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Old 12-08-2017, 06:26 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

Since davidm is jumping in on other shit, I'm just going to wonder if he read this last post.

He did, after all, post that article approving, despite it being comprehensively and predictably wrong. I guess since I didn't mention him explicitly, it made it easier for him to not acknowledge that he was promoting such idiotic drivel. I understand, if I had praised Walker Bragman's stupidity, I'd be embarrassed too.
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  #4452  
Old 12-10-2017, 11:48 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

Long thread, unwrapped for reading ease, by Seth Abramson about the Comey thing.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/939432544008921088
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  #4453  
Old 12-10-2017, 12:16 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

[thanks] for the unwrapping
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  #4454  
Old 12-19-2017, 09:48 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race



...well, Gary "Aleppo?" Johnson isn't under investigation either, AFAIK, but still.
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  #4455  
Old 12-19-2017, 12:13 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

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  #4456  
Old 01-01-2018, 08:54 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

I watched Fox the other day, Tucker show, and they were reporting about how Judicial Watch had gotten a court order to have all of the emails from Weiner's computer released and, you know, lock her up and all that. They made it sound like this is all going to explode any minute now. I guess there is still a push to reopen the investigation in congress or something, I forget already.

I still say her having Ouma on her team was the worst unforced error. I think she could have recovered from Comey's first (one-sided) public outburst over ongoing investigations, but the second one was fatal, and Ouma's computer was the foot in the door for it. Big mistake to take on anyone associated with Anthony "Cock Shots" Weiner.
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Old 01-01-2018, 09:25 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

But Weiner wasn't known for any of that when Huma started at the State Department. They weren't even married yet.

And it seems a bit icky to suggest she should have been fired because her husband was a perv. And the reason he resigned from Congress was infidelity, not criminal wrongdoing.

It might be that Huma was bad at following IT security guidelines, which might be a better reason not to hire her. But I'm guessing she won't be getting any prominent government position in the future...
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  #4458  
Old 01-02-2018, 12:08 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

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But Weiner wasn't known for any of that when Huma started at the State Department. They weren't even married yet.

And it seems a bit icky to suggest she should have been fired because her husband was a perv. And the reason he resigned from Congress was infidelity, not criminal wrongdoing.

It might be that Huma was bad at following IT security guidelines, which might be a better reason not to hire her. But I'm guessing she won't be getting any prominent government position in the future...
Yeah but Weiner had already acheived perv status by the time Clinton was picking her campaign associates. To me, just horse sense would suggest to keep the ex of a famous perv at more than arms length from her campaign staff. I agree it would not have been fair to Huma, but the purpose of a campaign is to get elected, not to be fair to everyone you've ever worked with. It really seems like a self induced vulnerability to me.

I think there is a difference of degree, to have the emails show up on Ant'ny's computer, versus also to have his ex on your campaign staff after all the dirty laundry is already out.
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  #4459  
Old 01-02-2018, 12:18 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

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Originally Posted by SR71 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by erimir View Post
But Weiner wasn't known for any of that when Huma started at the State Department. They weren't even married yet.

And it seems a bit icky to suggest she should have been fired because her husband was a perv. And the reason he resigned from Congress was infidelity, not criminal wrongdoing.

It might be that Huma was bad at following IT security guidelines, which might be a better reason not to hire her. But I'm guessing she won't be getting any prominent government position in the future...
Yeah but Weiner had already acheived perv status by the time Clinton was picking her campaign associates. To me, just horse sense would suggest to keep the ex of a famous perv at more than arms length from her campaign staff. I agree it would not have been fair to Huma, but the purpose of a campaign is to get elected, not to be fair to everyone you've ever worked with. It really seems like a self induced vulnerability to me.

I think there is a difference of degree, to have the emails show up on Ant'ny's computer, versus also to have his ex on your campaign staff after all the dirty laundty is already out.
Her 2016 campaign didn't have anything to do with Weiner getting involved in the email investigation though. That related to emails from Abedin's time working for Clinton at the State Department, five to eight years ago. Abedin and Weiner separated near the beginning of the 2016 campaign (summer 2015).

