Climategate 2.0

[SR71]

Loss of Arctic sea ice speeds domino effect of warming temperatures at high latitudes

Werner's observation follows the announcement in September by the National Snow and Ice Data Center that the surface area of Arctic sea ice had reached a new low in 2012, breaking a previous record reached in 2007.
What the new data suggests, Werner said, is that the Arctic Ocean will likely be free of sea ice during summer in the next few decades, which may trigger significant changes in climate across the globe.

This is old news, the part on the lowered albedo results in increased absorption. The interesting part is that 2012 had a new low on ice extent. Maybe we already covered that, but it bears repeating in any case.

[SR71]

Satellites Show Renewed Warming in 2013, Drive Skeptics Ape

[Clutch Munny]

U.S. scientists report big jump in heat-trapping CO2 - Technology & Science - CBC News

The HIV is the same colour as the dark spirits!

[SR71]

Indeed. Along those same lines, new shipping lanes are predicted to open in the Arctic by mid century. Once again, this new work is just more support for news we have already heard.

By mid-century, even ordinary shipping vessels will be able to navigate previously inaccessible parts of the Arctic Ocean, and they will not need icebreakers to blaze their path as they do today, the researchers found.

By the time this happens, any hope of limiting delta T to less than 2 C will have melted, along with the sea ice. The ship will have sailed, literally.

[The Lone Ranger]

And since open water is much less reflective than is ice, melting of the Arctic ice almost-certainly accelerates the warming process.

[thedoc]

Well I could deal with less snow in the winter and lower heating bills. Summer heat isn't really a problem if everyone would just dress lighter. Does anyone think burning less fossil fuel to keep our homes warm in the winter is a bad idea, or snow makng travel difficult is a good idea?

[chunksmediocrites]

[SR71]

Originally Posted by thedoc

Well I could deal with less snow in the winter and lower heating bills. Summer heat isn't really a problem if everyone would just dress lighter. Does anyone think burning less fossil fuel to keep our homes warm in the winter is a bad idea, or snow makng travel difficult is a good idea?

The irony is that we might easily end up with snow storms of greater intensity than what we have now. Warmer, more humid air over the oceans carried over the (still sub-freezing) continents by the jet stream in winter might dump greater amounts of snow than normal. Greater pressure differentials are expected to be involved in that as well. Summer heat has been responsible for a number of deaths among the elderly in recent European heat waves. Much of Europe is not equipped for AC, because they haven't really needed it much before now. I lived in a house in Germany that was perfectly comfortable with no AC. Deaths from heat stress have also happened in the US in some heat waves. Dressing lighter only goes so far. After 100F or so, even healthy people are at risk of heat injuries.

In parts of the temperate zone where summer cooling is used, lower heating bills could be expected to be offset by higher cooling bills.

[SR71]

This study draws a straight line between global warming and Hurricane Sandy. They say the mechanism was last autumn's record Arctic ice melt. This is the first I recall where global warming has been specifically cited as a contributor to a particular event.

More Storms Like Sandy? Arctic Ice Loss Amplified Superstorm Sandy Violence

The researchers assert that the record-breaking sea ice loss from summer 2012, combined with the unusual atmospheric phenomena observed in late October, appear to be linked to global warming.
A strong atmospheric, high-pressure blocking pattern over Greenland and the northwest Atlantic prevented Hurricane Sandy from steering northeast and out to sea like most October hurricanes and tropical storms from the Caribbean. In fact, Sandy traveled up the Atlantic coast and turned left "toward the most populated area along the eastern seaboard" and converged with an extratropical cyclone; this, in turn, fed the weakening Hurricane Sandy and transformed it into a monster tempest.

[thedoc]

There are a lot of variables when it comes to climate change and so far most of the predictions by the fear-mongers have been based on a worst-case scenario. There have been periods of warmer climate in the Earths past that have not been the disaster as often described. It will be interesting to see what the Earth looks like when and if it ever gets out of the current ice age.

[Clutch Munny]

Originally Posted by thedoc

There are a lot of variables when it comes to climate change

[SR71]

Originally Posted by thedoc

There are a lot of variables when it comes to climate change

Yes? There are a lot of variables in many areas of research, biology for example. It doesn't make them necessarily less easily understood or more mysterious. It in no way precludes our ability to learn more about them. It just makes it more complicated.

and so far most of the predictions by the fear-mongers have been based on a worst-case scenario.

