The Econogeddon...Supply Side Karma

[godfry n. glad]

Well...I've been fearing the worst and a clear sign came to the Puddle City area this morning in the bOregonian. The looming depression comes home with the announcement that Intel will cut back jobs and 1,000 of those jobs will come from the westside Intel operations here in the Puddle City suburbs.

Ouch.

That's our manufacturing base. For each job lost there, there is a multiplication factor that means three to four other jobs will be lost as a result of those thousand going down the tubes. In turn, each of the jobs lost in other places because of the Intel reductions will create more reductions, as those reliant upon the business of those will need to pare their workers.

Does anyone else get the impression we're circling a drain somewhere?

For all this, we offer up paeans of gratitude to the 'free market' globalists who demanded unrestrained operation and no oversight and the ability to practically print their own money. Inadequate controls and failure to give due respect to the other side of the Keynesian hypothesis, along with greed and pure idiocy, has allowed the Republican Party...the former voice of fiscal restraint...to bring us to this point (with willful cooperation of the Democratic Party, of course).

[Crumb]

MS also announced 5,000 layoffs. So it ain't any better up north.

[chunksmediocrites]

OHSU is cutting a thousand jobs while they try to weasel out of their union contracts. A friend there says his department is on the platter to be completely laid-off and then have them all re-apply for fewer positions at less pay and benefits. There is still a pretty good injection of venture capital into Oregon, but with house construction slumping, until public work projects kick in I assume we'll hit 11 or 12% unemployment in a few months.

[godfry n. glad]

Oh, man, Chunks....You don't want me ranting and railing about OHSU....the bastards!

Every time OHSU goes into contract negotiations, the executive team announces a major institutional economic distaster. They've been running the fear and terror through the campus for a couple of weeks now. They've got to get all their folks writing the state legislature to put OHSU on the public dole in a much, much bigger way (despite all the historical assurances by executives to the state that they 'don't need state assistance' and need to operate without the constraints of the State System of Higher Education and whatever set of morals it happens to have) so they need to instill the fear of job loss and then tell them that they are begging the legislature for help.

Jeebus, they could save a million per annum by laying off two lying bastard vice presidents, probably even more when one takes into consideration perquisites, benefits, and bonuses. Will they? No...They'll lay off dental assistants, transport specialists, certified nursing assistants and student employees....all the people at the bottom....first. It's only when true professionals end up handling ends up that they are wiping clean of fecal matter, and taking their valuable time away from the golf course, that medical types recognize the need for support staff.

[ms_ann_thrope]

Originally Posted by godfry n. glad

Well...I've been fearing the worst and a clear sign came to the Puddle City area this morning in the bOregonian. The looming depression comes home with the announcement that Intel will cut back jobs and 1,000 of those jobs will come from the westside Intel operations here in the Puddle City suburbs.

Ouch.

That's our manufacturing base. For each job lost there, there is a multiplication factor that means three to four other jobs will be lost as a result of those thousand going down the tubes. In turn, each of the jobs lost in other places because of the Intel reductions will create more reductions, as those reliant upon the business of those will need to pare their workers.

But... but... there'll still be about 14,000 other Intel employees left in the Hillsboro area.

[godfry n. glad]

Originally Posted by ms_ann_thrope

But... but... there'll still be about 14,000 other Intel employees left in the Hillsboro area.

We've only just begun...

It's not decapitation, but one in fifteen employees is still 'ouch'.

[seebs]

Among people I know, employment is up compared to, say, two years ago -- while a lot of large companies have been laying people off, a lot of startups have been forming, and some of them are doing quite well.

It's very hard to get meaningful overall statistics, but historically, the usual trend is that larger companies get hammered and cut staff, while smaller and more agile companies adapt faster.

[Clutch Munny]

Originally Posted by godfry n. glad

the Republican Party...the former voice of fiscal restraint

When?

If you mean "voice" in the most minimal sense, then they've never stopped being the voice of fiscal restraint. If you mean that they used to exercise fiscal restraint... when?

[ChuckF]

Um...Calvin Coolidge?

[ChuckF]

Hey look what the National Republican Congressional Committee says:

Thanks to Republican economic policies, the U.S. economy is robust and job creation is strong.

So I don't know what you're worried about.

(link to blog post just in case they update this away.)

[Crumb]

[Ymir's blood]

Not only that, but President McCain is drawing up plans to drill for oil in Cloudcuckooland.

[Stormlight]

Originally Posted by ChuckF

Hey look what the National Republican Congressional Committee says

I just love the ever so "well-disguised" undertones in that link:

there is still more to do so that every American who wants a job can find one.

Because we all know that most of those that are unemployed are just lazy bums.

[Dingfod]

Who wrote that, Phil Gramm?

[godfry n. glad]

It's all in your heads.

[godfry n. glad]

Originally Posted by godfry n. glad

Oh, man, Chunks....You don't want me ranting and railing about OHSU....the bastards!

Every time OHSU goes into contract negotiations, the executive team announces a major institutional economic distaster. They've been running the fear and terror through the campus for a couple of weeks now. They've got to get all their folks writing the state legislature to put OHSU on the public dole in a much, much bigger way (despite all the historical assurances by executives to the state that they 'don't need state assistance' and need to operate without the constraints of the State System of Higher Education and whatever set of morals it happens to have) so they need to instill the fear of job loss and then tell them that they are begging the legislature for help.

