Winnie the Flu

[Miisa]

Ok, I made my own chart, and based on Italy's numbers, the US could expect 1000 deaths around March 23

[ceptimus]

Spain COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
2	2	03-04	-
4+	8	03-06	2
8+	8	03-06	0
16+	17	03-08	2
32+	36	03-10	2
64+	84	03-12	2
128+	133	03-13	1
256+	289	03-15	2

[ChuckF]

Originally Posted by ceptimus

The reason I'm tracking deaths rather than cases, is that I expect the death count to be more reliable.

Of course, countries may choose to record deaths as being due to heart attacks or whatever - when COVID-19 was the real cause, but I think that's less likely than just saying there are only ten thousand known active cases, when there are really a hundred thousand or more.

In the absence of widespread random testing, the number of reported cases is always likely to be unreliable - and the errors will differ greatly between countries, depending on their testing regimes.

I don't know that deaths are necessarily more reliable. COVID-19 deaths would be reported where a COVID-19 case being tracked by health authorities dies. If a person is not being tracked, but they die of some sort of pneumonia or influenza, that could well be a COVID-19 death attributed to some other cause, especially in complex patients with comorbidities.

I get what you mean though. The slope of the death curve should be suggestive of the slope of the infection curve, at least as a trailing indicator.

[ceptimus]

Originally Posted by ChuckF

I don't know that deaths are necessarily more reliable. COVID-19 deaths would be reported where a COVID-19 case being tracked by health authorities dies.

I'm hoping that when a patient comes into a hospital now, and the diagnosis is acute bilateral interstitial pneumonia, then if and when that patient dies any doctor recording the cause of death will have COVID-19 at the top of their list of most likely causes.

If a person dies before testing - and before being admitted to a hospital, then an autopsy would reveal the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

The hospitals and morgues may become so overloaded that recording cause of death is no longer a priority. If and when we reach that dire situation, then just the increase in the number of deaths compared to a normal similar time period should give a rough estimate of the COVID-19 death count.

[slimshady2357]

UK deaths now at 35.

UPDATE on coronavirus (#COVID19) testing in the UK:
As of 9am on 15 March, a total of 40,279 have been tested:
38,907 negative
1,372 positive

Across the UK, 35 patients who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have sadly died. pic.twitter.com/ElnkxRnbJC

— Department of Health and Social Care (@DHSCgovuk) March 15, 2020

So that took 1 day to get the next doubling recorded...

[JoeP]

UK COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
3	3	03-08	-
6+	6	03-10	2
12+	21	03-14	4
24+	35	03-15	1
48+

[JoeP]

Originally Posted by ceptimus

Of course, countries may choose to record deaths as being due to heart attacks or whatever - when COVID-19 was the real cause, but I think that's less likely than just saying there are only ten thousand known active cases, when there are really a hundred thousand or more.

It's still a better measure than confirmed cases ... but at some point there are going to be deaths (from stroke, heart attack, accidents, etc) which had no covid-19 infection involved - but could not be treated as well as normal because of unavailability of ICU. Those won't be included but I kind of think they should be.

[JoeP]

Originally Posted by Miisa

Based on the chart someone put up on reddit (I cannot verify if it is accurate), it seems the US infection rate is on par with Italy's a couple of weeks ago. So maybe the US has kept the death rate very low (Italy's is shockingly high compared to other European countries) or the death rate starts rising with a delay?

The graphs of China's and South Korea's flattening curves are quite similar.

* JoeP goes off to find them

[Miisa]

I continued my chart on google sheets with the UK (and Finland because I care). I was going to offer a link because I know you love spreadsheets and updating them.

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

This Nena cover really sucks https://t.co/4DZkRz0LGo

— FloorMethHat (@Popehat) March 15, 2020

[ceptimus]

Italy COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
3	3	02-23	-
6+	7	02-24	1
12+	12	02-26	2
24+	29	02-29	3
48+	52	03-02	3
100+	107	03-04	2
200+	233	03-07	3
400+	463	03-09	2
800+	827	03-11	2
1600+	1809	03-15	4

[LarsMac]

So the rest of the world has now caught up to China in total cases.
162 K total, China 81 K

[ceptimus]

France COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
3+	3	03-02	-
6+	7	03-05	3
12+	16	03-07	2
24+	30	03-09	2
48+	48	03-11	2
100+	127	03-15	4

[erimir]

Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world, and the US is younger than most European countries.

