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  #726  
Old 10-01-2018, 08:10 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Quote:
Originally Posted by lisarea View Post
It's totally understandable that we're a little susceptible to explanations, because there is a big huge WHY? hanging over the whole thing.

Why this guy? There are plenty of much more credible assholes out there who would be happy to further the wingnut agenda without blatantly lying under oath and having huge public temper tantrums, and whose accusers would be easier to dismiss. It's just such a bald faced fuck you to everyone, sticking with this guy in particular.

I'm ready to believe almost any superficially credible explanation at this point.
Start pulling at the thread of Congress holding petulant, entitled white guys accountable for lying and sexual assault and see just see where it goes.
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  #727  
Old 10-01-2018, 10:12 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Kavanaugh's behavior indicates that he is more dedicated to protecting the privileges of whites, men and elites than other options might be. Which explains why they like him - nothing that's come out would make most Republicans dislike him, even if it were true.

But as for why they don't want to abandon him, I think there are several plausible explanations*:

1. Trump doesn't like to back down. This doesn't affect whether McConnell and others would prefer to abandon him, but Trump sticking by him affects public opinion among the base and makes it more difficult for McConnell to pursue other paths.

2. While it will decrease in relevance as we move into October, they wanted to get someone on the court before the fall term began today. They already missed that deadline but he could still rule on the cases if he gets on reasonably soon. I don't know enough to know how soon it needs to be. Either way, if they think this is going to take weeks they'll be more inclined to just toss him overboard since this motivation will be moot.

3. Letting Kavanaugh go down for these allegations reflects on other Republicans who have similar, more numerous or more serious allegations against them, most prominently Donald Trump.

4. Ideological coherency matters to some Republicans, but even more important is raw power. And pushing through Kavanaugh and showing that you're powerless to stop them is part of what motivates them as well (which relates to why they like Kavanaugh and aren't bothered by the allegations, too). Or the short version: "to own the libs"

5. One of the smartest moves would be to withdraw Kavanaugh and nominate a woman or POC. A woman being part of the majority that overturns Roe v. Wade (explicitly or implicitly) would be an excellent troll move. The problem is that Trump isn't merely a cynical racist or sexist, nor is he as strategic as many of the other sincere racist misogynists in the party. He doesn't want to nominate a woman or a POC because he doesn't think they should be on the Supreme Court. Of course, this doesn't address why he doesn't withdraw Kavanaugh and nominate some other doughy-faced misogynist white man, but having fewer options for Plan B probably does make Plan A a little more appealing. (There may also be a legitimate argument that Trump's base would be dispirited by a woman or POC being nominated, even if he or she were a right-wing nutjob.)

Having specifically Kavanaugh on to rule on specific cases doesn't make much sense as a motivation, although I could see Trump thinking so because he's dumb. Kavanaugh's vote won't make the difference unless the other four conservatives on the Court are also going to rule that way. But if John Roberts is already willing to rule in favor of Trump on, say, self-pardons, then there isn't much reason to suspect that any other Republican hack wouldn't rule the same way. Particularly because Roberts is more concerned with the "legitimacy" of the Supreme Court than the other three conservatives.

Basically, if you have Roberts's vote, you'll very likely have the vote of anyone more conservative and more hacky than him, and people who are more conservative and hacky than Roberts are basically the only people who are under consideration in the first place.

Even if we presume that what they're concerned with is potentially replacing Ginsburg or Breyer and having 5 votes without needing Roberts's vote, you still need Thomas, Alito and Gorsuch. So just pick another Gorsuch or Alito! Kavanaugh isn't enough to guarantee a favorable ruling on his own.

*Some my own thoughts, but also informed by some of the links here: Diversity! - Lawyers, Guns & Money (excluding Andrew Sullivan whose take was worthless, of course)

Why Do Republicans Still Support Brett Kavanaugh? - The Atlantic

Brett Kavanaugh is a man the right can get behind (relevant to point 4)

Last edited by erimir; 10-01-2018 at 10:29 PM.
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  #728  
Old 10-01-2018, 10:12 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

(Forgot that Deadspin was Kinja and fucking Kinja destroys all forums and somehow made me post twice and figuring out how to edit these malfunctioning posts was very annoying)

Last edited by erimir; 10-01-2018 at 10:30 PM.
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  #729  
Old 10-01-2018, 10:19 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Meanwhile, today is the first Monday in October, which means SCOTUS is back in business. The Court heard oral argument in a couple of statutory interpretation cases, Weyerhaeuser Co. v. U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service and Mount Lemmon Fire Dist. v. Guido.

