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  #301  
Old 10-02-2019, 08:07 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Fortunately, they were able to fix the problem with stents rather that cracking open his chest like they did with me back in '08. You're right, though; public perception-wise, this is the death knell for Bernie's campaign.
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  #302  
Old 10-02-2019, 09:03 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

I think if he makes a good recovery, he's still in the hunt. A good recovery is not a given though.

I think the betting sites are a bit high on Warren and a bit low on Sanders and Biden (and probably a bit low on Harris, who still has some arguments in her favor). But I agree with the order of Warren > Biden > Sanders.

The trendlines for Warren are positive, and the polls are showing her nipping at Biden's heels nationally. Beyond the top-line numbers, where Biden still has a clear (if shrinking) lead, Warren has been consistently getting the best numbers on other questions:
-net favorability (esp: she has the lowest unfavorables)
-what percent of Democratic primary voters are considering her
-what % have her as second choice
-what % would be happy with her as nominee vs. unhappy,

Which suggests she has the most potential to grow, and unlike Biden, there isn't much reason to suspect her support is based on her being "electable" but not the voter's favorite. Electability voters will abandon you if you start to seem like a loser, as could happen if you, say, lose Iowa and New Hampshire, which seems very possible for Biden. So I think it makes sense to think she has a better chance than Biden, but I don't think it's 50% as the betting sites do.

In the meantime, I guess a danger for Sanders is that the portion of his supporters who are not die-hards switch to Warren thinking she's now the more reliable choice*, giving her the momentum to start racking up endorsements from progressive leaders and orgs that were holding back because they didn't want to pick sides between the two, and rolling from there.

*Some might switch to Biden as well, as there's a bit of overlap there. But if age-related health issues are the reason you're switching, you might be less inclined to go for Biden/if you're not worried about Biden's age, you'll be less likely to abandon Bernie so quickly over this.
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  #303  
Old 10-02-2019, 09:41 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

DRAIN THE ARTERIES!
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  #304  
Old 10-02-2019, 09:45 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Bernie Sanders had surgery due to blockage in an artery Tuesday night, and has cancelled appearances for the next few days.
Quote:
Sanders' campaign confirmed to multiple reporters that, at a campaign event on Tuesday, the senator started experiencing chest discomfort. This led him to undergo medical evaluations at an undisclosed location, where doctors found a blockage in one artery.

He underwent a procedure to place two stents, tubular supports placed in a blood vessel, canal or duct meant to relieve obstructions, which his campaign said were successfully inserted. As of Wednesday when the statement was released, Sanders was in "good spirits" and having conversations, according to the campaign.
An interesting analysis {warning right-wing site}of ABC's total coverage time of Democratic candidates from Jan 1 to Aug 31 2019: Joe Biden- 68 minutes. Elizabeth Warren- 12 minutes. Bernie Sanders- 7 minutes. Pete Buttigieg- 7 minutes. Jay Inslee- 4 seconds. Andrew Yang-2 seconds.

Third quarter fundraising:
Sanders: $25.3 million, 1.4 million donations, average contribution $18, primary profession teacher.
Buttigieg: $19.1 million, 182k new donors, average contribution $32.
Harris: $11.6 million, average contribution $34.
Yang: $10 million, average contribution $30.
Booker: $6 million.

Warren and Biden are among a number of candidates who have not yet disclosed.

MSNBC Keeping up the tradition of shitting on Bernie and supporters of Bernie: Tisch Sussman, formerly of the Center for American Progress (heavily tied to Clinton), whose father is billionaire hedge fund manager and major democratic donor Donald Sussman, smeared Bernie Sanders recently in doing the old "I overheard someone say" that if you're still supporting Sanders and not Warren right now, then you're probably sexist.
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  #305  
Old 10-02-2019, 09:56 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephen Maturin View Post
Fortunately, they were able to fix the problem with stents rather that cracking open his chest like they did with me back in '08. You're right, though; public perception-wise, this is the death knell for Bernie's campaign.
Obviously I am biased and invested, but brother I'm going to say that call regarding public perception is premature. For Bernie supporters it's definitely not done, and for Centrist Democrats, it was always dead on arrival; for mainstream media this might be played that way but it is waaaay early to call and Bernie has a ton of surrogates and people to shore up the next few days.

