Blurple Ripple in 3,2,1...

[SR71]

Barring any black swans that might fly over and shit all over everything like last time, I'm feeling pretty sanguine about Dems taking the House. That's something, at least. Maybe I've been watching too much MSNBC.

[SR71]

Why it gotta be a black swan? That's racist!

[SR71]

Now is the time when I can no longer conceal the ulterior motive for starting this thread.

Time to get down to the real nitty gritty. Look at the dude! What is that?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2v8IgJdsm4

[Ensign Steve]

Originally Posted by SR71

Now is the time when I can no longer conceal the ulterior motive for starting this thread.

I'll allow it.

[JoeP]

[SR71]

That song was stuck in my head for months. Seemed like a good election day theme song. That video was like double bonus.

[SR71]

Bluh. MSNBC said exit polls in GA and FL had Trump favorable at 51% or something like that. Dem's stayed home?

[The Man]

Well, 538 has this:

Trump’s Approval Rating Is Up. Republican House Chances Are Down. Does That Make Any Sense? | FiveThirtyEight

IDK. Gotta go back to work. I'll see how things turn out soon enough I guess.

[erimir]

It feels like all of America is awaiting the results of a biopsy.

— Jena Friedman (@JenaFriedman) November 6, 2018

Seems accurate.

[SR71]

I was definitely watching too much MSNBC. I'm thinking blurple ripple was a pretty fair description.

[lisarea]

Originally Posted by SR71

I was definitely watching too much MSNBC. I'm thinking blurple ripple was a pretty fair description.

Our friend was over last night for dinner and election results, and the term 'blurple ripple' came up. I even credited you, probably as "some internet guy."

I tried not to have too many expectations or pay attention to projections, so I'm OK with how it came out. Colorado came out pretty well.

I was very pleasantly surprised that our stupid secretary of state lost. He'd been getting a whole lot of glowing press about our elections being the most secure in the nation or something once the votes have been submitted, and it was like everyone forgot about how he ran his campaign on disenfranchising voters and how he was first in line to suck up to Kris Kobach. It never even occurred to me that he might actually lose, but then he did!

Our new governor elect is currently our representative, and I'm pretty done with him, so I'm looking forward to his replacement. Matlock likes the new guy, so I'm taking his word for some reason. Polis was the lesser of two evils in the governor race. He's good, I voted for him in the general election (not the primary), and I'm glad he won over the stupid crazy guy. He's just not my favorite. I'm glad he's won and that's over so I can start complaining about him more openly.

[SR71]

The house front and Governor races are going much better than I thought they would. I gues it could be a blue wave? Wavelet? Still bummed about Gillum and Abrams. Senate I think we all knew was a lost cause. Looks like Scott Walker has a good chance of finally getting gone. Sweet! I'm really surprised how well things are going out west. Kansas going democratic governor? Wow! Colorado gay governor? How about a gay NA lady out west?

At the very least, let the investigations begin! Will that count as a biopsy?

[SR71]

This is Kansas yall.

[SR71]

This could be yuge in the future. Florida to let felons vote. Look how close the governor and senate races were, with a point or two. Remember Bush V Gore?

In Major Win for Voting Rights, Florida Ends Nation's Largest Felon Disenfranchisement Law | Alternet

[slimshady2357]

Mixed results tonight for sure, but worth remembering this:

Tonight, Dems will take about 33 House seats with a popular vote win of +9.2%.

In 2010, Republicans took 63 House seats with a popular vote win of +7.2%.

The difference: Gerrymandering

Remember this when pundits try to downplay what Dems accomplished tonight. #ElectionNight

— Ess (@ScottyLiterati) 7 November 2018

Also, HOW THE FUCK DID STEVE KING WIN?! WTF is wrong with IOWA?

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Well done Colorado.

Democrat Jared Polis wins Colorado governor race: first openly gay person elected governor - Vox

[The Man]

Ok, one last thing. Don’t listen to people who say that this wasn’t a good night for Democrats. If you were on a hot date and thought you were gonna fuck all night, but instead got great oral and a promise to see each other again, would you be sad?

— The Rude Pundit (@rudepundit) 7 November 2018

[erimir]

A lot of the disappointment comes down to what expectations were/hopes (there was a chance Democrats would outperform the polls, after all), the Senate, and losses in a few high profile races (Florida and Georgia foremost, but Texas Sen and Ohio Gov would count too).

Overall we're looking at:

• Yes, losses in the Senate, probably net of 2-3 gain for GOP
• But we gain House control, 30-39 seat swing to the Democrats, which is actually means it will probably come in just slightly below 538's model's prediction (so expectations were actually pretty much met in that regard)
• 7 governor seats flipped (with CT left to be called, possible GOP flip but Dem leads narrowly) (also this meant defeating Scott Walker and Kris Kobach)
• Several trifectas gained - IL, NY, CO, NV, NM, ME
• Obviously, many gains in state legislatures
• Anti-gerrymandering referenda passed in multiple states
• Automatic voter registration and similar voting reforms passed in multiple states
• Felon disenfranchisement largely ended in Florida, increasing eligible voters by 1.5 million
• Marijuana legalized in Michigan
• Medicaid expansion leads in multiple state referenda (and as a result of new governors, will also go ahead in KS and ME)

There are other things that went well.