Even if she had quit when the sexting allegations came out, or had not been connected to Clinton after 2013, it wouldn't have made any difference. Wiener would've still been connected to Abedin, who was connected to Clinton at State.

So not only was there no reasonable expectation that Weiner would screw Clinton the way he did, but it wouldn't have prevented it anyway. At least, the supposition that it would have is highly speculative. Yet foreseeing that Weiner's sexting would connect to the email server investigation in 2015 would've been even more speculative. Considering it obvious enough such that it's her "biggest unforced error" seems very hard to justify.

It was shit luck, not something foreseeable.
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  #4460  
Old 01-02-2018, 12:31 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

I understand those points about the timing, but Clinton should've said, sorry Huma, but Anthony is bad news, so guilt by association, unfair as it may be, I really can't use you on my campaign. See, that just compounds the problem, she was still associating. Compare these two blurbs -

Clinton's emails were found on Weiner's computer via Huma who used to work for her at State.

vs

Clinton's emails were found on Weiner's computer via Huma who used to work for her at State and is now Vice Chairwoman of Clinton's presidential campaign.

Do you see the distinction?
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Old 01-02-2018, 12:57 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

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I understand those points about the timing, but Clinton should've said, sorry Huma, but Anthony is bad news, so guilt by association, unfair as it may be, I really can't use you on my campaign. See, that just compounds the problem, she was still associating. Compare these two blurbs -

Clinton's emails were found on Weiner's computer via Huma who used to work for her at State.

vs

Clinton's emails were found on Weiner's computer via Huma who used to work for her at State and is now Vice Chairwoman of Clinton's presidential campaign.

Do you see the distinction?
I think it would've made only a minor difference. I think there are much worse unforced errors. For example, picking Tim Kaine for VP was probably worse (although it did probably help put Virginia out of Trump's reach). Not trying to go after telecoms, the least popular corporations in the country, or coming out for marijuana decriminalization or legalization... I can see how associating with Huma was bad in hindsight, but that's different from an unforced error.

At least picking Kaine and policy positions were things that had known implications, while the Huma stuff basically holds her retroactively accountable for the ridiculous coverage of the email issue, compounded by Comey's unprecedented interference and conflation with the Russian email hacking releases.

Given what was known at the time, saying she obviously needed to fire Huma seems odd to me. And I don't recall many people claiming that Huma needed to be fired at the time, based on that rather than crazy stuff like she's a Muslim Brotherhood mole.
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  #4462  
Old 01-02-2018, 07:29 AM
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I can't see it the same way. Seems like increasing exposure to risk when you pick people with known associations to people of poor character to be on your team. It's kind of like storing a garden rake flat on the floor with the tines facing up. You don't know that you're going to step on it, and then one day the handle is smacking you in the face. It was a completely avoidable risk.

I don't think most people even knew Huma was on Clinton's campaign until the last minute email eruption, or that she was ever married to Anthony Weiner. Take it from me, it didn't sound good when all this was coming to light a few days before the election. It was an avoidable risk. Everybody I talked to at the time had the same impression. Why did she have her on the team, being a tie to anyone as unpopular as Anthony Weiner? It definitely seemed like poor judgement. I still think it may have cost her the election. I clearly recall having a sinking feeling when all that was on the tube.
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Old 01-02-2018, 09:55 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

I recall a sinking feeling when the Comey letter came out. But you had one when Weiner and Abedin were separating? Thinking this would cost Clinton the election?

Is Clinton really the only person to ever have someone on her campaign personally connected to an adulterous perv? How was it reasonable to expect in 2015 that Abedin (being generally perceived as being wronged by Weiner rather than at fault herself) would bring down Clinton's campaign? And particularly that it's merely the stronger association with Clinton that would've been prevented, since those emails were already on Weiner's laptop? That, as you say, it's that the headlines would say "Clinton's aide, Huma Abedin" rather than "Clinton's former aide at State, Huma Abedin" which would make a big difference. Such a big difference that it would be her biggest mistake.