Long-distance runner.
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  #306  
Old 10-02-2019, 10:23 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

On the other hand, all of the coverage that was "is he too old to be president?" has focused on Biden's mental acuity, and Bernie wasn't part of that discussion as much, because he seems sharper than Biden and hasn't had any prominent health issues.

In a way, this could be bad for Biden too, if the media decides it's finally time for the "are they too old?" discussion. Which now that they have a talking point for Sanders too, they might be more inclined to do (because, yes, the media has been more friendly to Biden than Sanders).
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  #307  
Old 10-02-2019, 10:59 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by chunksmediocrites View Post
Obviously I am biased and invested, but brother I'm going to say that call regarding public perception is premature.
And you may well be right about that, chunks. As erimir points out, Biden (not Sanders) has been the poster boy for de Gaulle's "Old age is a shipwreck" adage and no one is questioning Sanders' mental acuity, including now.

Yesterday the Sanders campaign announced a $1.3 million ad buy in Iowa, but today the ad buy is off. The campaign's calling it a postponement rather than a cancellation, and it's entirely possible that it's just a change in campaign strategy unrelated to the health scare. Whatever it means, here's hoping Sanders is up on his feet soon.
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  #308  
Old 10-03-2019, 06:02 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

The die hard Bernie or Bust fans proponents would want to elect Bernie's corpse before anyone else.
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  #309  
Old 10-03-2019, 05:50 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

I saw that movie!

Biden needs to drop out. Why? Dynasties are trouble. There's always something trailing along like a cat with a dingleberry waiting to fall on the carpet. The thing with Ukraine is that, even if nothing illegal happened, Hunter Biden had no experience or qualification to serve on the board of Burisma, the gas company. He was trading on his family name to lend Burisma some kind of legitimacy by association. Anywho, Joe is too old and gauging his limp response to Trumpleoompah's attacks on the matter, he's not up to the fight. Get out of the way, Joe!
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  #310  
Old 10-03-2019, 08:25 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Hunter Biden is a lawyer, and being on a corporate board doesn't necessarily require intensive qualifications in that industry. I'd say he still had no business being there, given his lack of experience with/knowledge of natural gas, the energy industry, Ukraine/Eastern Europe, or international business generally. But it's not like you have to be a drilling engineer. If he'd had previous experience in any of those areas, it would be more defensible. As it is, he was a lawyer with a famous name, and it was almost certainly the name they were interested in.

But there doesn't appear to be anything to the claims that Joe Biden did anything wrong. Even if he had told his son not to do it, he couldn't force him not to. And the investigation didn't concern the time when Hunter Biden was working there, and was closed before the prosecutor was fired (multiple problems for the timeline).

Although I would support tougher ethics rules around such things - for example, if your relative works for (or owns their own business) in an area where there could be concerns, there should be more scrutiny of your actions and communications, and perhaps a duty to recuse in certain situations. Your children can't be prohibited from working there, but as a public servant, you are held to a higher standard.

By contrast, it seems that Chris Heinz (yes, of that Heinz, as in Teresa Heinz's son, meaning John Kerry's stepson) thought that the appearance of conflicts of interest, among other things, made working with Burisma a bad idea, and ended his business partnership with Hunter over it. That makes the optics even worse, certainly it makes Hunter Biden look bad at least.

The question I'd have for Joe Biden is - did he think there was anything sketchy about Hunter taking that job? Did he think Hunter earned that job, or did he just get it off the basis of his name? Biden can't control his son, but he could at least show awareness that Hunter is getting things based off the Biden name, and a concern for ensuring that this doesn't influence government (and providing the transparency to assure the public).

