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  #551  
Old 03-12-2015, 05:27 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Quote:
Originally Posted by godfry n. glad View Post
It seems to me that the more than 14% of those infected (more, if we assume that some of the unknown status included vaccinated) is way beyond the claims of the vaccine manufacturer's stated expectation of failure in 5% of those with one dose, and 1% of those with two doses. The vaccine failure rate is running three times that. This distinctly compromises the entire discussion of 'herd immunity' with the MMR II vaccine. Although, given the exceedingly low number of infected so far, the 'herd immunity' is fairly decent.

When compared to the morbidity and mortality risks to children of firearms in the home, or from avoidable medical mistakes, I wonder at the reason for the frenzy and hate being generated by this most recent outbreak. Indeed, the numbers for both of those are not anywhere near as available in a timely and clear fashion as are measles statistics. I'd even be willing to go out on a limb and suggest that PhARMA is manipulating the media to demonize 'anti-vaxxers' in preparation for Merck being called on the carpet about the claims of fraud, market manipulation and chicanery with regards the MMR II. It's an attempt to shift the blame.
It seems to me that you're making a classic mistake with regards to statistics.

You're assuming that 14% of the victims being vaccinated means the failure rate is 14%, but you failed to take into account two other things:

1. How many people are vaccinated vs. unvaccinated (vs. got two shots, or three, or whatever)?

If the proportion of people who are unvaccinated is only 1%, yet they account for the majority of the measles infections, then it would actually show that the vaccine is extremely effective. You can recognize that, right?

On the other hand, if only 14% of the population were vaccinated, and 14% of the infections were in vaccinated patients, then it would show that the vaccine did nothing at all.

2. As a related concept, how many people were exposed to measles who were then subsequently not infected?

If there were hundreds of other vaccinated people who were exposed to measles yet didn't catch it, that shows it was quite effective. If there were only a small number of unvaccinated people who were exposed yet didn't catch it, that would also be a point in favor of vaccines.

Since we can't really know those numbers, we would use the overall prevalence of vaccination (i.e. what I'm talking about with point 1) to help estimate that.

But if, as you say, 85% of the population is vaccinated, but they only account for 14% of the victims, I'm kind of confused how you think this is an argument against vaccines in any way.

In fact, based on the numbers of 85% vaccination rate, 7% vaccination failure rate and 90% infection rate for unvaccinated, you would expect that 30% of those infected would be vaccinated.

If you want me to show my work, then here:


tl;dr: Learn some fucking statistics.
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  #552  
Old 03-16-2015, 12:03 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

BBC News - Germany court orders measles sceptic to pay 100,000 euros
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  #553  
Old 05-09-2015, 07:20 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Sadly, Liberia is currently providing a graphic example of how important immunization can be. With the recent ebola epidemic, immunization against measles, whooping cough, and other common diseases all but stopped. What has been the result?

Well, according to the WHO, the total number of confirmed measles cases in Liberia during 2013 and 2014? Zero. But Liberia has seen more than 500 confirmed cases of measles during just the first quarter of 2015.

Similarly, whooping cough -- which had been so rare that most Liberian health workers had reportedly never even seen a case -- has also made a huge comeback. Some epidemiologists are warning that measles and other formerly-rare, vaccine-preventable diseases may actually kill more people in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone than the ebola epidemic did.
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  #554  
Old 05-10-2015, 04:33 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Hi, TLR, good to see you posting again.

I think continuing immunization programs after a disease has supposedly been eradicated would be a good idea. Do you agree?
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  #555  
Old 05-11-2015, 03:01 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Yeah, it's not like anybody keeps archives of these things... :noid: ...but it pays to be on the safe side.
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  #556  
Old 05-11-2015, 07:16 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Ranger View Post
Sadly, Liberia is currently providing a graphic example of how important immunization can be. With the recent ebola epidemic, immunization against measles, whooping cough, and other common diseases all but stopped. What has been the result?

Well, according to the WHO, the total number of confirmed measles cases in Liberia during 2013 and 2014? Zero. But Liberia has seen more than 500 confirmed cases of measles during just the first quarter of 2015.