The idea that Clinton or Democrats generally should jettison anyone that the media, particularly the Republicans and their media arm, Fox News, might make an issue out of is how you get things like Shirley Sherrod and ACORN destroyed by lying racist ratfuckers like Breitbart and James O'Keefe. I'm not sure that capitulating to this kind of bullshit is what they should do. Defensively jettisoning anyone who might have "bad optics" even by association is just a recipe for letting Republicans make your staffing decisions. Which is what you're advocating here, because the idea that they'd be searching Weiner's laptop and find that Abedin had checked her mail on it and then the FBI director would violate protocol and release a letter 10 days before the election which would be used to imply criminality on Clinton's part (while not revealing the existence of a far more serious investigation of Trump's campaign!) AND that the email bullshit would've been inexplicably the biggest, most covered issue of the campaign, such that it would cost her the election... expecting that in 2015 is hardly the most obvious thing. So I can't agree that it was the biggest unforced error.

Meanwhile, the collection of idiots, freaks, grifters and foreign agents in Trump's campaign didn't bring him down.

What Democrats and those on the left should do, which I've been saying while davidm calls me an idiot Hillary worshiper despite the fact that I keep on pointing out the instances where the same patterns play out with other issues (including his own pet issues), other Democrats and others on the left, is strongly and repeatedly criticize the media whenever they go along with this kind of bullshit instead of letting the GOP control the media playing field.

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  #4464  
Old 01-03-2018, 02:49 AM
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I recall a sinking feeling when the Comey letter came out. But you had one when Weiner and Abedin were separating? Thinking this would cost Clinton the election?

Is Clinton really the only person to ever have someone on her campaign personally connected to an adulterous perv? How was it reasonable to expect in 2015 that Abedin (being generally perceived as being wronged by Weiner rather than at fault herself) would bring down Clinton's campaign? And particularly that it's merely the stronger association with Clinton that would've been prevented, since those emails were already on Weiner's laptop? That, as you say, it's that the headlines would say "Clinton's aide, Huma Abedin" rather than "Clinton's former aide at State, Huma Abedin" which would make a big difference. Such a big difference that it would be her biggest mistake.

The idea that Clinton or Democrats generally should jettison anyone that the media, particularly the Republicans and their media arm, Fox News, might make an issue out of is how you get things like Shirley Sherrod and ACORN destroyed by lying racist ratfuckers like Breitbart and James O'Keefe. I'm not sure that capitulating to this kind of bullshit is what they should do. Defensively jettisoning anyone who might have "bad optics" even by association is just a recipe for letting Republicans make your staffing decisions. Which is what you're advocating here, because the idea that they'd be searching Weiner's laptop and find that Abedin had checked her mail on it and then the FBI director would violate protocol and release a letter 10 days before the election which would be used to imply criminality on Clinton's part (while not revealing the existence of a far more serious investigation of Trump's campaign!) AND that the email bullshit would've been inexplicably the biggest, most covered issue of the campaign, such that it would cost her the election... expecting that in 2015 is hardly the most obvious thing. So I can't agree that it was the biggest unforced error.

Meanwhile, the collection of idiots, freaks, grifters and foreign agents in Trump's campaign didn't bring him down.

What Democrats and those on the left should do, which I've been saying while davidm calls me an idiot Hillary worshiper despite the fact that I keep on pointing out the instances where the same patterns play out with other issues (including his own pet issues), other Democrats and others on the left, is strongly and repeatedly criticize the media whenever they go along with this kind of bullshit instead of letting the GOP control the media playing field.
No! When Comey announced the thing about Clinton's emails on Weiner's computer a very short while before election day. Two old truism's that sound ridiculous but are really quite sound... timing is everything, and perception is everything, especially when they both go terribly wrong in tandem.