On the other hand, I think it's kind of ridiculous we're talking about this (which is a real issue) while Trump's children jet around the world working for DADDY'S MONEY, INC trying to do business deals in foreign countries. If the media wants to say that, yes, Hunter Biden was doing something sketchy, they need to scrutinize Trump's children, who do far more of this, are more directly nepotistic, and by working directly for Trump's business, create far more of a conflict of interest, since their deals benefit Trump's bank account directly.
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  #311  
Old 10-03-2019, 11:31 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by erimir View Post
the appearance of conflicts of interest
This is really important, public trust relies on it. Recusal is best, but at least pro-active transparency. Wrt Biden and Ukraine it was kind of silly of him to not recuse; several other people have the clout of a VP in international relations.

Quote:
On the other hand, I think it's kind of ridiculous we're talking about this (which is a real issue) while Trump's children jet around the world working for DADDY'S MONEY, INC trying to do business deals in foreign countries.
True, but it's a bit harder to make Trump corruption stick when there's a little smoke around your leading candidate. Hence public trust and appearance of conflict of interests and all that being important.
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  #312  
Old 10-04-2019, 12:33 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

On the subject of candidate age: Elizabeth Warren is 70, Bernie Sanders is 78, Joe Biden is 76, Donald Trump is 73, Nancy Pelosi is 79, Maxine Waters is 81, Diane Feinstein is 86.
The 115th Congress is among the oldest in history
Quote:
18 of the 33 Senators running for reelection in 2018 will be 65 or older. If they win, another six years in office would put Senators Feinstein, Hatch, Nelson, and Sanders well into their 80s. Looking ahead at the 2020 elections, 21 of the 33 Senators running for reelection will be 65 or older. The current chamber is already one of the oldest Senates by some measures according to the Washington Post, and the data suggests this trend would continue in the coming years.
Age can be a liability; for myself the question is what is the specific problematic behavior or condition. Do these things then outweigh the platform, preferred policies, and plans of said candidate?
Down to brass tacks, what is the cut-off age? Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigeig, Andrew Yang, Cory Booker, Beto O'Rourke, Tulsi Gabbard, and Julian Castro are my age appropriate candidates now? Oh hells no. Pass. Not when there's better candidates who are also older.

Fundraising Quarter three update:
Biden’s $15 Million Trails Sanders, Buttigieg: Campaign Update{warning metered paywall}{warning description within actual link title does not match content at time of posting}
Quote:
Joe Biden said his campaign raised $15 million during the third quarter, putting him behind lower-polling candidates Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg.

Biden spoke at a fundraiser in Palo Alto, California, but his campaign has yet to announce his end-of-quarter haul and declined to comment on his announcement.
If the reporting is true, this could definitely signal flagging interest in Biden from donors.

Warren hasn't yet released fundraising numbers.
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  #313  
Old 10-04-2019, 04:37 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Just think, Michael Avenatti could be in the running. But he's busy placing liens against Stormy Daniels. While defending himself from charges of defrauding Stormy Daniels.
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  #314  
Old 10-04-2019, 11:37 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Warren's campaign released their excellent third quarter fundraising numbers: $24.6 million.
Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders blow past Joe Biden in fundraising race
Quote:
The ability of Warren and Sanders to raise huge amounts online further cements the power of small donors in modern presidential politics. The two senators have disavowed private fundraisers, collecting all of their money instead from modest givers who mostly donate online.

Biden, by contrast, has been spending considerable time traveling to events with deep-pocketed donors ó a traditional route to the nomination, but one that has limited his time on the campaign trail. Now he will enter the final stretch before voting begins in Iowa and New Hampshire with fewer resources and a steep hill to climb to catch his rivals on the left. Many of the big donors Biden is relying on heavily have already contributed the maximum allowed by federal law.
As the campaigns progress one area of conflict is anticipated, if not already active; Warren supporters vs. Sanders supporters. In the past few weeks the MSM has decided on Warren and that position has hardened. Biden support is waning if still substantial, and he is far from out of the race. Sanders support is being eclipsed by Warren in a number of polls. Some supporters for candidates like Harris and Buttigieg are statistically more likely to go to Warren (generally as a trend, not in lockstep); Biden support in second choice polling is split 29% for Warren and 25% for Sanders. All this is to say this is one possible configuration, and if I have my prognosticatorís bias showing my ass in the wind I apologize.