Overall, pretty good results that will cause significant problems for Trump and enable some important changes, even if I really would've liked to see Abrams or Gillum win, or better results in the Senate.

[viscousmemories]

I worked a phone bank for Beto and gave his campaign a little money, so I'm torn between being glad I didn't invest more and feeling guilty for not investing more.

Otherwise, this captures my mood effectively:

If the midterms were a test of the country’s character, Americans failed - The Globe and Mail

[Clutch Munny]

Just poppin in to say, I hope somewhere Scarlatti is smiling about the large dusty bootmark on Scott Walker's ass.

[specious_reasons]

Originally Posted by Clutch Munny

Just poppin in to say, I hope somewhere Scarlatti is smiling about the large dusty bootmark on Scott Walker's ass.

That was a bright light in the evening! Getting Rauner out of Illinois was nice, too - although being replaced by another billionaire isn't exactly the best outcome.

I was looking through the local races in Washington State, and the bifurcated nature of the state is very obvious - the coastal area is mostly blue and got bluer, Eastern Washington is red and mostly stayed red. My daughter moved her voting location to her college address, but it looks like that didn't swing the result.

I'm still disappointed about the Senate, mostly because the Senate has more power to check the President. The GOP has abandoned any pretense of oversight so Trump will not be as constrained as I would like. I expect more judicial office stuffing and DeVos-quality appointments in the next 2 years.

I also don't think that Romney will be anything other than the weak-willed, morphing POS he's always been, so I don't think his past opposition to Trump will amount to a hill of beans now.

[erimir]

Another bright spot was Virginia, where Minnesotan Neo-Confederate Corey Stewart crashed and burned spectacularly in his race against Tim Kaine, losing by 16 pts. Remember how Virginia was a close race in 2014 (Mark Warner) and 2006 (George Allen)? The Virginia GOP had a very bad night, losing three House seats out of the mere eleven in VA. They flipped from a 7-4 advantage in the VA delegation to a 4-7 minority. I'm guessing they will be shaking in their boots for the 2019 legislative elections, where Democrats need to flip only two seats in the VA House and one in the VA Senate in order to take full control of the VA government.

Originally Posted by Clutch Munny

Just poppin in to say, I hope somewhere Scarlatti is smiling about the large dusty bootmark on Scott Walker's ass.

Apparently the turnout in Madison (Dane County) was insane. As was the margin. Despite how much smaller it is than Milwaukee, Evers actually got a bigger margin out of Dane County than Milwaukee County in terms of votes.

Milwaukee County: 35 pt margin, 140k vote margin
Dane County: 50 pt margin! 150k vote margin

Originally Posted by specious_reasons

I also don't think that Romney will be anything other than the weak-willed, morphing POS he's always been, so I don't think his past opposition to Trump will amount to a hill of beans now.

I think this is probably correct, but it's notable that Utah is one of the states where he could most afford to be anti-Trump. One of the House members there is relatively anti-Trump and won his primary and reelection easily. If he decides not to offer even a Flake-level opposition to Trump, it's because he doesn't want to.

On the other hand, if he gets a fit of conscience, it will be easy to indulge. But I suspect some of the Never Trump Republicans who assure us that Democrats were too hard on Romney and he really is a good man and it's so unfortunate he didn't win in 2012 because then there'd be no Trump, etc. etc. are about to find out how deluded they've been about him, because Romney won't do shit.

[Ensign Steve]

Originally Posted by erimir

I think this is probably correct, but it's notable that Utah is one of the states where he could most afford to be anti-Trump.

For real. Southern evangelicals may be flaming hypocrites, but I'd like to believe that Mormons would at least try to appear anti-pussy-grabbing.

[specious_reasons]

Originally Posted by erimir

I think this is probably correct, but it's notable that Utah is one of the states where he could most afford to be anti-Trump. One of the House members there is relatively anti-Trump and won his primary and reelection easily. If he decides not to offer even a Flake-level opposition to Trump, it's because he doesn't want to.

On the other hand, if he gets a fit of conscience, it will be easy to indulge. But I suspect some of the Never Trump Republicans who assure us that Democrats were too hard on Romney and he really is a good man and it's so unfortunate he didn't win in 2012 because then there'd be no Trump, etc. etc. are about to find out how deluded they've been about him, because Romney won't do shit.

I expect about Flake-level of opposition, unless he finds some specific advantage to doing more (or less).

Rmoney is not a white nationalist and is mostly not prone to advocating conspiracy theories. There are many, many more worse Republicans out there, and I'd rather have him in the Senate than a whole lot of other people. I just don't think anyone should be optimistic about him.

[Stephen Maturin]

The race for clerk of an obscure county in Kentucky ordinary wouldn't generate much interest outside the county itself. However, the clerk of Rowan County, Kentucky is grandstanding asshole Kim Davis, who became a wingnut hero in 2015 when she refused to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples after the Obergefell decision. Among other things, Davis' grandstanding cost taxpayers some $225,000.00, the attorney fees incurred by the same-sex couples who sued to get marriage licenses issued.

In yet another feel-good story from Election 2018, Rowan County voters gave Davis the stanky boot yesterday. Happy trails and fare thee well, ya piece of shit.