Looks to me like they're doing just fine with eight justices and can easily get along without the services of a certain rapey, shrieking, entitled manbaby who's waited "a lifetime" to receive his divine birthright.
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  #730  
Old 10-01-2018, 11:02 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Tomorrow they'll hold arguments in Madison v. Alabama. Now in his late 60s, the defendant in that case has been on death row in an Alabama prison for over thirty years. During that time he's sustained extensive brain damage from multiple strokes. He's also got dementia and long-term memory loss. If that weren't enough, he's also blind and can't ambulate on his own.

The issue is whether executing the guy would violate the Eighth Amendment's prohibition against cruel and unusual punishment because he doesn't understand why he's being executed.
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  #731  
Old 10-01-2018, 11:17 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

That sounds a lot like the guy Bill Clinton executed in the middle of his campaign and sex scandals. The one who lobotomized and blinded himself with his gun and said he was saving the dessert of his last meal for later.
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  #732  
Old 10-02-2018, 12:33 AM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

The parameters of the investigation into Kavanaugh have been lifted. Dr Silverman at Balloon Juice has a solid overview of why this happened, what it means, and how to interpret the FBI’s actions. Given that his background is in the intelligence services, he’s not talking out of his ass here.

Quote:
the FBI does not want to be left holding the bag on this! Regardless of the actual partisan political registrations/affiliations and/or ideological preferences of the leadership at the FBI, right now the FBI is hoping that the Democrats take at least the House, if not also the Senate, in the midterm elections next month. They are hoping this happens so that they can get some institutional top cover from Congress to both remove and check the political pressure that the President and his surrogates in Congress have been placing on the FBI because of Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation. The last thing the FBI’s leadership wants right now is to replace angry, conspiratorial Republicans running the House and/or the Senate with angry Democrats that are going to shred them over a White House and Senate majority GOP leadership constrained and therefore botched background investigation into Judge Kavanaugh. That’s why there were repeated leaks about this over the weekend. As I’ve written here repeatedly: the US Intelligence Community will leak when it is in its strategic interest to do so. These leaks were in the FBI’s strategic interest and they accomplished the objective. They got the constraints on the scope removed.
As usual with his posts, it’s worth reading the whole thing. This isn’t quite the Darkest Timeline. On a scale of 0 to 10, with 10 being the darkest, we’re at about an 8. It might be the Bad Place though.
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  #733  
Old 10-02-2018, 03:21 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch



It gets better down thread.



"Brett Judge"?
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  #734  
Old 10-02-2018, 03:35 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Why are these dudes always so damn creepy!?
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  #735  
Old 10-02-2018, 04:55 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ari View Post
Why are these dudes always so damn creepy!?
Unnatural selection.
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  #736  
Old 10-03-2018, 02:00 AM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

It isn't just that Kavanaugh is practically the poster boy for White Male Privilege, it's the incredible arrogance.

I mean, if he'd just said something along the lines of: "Look, I did some things I'm not proud of when I was young, but I'm a different man now, and I've put all of that behind me" then he'd have been confirmed by now. Instead, he acts as if a position on the Supreme Court is his birthright. And how dare anyone suggest otherwise?

And he pretends that he is -- and always has been -- purer than the driven snow, and would never have even dreamed of going to parties and getting drunk, or of treating a woman with even the slightest degree disrespect. Meanwhile, the very evidence he puts forth to "prove" his case strongly indicates that he's lying through his teeth.


As Londo Mollari would put it: "Arrogance and stupidity all in one package; how efficient of you."
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  #737  
Old 10-05-2018, 09:32 AM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Republicans praise thoroughness of blank piece of paper with "Kavanaugh FBI Investigation" written on it - The Beaverton
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  #738  
Old 10-05-2018, 11:58 AM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

It would be a whitewash (:fry:) except they aren't covering anything up, they're just flat out ignoring it.
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  #739  
Old 10-05-2018, 10:36 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Well looks like the final vote will probably match the cloture vote, unless Avenatti actually has some evidence and a plan better than "get my face on TV".

Avenatti is a pretty good example of how proclaiming that Democrats need to be "fighters" and substitute passion for an actual plan doesn't actually do anything. What did Avenatti get for Democrats? Nothing except create a GOP talking point about a porn lawyer with uncorroborated allegations. Would've been better off with just Ford and Ramirez, or at minimum with Swetnick having a different lawyer.