Whatever your calculations, feelings, etc. for Sanders or for Warren, having two progressive voices in reach of the candidacy and on the debate stage supporting each other in calling out against corporate greed, calling out for Medicare for All and health care as a human right- thatís a big deal. This has been important and helpful for both campaigns.
They want many of the same things.

There are also important differences not to be overlooked, in terms of how they want to address income inequality and the ecological crisis and the fundamental approach to the status quo.

Warren wants to reform and regulate the system- tax billionaires. Regulate oil. Regulate Wall Street. This approach is technocratic. The limits to this approach are that regulators as a historical pattern get captured or defanged (not an argument against regulation, simply an acknowledgement of its limitations).

Sanders in contrast wants to radically transform the system, along with some reforms, all backed by social movements of grassroots support and social agitation focused on class. This approach is as a union organizer; Sanders says if he becomes president he will be the Organizer-in-Chief. The limits to this approach are depending on an active and informed base to recognize class solidarity and overcome atomization and overcome the programming against organizing at the community level. Bernie has over 1 million individual donors and over 1 million volunteers on the ground for his campaign right now; so Bernieís making some inroads to build this movement.

Arguments for reform are that incremental change and reforms are less likely to create a political backlash bent on undoing the changes enacted by the previous administration or party in power. Reforms are more likely to get through the halls of power and get enacted. The system provides many good outcomes and just needs to be regulated by a strong hand.
Arguments against reform are that capitalism is a boom-bust cycle with a constant profit motive wearing at democratic principles and norms, where those were even applicable and not window dressing to the genocide, slavery, imperialist war machine, exploitable immigrant labor as second class citizens, and mass incarceration that has been central to capitalismís growth and dominance in the US. Reforms are easily undone; look at banking regulations being gutted in administration after administration; the too-big-to-fail banks of the 2008 economic crisis are now all even bigger, the few regulations put in place after 2008 now smoothed away.

Within a larger context, reforms also wonít address the issues we as a species face in terms of climate extinction, the crisis of inaction, and the need for radical, deep, real change to address the reality of our future. Less than 12 years.

Arguments for union organizer model: populism and socialism are often bandied about in the US like dirty words. When Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and her team knocked every door in her district and got grassroots support, thatís definitely populist support. It means people are involved, and politics and community power isnít something a politician wields at a great remove. The existing system must be radically transformed to challenge the power of the 1% and a social system designed to transfer wealth to the rich and keep a massive underclass in poverty. Engaging people across the country to demand more from the system now, before it is entirely too late, is vital; the interests shared most clearly are class interests. Solidarity populist movements focused on climate strike, civil rights, economic rights, social change, and class struggle can pressure for real political change from the outside.
Arguments against the union organizer model: people can work against their own self-interests; most people still not involved in politics; social movements can be corrupted and unjust; massive changes spark counter-revolutionary reprisals, harden and organize resistance. No guarantee that outside agitation will force desired political outcomes. Model requires young people to be involved in politics in record numbers.

Hereís whatís going to be played up, to encourage division and caricatures: illegitimate attacks based entirely in identity politics or preferences about the candidates personally rather than policies or substance.

Among other Bernie supporters I know, our take has been to hone in on what are the specific plans or position a person likes, rather than engage on the candidate identity as the main focus. The two Booker supporters Iíve met so far haven't had any cogent response to, ďWhat policies or positions of Bookerís are the ones you like the most?Ē
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  #315  
Old 10-05-2019, 12:29 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

For what it's worth (little if you're feeling generous), I think Warren has a narrative that will work better than Sanders' -- a Middle America former conservative who once thought that the American Dream was attainable, but discovered that the system was rigged. At this level, at least, Sanders has exactly the same message, but Warren has the "Reality explained to me as to a child, and I finally got it" story arc that could lead enough "swing" voters* to a similar ... epiphany? whatever less dramatic term for it? ... to get even the slightest inkling of how to vote for their own fucking interests, for once.


