Mafia - Game III - Page 25

cappuccino · #**601** 08-16-2006, 05:00 PM

Very nice analysis, Tom. Except one problem. I'm not mob. And I see a way that the Mafia can take advantage of your analysis. Suppose that I don't get lynched today, then what's stopping the Mafia from killing you anyway? They don't care about me because I'm not one of them. If the other townies decide to follow your reasoning the next day then other innocent townies including myself will be killed.

Or maybe you won't be killed tonight because you're actually Mafia and you're leading the town right to their own grave.

Joshua Adams · #**602** 08-16-2006, 05:01 PM

I already did it for you Lees, look back a few posts.

Anyway. I need a job or something, but here goes:

I've compiled the voting records in yet a third variety, since it seems like a few of you could use something like that. This time, it's arranged by who received votes, so we can look at the bandwagons that formed. Be careful though, make sure that you aren't being deceived by an out-of-date vote (For instance, suppose that A votes for B, and then switches his vote. Later, C votes for B. It'll look like C was "following" A's vote if you aren't careful. Pay attention to the numbers).

A was voted for by B:

balluga...........beyelzu(12), cappuccino(23)

beyelzu...........Joshua Adams(1), MonCapitan2002(2), NC Kev(8), TomJoe(24), NC Kev(26), Julie(28), cappuccino(30), beyelzu(33), Leesifer(34), beyelzu(38)

cappuccino........beyelzu(7)

godfry n. glad....Sock Puppet(22), cappuccino(46), NC Kev(47), Leesifer(48), Julie(53), trillian(70), NC Kev(73)

Julie.............godfry n. glad(29)

Leesifer..........beyelzu(36), MonCapitan2002(37), Joshua Adams(42), slimshady2357(43), Adam(44), MonCapitan2002(67), Julie(71)

MonCapitan2002....slimshady2357(5), Sock Puppet(6), Nightson(10), Ensign Steve(11), Ensign Steve(59), Leesifer(60), TomJoe(61), Julie(62), NC Kev(64), cappuccino(65), MonCapitan2002(66)

NC Kev............beyelzu(32), godfry n. glad(40), Nightson(41), balluga(45), Ensign Steve(49), trillian(51), Joshua Adams(69), cappuccino(72)

Nightson..........trillian(9), Leesifer(16), Leesifer(21), trillian(55), Leesifer(58), slimshady2357(74), JoshUa Adams(75), trillian(76), Leesifer(77), TomJoe(78), NC Kev(79), Adam(80), Sock Puppet(81)

slimshady2357.....TomJoe(50)

Spenser...........godfry n. glad(15), TomJoe(17), Adam(18), Leesifer(19), NC Kev(20)

TomJoe............Adam(14)

trillian..........balluga(3), Nightson(4), slimshady2357(57)

13) Nightson unvotes trillian
25) balluga unvotes trillian
27) cappuccino unvotes balluga
31) godfry n. glad unvotes Julie
32) Joshua Adams unvotes beyelzu
39) Ensign Steve unvotes MonCapitan2002
52) Joshua Adams unvotes Leesifer
54) slimshady2357 unvotes Leesifer
56) Leesifer unvotes godfry n. glad
63) Adam unvotes Leesifer
68) MonCapitan2002 unvotes Leesifer

I've attached the other two records since using them in tandem makes it much easier to keep track of who changed their vote when, than just looking at this one.

balluga · #**603** 08-16-2006, 05:14 PM

After re-reading the last two days, I have to agree with what TomJoe is thinking. Who he suspects meshes with my feelings at this time. So unvote; vote: cappuccino. This is not based on the pronoun misuse, but general goings on in the thread.

Sock Puppet · #**604** 08-16-2006, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomJoe

Though I'm willing to put my neck on the line here because if I'm right, chances are the mafia will off me in retaliation tonight whether or not cappuccino is lynched. Though if he isn't lynched, and I die ... I strongly suggest you look immediately at him.

The problem with that is, if neither you nor capp are scum, then the mob could off you tonight as a means of getting us to lynch capp tomorrow. If capp is scum and you're not, they could leave you alive as a means of confounding your reasoning.

