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  #51  
Old 01-25-2013, 04:28 PM
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Default Re: GOP owes house majority to gerrymander

And now looking to rig national elections so that the popular vote is almost sure to lose! Yeah that's gonna go over well. :rolleyes:

First Thoughts: Changing the rules, not the party - First Read

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In an interview earlier this month with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus -- who’s expected to win re-election as RNC chair today in Charlotte -- appeared to bless these changes to the Electoral College system. "I think it's something that a lot of states that have been consistently blue that are fully controlled red ought to be looking at," Priebus said, but he also added: "It's not my decision that can come from the RNC, that's for sure." But these proposed changes are shortsighted for two reasons. One, the Republicans pushing them are all but acknowledging that their party problems heading into 2016 are so significant that they have to change the rules in order to win. In other words, they are throwing in the towel and trying to rig the system. Two, the proposed changes would only speed up efforts to have the popular vote -- and not the Electoral College -- decide presidential contests, because many would see that as a fairer system. So Republicans need to ask themselves this question: Do they want the current Electoral College system, or do they want the popular vote? And a final question here: Where are the big leaders of the party on this issue? Haley Barbour? Jeb Bush? George W. Bush?
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  #52  
Old 11-22-2016, 01:17 AM
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Default Re: GOP owes house majority to gerrymander

Relief may be on the horizon, but probably not, since the republicans are apparently going to get away with stealing Obama's rightful SCOTUS appointee.

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In 2012, when Republicans earned just 48.6 percent of the vote, they won 60 seats in the 99 seat Assembly. Two years later, when the increased their share of the vote to 52 percent, they won 63 of the 99 seats.
Indeed, one expert testified that, even if Democrats won 54 percent of the votes, they still would only win 45 seats — giving Republicans the other 54.
The fact that the map was drawn with the intent of rigging the assembly for Republicans, and the fact that it achieved this goal in spades — combined with the fact the mapmakers rejected other proposed maps that “would have achieved the legislature’s valid districting goals while generating a substantially smaller partisan advantage” — renders the maps unconstitutional.
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  #53  
Old 12-23-2016, 06:05 PM
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Default Re: GOP owes house majority to gerrymander

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Originally Posted by Jerome View Post
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Ohio Republicans have made the redistricting process work to their advantage in recent years after gaining full control of the process in both 2000 and 2010.
The voters elected these people, what is the problem?
Because they then proceeded to choose their voters. Something that you think is OK when the Republicans do it but not when the Democrats do it. You can't hide what you've posted about pro-Democratic gerrymandering in Maryland and Illinois.
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  #54  
Old 12-23-2016, 06:23 PM
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Default Re: GOP owes house majority to gerrymander

Referring back to the OP, the Boston Globe published the district-by-district results of the 2012 House elections, and I crunched the numbers with some proportional-representation code that I had written. My results:
  • District-by-district: GOP 234, Dem 201
  • State-by-state:
    • Two main parties only: GOP 220, Dem 215
    • Third parties lumped: GOP 219, Dem 213, others 3
    • Third parties separate: GOP 219, Dem 213, others 3
  • Overall:
    • Two main parties only: Dem 220, GOP 215
    • Third parties lumped: Dem 213, GOP 210, others 12
    • Third parties separate: Dem 215, GOP 211, others 9
So the GOP's edge is:
  • District-by-district: +33
  • State-by-state: +5
  • Overall: -5
(other parties ignored)

My algorithm: rounding down followed by D'Hondt.
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  #55  
Old 12-27-2016, 03:35 PM
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Default Re: GOP owes house majority to gerrymander

Here's what I think about gerrymandering:
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  #56  
Old 12-27-2016, 07:33 PM
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Default Re: GOP owes house majority to gerrymander

All of the math speculation is assuming voter behavior would not change.

For example, in Maryland the gerrymandered districts heavily favor democrats, thus the republican turnout in these virtually uncontested districts is much lower than it would be if these districts were competitive.

Just like the electoral college system, voter behavior would change if the system was different, extrapolating current results under a different system is pure folly.
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  #57  
Old 12-27-2016, 07:39 PM
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Default Re: GOP owes house majority to gerrymander

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Originally Posted by lpetrich View Post
Because they then proceeded to choose their voters. Something that you think is OK when the Republicans do it but not when the Democrats do it. You can't hide what you've posted about pro-Democratic gerrymandering in Maryland and Illinois.
What are you on about?

Gerrymandering is regulated and mandated by federal law.

The people elect the Governor and the state legislature.

The Governor with the legislature draw the districts under the guidance of federal law.

Looks like you are just bellyaching because the system is not currently favoring your chosen team.

How would you change the system? Would you keep the mandate to draw districts so that minority populations are over represented so as to not be under represented, as it is currently under federal law?
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  #58  
Old 01-01-2017, 11:35 AM
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Default Re: GOP owes house majority to gerrymander

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Originally Posted by Jerome View Post
All of the math speculation is assuming voter behavior would not change.

For example, in Maryland the gerrymandered districts heavily favor democrats, thus the republican turnout in these virtually uncontested districts is much lower than it would be if these districts were competitive.

Just like the electoral college system, voter behavior would change if the system was different, extrapolating current results under a different system is pure folly.
I disagree. Let's work out the numbers.

Let's say that Maryland Republicans feel less discouraged under proportional representation. One can estimate their discouragement by making it proportional to (Democrats' votes) - (Republicans' votes). Thus

R' = R + fd*(D - R)
D' = D

where fd is what I call a discouragement factor.

So R' - D' = (1 - fd)*(R - D)

Likewise if it's Republicans who are favored by gerrymandering. The behavior of the difference in votes is the same. Overall, this means that R and D votes will become more evenly matched.

It can go the other way. If Democrats are discouraged by complacency about the outcome, then we have

D' = D + fc*(D - R)

This makes R' - D' = (1 - fd + fc)*(R - D)
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  #59  
Old 01-01-2017, 01:29 PM
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Default Re: GOP owes house majority to gerrymander

:popcorn:

Truth and facts have little place in Jerome's world. I suspect he can't even see equations.
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  #60  
Old 01-01-2017, 03:16 PM
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Default Re: GOP owes house majority to gerrymander

Irrelevant nonsense without knowing the amount of discouragement based upon the change in the system you advocate.

For example, in a system without voting districts, in which the state's field of representatives was doled out proportionately based upon share of total vote would see virtually no discouragement of voters.

There would be incentive for all voters to cast a vote.
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  #61  
Old 01-01-2017, 03:38 PM
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Default Re: GOP owes house majority to gerrymander

Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeP View Post
:popcorn:

Truth and facts have little place in Jerome's world. I suspect he can't even see equations.
Remember, we are living in a post truth world now. :P
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  #62  
Old 09-05-2017, 04:49 AM
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Default Re: GOP owes house majority to gerrymander

Schwarzenegger's bipartisan next political act: Terminating gerrymandering - San Francisco Chronicle
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