But Murkowski being a no vote while Collins is a yes doesn't surprise me. She's more independent and has already won reelection twice without the wingnut base (lost the GOP nomination in 2010 and won as a write in, the Libertarian won 30% of the vote in 2016, which probably represented the most conservative third of the electorate). Manchin is polling almost 10 pts ahead of his GOP opponent, his vote doesn't make the difference between confirmation or not and he's protecting his reelection chances. But I'm sure he will be used as evidence that Democrats are worthless (1 out of 49) and ignore that red state Dems in Alabama, Indiana, Missouri, Montana and North Dakota all voted no. (And that's an especially risky vote for Donnelly and Heitkamp).

Fact is that Collins always wanted to vote yes and Kavanaugh was willing to offer the obvious bullshit to let her pretend to be an idiot and not know how he'd rule on abortion. And Flake was always a flake. I don't know what more could be done if hearing the pained pleas of rape survivors and being unable to even look them in the face wasn't enough for Flake. That's at least evidence that he isn't completely shameless. Which is probably why he's retiring. Too ashamed to actually go whole hog on Trump, but not so ashamed he won't vote for whatever Trump wants.

But there was always one neat trick that would allow 49 Democrats to beat 51 Republicans (or 50 and VP Pence) that is never specified but definitely exists (and how dare you ask me to explain what it is).
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  #740  
Old 10-05-2018, 10:42 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Susan Rice just tweeted that she is interested in running against Collins in Maine.
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  #741  
Old 10-05-2018, 10:49 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Steve Schmidt just tweeted that Kavanaugh's appointment "will shatter the institutional integrity of the Court and eviscerate standards and expectations for both honesty and non partisanship in Judicial nominees" but the :ff: is to blame for my loss of faith in that process 10 yrs ago.
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  #742  
Old 10-06-2018, 08:31 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Siri? Show me party over country.

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  #743  
Old 10-06-2018, 10:16 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Quote:
Originally Posted by erimir View Post
Well looks like the final vote will probably match the cloture vote, unless Avenatti actually has some evidence and a plan better than "get my face on TV".

Avenatti is a pretty good example of how proclaiming that Democrats need to be "fighters" and substitute passion for an actual plan doesn't actually do anything. What did Avenatti get for Democrats? Nothing except create a GOP talking point about a porn lawyer with uncorroborated allegations. Would've been better off with just Ford and Ramirez, or at minimum with Swetnick having a different lawyer.
To clarify, I don't think Avenatti made much of a difference in general. A talking point is just a talking point. Collins would've just said slightly different bullshit if not for Avenatti.

But he certainly didn't make Kavanaugh's confirmation any harder.

Anyway, Democrats should definitely continue investigating Kavanaugh when they get the House (and/or Senate).

I've heard there have been allegations of sexual harassment against Thomas from while he was on the Supreme Court as well. They should investigate that too.

The misogyny of the GOP shouldn't be allowed to be a quiet secret. The misogyny underlying their attack on reproductive rights when they overturn Roe v. Wade should be explicit.

(And Democrats should toss any abusers on their side under the bus too. Getting rid of Franken was the right move, and Ted Kennedy's shitty behavior, and not just Chappaquiddick, should not be excused.)
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  #744  
Old 10-07-2018, 01:40 AM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Thrad of catharsis:


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  #745  
Old 10-07-2018, 01:40 AM
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:post: :post:
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Old 10-07-2018, 02:13 AM
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  #747  
Old 10-07-2018, 11:25 PM
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Canadians thankful they can't name single Canadian Supreme Court Justice - The Beaverton
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  #748  
Old 10-18-2018, 08:49 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

I am, of course, SHOCKED to discover that Chuck Schumer and the Senate Dems got rolled yet again. And until now I was blissfully unaware that:

Quote:
Senate Republicans have so far used their narrow majority to confirm 29 appeals court judges nominated by Mr. Trump, far more than any other president since the creation of the regional circuit court system in 1891.
Since there's no scenario that passes the straight face test under which the Dems retake the Senate this year, the horseshit will keep flowing for at least another two years.
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Old 10-19-2018, 08:52 PM
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:sadcheer:
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Old 10-19-2018, 10:23 PM
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Default Re: SCOTAL Itch

Honestly, the Right's willingness to so flagrantly abuse the system is only a compounding factor - we'd still have a problem even if they were relatively scrupulous, because they pay attention to the smaller races and put real effort into locking them down. They care about the lower courts and the state legislatures and the god damn school boards for crying out loud. The Dems, meanwhile, are lucky if they manage to all get facing in the same direction every four years, if the Presidential candidate is sufficiently tingle-inducing.

Of course, the fact that the Right has no scruples makes all of this much, much worse.
:sigh:
I don't know if I've got anything but raw cynicism left. Maybe the midterms will go okay, but I can't even muster much hope for that.
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