Why the Iraqi election is a waste of time

[Sauron]

Before I proceed to my main point, I just want to point out that Dick "I had other priorities" Cheney has finally made it to a war zone:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...121800474.html

Cheney Makes Visit to Iraq
Vice President Praises 'Remarkable' Turnout by Voters

By Jonathan Finer and Naseer Nouri
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, December 18, 2005; 3:51 PM

BAGHDAD, Dec. 18 -- Vice President Cheney, seeking to build on political momentum from Iraq's nationwide elections last week, made his first visit here in more than a decade Sunday, praising what he called the "remarkable" turnout by voters Thursday and telling troops that the country had "turned the corner."

After getting five deferments during the Vietnam war, he finally manages to haul his fat, gin-soaked ass out to Baghdad. I'm sure he couldn't wait to finally get back into the air conditioning.

Anyhow, the Administration is trying to pump up the elections in Iraq as proof of the success of their "democracy in the Middle East" planning. But as events have shown, the Bush administration predictions have little to do with Mideast realities, as most experts in Mideast policy know.

High voter turnout needs to be examined in the light of motivations. As a recent Mideast expert at the Univ. of Michigan, Juan Cole, pointed out on "The World", one has to take into account the reasons *why* people went to the polls.

* The Kurds went to the polls to preserve an independent Kurdish state in the north - something that they have had (courtesy of the no-fly zones) for about ten years now, and something which they have said is not negotiable;

* the Shi'a, relying upon their numerical superiority and living off years of pent-up humiliation, went to the polls in the hopes of setting up an Iranian-style Islamic state and finally getting revenge on their Sunni captors;

* the Sunnis went to the polls to stop the Shi'a and buy time for the homegrown insurgency. They have no problem using multiple means to achieve the same end. The model of the IRA is pivotal here: Sinn Fein became the political wing of the liberation movement, while the IRA dealt with military issues.

At the bottom line here, one has to realize that history is a cruel mistress. The British were in Iraq for thirty eight years. At the end of that time, there was still no democracy in Iraq, and no market-based economy. And that was during a time when the United Kingdom was able to plan on the scale of decades. How much less should our expectations be for the United States, which can only plan on the scale of annual quarters or at most years, and insists on wrapping things up (ready or not) in time for domestic elections?

There is nothing hopeful in these elections. If the Bush administration had actual Mideast experts as advisors -- instead of former petroleum executives and expatriate buffoons (Zalmay Khalilizad, Hamid Karzai, Ahmad Chalaby) -- then they might realize this. But their antipathy towards bad news makes that all but impossible.