Similarly, whooping cough -- which had been so rare that most Liberian health workers had reportedly never even seen a case -- has also made a huge comeback. Some epidemiologists are warning that measles and other formerly-rare, vaccine-preventable diseases may actually kill more people in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone than the ebola epidemic did.
TLR, May I repost this over on "Center for Inquiry" forum where Peacegirl has started an anti-vax thread?
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  #557  
Old 05-11-2015, 08:51 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

By all means, feel free to re-post it. I'm sure peacegirl will have a carefully-reasoned, well-documented, and thoroughly-researched response.

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Originally Posted by Dingfod View Post
I think continuing immunization programs after a disease has supposedly been eradicated would be a good idea. Do you agree?
For some time at least, yes. It's well-documented that infectious diseases can "hide" for some time, because not everyone who gets sick reports it. And someone may get a low-grade infection and quickly fight it off without even realizing that they'd just had a brush with something serious like measles.

In any event, as the current situation in Liberia and Sierra Leone demonstrates, diseases that were thought to have been all but eliminated can come roaring back if and when vaccination programs are halted.


That having been said, if the diseases can be knocked down to such low levels that it cannot effectively spread through the population because of high vaccination levels, and if this continues long-enough, then the disease should die out over time.

If there's no outside source, that is.

Let's say that an aggressive vaccination program has completely eliminated a particular disease in the U.S. After a few decades during which there are no detected cases of that disease in the country, we could be reasonably sure that the disease has been eliminated from the U.S. population. Great! Since there's presumably no need to continue doing so, we stop vaccinating against that disease.

And so, after a few decades, you've got millions of Americans who are vulnerable to that disease -- either because they've never been vaccinated or because their last vaccination was so long ago that their antibody titer has dropped to the point that they're no longer resistant to the disease.

The moment an infected individual from a country where the disease has not been eliminated boards a plane bound for the U.S., we've got a problem ...



That having been said, I doubt there's any reason to vaccinate against diseases like smallpox that have essentially been eliminated from the human population. I'd still keep samples just in case, though. And some diseases that most of us tend to think have been eliminated have not. Polio, for example.

There are still occasional outbreaks of polio in places like India, and the disease is still being transmitted from unvaccinated person to unvaccinated person in Pakistan, Nigeria, and Afghanistan. As such, it seems to me that it's a good idea to continue vaccinating U.S. children against polio, since it could be catastrophic if an infected person were to bring polio into a large population of people who had never been vaccinated against it.
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  #558  
Old 05-12-2015, 12:35 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Has she pulled out the "rates of cancer and epilepsy and other such conditions have increased dramatically since we started immunizing children" claim yet? That one always comes out sooner or later.

The reasons are very, very simple. First, we have much better detection and diagnostic methods available today than we did a few decades or so in the past. So of course more kids are being diagnosed with autism (for example) nowadays, instead of just being written off as "mentally handicapped" and forgotten about, as was routinely the case not so long ago.

Second, the reason why rates of cancer (for example) have risen is precisely because we've gotten so good at detecting and treating -- or preventing -- so many of the other conditions that used to get you first. In other words, the fact that more people are dying of cancer than they did back in the "good old days" is good news, because it means that people are living long-enough to die of cancer, instead of all the other things that used to routinely kill people before they got old-enough that cancer was likely to be an issue.
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  #559  
Old 05-12-2015, 01:15 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

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Yeah, it's not like anybody keeps archives of these things... :noid: ...but it pays to be on the safe side.
Just in case you're not being facetious, I believe the CDC keeps samples of the various disease causing microbes for research.
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Old 05-12-2015, 01:36 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

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Quote:
Originally Posted by godfry n. glad View Post
Yeah, it's not like anybody keeps archives of these things... :noid: ...but it pays to be on the safe side.
Just in case you're not being facetious, I believe the CDC keeps samples of the various disease causing microbes for research.
I was not being facetious, but snarky. I'm not sure what CDC keeps on hand, but the possibility of 'weaponizing' infectious diseases remains.

And, on the other side of the issue, I understand that glioblastomas (horrific brain tumors) are being experimentally treated using polio.

I understand that the Rocky Mountain Laboratories in Hamilton, Montana, has quite an extensive collection of virulent infectious diseases on repository.
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Old 05-12-2015, 06:56 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Yup. That's a subject of serious debate in the scientific/medical community.