I think swing voters really were put off by the last minute outburst over email weiner huma gate.
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Old 01-03-2018, 03:31 AM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

But again: What could have been done by that point? The emails at issue were from 2011 or something. Weiner wasn't even outed as a perv until after that. If Hillary had released Huma because of her husband's conduct, not only would it have not actually solved the problem, but she would've received criticism for firing someone for their spouse's conduct - and would probably have been called hypocritical after she'd forgiven Bill for his infidelity (not that that's really anyone's fucking business but her own). And, again, those emails would still have been there. It wouldn't have made the slightest bit of difference to the outcome, and it might've hurt her because of the public criticism she'd have gotten for firing a longtime aide over something the aide had no control over.

You're falling into a trap here that I see the media fall into all the time. At LGM it's named Murc's Law for (AFAIK) the person who put it into this succinct formulation: "Only Democrats have agency". The media covers stories this way incessantly, and you are uncritically accepting their framing. The media had agency in choosing how to cover stories; Republicans had agency in choosing what avenues of attack to use (and in choosing to collude with hostile foreign governments to win elections, to disenfranchise minority voters, to run a fascist with no experience in government, and so on); the FBI had agency in deciding to write a prejudicial letter eleven days before an election; and so on. The outcome of 2016 was the result of a lot of bad choices a lot of people made, and the vast majority of bad choices weren't Hillary's. There are a lot more people who deserve a lot more blame for how 2016 turned out, and firing Huma wouldn't have made one fucking bit of difference.
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  #4466  
Old 01-03-2018, 04:10 AM
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I think what we have is that you are looking at this as if everyone else is all sane and logical. They're not. US elections are essentially a propaganda war, and the Republicans are good at kicking our ass at it. Swing voters are going to vote for whoever got in the last, best punch, and some blurby catch memes, not vote based on any reasoned consideration of esoteric policy stances.

The media is going to do what they do, not what we want them to do. Optics are important! Carrying around people on your campaign who could blow up in your face at just the wrong moment is an avoidable risk that should be avoided. Whatever embarrasing things that happened years ago, agree, can't be undone. Keeping people on your campaign right up to the election who are tied to those events, completely avoidable.
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Old 01-03-2018, 04:33 AM
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I think what we have is that you are looking at this as if everyone else is all sane and logical. They're not. US elections are essentially a propaganda war, and the Republicans are good at kicking our ass at it.
But what you're advocating bears little resemblance to how Republicans win the propaganda wars! They don't jettison a lot of people who deserve to be jettisoned, and especially not for the kind of stuff you're saying to fire Abedin for. They usually don't quit when they're the pervs, much less because their spouse is.

Scott DesJarlais? Pro-life Republican, but it was revealed he had been cheating on his wife with a patient (he's also a doctor) and asked her to get an abortion. He's still in Congress.

David Vitter? Frequented prostitutes, cheating on his wife, and reportedly enjoyed diaper play. He got re-elected.

And of course, Donald Trump.

#metoo might change some of that, we've seen some Republicans brought down by similar stuff this year.

And I will grant you that gay Republicans frequently resign when they're outed, regardless of how bad their behavior actually is. Larry Craig was being kinda pervy, but not really that bad.

But anyway, you don't win the propaganda wars by surrendering. They win because they have propaganda networks and because they and those networks work the refs by criticizing the "lamestream media" constantly. The counter is to push back vigorously against conservative media bias, not to fire anyone the conservative media machine targets. Yeah you might need to cut your losses in some instances, but in 2015, it was not reasonable to do so. I mean, I can see not rehiring her for the Hillary 2020 campaign (not to say there's more than a trivial chance of her running again) but the argument in 2015 was very weak.
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Old 09-04-2018, 04:04 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

This, from one Umair Haque, looks interesting: What America Still Doesn't Understand About Fascism


From the linkPredatory capitalism degenerates into fascism, by creating the glittering expectation of riches, but the shattering reality of poverty.


Okay, I think we at :ff: already got that, but like the way he puts it and I like the things he says along the way.
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  #4469  
Old 09-04-2018, 08:01 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

That's a good article and I agree that a sudden (in a generation) threat of poverty is an important factor in America. I also go along with his dismissal of "identity politics" and "backlash against too much liberalism" as causes.