Jeebus, they could save a million per annum by laying off two lying bastard vice presidents, probably even more when one takes into consideration perquisites, benefits, and bonuses. Will they? No...They'll lay off dental assistants, transport specialists, certified nursing assistants and student employees....all the people at the bottom....first. It's only when true professionals end up handling ends up that they are wiping clean of fecal matter, and taking their valuable time away from the golf course, that medical types recognize the need for support staff.

It seems somebody up on Pill Hill has a sense of humor: http://ohsunews.com/

[Qingdai]

I'm completely ready to dial you up godfry, just to hear you hum. I request the William Tell overture or Inna Gadda De Vida, your choice!

[Qingdai]

On a less silly note, I found myself screaming at the radio at this little gem of Heritage foundation propaganda.
Japan's lost decade (5:00) | PRI's The World

The claim that Japan had a hard time rebounding because they didn't lay off every worker they could made me scream.
Considering we live in an economy that is completely dependent on consumers buying crap and services, it seemed beyond nonsense.

[godfry n. glad]

Hey, hey....Starbucks announced the layoff of 6700 employees today.

That's what...less than one employee per outlet?

I certainly hope they have to close down the outlet inside the Forbidden City.

[Stormlight]

... and justice for all.

[Garnet]

Michigan's been circling the drain for a while:

Preliminary data for the third quarter of 2008 indicate 41 extended mass layoff actions by employers that resulted in 6,853 initial unemployment insurance claims being filed. This compares to 29 extended mass layoff actions and 8,039 initial unemployment insurance claims during the third quarter of 2007.

The on-going retrenchment in the automotive industry continued during the quarter with significant sales declines and production cutbacks. As a result, long-term layoff activity primarily occurred in the auto and related industries. These industries include plastics and rubber products, primary and fabricated metal products, machinery manufacturing, and transportation equipment manufacturing.

Michigan Labor Market Information, Mi Fast Facts, Mass Layoffs1 (parent site)

http://www.milmi.org/admin/uploadedP...4_MLS_QSUM.pdf (pdf from which I quoted)

[godfry n. glad]

Originally Posted by Garnet

Michigan's been circling the drain for a while

Indeed. I'd guess since about 1975, when the Detroit Landyacht builders failed to respond rationally to the 1973 Oil Embargo by OPEC and the subsequent 'Oil Crisis'. From then on, it was one long slide into oblivion as the foreign imports, which HAD appropriately responded, kicked the stool out from under them and they've been slowly choking to death ever since, thrashing and kicking all the way.

When I bought my first Toyota in 1977 (used, of course, a 1969 Corolla station wagon), I was something of a rare bird, an owner of a Japanese car. Hyundai was just a rumor back then. Nobody would ever have thought of buying a Korean car. Look at it now; most USers now drive foriegn imports.

[Corona688]

Having watched my dad drive the same car for decades, I never believed for a moment that automakers had sustainable market among the vast majority of the population. They depend on spendthrifts and industry, fair-weather friends at best.

[Dingfod]

Originally Posted by godfry n. glad

Look at it now; most USers now drive foriegn imports.

2008 is the first year U.S. automaker domestic sales were under 50% of the market (49.3% actually, 50.6% in 2007). Given that the average vehicle in America is 8.6 years old, I'd guess that the total number of U.S. automaker label cars and trucks outnumber foreign by considerable margin still.

[godfry n. glad]

Originally Posted by Dingfod

2008 is the first year U.S. automaker domestic sales were under 50% of the market (49.3% actually, 50.6% in 2007). Given that the average vehicle in America is 8.6 years old, I'd guess that the total number of U.S. automaker label cars and trucks outnumber foreign by considerable margin still.

Maybe where you're at.

What is the differential in vehicle life between foreign and domestic? Most of the high mileage vehicles I'm aware of don't tend to be domestic. Still, here in a major metro area on the west coast, I'd bet that foreign outnumbers domestic, easily. Then there is the question of how many domestic as versus foreign are fleet sales versus individual sales, nationwide. Most local and state governments are hamstrung by domestic purchase requirements. So are many US corporations. Lastly, how many Japanese cars are veiled American-made vehicles as versus American cars which are veiled Japanese-made vehicles? I suspect that is heavily skewed to the latter.

Even though the sheer numbers would show that American labels outnumber foreign, does that tell us anything useful about the whole ability of American automakers to design, produce and market vehicles for the American public, as versus foreign automakers? I don't think it so.

US automakers have lost market share continually since the mid-1970s. The one thing which really helped them survive was one of the most ill-concieved and implemented long-term investment plan (that of throwing all the money at SUVs and oversized metacontrol vehicles) of almost any durables producers I'm aware of....but then, maybe I haven't been paying close enough attention.

I think that the auto capitalists whimpering at Congress' door is far more telling. As somebody here said...if they need bailout, let them go to the petroleum industry. There is no shortage of assets and wealth sufficient to provide a bailout for an industry which has been such a loyal customer for so long. As I see it, it's a bad loan for the country. We, as a nation, cannot continue to give out bad loans to businesses which are so poorly run they cannot survive in the open market without government subsidy, and we're all set to give way too much to the financial sector.

If I err, I'm sure you'll set me straight.