Some argue that we should preserve examples of infectious diseases such as smallpox for study -- even if those diseases are "extinct" in the human population. There are various cited reasons. Some argue that we should study them in order to broaden our knowledge base in order to better deal with similar diseases. Some argue that study of these disease-causing organisms could potentially lead to beneficial uses -- for instance, using the polio virus (which kills infected neural tissues) to treat certain types of brain tumors, as mentioned.

And there's always the possibility that a diseases we thought was extinct ... isn't. For instance, it's entirely possible -- however unlikely -- that smallpox survives in some small, more or less isolated human populations. If so, the disease could conceivably reappear within the larger population at some point in the future.


The other side of the argument is that we should destroy all samples of smallpox and the like. After all, if biotech-savvy terrorists were to get their hands on samples of the smallpox virus and weaponize it ... well, that would be bad.
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  #562  
Old 05-12-2015, 07:45 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Indeed we are finding more and more viruses that have dormant phases, so it's quite possible the virus can still be around decades after the last case of symptoms.

While viruses seem pretty basic, they've still had billions of years to evolve along with their hosts so I don't doubt they have some survival tricks up their sleeves.

The magic in vaccines isn't their existence, that we just copied from nature, but our ability to artificially extend their use and life even when the infection has died down to make sure it's gone.
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  #563  
Old 05-12-2015, 07:41 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Some material about peacegirl's latest at CFI for those participating
Freethought Forum - View Single Post - A revolution in thought
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Old 05-12-2015, 10:46 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Apparently, peacegirl is claiming that if you get measles or chicken pox when young, you'll be forevermore immune.


Anyone who insists that a one-time exposure to a disease grants you lifetime immunity to it has conclusively demonstrated that they understand nothing about how the immune system functions.
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  #565  
Old 05-12-2015, 10:56 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

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Apparently, peacegirl is claiming that if you get measles or chicken pox when young, you'll be forevermore immune.


Anyone who insists that a one-time exposure to a disease grants you lifetime immunity to it has conclusively demonstrated that they understand nothing about how the immune system functions.
Then I don't know how the immune system functions because I had measles, mumps, chickenpox, and rubella as a child...before vaccines were available.

Consequently, I was never required by any medico to be vaccinated for those diseases, reputedly because my affliction imparted a lifetime immunity to subsequent infection. Or, such is what I've been led to believe by my long string of physicians since I was 12.

I note that I'm not the only one operating under this impression, as Dingfod, in the same age cohort as I, seems to think the same.

So, where is this wrong?
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Old 05-12-2015, 11:15 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Lifetime immunity? No. Resistance? Yes.

The T- and B-lymphocytes that allow us to fight off infections are not immortal. The longer it has been since you were last exposed to an infectious agent, the fewer surviving immune cells you have that can defend you against it.


The "advantage" of getting a disease like chicken pox or measles when you're young is that you'll produce so many T- and B-lymphocytes against it that you'll be resistant to that disease for life. But if it has been -- say -- 30 or 40 years since you were last exposed to the pathogen, then the chances are excellent that if you happen to encounter an infected and contagious individual then you'll get sick as well. Fortunately, since you still have T- and B-cells that can defend you, you probably won't get very sick.


That's one "disadvantage" to vaccination; since vaccination [hopefully] doesn't trigger a full-on infection, the vaccinated person doesn't produce as many protective lymphocytes as would a person who came down with the disease "naturally." Which is why booster immunizations are required.

It's also why many physicians urge that if it has been a few decades since your last vaccination, it's not necessarily a bad idea to get a booster, since (if you haven't been exposed to the disease-causing organism since your last vaccination) your resistance to the disease is now a lot lower than it was soon after your vaccination. Similarly, some physicians urge older patients to receive booster shots even if they had the disease as children.


Maybe I'm being nit-picky, I suppose, but there's an important difference between lifetime resistance and lifetime immunity. I mention this in part because I've known of more than one person who has said, "Oh, I had chicken pox as a child; I can't get it again" and then received a nasty surprise upon being exposed to an infectious person.
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  #567  
Old 05-12-2015, 11:26 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Old science mostly.
It's all a lot more dynamic than we thought.