So you would expect Italy to have a higher mortality rate if the virus spread to exact same percentage of the population. So that's probably a fair part of the difference - the high risk population is smaller as a percentage of the population in the US. There are 50% more elderly (65+) people per capita in Italy than in the US.

It's also the case that the US hasn't had many hospitals overloaded yet, at which point the mortality rate would go up. There are many cases in the US, but they're perhaps not as concentrated geographically as they are in Italy.

[SR71]

Originally Posted by Miisa

Ok, I made my own chart, and based on Italy's numbers, the US could expect 1000 deaths around March 23

[specious_reasons]

Originally Posted by erimir

Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world, and the US is younger than most European countries.

So you would expect Italy to have a higher mortality rate if the virus spread to exact same percentage of the population. So that's probably a fair part of the difference - the high risk population is smaller as a percentage of the population in the US. There are 50% more elderly (65+) people per capita in Italy than in the US.

It's also the case that the US hasn't had many hospitals overloaded yet, at which point the mortality rate would go up. There are many cases in the US, but they're perhaps not as concentrated geographically as they are in Italy.

A large number of the initial deaths in the US was due to the infection spreading in a nursing home in Kirkland, WA. This is one of the reason why the Seattle area shut down so fast - a lot of the deaths occurred here and it wasn't obvious how the infection spread to this facility.

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Originally Posted by Kamilah Hauptmann

Honest American merchant crushed under the heal of notorious communist *squints at article* Jeff Bezos.*

He Has 17,700 Bottles of Hand Sanitizer and Nowhere to Sell Them

*yeah, lolno. Just because Bezos is Jabba the Hut doesn't mean he wants his personal bread basket to turn into Mos Eisley Craigslist.

Not sure if the supplies are going into an evidence locker rather than a church.

Matt’s website looks a lot different this morning after @TNattygen ordered he and his brother to stop buying and selling.
We have reached out to Matt to see when and where the donation is taking place. We have not heard back. @WRCB https://t.co/xbbJhJO4lV pic.twitter.com/XKOfA8HL8b

— Hunter Hoagland (@HunterHoagland) March 15, 2020

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

More info.

JUST IN: Office of @TNattygen says the stockpiled medical goods were taken to a local church where they’ll be spread throughout the community & a portion of the sanitizer will go to KY where the brothers cleared shelves. Colvin says he was willing to donate. @WRCB https://t.co/sI8IIiZM87 pic.twitter.com/T5Vhqtevke

— Hunter Hoagland (@HunterHoagland) March 15, 2020

That reporter is following the story if y’all interested.

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Apparently the hospitals ICU valve supplier was not happy about this & refused to supply blueprints. Insane. https://t.co/9T3yYXk8og https://t.co/5wKkuPLQma

— michal Naka (@michalnaka) March 15, 2020

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

The HAIL SATAN guide to this virus.

[Stormlight]

77 infections now here. Still 1 death (a 94 year old man).

Schools, non-essential shops, restaurants, bars all closed now.

[mickthinks]

Germany COVID-19 total deaths : doubling days
Target	Actual	Date	Days
3	3	03-12	-
6	8	03-13	1
12	13	03-16	3

[Dragar]

Originally Posted by erimir

Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world, and the US is younger than most European countries.

So you would expect Italy to have a higher mortality rate if the virus spread to exact same percentage of the population. So that's probably a fair part of the difference - the high risk population is smaller as a percentage of the population in the US. There are 50% more elderly (65+) people per capita in Italy than in the US.

It's also the case that the US hasn't had many hospitals overloaded yet, at which point the mortality rate would go up. There are many cases in the US, but they're perhaps not as concentrated geographically as they are in Italy.

It's not just older - the better healthcare system, the more people with severe illness are still alive. It's just this correlates very heavily with age. Given this illness only rarely is fatal to healthy individuals, there's a really weird skew to the figures.

[ceptimus]

[LarsMac]

Here is something that should ease your fears of seeing the thing spread, ...
International arrivals at O'Hare being rapidly and efficiently screened for COVID-19

Feel better now?

Coronavirus: US airports in disarray over screening - BBC News