Putin is an idiot

[Dingfod]

Originally Posted by TomJoe

Were we bluffing?

I believe so. As long NK has potential to launch nukes into Seoul or Tokyo, we're not going to do anything to them militarily. Without China's help, no economic sanctions are going to make things any worse than they already are in NK.

If so, we may as well send them a couple of long range nukes.

If you mean blow some up there, we're not going to do that either. Any threat to do so is empty. The potential repercussions are just too great.

[ChuckF]

Originally Posted by Dingfod

If you mean blow some up there, we're not going to do that either. Any threat to do so is empty. The potential repercussions are just too great.

Yes. US policy in Korea has been to avoid a shooting war at all costs. The "Axis of Evil" blather was for domestic consumption as part of the Iraq war-mongering.

As for why NK tested their nuke...I've not yet seen a convincing analysis and I'm not competent enough to make my own. There's so much about North Korean politics that we don't know - i.e. the condition of the regime - that I don't even know if such an analysis could be made, at least not on an unclassified level. I don't think there's a bluff/counterbluff dynamic. However, I think there is a strong case to be made that the regime is simply batshit insane. It's very hard to understand why they would do something so offensive to China and drive Beijing towards the west.

[Dingfod]

Originally Posted by ChuckF

I don't think there's a bluff/counterbluff dynamic. However, I think there is a strong case to be made that the regime is simply batshit insane. It's very hard to understand why they would do something so offensive to China and drive Beijing towards the west.

Oh, I think Bush's saber-rattling has everything to do with why they feel the need for such weaponry. "Somebody set us up the bomb, Bush reave us arone." And he will, unless he's as batshit crazy as Kim Jong Il.

[ChuckF]

Originally Posted by Dingfod

Oh, I think Bush's saber-rattling has everything to do with why they feel the need for such weaponry. "Somebody set us up the bomb, Bush reave us arone." And he will, unless he's as batshit crazy as Kim Jong Il.

Still not sure I buy it. The administration's bellicosity certainly hasn't helped, but I don't see a causal relationship. Kim Jong Il's regime has faced, since day one, a crisis of legitimacy. Since daddy died, sonnyboy (I'm talking about Kim Jong Il, not Shrub) lacks the Weberian sources of legitimacy: charisma, law, or tradition. Kim Il Sung had revolutionary charisma going for him. Kim Jong Il does not. It's always much harder for second generation revolutionaries to keep that going.

When a regime faces such a crisis of legitimacy (cf Stalin), it turns inward and relies on a highly developed state security apparatus to maintain power. It also actively seeks enemies abroad to legitimize its military posturing. Kim Jong Il has wanted nukes for a long time, and Kim Il Sung probably wanted them as soon as it became clear the USSR would be reluctant intercede for them. As for China though...why alienate the closest thing you've got to an ally...I'm missing something.

[TomJoe]

Originally Posted by Dingfod

If you mean blow some up there, we're not going to do that either. Any threat to do so is empty. The potential repercussions are just too great.

No, I meant give them long range nuculur (as Bush would say it) capability.