A lot of old medicine revolve around anecdotal reports, once things started to get tracked we discovered immunity wasn't an on or off thing and that it could fade over time.
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Old 05-12-2015, 11:32 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

I should point out, by the way, that I was certainly taught that getting a disease when you're young makes you immune for life. And many physicians -- who should know better -- still say this.


The good news is that if you've had a full-blown case of measles you should have produced so many antibodies and lymphocytes against it that your chances of getting another full-blown infection are virtually nonexistent. At worst, you might get a fever for a day or two, should you happen to encounter an infectious individual. And in the case of measles, of course, you're so unlikely to meet an infectious individual nowadays (at least here in the U.S.) that it's perfectly accurate to say that "if you were infected in the past, your chances of ever getting it again are essentially zero." That's not quite the same as saying "you're immune for life," but it's probably close-enough for most people.
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Old 05-13-2015, 12:00 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Physicians being lax about their knowledge base regarding vaccines and their use is no surprise to me. I've been nattering on about the whole influenza vaccination program since 2009, yet even my employer, a major health sciences university, still flies in the face of 'Evidence-Based Medicine' by urging mass inoculation of caregiver staff and then allows inoculated staff to go unmasked during close patient contact, even when unvaccinated staff are required to mask up.

Few physicians seem aware of vaccine failure, either. The prevailing attitude is that if you get the vaccine, you'll be protected. This is patently not true. "Informed consent" seems to suffer greatly with vaccine administration, too.

There's evidence based medicine and there is eminence-based medicine. I believe the latter still largely rules the profession.
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Old 05-13-2015, 02:49 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

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A lot of old medicine revolve around anecdotal reports
Where did you hear that?
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Old 05-13-2015, 06:07 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

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Originally Posted by The Lone Ranger View Post
I should point out, by the way, that I was certainly taught that getting a disease when you're young makes you immune for life. And many physicians -- who should know better -- still say this.


The good news is that if you've had a full-blown case of measles you should have produced so many antibodies and lymphocytes against it that your chances of getting another full-blown infection are virtually nonexistent. At worst, you might get a fever for a day or two, should you happen to encounter an infectious individual. And in the case of measles, of course, you're so unlikely to meet an infectious individual nowadays (at least here in the U.S.) that it's perfectly accurate to say that "if you were infected in the past, your chances of ever getting it again are essentially zero." That's not quite the same as saying "you're immune for life," but it's probably close-enough for most people.

So, for most intents and purposes, infection with measles as a child would effectively protect you from subsequent infection in a society which has an ~85% MMR vaccination rate. It's close enough to life-time immunity for me.

I note that as of May 1, the reported cases of measles infections numbers 169 in 5 outbreaks, at least according to CDC reports. Only one of those outbreaks was associated with the Disneyland infection, which I believe CDC accounts for 147 of those reported cases. There have been no reports of associated morbidity or mortality with those reported infections.

Evidently, the vector was an international traveler who had probably been infected in the Philippines, where the virus runs rampant, and subsequently flew to the US and visited Disneyland, where vaccinated and unvaccinated US residents were exposed and infected.

Given that the the media flap seems to have abated and the spread of the infection grinding to a slow halt at what I deem an exceedingly small number of infected, given the number of exposed, I'd think that the public health officials should be congratulating each other and pointing out the success of maintaining herd immunity. Given the vituperative nature of the vaccine proponents in the 'debate' which followed the reports of the Disneyland outbreak, I'm really quite happy the US did not nuke Manila, nor impose public garment markers for unvaccinated Americans to be readily identified and spat upon.
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  #572  
Old 05-15-2015, 02:17 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

I remembered reading this (possibly here but I can't remember), and thought it might help explain at least some calls to the vaccine reaction line

Having an answer: Autistic-like condition also NOT caused by vaccines | Doubtful News
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Cossolotto, who spent hours online desperately seeking answers, found the vaccine hypothesis persuasive, particularly after doctors failed to offer another explanation. The belated discovery of what was wrong with her daughter (Dravet Syndrome) would upend Cossolotto’s long-held views and lead to major improvements in Michaela’s life.
Of course, nobody pays the medical bills if there is an unrelated underlying cause, so parents have an incentive to stop looking when there is any possible correlation to the vaccine
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Old 05-15-2015, 06:20 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

