Re: Winnie the Flu
If it's true about the transmission rate being ~2 and it can be transmitted during the up to 14-day incubation period when victims show no symptoms, then it will soon spread worldwide. I'm waiting for the first detected cases to appear in India and Africa - at which point I expect the authorities to give up on attempting to contain the outbreak and revert to the, "Keep washing your hands, and try to keep away from other people" advice.
What we don't know yet is the mortality rate - it could be anything from less than 1 in 10,000 up to several percent, depending on how many people in China really have the virus but aren't showing symptoms, and how many of those who are already sick go on to die.
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