as a prosecutor, where the pandering move would probably be the opposite. But I don't know that that's a good enough excuse for all of it, which is why I have concerns.

But regardless of whether it's President Harris, Gillibrand, Sanders or Brown, if the deciding votes in the Senate are Joe Manchin, Doug Jones, Mark Warner and Angus King or the like, it's going to take pressure from the left to get the outcomes the left wants. It's not enough for President Sanders to say he wants Medicare For All for it to get done. And I'd say the same on criminal justice issues.

I'm not convinced that Harris would oppose criminal justice reform. But likewise, I'm not convinced that Sanders would prioritize it - he certainly seems like he'd rather spend his political capital elsewhere. So I'm not sure how much of a difference there would end up being on those issues. But certainly Harris has more work and explaining to do on this than the other candidates.

If Harris really catches fire, and can thump Trump, having more seats in the senate is going to be more valuable than how much she wants to push personally, because the 50th senate vote is more likely to be the limiting factor than which Democrat is president (assuming it's not someone like Michael stop-and-frisk Bloomberg), particularly if our senate majority is narrow. The people who think who the president is is going to define what can get done and perhaps think it's better to have the leftmost platform that can beat Trump (even if it means only beating Trump by 3 pts) are not really paying attention to what will matter more in getting things through Congress. And the ones who dismiss most Democratic candidates as irredeemably corrupt and incapable of being pressured to the left are just promoting fatalism and voter disengagement/demoralization, which will only help the right-wing.

But anyway, I think their positions on the filibuster and DC/PR statehood will be more consequential than the specifics of their platforms in most cases, since eliminating the filibuster and adding two DC senators (and potentially two PR senators) will have more effect on what can get passed than the details of their platform. Candidates that express openness to eliminating the filibuster will get more points from me as a result.

But right now, Warren and Gillibrand are my top choices.

Last edited by erimir; 01-23-2019 at 07:54 PM.
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Old 01-23-2019, 07:45 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Hard no to Brown, not because of any of his policy stances but because he needs to stay the fuck in the Senate. We're almost certain to lose that seat should he leave it.

Also hard no to Gabbard. That is based on her stances.

So far I'm most impressed by Warren, Gillibrand, and Harris and have little preference between them; they all seem to have unique strengths between them. O'Rourke is slightly lower primarily because he has a slimmer résumé

ETA: also, glad there are so many women candidates this time. It's almost going to stop being remarkable when women run for president.
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Old 01-23-2019, 08:08 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Yeah, this is why I say, Brown would need to be so impressive that I'm convinced we can afford to lose his Ohio seat for at least four years because of how hard he will thump Trump.

We already need to win AZ/CO/ME and then at least one of AL/GA/IA/KS/MT/NC/TX (or some fluky Jones-like win elsewhere like AK or KY) or for some other GOP seat to open up due to death or resignation (not totally implausible, they do have some olds, some who might want a cabinet position, and certainly some who might have career-ending scandals). Losing Ohio's seat means we need at least two from that latter group. And I wouldn't really want to risk it unless it looks like we'll get more like four or more of them.
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Old 01-23-2019, 10:11 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Add these to Biden and O'Rourke's demerits.


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Old 01-24-2019, 01:26 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

So maybe it makes me a bad Democrat but I am just not into caring about the virtues of particular candidates beyond their ability to win. Bernie can't and is also not a Democrat. Tulsi Gabbard is a joke and, again, needs to fuck off for all time. Gillibrand probably can't. Michael Bloomberg, fuck off also.

Warren or Harris might. Biden or Beto might. Beto is also kinda cute. I think Castro is in it for something other than the top spot right now. I think Amy Klobuchar could actually scare the living shit out of Trump the same way that Nancy Pelosi does. I would be fine voting for Hickenlooper if needed. At this point I would be fine with any of them, assuming there is an election in 2020.
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Old 01-24-2019, 01:43 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

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I am just not into caring about the virtues of particular candidates beyond their ability to win.
I like "Get nuke button out of man baby's hands" as a priority.
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Old 01-26-2019, 12:34 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Bernie Sanders set to launch 2020 bid

Punchbowl, meet piss. Piss, punchbowl.
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Old 01-26-2019, 04:20 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Jay Inslee is either considering or already declared, I forget. Washington Governor? Saw him on the tube. I like his platform which is sort of green technocrat, but I don't think he has the magnetism.

I also favor running a woman this time. I still favor Harris, and my early impression is sort of Obama 2.0, as someone mentioned upstream. Not ideal for my taste, but I think she has the huge plus that she'll draw the female vote across ethnicities.
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Old 01-29-2019, 08:56 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Couldn't find a more direct link so here it is as is.


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Old 01-29-2019, 11:42 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Thoughts.
  1. First in the nation of any state.
  2. I never really expected "shreds" because that's just a clickbait word. But she delivers an awesome dump of credentials.
  3. First in the nation of any state.
  4. Hold on, "Riley Fink" cannot be a real name.
  5. First in the nation of any state.
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Old 01-29-2019, 04:14 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Hate the clickbait terms, too. Maybe it's a "gotcha" question, but it's something she needed to address quickly and decisively to keep the social-minded Democrats happy. As I've only seen a general sketch of her career, I'd have similar questions about her time as a prosecutor and Attorney General.

I think she nailed the answer.
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Old 01-29-2019, 07:05 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

She did avoid answering the question of why she defended the death penalty in California.

But I understand some of the reason she did that - she barely won her first AG race, and I wouldn't assume that most Californians oppose/opposed the death penalty, so she promised to defend it in court even though she was opposed. She stuck with her opposition to the death penalty as a prosecutor even when it wasn't convenient. Meanwhile, sticking to her campaign promise perhaps shows that even if you think a promise is pandering, she won't go back on it. Maybe.

So I don't think that's really the best attack and she could've addressed it (making a promise for political reasons and against your personal principles wouldn't endear her to some folks, I suppose, but I'm less concerned with "authenticity" than most). Of course, she'd rather talk about that other stuff anyway. Unfortunately for Mr. Fink, he did not really offer any other really specific examples, otherwise just being more vaguely "you're too tough on crime."
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Old 01-30-2019, 01:25 AM
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ChuckF ChuckF is offline
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

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Originally Posted by erimir View Post
My hope is that Tulsi Gabbard's campaign will draw the scrutiny needed to get someone good to primary her for her Congressional seat.
Tulsi Gabbard campaign in disarray - POLITICO

Quote:
Campaign manager Rania Batrice and Gabbard’s consulting firm Revolution Messaging are set to depart after this weekend’s official kickoff in Hawaii, two sources familiar with the situation told POLITICO. Gabbard is leaning on her sister, Vrindavan, to fill the void.

Meanwhile, the congresswoman is under fire back home after picking a fight with Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), and a prominent Democratic state lawmaker is already challenging Gabbard in next year’s congressional primary. That means she faces the possibility of losing the presidential race and her House seat as well.
:frolic:
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