Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism
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Ironically, in an analysis of a localized measles outbreak in France, nearly 74% of those infected by the virus were not vaccinated. And of those infected, 29% of the parents were anti-vaccine.
Huh?
So, 26% of those infected by the virus were vaccinated? That's a hellish high vaccine failure rate.
Herd immunity is vulnerable to the free rider problem. Individuals who lack immunity, primarily those who choose not to vaccinate, free ride off the herd immunity created by those who are immune. As the number of free riders in a population increases, outbreaks of preventable diseases become more common and more severe due to loss of herd immunity.
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Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism
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Originally Posted by erimir
Whether that's really bad depends on the vaccination rate.
And on the size of the outbreak relative to the size of the total population. If the outbreak was, say, 500 cases in a city of 1,000,000 that was vaccinated at 80% we're only talking 130 out of 800,000 vaccinated people catching measles.
Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism
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Originally Posted by godfry n. glad
Quote:
Ironically, in an analysis of a localized measles outbreak in France, nearly 74% of those infected by the virus were not vaccinated. And of those infected, 29% of the parents were anti-vaccine.
Huh?
So, 26% of those infected by the virus were vaccinated? That's a hellish high vaccine failure rate.
Those 26% are not the vaccine failure rate. Again, if you
(A) take the whole set of people who are vaccinated and look at the percentage of these who get sick afterwards, or
(B) take the set of people who get sick and look at the percentage of these who have been vaccinated before,
those are conceptually two completely different numbers.
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Originally Posted by But
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Originally Posted by godfry n. glad
So in any random exposed population, how many vaccinated individuals would you expect to develop the infection?
Obviously, that depends on the percentage of vaccinated people in that population. Let's say 91% are vaccinated, the vaccine has a failure rate of 5% and 90% of unvaccinated people get the disease.
Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism
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Originally Posted by godfry n. glad
Quote:
Ironically, in an analysis of a localized measles outbreak in France, nearly 74% of those infected by the virus were not vaccinated. And of those infected, 29% of the parents were anti-vaccine.
Huh?
So, 26% of those infected by the virus were vaccinated? That's a hellish high vaccine failure rate.
The fraction of pregnant people that are women is quite different to the fraction of women that are pregnant. You are making this classic reasoning error.
__________________ The miracle of the appropriateness of the language of mathematics for the formulation of the laws of physics is a wonderful gift which we neither understand nor deserve. -Eugene Wigner
Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism
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Originally Posted by erimir
Whether that's really bad depends on the vaccination rate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by But
Quote:
Originally Posted by godfry n. glad
So in any random exposed population, how many vaccinated individuals would you expect to develop the infection?
Obviously, that depends on the percentage of vaccinated people in that population. Let's say 91% are vaccinated, the vaccine has a failure rate of 5% and 90% of unvaccinated people get the disease.
If you assume that everyone is vaccinated and the vaccine has a non-zero failure rate, you would get that 100% of those infected were vaccinated.
I didn't feel like doing the math or really explaining what I meant, but But apparently had already explained it.
This is similar to the difference between sensitivity and specificity and similar measures in terms of medical tests.
-Given a person who has the condition, the likelihood the test will return a positive (sensitivity)
-Given a person who does not have the condition, the likelihood the test will return a negative (specificity)
-Given a person who has tested positive, the likelihood the person indeed has the condition (positive predictive value)
-Given a person who has tested negative, the likelihood the person indeed does not have the condition (negative predictive value)
These are very different numbers. Sensitivity and specificity are not affected by the condition's prevalence in the population, while predictive values are. If you test a random person in the US for HIV, and you get a positive, the person still probably does not have HIV. If you test a random person in Botswana, that would not be the case, because the infection rate is much higher there.
Vaccines obviously are not the same as diagnostic tests, but the mathematical relationships are similar. The failure rate is a measure solely related to the vaccine, but the percentage of infected who are vaccinated is strongly affected by the vaccination rate in the population.
To give the sort of opposite of slimshady's point - suppose that only a hundred people in France were vaccinated, and all of them caught measles, while a million people overall were infected. That would mean 99.99% of the infected were unvaccinated and 0.01% were vaccinated. Would you conclude from that that the vaccine is 99.99% effective? That would clearly be ludicrous.
Tara Smith, at Kent State University, who studied how to address the spectrum of outright vaccine deniers, the vaccine-hesitant and merely curious “lurkers”, says parents almost never lack facts. Instead they are stirred by emotional anecdotes, especially the most egregious tales of patient harm.
Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism
Excellent bump, Joe! It's good to be reminded that Roland98 was a top notch poster, and that Vaccine Guy was entertainingly stupid.
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Part of the problem with influenza is that there are so many different viral strains -- and they mutate so rapidly -- that by the time a vaccine for the latest strain is widely available, it may be of limited utility. That is, indeed, something that isn't exactly widely advertised.
The same is true for the multitude of Coronavirus
This fact used to be the reason why nobody even tries to make a cold vaccine, or almost every other Coronavirus
That being said, can anyone here explain how you got rid of Dr X?
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Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism
Whenever male/gender-unknown posters called him out on his bullshit, Dr. X put them on ignore.
When a couple of female posters did the same, he threw a hissy fit, deleted all his articles, and left.
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Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism
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Originally Posted by Sock Puppet
Whenever male/gender-unknown posters called him out on his bullshit, Dr. X put them on ignore.
When a couple of female posters did the same, he threw a hissy fit, deleted all his articles, and left.
I ran into him elsewhere, and I got to tell you, I think I know who is the person with his hand up that puppets ass.
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"Have no respect whatsoever for authority; forget who said it and instead look what he starts with, where he ends up, and ask yourself, "Is it reasonable?""
Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism
__________________
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis D. Brandeis
"Psychos do not explode when sunlight hits them, I don't give a fuck how crazy they are." ~ S. Gecko
Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism
Quote:
Originally Posted by godfry n. glad
Quote:
Ironically, in an analysis of a localized measles outbreak in France, nearly 74% of those infected by the virus were not vaccinated. And of those infected, 29% of the parents were anti-vaccine.
Huh?
So, 26% of those infected by the virus were vaccinated? That's a hellish high vaccine failure rate.
It is indeed. The official failure rate is around 3%
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Very few people—about three out of 100—who get two doses of measles vaccine will still get measles if exposed to the virus. Experts aren't sure why. It could be that their immune systems didn't respond as well as they should have to the vaccine.
__________________
"Have no respect whatsoever for authority; forget who said it and instead look what he starts with, where he ends up, and ask yourself, "Is it reasonable?""
Re: This Just in! Vaccines STILL Do Not Cause Autism
The failure rate for the smallpox vaccine was estimated to be 5% to 7%
A big difference win that case was failure usually meant an infection (live virus), as well as spreading smallpox to other people who had no immunity. There is a large entry in the medical guide from 1960 on how to treat vaccine induced smallpox.
Considering the number of people given the vaccine, it was a huge number of infections, and deaths.
But well worth it for those who benefited from immunity.
The Polio vaccines was a different story.
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"Have no respect whatsoever for authority; forget who said it and instead look what he starts with, where he ends up, and ask yourself, "Is it reasonable?""