We have got to lynch mob or the traitor today. That ain't me. I'm actually somewhat in agreement with you about both Lees and capp, TJ. But you're not helping with your flimsy accusations against me. Not that losing me would be such a great tragedy, but at this point the town can't afford to lynch another innocent.

cappuccino · #**605** 08-16-2006, 05:22 PM

well I'm now 1 or 2 votes away from lynching...I've held out for as long as I could but it's time for me to come out.

I'm the cop. And I know Leesifer's a townie because I viewed her last night and she's innocent. Not a traitor, nada, nothing. Sorry guys.

Great job, Tom with your detective analysis. You totally blew it. I'm going to die tonight for certain but at least I can offer you my knowledge that Lees' innocent.

Joshua Adams · #**606** 08-16-2006, 05:22 PM

I hate it when people talk about how the mafia is going to off them! How many times has that happened this game, three? four? Can't you see it's pure, straight up WIFOM? They will do whatever the hell they want, just to confuse you, or whatever is consonsant with their goals. Posting your thoughts on it just gives them ammo to confound your argument, as Sock points out.

Joshua Adams · #**607** 08-16-2006, 05:23 PM

capp you only have 4 votes. Do what you will w/ that info.

edit: oh, nm. I always forget to update the little counter at the bottom. 5

cappuccino · #**608** 08-16-2006, 05:26 PM

No, I've got 5 votes now. I just counted them.

TomJoe · #**609** 08-16-2006, 05:27 PM

Heh, I figured you'd do that capp. Convenient you also just "happened" to view Leesifer too, eh?

You're lying.

balluga · #**610** 08-16-2006, 05:28 PM

Ok, then unvote, just to let things play out.

Sock Puppet · #**611** 08-16-2006, 05:29 PM

Well, shit. It was still 2 votes away, capp. After my colossal fuckup, I'm sure we would've given you a chance to claim at one vote away.

That is, if you're really the cop ... :narrow:

Joshua Adams · #**612** 08-16-2006, 05:29 PM

Yeah, I have the votes up to date. I thought maybe you'd edit your post before any scum saw it, but I was wrong about the number anyway. The town is fucked, as I've opined in the peanut gallery.

I still think trillian screams bad guy. Since the only people ahead of her in votes are you and Lees, I'm gonna make it official and vote: trillian.

cappuccino · #**613** 08-16-2006, 05:30 PM

Nope, I'm not lying. Sorry to rain on your parade Tom. I viewed Leesifer last night because so many people had suspicions about her and I myself wanted to know if she was mafia or the traitor. I never fully settled my doubts about her last day so that's why I decided to view her.

Whatever, I've told you what I know. If you believe I'm lying, fine, I don't give a crap what you think anymore.

Leesifer · #**614** 08-16-2006, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomJoe

Heh, I figured you'd do that capp. Convenient you also just "happened" to view Leesifer too, eh?

You're lying.

Christ, you're paranoid TJ. I think the role of mafia has gone to your head. :giggle:

cappuccino · #**615** 08-16-2006, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sock Puppet

Well, shit. It was still 2 votes away, capp. After my colossal fuckup, I'm sure we would've given you a chance to claim at one vote away.

That is, if you're really the cop ... :narrow:

2 votes or 1 votes or not...the stress' getting to me now. It seemed certain that you all would lynch me anyway, so I had to come out and get it over with. I'm wiped out from trying to play a special role without getting myself killed.

TomJoe · #**616** 08-16-2006, 05:34 PM

Well then, you're dead tonight. No way is the mob going to let you live, on the chance you finger one of them.

Coming out as the cop now is stupid. You do it to avoid the lynch, so that night the doc can protect you. Problem is, our doc is dead. You won't get a chance at a second look now because you outed yourself.

I assume our real cop would have figured that out. You sir, are no cop. You are most definitely mob now.

cappuccino · #**617** 08-16-2006, 05:37 PM

What the hell do you expect me to do? I'm on the verge of being lynched, I'm not supposed to come out anyway? I know the doc's dead, I'm dead now that the mob knows who I am.