But I'm not ready to dismiss white fear. He only talks about the fear of becoming a minority, which isn't going to happen in Sweden but they still have extremism (which they certainly do), so it can't be a factor at all.

All white fear needs to be is the loss of (some of the) perceived unearned privilege. It doesn't need to be recognised as privilege or as unearned, just the threat of losing it (some of it).

Let's apply his Sweden, Italy, Poland, Hungary, and Russia test to the "shattering reality of poverty" cause. Sure, all developed countries have suffered to some extent since 2008, but how many of those countries are experiencing the threat of poverty? I need to know (nurse! get me stats, stat!) but I doubt it's strong enough to explain the Sweden Democrats, and I think actual conditions in Poland and Hungary have got a bit better if anything. From a low base; same in Russia.
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  #4470  
Old 09-04-2018, 09:38 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

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I think actual conditions in Poland and Hungary have got a bit better if anything. From a low base; same in Russia.
Side related note: Venezuela.

Venezuela has a massive pool of poor people and Chavismo tapped into that (And the nation's oil wells at the time of a huge price in oil spike). The floor was so low with the level of poverty we're talking about that any small improvement on the standard of living in the barrios.


Barrio

Health care, dental care, a little more food. Electricity. With high oil prices Chavez borrowed like a Saudi prince and skimmed just as much. A smaller group, the middle class, literate and skilled in their jobs could A: see the corruption going on at the higher levels and B: some panic about Them Poors Taking Our Shit.

The developments for the destitute made for a net gain overall welbeing for the 'average' Venezuelan, but after purging the middle class from their positions in skilled functions and replacing them with political lackies instead, and the subsequent fall of the price of oil, there they are. Once the destitute from neighbouring countries flocked to Venezuela, now Venezuelans are flowing out to Columbia or the Dutch islands in the Caribbean. And the already rich in Venezuela angle to loot more from the country... if they have the correct political connections, or have already fled to Miami/Spain.

My points here are:
-Populism takes a variety of different forms.
-Have a large enough pool of people who are poor, or think they are poor, and promise them the moon, any corruption will be forgiven for awhile at least.

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  #4471  
Old 09-04-2018, 09:53 PM
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

I've read, but I forget where, that recessions caused by financial crises are more likely to help right-wing parties than other types of recessions. For some reason. Which is kinda depressing because right-wing policies are also more likely to cause them...

In the 2016 election, there was a much stronger correlation of demographic change to Trump votes than of demographic diversity. Areas in places like Iowa or Pennsylvania (aside from Philly and Pittsburgh) that have been getting significant Hispanic immigration for the first time swung towards Trump. By contrast, California, Arizona and Texas, states with large (and still growing) Hispanic populations swung towards the Democrats. But going from a lot of Hispanics to slightly more Hispanics is not as jarring a change to people in Arizona as going from basically no Hispanics to enough Hispanics that they have their own neighborhoods or are the majority in the small town around a factory/meat processing plant/whatever as happened in places in Iowa. Arizona is likely to be majority-minority in the next decade, and Texas already is. Meanwhile, even though there have been changes in Iowa, non-Hispanic whites are still around 90% of the population. Changes from under 3% Hispanic in 2000 to 5.5% in 2016 seem to have made more of an impression than larger "absolute" demographic changes in other states.

That correlation seems like it would do a better job of explaining what's happening in places like Sweden. Sweden is in no danger of becoming majority non-white or even majority non-Swedish. But the number of immigrants has increased significantly. And they took ~100k Syrian refugees in just one year, which is not a tiny amount given the population of Sweden.

It's also the case that people systematically overestimate the size of minority populations. Surveys of European countries found that people thought the minority populations like Muslims were larger than they are, by double or more.

That said, these things probably have multiple explanations. Russia and especially Poland have a lot less immigration than Sweden.
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Old 09-05-2018, 09:54 PM
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erimir erimir is offline
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Default Re: 2016 Presidential Race

Also relevant thread:


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