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  #626  
Old 02-17-2019, 09:25 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

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  #627  
Old 02-18-2019, 03:45 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

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Ironically, in an analysis of a localized measles outbreak in France, nearly 74% of those infected by the virus were not vaccinated. And of those infected, 29% of the parents were anti-vaccine.
Huh?

So, 26% of those infected by the virus were vaccinated? That's a hellish high vaccine failure rate.
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  #628  
Old 02-18-2019, 03:58 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Whether that's really bad depends on the vaccination rate.
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  #629  
Old 02-18-2019, 04:10 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Herd immunity - Wikipedia

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Herd immunity is vulnerable to the free rider problem. Individuals who lack immunity, primarily those who choose not to vaccinate, free ride off the herd immunity created by those who are immune. As the number of free riders in a population increases, outbreaks of preventable diseases become more common and more severe due to loss of herd immunity.
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  #630  
Old 02-18-2019, 05:46 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Quote:
Originally Posted by erimir View Post
Whether that's really bad depends on the vaccination rate.
And on the size of the outbreak relative to the size of the total population. If the outbreak was, say, 500 cases in a city of 1,000,000 that was vaccinated at 80% we're only talking 130 out of 800,000 vaccinated people catching measles.
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  #631  
Old 02-18-2019, 11:53 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Quote:
Originally Posted by godfry n. glad View Post
Quote:
Ironically, in an analysis of a localized measles outbreak in France, nearly 74% of those infected by the virus were not vaccinated. And of those infected, 29% of the parents were anti-vaccine.
Huh?

So, 26% of those infected by the virus were vaccinated? That's a hellish high vaccine failure rate.

Those 26% are not the vaccine failure rate. Again, if you


(A) take the whole set of people who are vaccinated and look at the percentage of these who get sick afterwards, or


(B) take the set of people who get sick and look at the percentage of these who have been vaccinated before,


those are conceptually two completely different numbers.



Quote:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by godfry n. glad View Post
So in any random exposed population, how many vaccinated individuals would you expect to develop the infection?
Obviously, that depends on the percentage of vaccinated people in that population. Let's say 91% are vaccinated, the vaccine has a failure rate of 5% and 90% of unvaccinated people get the disease.

Then
P(sick | vaccinated) = 5%.
P(vaccinated | sick) = P(vaccinated and sick) / P(sick) = 0.91 * 0.05 / (0.91 * 0.05 + 0.09 * 0.9) = (approx.) 0.36 = 36%

If you assume that everyone is vaccinated and the vaccine has a non-zero failure rate, you would get that 100% of those infected were vaccinated.
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  #632  
Old 02-18-2019, 04:27 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

If 74% of those who were infected were unvaccinated, then there remains 26% of those who were infected....who were, what?
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Old 02-18-2019, 05:56 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Quote:
Originally Posted by godfry n. glad View Post
If 74% of those who were infected were unvaccinated, then there remains 26% of those who were infected....who were, what?

What is your point godfry?

No one is denying that 26% of the people infected were vaccinated.

Are you not aware that the vaccination isn't 100% effective? Have you read the replies at all?

If 100% of people were vaccinated then - OMG ALL 100%!?!??!? - of the infected would have been vaccinated. So fucking what?

What is your point?
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  #634  
Old 02-18-2019, 06:55 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Quote:
Originally Posted by godfry n. glad View Post
Quote:
Ironically, in an analysis of a localized measles outbreak in France, nearly 74% of those infected by the virus were not vaccinated. And of those infected, 29% of the parents were anti-vaccine.
Huh?

So, 26% of those infected by the virus were vaccinated? That's a hellish high vaccine failure rate.
The fraction of pregnant people that are women is quite different to the fraction of women that are pregnant. You are making this classic reasoning error.
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  #635  
Old 02-18-2019, 09:33 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Quote:
Originally Posted by erimir View Post
Whether that's really bad depends on the vaccination rate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by But View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by godfry n. glad View Post
So in any random exposed population, how many vaccinated individuals would you expect to develop the infection?
Obviously, that depends on the percentage of vaccinated people in that population. Let's say 91% are vaccinated, the vaccine has a failure rate of 5% and 90% of unvaccinated people get the disease.

Then
P(sick | vaccinated) = 5%.
P(vaccinated | sick) = P(vaccinated and sick) / P(sick) = 0.91 * 0.05 / (0.91 * 0.05 + 0.09 * 0.9) = (approx.) 0.36 = 36%

If you assume that everyone is vaccinated and the vaccine has a non-zero failure rate, you would get that 100% of those infected were vaccinated.
I didn't feel like doing the math or really explaining what I meant, but But apparently had already explained it.

This is similar to the difference between sensitivity and specificity and similar measures in terms of medical tests.

-Given a person who has the condition, the likelihood the test will return a positive (sensitivity)
-Given a person who does not have the condition, the likelihood the test will return a negative (specificity)
-Given a person who has tested positive, the likelihood the person indeed has the condition (positive predictive value)
-Given a person who has tested negative, the likelihood the person indeed does not have the condition (negative predictive value)

These are very different numbers. Sensitivity and specificity are not affected by the condition's prevalence in the population, while predictive values are. If you test a random person in the US for HIV, and you get a positive, the person still probably does not have HIV. If you test a random person in Botswana, that would not be the case, because the infection rate is much higher there.