* Disclaimer - I have not the slightest rat's pubic hair's worth of respect for a red-vs-blue swing voter at this point, so my ability to understand, let alone respect, them is obviously compromised; in some other election, a [really unlikely] "maybe", but if you can't decide whether to oust this clear-and-present-utter-piece-of-shit, the best anyone can do is to try to herd you into an honorable direction.
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  #316  
Old 10-05-2019, 01:46 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Echoing Sock Puppet's disclaimer:

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  #317  
Old 10-05-2019, 06:22 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

How's anyone still on the fence?

I'm doing all right, I guess. Obviously, the face eating leopards are going after the people I don't like.
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  #318  
Old 10-05-2019, 12:45 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Best Booker policy is easy - from what I hear it's his criminal justice reform stuff, altho I'm not up on the details. He's also been out front on marijuana legalization. He's not my first or second choice, but he's fine.

To be fair, I would guess that if you went to a Bernie rally, you wouldn't be able to get much beyond the obvious stuff (Medicare for All and free college). You're not likely going to be hearing much about his labor plan, for example.
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  #319  
Old 10-05-2019, 07:30 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Quote:
Originally Posted by erimir View Post
To be fair, I would guess that if you went to a Bernie rally, you wouldn't be able to get much beyond the obvious stuff (Medicare for All and free college). You're not likely going to be hearing much about his labor plan, for example.
Not to mention the now very uphill battle that is foreign policy.
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  #320  
Old 10-09-2019, 02:50 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

The pundit class continues to misunderstand Bernie Sanders – and it shows
A short opinion piece in the Guardian. Oct 8, 2019, by Nathan J. Robinson, the editor of Current Affairs.
Quote:
In part, the media underestimates Bernie because it can’t understand Bernie. The new ad quotes CNN’s Nia-Malika Henderson saying it’s “really hard to imagine who the Bernie Sanders voter is at this point”. And it’s true: if you are, like Henderson, a Yale graduate living in Washington DC, or you are, like the New York Times’ Sydney Ember, a former financial analyst for an investment bank, the source of Bernie’s appeal must be mystifying. That’s because Sanders returns again and again to issues that are of little interest to the political media, like environmental policy, social welfare, and education.

Consider MSNBC. Combing through their home page a few days ago, I found that nearly every story was about Trump, Ukraine and impeachment. The one headline about climate change, an issue so important that it should be dominating every day’s deadlines, was “Watch London climate change protest involving 1,800 liters of fake blood go horribly wrong,” hardly a substantive discussion of science or policy.

That's the video referenced in the op ed, that a fan put together; it was also posted directly to Twitter where it got about 5 million views.

Ady Barkan, who was diagnosed with ALS at 32, is featured in the video.
You may have seen him meeting with Sanders, Warren, Harris; and he had to cancel on a scheduled Buttigieg meeting because of unexpected medical issues.
Time, September 9, 2019: How My Dying Body Could Help Give Yours a Future
A very brief outline of what happened to Ady in his own words.

Common Dreams, October 3 2019: Out of Surgery, Dying Activist Ady Barkan Still Waiting to Talk With Joe Biden About Medicare for All
Biden is the only candidate to not respond to Barkan at all.

I'm also going to mention Warren voters here, in the main demographic: white, college educated, affluent. Krystal Ball mentions it and I agree: there are some Warren voters who think that maybe things can just go back to how they were under Obama; that a technocrat in the White House with some reforms is going to make things better- but not really shift any power away from the elite (two cents!), and that those white, affluent, college educated voters will stay comfortable and in power. The media is aimed at them, the culture is there for them, and the vast majority- the underclasses- can be dismissed or left behind.
There's other reasons people back Warren, but it's telling that Bernie's demographics are far more working class, far younger, far more representative of a broad coalition, that demands more than reforms. That sees the ecological crisis as here right now, not something that can be modestly addressed.
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  #321  
Old 10-09-2019, 04:34 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

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Originally Posted by chunksmediocrites View Post
I'm also going to mention Warren voters here, in the main demographic: white, college educated, affluent. Krystal Ball mentions it and I agree: there are some Warren voters who think that maybe things can just go back to how they were under Obama;
I mean, sure there might be some Warren voters who think that. There are millions of Democratic primary voters and she's getting a big chunk of them, so some will have strange ideas.