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Originally Posted by LadyShea View Post
I remembered reading this (possibly here but I can't remember), and thought it might help explain at least some calls to the vaccine reaction line

Having an answer: Autistic-like condition also NOT caused by vaccines | Doubtful News
Quote:
Cossolotto, who spent hours online desperately seeking answers, found the vaccine hypothesis persuasive, particularly after doctors failed to offer another explanation. The belated discovery of what was wrong with her daughter (Dravet Syndrome) would upend Cossolotto’s long-held views and lead to major improvements in Michaela’s life.
Of course, nobody pays the medical bills if there is an unrelated underlying cause, so parents have an incentive to stop looking when there is any possible correlation to the vaccine
That is not my understanding, having read information on the resolution of the Hannah Poling case. Indeed, the 'unrelated underlying cause' was described as some mitochondrial disorder. She was adjudged to have had a vaccine injury which, because of that existing condition, engendered a neuropathy event which left her with 'autism-like symptoms'. After the resolution of that case, CDC Director Dr. Julie Gerberding stridently announced to the world that, "Vaccines do not cause autism," and the troops have religiously repeated it ever since...particularly because it probably served her well as an interview for her present job as Merck's director of vaccine development.

To me that sounds like, "It looks like a duck; it walks like a duck; it sounds like a duck; it shits like a duck; but it's not a duck."

The VICP paid out some $1.5 million to the Polings for the vaccine injury to their daughter.

So far as I know, nobody administering vaccines even checks for the mitochondrial disorder which was designated as a culprit in Hannah Poling's case, despite the fact that Dr. Jon Poling, Hannah's father and a genetic research scientist, noted that anywhere from 5% to 15% of the child population can display the disorder his daughter had. No preventive followup. That sounds like bad science and lack of due diligence by the medical community in the administration of invasive medical substances. From my view, this is what becomes of providing blanket immunity from responsibility for vaccine manufacturers, and those who administer the vaccines, in the event of any adverse reaction arising from vaccination. Slapdash and callous medicine.
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Old 05-16-2015, 02:01 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

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Testing for mitochondrial disorders is notoriously difficult in part because the field is young and misdiagnoses are common. However, identifying dysfunctional mitochondria in autism and mitochondrial disorders is an area where Autism Speaks has invested in a High Risk, High Impact grant from Autism Speaks awarded to expert clinicians and researchers investigating mitochondrial disorders at University of California at Irvine and University of California, San Diego. Through research and partnership with the UMDF (read story about our recent joint symposium), we hope to shed more light on “mitochondrial autism,” including how it is identified and how best to treat it.
Hannah Poling Court Case – Some Considerations | Autism Speaks Official Blog

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One thing that has to be understood about the VCIP is that it was created in response to fears that vaccine manufacturers would abandon the vaccine business due to liability concerns (a legitimate fear) and that it designed to compensate any injury that could be attributed to vaccines, with a standard of evidence that is a legal, not a scientific standard that’s been likened to “50% and a feather.” These two points are both very important to remember when you hear vaccine opponents trumpeting the Poling case as “proof” of vaccines causing autism.
The Hannah Poling case and the rebranding of autism by antivaccinationists as a mitochondrial disorder « Science-Based Medicine

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More and more, you can see the terms encephalopathy, autism, and vaccines being put together.

Not because any real link has been found, but rather because encephalopathy is covered by the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP).
Dravet Syndrome - An Alternative Explanation for Vaccine Encephalopathy
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  #575  
Old 05-16-2015, 05:14 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

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Originally Posted by LadyShea View Post

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One thing that has to be understood about the VCIP is that it was created in response to fears that vaccine manufacturers would abandon the vaccine business due to liability concerns (a legitimate fear) and that it designed to compensate any injury that could be attributed to vaccines, with a standard of evidence that is a legal, not a scientific standard that’s been likened to “50% and a feather.” These two points are both very important to remember when you hear vaccine opponents trumpeting the Poling case as “proof” of vaccines causing autism.
The Hannah Poling case and the rebranding of autism by antivaccinationists as a mitochondrial disorder « Science-Based Medicine
Thanks. My question in this whole thing is if the pharmaceutical industry reacted in such an irresponsible manner, why was the entire vaccine process not nationalized?
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