Vaccines obviously are not the same as diagnostic tests, but the mathematical relationships are similar. The failure rate is a measure solely related to the vaccine, but the percentage of infected who are vaccinated is strongly affected by the vaccination rate in the population.

To give the sort of opposite of slimshady's point - suppose that only a hundred people in France were vaccinated, and all of them caught measles, while a million people overall were infected. That would mean 99.99% of the infected were unvaccinated and 0.01% were vaccinated. Would you conclude from that that the vaccine is 99.99% effective? That would clearly be ludicrous.
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  #636  
Old 02-27-2020, 06:25 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

In last week's Economist: Peter Hotez, vaccine campaigner - Anger in a time of autism | United States | The Economist I came across this:
Quote:
Tara Smith, at Kent State University, who studied how to address the spectrum of outright vaccine deniers, the vaccine-hesitant and merely curious “lurkers”, says parents almost never lack facts. Instead they are stirred by emotional anecdotes, especially the most egregious tales of patient harm.
And I thought I know that name! :cheerful:

Roland98, who hasn't posted here for years :girlscientist:
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  #637  
Old 03-06-2020, 11:32 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Excellent bump, Joe! It's good to be reminded that Roland98 was a top notch poster, and that Vaccine Guy was entertainingly stupid.
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  #638  
Old 01-13-2021, 10:09 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

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  #639  
Old 05-09-2023, 09:59 PM
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Default This thread is more than 846 days old

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Ranger View Post
Part of the problem with influenza is that there are so many different viral strains -- and they mutate so rapidly -- that by the time a vaccine for the latest strain is widely available, it may be of limited utility. That is, indeed, something that isn't exactly widely advertised.
The same is true for the multitude of Coronavirus

This fact used to be the reason why nobody even tries to make a cold vaccine, or almost every other Coronavirus

That being said, can anyone here explain how you got rid of Dr X?
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  #640  
Old 05-09-2023, 10:45 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Whenever male/gender-unknown posters called him out on his bullshit, Dr. X put them on ignore.

When a couple of female posters did the same, he threw a hissy fit, deleted all his articles, and left.
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  #641  
Old 05-10-2023, 06:51 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sock Puppet View Post
Whenever male/gender-unknown posters called him out on his bullshit, Dr. X put them on ignore.

When a couple of female posters did the same, he threw a hissy fit, deleted all his articles, and left.
I ran into him elsewhere, and I got to tell you, I think I know who is the person with his hand up that puppets ass.
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  #642  
Old 05-11-2023, 05:04 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

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Originally Posted by -FX- View Post
I ran into him elsewhere, and I got to tell you, I think I know who is the person with his hand up that puppets ass.
Is it Matlock? I bet it's Matlock. :unnod:
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  #643  
Old 05-12-2023, 05:24 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism


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  #644  
Old 07-23-2023, 12:30 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Quote:
Originally Posted by godfry n. glad View Post
Quote:
Ironically, in an analysis of a localized measles outbreak in France, nearly 74% of those infected by the virus were not vaccinated. And of those infected, 29% of the parents were anti-vaccine.
Huh?

So, 26% of those infected by the virus were vaccinated? That's a hellish high vaccine failure rate.
It is indeed. The official failure rate is around 3%

Quote:
Very few people—about three out of 100—who get two doses of measles vaccine will still get measles if exposed to the virus. Experts aren't sure why. It could be that their immune systems didn't respond as well as they should have to the vaccine.
CDC
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Old 07-23-2023, 12:33 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

The failure rate for the smallpox vaccine was estimated to be 5% to 7%

A big difference win that case was failure usually meant an infection (live virus), as well as spreading smallpox to other people who had no immunity. There is a large entry in the medical guide from 1960 on how to treat vaccine induced smallpox.

Considering the number of people given the vaccine, it was a huge number of infections, and deaths.

But well worth it for those who benefited from immunity.

The Polio vaccines was a different story.
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  #646  
Old 07-23-2023, 05:00 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

So, this was thoroughly hashed out a decade ago. Why do you bring it up now?
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  #647  
Old 07-23-2023, 05:09 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Attention.
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  #648  
Old 07-23-2023, 05:11 PM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Deficit
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  #649  
Old 09-06-2023, 01:36 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

It’s been awhile, I wonder how Mercola is doing…

YouTube under no obligation to host anti-vaccine advocate’s videos, court says | Ars Technica

Arstech Mercola had tried to argue that YouTube owed him more than $75,000 in damages for breaching its own user contract and denying him access to his videos. However, in an order dismissing Mercola's complaint, US magistrate judge Laurel Beeler wrote that according to the contract Mercola signed, YouTube was "under no obligation to host" Mercola's content after terminating his channel in 2021 "for violating YouTube’s Community Guidelines by posting medical misinformation about COVID-19 and vaccines."

:lol:
It sounds like he had no backup and thus lost 15+ years of Vax misinformation.
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  #650  
Old 09-06-2023, 06:02 AM
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Default Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism

Is a loss of misinformation a gain of information?
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