Examples?

There have been periods of warmer climate in the Earths past that have not been the disaster as often described.

Can you be more specific? Which periods? What was the human population then? What types of species survived the intervening changes?

It will be interesting to see what the Earth looks like when and if it ever gets out of the current ice age.

Ermm, okay... what is the current ice age named? When did it start? What would the natural forcing be to cause us to "get out of the current ice age" in the absence of humans?

[Adam]

We're trapped in an Ice Age! Save us, greenhouse gasses!

[thedoc]

Originally Posted by SR71

Examples?

Al Gore

[thedoc]

Originally Posted by SR71

Can you be more specific? Which periods? What was the human population then? What types of species survived the intervening changes?

The Jurassic and Cretaceous.

Jurassic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Cretaceous - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[Adam]

You forgot to answer the part about the human population who lived through those warm periods.

[thedoc]

Originally Posted by SR71

Ermm, okay... what is the current ice age named? When did it start? What would the natural forcing be to cause us to "get out of the current ice age" in the absence of humans?

The Holocene epoch which followed the Pleistocene and the Ice Age started about 2.6 million years ago. Without the Human presence the Earth might not get out of the current Ice Age. (Defined as permanent ice at the poles and the presence of year round Glaciers)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glacier

[thedoc]

Originally Posted by Adam

You forgot to answer the part about the human population who lived through those warm periods.

I'm waiting for them to answer my e-mail.

[SR71]

Originally Posted by thedoc

Al Gore

Al Gore made most of the predictions? I was not aware he published any studies. He did make a movie which could be said to have some sensationalized portions. To say that he is responsible for "most predictions" however, does not seem accurate.

[fragment]

edit - @thedoc

You've got your terms wrong. The current ice age began with the Pleistocene. The Holocene began at the start of the current interglacial.

If the ice age was completely ended, with no permanent ice at the poles, sea level would be something like 60m higher. That would be interesting, as in "may you live in interesting times".

Luckily we're probably not on a trajectory leading to that kind of absolute worst case scenario.

[SR71]

Originally Posted by thedoc

The Jurassic and Cretaceous.

Jurassic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Cretaceous - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Where were the continents? How much land was arable? How much was desert? What was global mean temperature? Were they conducive to the plants we depend on in modern agriculture? How many grains were there to cultivate? What types of animals flourished? What were their climatic limits? Did they overlap with those of modern species?

[thedoc]

Originally Posted by SR71

Where were the continents? How much land was arable? How much was desert? What was global mean temperature? Were they conducive to the plants we depend on in modern agriculture? How many grains were there to cultivate? What types of animals flourished? What were their climatic limits? Did they overlap with those of modern species?

On the Earth. All the arable land was arable. The dry parts. Close to average. Probably. All of them that were avalable at that time. The ones that didn't go extinct. The extremes that they could tolerate. Probably.

[ChuckF]

What color was the dinosaur HIV?

[chunksmediocrites]

Originally Posted by thedoc

The Jurassic and Cretaceous.

Jurassic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Cretaceous - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Gee, I wonder why the transitions that marked the ends of those periods were mass extinction events. The estimated percentage of species extinctions at the end of the Jurassic was 70%-75%. The end of the Cretaceous was 75%. Of all species. You know, when the climate changed.

Why anyone would suggest such an overblown descriptor as disastrous to describe three quarters of the existing species dying out in a relatively short geological period is indeed a fucking mystery. I mean a full 15% shy of literal decimation is p. good times.

The end of an era.

[thedoc]

Originally Posted by chunksmediocrites

Gee, I wonder why the transitions that marked the ends of those periods were mass extinction events. The estimated percentage of species extinctions at the end of the Jurassic was 70%-75%. The end of the Cretaceous was 75%. Of all species. You know, when the climate changed.

Why anyone would suggest such an overblown descriptor as disastrous to describe three quarters of the existing species dying out in a relatively short geological period is indeed a fucking mystery. I mean a full 15% shy of literal decimation is p. good times.

The end of an era.

How could a mass extinction that included you, be a disaster?