On the other hand, she has called for eliminating the filibuster, a wealth tax, workers to be on corporate boards, major expansions of labor power (an end to right-to-work, sectoral bargaining, etc.), Medicare for All, anti-trust action in big tech, etc. etc.

Now, do you think that's just going back to things under Obama? If not, why do you give a shit what some delusional Warren supporters think?
Quote:
that a technocrat in the White House with some reforms is going to make things better- but not really shift any power away from the elite (two cents!)
I'm not sure what the purpose of the "two cents" mention is there, because it seems pretty... uh, dumb. The article is making the point that the framing of "two cents" is meant to make the plan seem less radical than it is, which is, I would say, a pretty accurate reading of what Warren is doing there. Is chunks suggesting that Warren framing her wealth tax as less radical than it is indicates that it actually is not a big deal?

I mean, I guess a thing I've seen commonly among some on the left is elevating aesthetics over substance. So, Bernie Sanders having a somewhat more aggressive wealth tax is fine, but the thing that really gets them going is that when he proposed it he said "I don't think billionaires should exist." Whereas saying that it's not too much to ask of the super-rich is... bad? Even though the left-wing position is that... it isn't too much to ask?
Quote:
and that those white, affluent, college educated voters will stay comfortable and in power. The media is aimed at them, the culture is there for them, and the vast majority- the underclasses- can be dismissed or left behind.
I don't really know wtf this view is supposedly based on. But I would note that free college and cancelling student loan debt is aimed directly at people like me - college-educated with large student loan debt. Like, his platform is good for quite a lot of white, college-educated voters, and even many of the affluent ones will benefit.
Quote:
There's other reasons people back Warren, but it's telling that Bernie's demographics are far more working class
This wasn't the case in 2016, he lost most of his college educated voters to Warren, basically. Having the support of college-educated Millennials wasn't a bad thing back then. Now that they support Warren more than Sanders, it's bad I guess.
Quote:
far younger, far more representative of a broad coalition
On age, Warren has fairly even support across age groups, while Bernie Sanders does not have a broad coalition - he has the support of young voters, and very little support among older voters. He also doesn't actually have more support among minorities than Warren.

Who is ahead in the Democratic primary race?

Here's the breakdown according to the Economist's polling guru:
white: 30% Warren, 15% Sanders
black: 13% Warren, 11% Sanders
Hispanic: 19% Warren, 19% Sanders
other: 21% Warren, 20% Sanders

Now the notable thing there is that Warren has a lot more support among white voters. Whereas the notion that Sanders is far more popular among non-white Democrats is... uh... not at all supported.
Quote:
that demands more than reforms. That sees the ecological crisis as here right now, not something that can be modestly addressed.
Bernie's plans don't seem that radically different from Warren's. You'd think he was proposing nationalizing major industries or something. Bernie's plans are also reforms. He's just calling his reforms "revolution".
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  #322  
Old 10-11-2019, 12:32 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Elizabeth Warren changed course on plans regarding whether she would accept corporate and big money donors after the primary, if she gets the nomination.
First the campaign had stated that they would take all funding streams, and there were lots of pundits arguing about how it would be, "unilateral disarmament," if Warren chose not to take the money. The Man linked to piece not that far back in the thread.
Then in an interview recently (video here) Senator Warren was explicit in saying her campaign would NOT do corporate or big donor events if they won the primary; then the campaign clarified after saying Warren would fund raise big money donors and corporate events to fund raise for the Democratic Party, but not for Warren. I do think this is an improved position, though why corporate money isn't good for the Democratic Party as well as Warren and Sanders is part of the issue.