That's why I said you blew it, because with your paranoia and badgering tactics, you've forced me to reveal myself. I've tried to play the game but I've never been a cop so I have no idea whether there's supposed to be a "right" way for me to play.

I played the way I thought I should. If you don't like it, too bad, tough luck.

Joshua Adams · #**618** 08-16-2006, 05:38 PM

What are you talking abotu, TomJoe? It's not good to let the town lynch the cop, because then they have a chance of lynching someone else who may be mafia, AND the cop can share what little information they have obtained.

TomJoe · #**619** 08-16-2006, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cappuccino

What the hell do you expect me to do? I'm on the verge of being lynched, I'm not supposed to come out anyway? I know the doc's dead, I'm dead now that the mob knows who I am.

That's why I said you blew it, because with your paranoia and badgering tactics, you've forced me to reveal myself.

No, wrong. If you were really the cop, you'd ride out the storm, knowing that you had no backup, and that second look is very important. Instead, knowing if you outed yourself, you'd be killed regardless ... you did it. It's a stupid move, and you know it. You've done it because you're mafia, and you want to cast doubt, but also in an attempt to get the real cop to speak up. At this point, I think a cop/mafia trade (with your head already on the chopping block) probably looks mighty good to the mafia.

Guilty.

balluga · #**620** 08-16-2006, 05:41 PM

vote cappuccino After a brief pause to look over the situation, I dont think that capp is the cop. The cop wouldnt do something like that, it is not in the towns best interest. Outing only one person does nothing for the town, as the cop will be killed by mafia, and the innocent will be killed by the traitor, leaving the town at square one. I think that the vig sould think about targeting either capp or lees tonight, if either of them survive tonight.

Joshua Adams · #**621** 08-16-2006, 05:42 PM

I think it's very stupid play for the mafia to lie about being the cop. Suppose they pull it off and we lynch someone else. We'll find out we've been fooled tomorrow morning when he's still alive. It just doesn't make any sense to lynch capp today. Even if he IS scum, we can kill him just as well tomorrow. The mafia don't get any disadvantage by losing one of their number.

cappuccino · #**622** 08-16-2006, 05:43 PM

Hello? Pick up the clue phone. If you had lynched me, then I won't be able to get the second look at all. So one way or another, I'm dead anyway because I would have been lynched by tonight.

Fine, kill me, whatever you want to. I give up, you'd gladly put the noose around the cop's neck. So that doesn't bode good for the town.

Sock Puppet · #**623** 08-16-2006, 05:44 PM

If capp is mob, he won't die tonight (unless the vigilante kills him; I think the vig should hold off). Then we'll know for certain and we can lynch him tomorrow. The only downside of taking him at his word is that if he or Lees is the traitor, the bad guys will get their extra kill. I'm inclined to believe him, at least provisionally, in that so many cop tells are easily mistaken for scum tells. There are also 2 other baddies out there we could lynch today, if he and Lees are really scum/traitor.

[edit-Dammit Joshua, get out of my head.]

TomJoe · #**624** 08-16-2006, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joshua Adams

I think it's very stupid play for the mafia to lie about being the cop. Suppose they pull it off and we lynch someone else. We'll find out we've been fooled tomorrow morning when he's still alive. It just doesn't make any sense to lynch capp today. Even if he IS scum, we can kill him just as well tomorrow. The mafia don't get any disadvantage by losing one of their number.

Which is why claiming to be the cop is a good move on their part, if they can get the real cop to reveal to prove them wrong. If the mafia claim it and survive, sure ... they'll be out'd tomorrow, but it's one more day they've had a chance to make an extra kill ... why we most likely lynch a townie. It puts us down by 2.

TomJoe · #**625** 08-16-2006, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cappuccino

Fine, kill me, whatever you want to. I give up, you'd gladly put the noose around the cop's neck. So that doesn't bode good for the town.

Works for me. Are we one away?

If capp is the cop, I'll gladly place my head on the chopping block tomorrow. I can say that because I'm confident he's mob.