Re: SCOTAL Itch
Well looks like the final vote will probably match the cloture vote, unless Avenatti actually has some evidence and a plan better than "get my face on TV".
Avenatti is a pretty good example of how proclaiming that Democrats need to be "fighters" and substitute passion for an actual plan doesn't actually do anything. What did Avenatti get for Democrats? Nothing except create a GOP talking point about a porn lawyer with uncorroborated allegations. Would've been better off with just Ford and Ramirez, or at minimum with Swetnick having a different lawyer.
But Murkowski being a no vote while Collins is a yes doesn't surprise me. She's more independent and has already won reelection twice without the wingnut base (lost the GOP nomination in 2010 and won as a write in, the Libertarian won 30% of the vote in 2016, which probably represented the most conservative third of the electorate). Manchin is polling almost 10 pts ahead of his GOP opponent, his vote doesn't make the difference between confirmation or not and he's protecting his reelection chances. But I'm sure he will be used as evidence that Democrats are worthless (1 out of 49) and ignore that red state Dems in Alabama, Indiana, Missouri, Montana and North Dakota all voted no. (And that's an especially risky vote for Donnelly and Heitkamp).
Fact is that Collins always wanted to vote yes and Kavanaugh was willing to offer the obvious bullshit to let her pretend to be an idiot and not know how he'd rule on abortion. And Flake was always a flake. I don't know what more could be done if hearing the pained pleas of rape survivors and being unable to even look them in the face wasn't enough for Flake. That's at least evidence that he isn't completely shameless. Which is probably why he's retiring. Too ashamed to actually go whole hog on Trump, but not so ashamed he won't vote for whatever Trump wants.
But there was always one neat trick that would allow 49 Democrats to beat 51 Republicans (or 50 and VP Pence) that is never specified but definitely exists (and how dare you ask me to explain what it is).
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