12 candidates on the debate stage next week Tuesday; November debates are already up to eight qualifiers; Yang just qualified recently, after Booker and Steyer.

Speaking of Tom Steyer, the first time he will be on the debate stage is next week; a hedge fund, private investment, former Goldman-Sachs California billionaire who is mostly self-financing his campaign. He's an environmentalist who invested in fossil fuels, a progressive who invested in private for-profit prisons including one of the companies currently running US border concentration camps. Anyway here's a too-long article about him from ABC.

Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman are grifters who I assume the FBI is just reeling out on a long rope to add pages to the civil and criminal indictments that will eventually catch up with them; the most recent idiocies (after attempting to fabricate controversies about Robert Mueller, and Pete Buttigieg) was the "Elizabeth Warren, Cougar" press conference, and now a "Kamala Harris, Sexcapades" fabrication that has also fallen flat.

Vox: Oct 10, 2019: The state of the 2020 Democratic presidential race
Decent article on the current state of polling and candidacies, published today.
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  #323  
Old 10-17-2019, 02:00 AM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Fourth Democratic debate was hosted by CNN in Ohio yesterday. 12 candidates on stage for three hours. Transcript here.

NYT interactive graphic here on who had the most speaking time and further the topics they covered with their time. I'll list them below in the same order with the speaking time and some notes.

Warren 22:47: as the frontrunner Warren got a lot of time and used it well; she deflected or turned most attacks, held her points. Debate did not hurt her.

Biden 16:39: Ugh. Biden didn't answer the question on Hunter and his roles; tried to take credit for vote-whipping for the creation of the CFPB that Warren set up; interrupted Warren in a patronizing tone to tell her, "You did a hell of a job at your job," talked about how he would beat Trump like a drum, and otherwise gave non-answer answers that look even worse when read.
Quote:
Vice President Biden, you have warned against demonizing rich people. Do you believe that Senator Sanders and Senator Warren's wealth tax plans do that?

BIDEN: No, look, demonizing wealth -- what I talked about is how you get things done. And the way to get things done is take a look at the tax code right now. The idea -- we have to start rewarding work, not just wealth. I would eliminate the capital gains tax -- I would raise the capital gains tax to the highest rate, of 39.5 percent.

I would double it, because guess what? Why in God's name should someone who's clipping coupons in the stock market make -- in fact, pay a lower tax rate than someone who, in fact, is -- like I said -- the -- a schoolteacher and a firefighter? It's ridiculous. And they pay a lower tax.

Secondly, the idea that we, in fact, engage in this notion that there are -- there's $1,640,000,000,000 in tax loopholes. You can't justify a minimum $600 billion of that. We could eliminate it all. I could go into detail had I the time.

Secondly -- I mean, thirdly, what we need to do is we need to go out and make it clear to the American people that we are going to -- we are going to raise taxes on the wealthy. We're going to reduce tax burdens on those who are not.

And this is one of the reasons why these debates are kind of crazy, because everybody tries to squeeze everything into every answer that is given. The fact is, everybody's right about the fact that the fourth industrial revolution is costing jobs. It is. The fact is also corporate greed is they're going back and not investing in our employees, they're reinvesting and buying back their stock.
People of Earth: Joe Biden. In my estimation this was a bad performance and he came out slightly down.

Klobuchar 13:18 Well, Bill Maher's dream candidate got plenty of time to represent her vision and brand; a lot of Midwest values signalling and Health Insurance industry talking points; she leaned on Trump talk a bit. I don't think she lost ground; I just don't know where she gained any, beyond getting a good amount of face time.

O'Rourke 13:09 Would you like to hear about Texas? How about bland platitudes? Done and done. His story at the end of sharing a car with a Republican made me want to gag. I guess he did okay? His mouth noises were sincere.

Sanders 13:04 Bernie did well in the debate in my opinion- fiesty, looked good, fielded attacks well. This debate was critical for him to be strong and vital. His response to Joe Biden about the list of things he got done- pointing out Biden also got Iraq, disastrous bankruptcy laws, and NAFTA done- was a good counter. Handled questions of health well, was on point. I think he came out ahead in the debate.

Buttigieg 13:01 Apparently NPR thought Buttigieg did great; he swung at progressives as Biden's corporate replacement, tried to push on Warren with his Medicare for All Who Want it, and mostly got served on that. My estimation was that he stayed flat.

Harris 12:23 This was the worst performance of the debates for Harris. Insisting that Warren join her in demanding Twitter force Trump off their platform, multiple times, when the subject was at once bigger and of greater depth was a weird turn. She pointed out no one had talked about reproductive rights and women's rights to abortion access- okay, never bad to bring up- but did not improve her brand; I think this was a loss for her.

Booker 11:40 Okay Booker really doubled down on the, "We're just playing into Trump's hands by going after each other" line, which I strongly disagree with- it's the primary where you figure out what candidates stand for and how they differentiate- any attacks spared now will just be at full force after the primary; best to test the mettle now. I think his performance was flat to poor.

Yang 8:32 The tech entrepreneur did well in the debate, hitting his main point over and over regarding automation and UBI. Tied it heavily to Ohio and the decimation of jobs there. Overall I think his stock is still rising, and the debate helped him.

Castro 8:26 Castro did okay but he was not as strong in this debate; and his points were not especially noteworthy. Flat.

Gabbard 8:24 Gabbard was less focused in this debate and it showed; her attacks mostly fell flat or were timed out before they could begin. She did acknowledge the unending attacks on her in the media as a "Russian asset", made a few points. I think this performance was flat.

Steyer 7:13 Why does billionaire exist? He agreed that billionaires should not exist, agreed with progressives, but is a poison billionaire hedge fund manager. Hey Tom Steyer: give your billions to some worthy causes and GTFO. Also this is the whitest white guy of the forgettable white guy candidate parade, except vaguely progressive. I think he did poorly with what little time he was given, which was more than enough.

Two hours into the debate, word came via the internet that Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez are endorsing Bernie Sanders, so that boosted the night for a lot of Bernie supporters as well.

Notably, the coverage of candidates on the NYT homepage, today, by mentions:
Trump x18
Warren x11
Biden x5
Buttigieg x3
Yang x1
Gabbard x1
Sanders: zero mentions.
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  #324  
Old 10-18-2019, 11:47 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

I agree with your observations, especially the cringy "can't we all just get along?" pleading from Booker. He's always been a favorite politician of mine because he seems like a straight-shooter, but I agree that it would've been better if he had fought more to differentiate himself from the others.
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Old 10-18-2019, 11:55 PM
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Default Re: Ultimate Cagefight MMXIX, Democratic Edition

Politico has a breakdown of the fundraising and campaign finances of the Democratic Candidates; one item of note is Biden spent more than he raised in the third quarter; he has $9 million cash on hand going into these crucial last three months and has less money on hand than much of the field; in comparison second-tier Buttigieg has $23.4 million cash on hand. Also of note is one out of every 16 dollars Joe "Amtrak" Biden spent in third quarter was for private jets.


Pete Buttigieg cuts ties with donor who tried to block release of Laquan McDonald shooting video
Quote:
Pete Buttigieg is cutting ties and returning contributions from Steve Patton, the former Chicago city attorney who tried to block the release of video showing the shooting of Laquan McDonald, a black teenager whose death at the hands of police stirred months of protest and resulted in an officer's conviction.

Patton was to be a co-host of a Buttigieg fundraiser taking place Friday in Chicago, and Buttigieg said Friday that he only found out about Patton's involvement in the event Friday morning.
...>snip<...
Federal Election Commisssion reports show that Patton donated $5,600 to Buttigieg's campaign.
More data from Politico (from about a month ago) on demographics of polled voters by candidate; some stand-out data is Buttigieg's support is between 80 and 90% white; Yang's support is over 70% male.
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